Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,704,899 KM2 as at 16-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 293k, 77 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 216k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8.16 million km2, 0.11 million km2, (1%) less than the 10 year average of 8.27 million km2.
- Extent is at position #31 in the satellite record of which 17 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,824 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,425 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,425 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,578 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  295 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 52.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 67 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 3.25 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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The first impressive sea ice extent loss this month
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,453,614 KM2 as at 17-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 251k, 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 264k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8.41 million km2, 0.11 million km2, (1%) less than the 10 year average of 8.52 million km2.
- Extent is at position #31 in the satellite record of which 17 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,768 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,380 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,601 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,504 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  312 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 54.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 66 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 3.27 million km2, 1.12 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data
Antarctic Sea Ice extent still very much above average, with area and concentration below average.

The various seas show different metrics and are show in the following posts. Map attached for your delectation.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data - BellingHausen & Amundsen Seas

Sea ice area and extent are both very much above the 2010's average, extent being 4th HIGHEST in the satellite record.

This may well be about melting of the PIG and Thwaite's glaciers - a sort of preview of a major freshwater hosing event?

NSIDC Data - Ross Sea

Sea ice area and extent are both  BELOW the 2010's average .

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data - West Pacific Ocean Area

Both area and extent are somewhat below the 2010's average
This is the part of the East Antarctica Ice Sheet that is losing mass, and if anything, I would have expected to see freshwater from the melting ice sheet increasing sea ice.

NSIDC Data - Indian Ocean Area

Both area and extent are well above #the 2010's average

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data - Weddell Sea

By far the largest sea ice extent and area, and the only one with the contrast between extent and area, i.e.
- Extent is well above the 2010's average,
- Area is well below the 2010's average,

Concentration very low.

Not a clue for why.

EDIT - Whoops Corrected graph attached

[The Walrus]

Very nice graphs gerontocrat.  Looking at the long-term trends, the following generalizations can be made:

Bellinghausen and Admundsen sea ice has been decreasing since the 1980s.

West Pacific and Weddell sea ice has been increasing since the 1980s.

Ross sea ice appeared steady for most of the timeframe, but has decreased in the past decade.

Indian sea ice has shown little change over the entire time period.

[paolo]

.......
This may well be about melting of the PIG and Thwaite's glaciers - a sort of preview of a major freshwater hosing event?
........

I'm thinking more of adverse weather conditions in the Amundsen sea. Indeed, this year, at least as far as the PIG is concerned, there was practically no formation of polynyas and the sea is always frozen in front of the PIG (which is not in the norm). This seems to me to indicate that this summer and autumn the outgoing current, that is to say the current which, flowing under the ice shelf melts it, was not very strong and that therefore also the incoming current, the warm CDW current which comes in along the seabed until it reaches the grounding line with a massive melting at this level, was not very strong either. So, at least for the PIG, the melting does not seem exceptional.

ADD : At the limit, this could be partly a consequence of the February calving.
On the other hand the statistics are for the BellingHausen & Amundsen Seas and not only for the Amundsen Sea.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,182,976 KM2 as at 18-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 271k, 15 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 256k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8.68 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (1%) less than the 10 year average of 8.76 million km2.
- Extent is at position #31 in the satellite record of which 17 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,654 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,299 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,635 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,437 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  298 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 55.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 65 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 3.25 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,913,692 KM2 as at 19-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 269k, 84 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 185k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8.95 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (0%) less than the 10 year average of 8.93 million km2.
- Extent is at position #31 in the satellite record of which 17 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,600 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,216 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,630 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,439 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  302 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 57.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 64 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 3.17 million km2, 1.02 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,639,088 KM2 as at 20-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 275k, 47 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 228k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.22 million km2, 0.07 million km2, (1%) less than the 10 year average of 9.15 million km2.
- Extent is at position #29 in the satellite record of which 17 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,489 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,168 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,642 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,425 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  254 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 58.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 63 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 3.12 million km2, 0.98 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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Very high sea ice loss on this day changes sea ice extent from 31st to 29th lowest in the 42 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,774,185 KM2 as at 23-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 308k, 84 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 224k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10.09 million km2, 0.29 million km2, (3%) MORE than the 10 year average of 9.80 million km2.
- Extent is at position #25 in the satellite record of which 14 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,073 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  941 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,696 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,354 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  39 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 62.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 60 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.96 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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For a change a few days of well above average sea ice extent losses results in extent moving up from 31st lowest to 25th lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA data - a bit more

The 365 day trailing average is still powering upwards to the lone-term average value.

Lokking at the plume of forward projections based on previous years' extent gains, you will see that in three of the last four years extent losses have been very low, pointing to a high value for the Feb 2021 minimum.
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click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,480,490 KM2 as at 24-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 294k, 25 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 269k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10.38 million km2, 0.32 million km2, (3%) more than the 10 year average of 10.06 million km2.
- Extent is at position #22 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,039 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  836 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,705 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,275 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  51 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 64.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 59 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.93 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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On this day very high extent loss moves extent from 25th to 22nd lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,110,738 KM2 as at 25-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 370k, 134 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 236k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10.75 million km2, 0.46 million km2, (4%) more than the 10 year average of 10.30 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,825 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  630 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,633 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,068 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  155 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 66.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 58 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.80 million km2, 0.65 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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The very high extent loss on this day moves extent from 22nd to 19th lowest , i.e. now in the top half of the 42 year satellite record. In the last 7 days these above average extent losses have changed extent from 31st to 19th lowest,

A 370k daily extent loss is unusual but not unique at this time of year. In the last 17 years there have been 11 instances of daily extent losses in excess of 370k.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[FredBear]

Yesterday's "2000's table" showed 1 daily extent within striking distance - that has been left way behind today!
No close targets now but if losses stay high some more are likely to be passed   .     .     .

From a high extent of 18.86 million km2 on 15 Sept - (position 33/41 in satellite record, position 16/21 since 2000 in gerontocrat's records) a slow start to melting ran up to positions of 35/41 and 18/21 by 19 Nov., now down to positions 19/41 and 9/21 with the recent melt.

I was concerned (reply 1595, December 13) that the concentration graph might be warning that high melt might be approaching - I am wondering what that graph is now saying in comparison with previous years    .    .    . (if concentration is still relatively low it may indicate that high melt could continue).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,780,882 KM2 as at 26-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 330k, 144 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 186k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 11.08 million km2, 0.60 million km2, (6%) more than the 10 year average of 10.49 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,649 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  469 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,521 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  877 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  233 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 67.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 57 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.65 million km2, 0.51 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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The 2nd very high extent loss on this day moves extent from 19th to 17th lowest , i.e. now well in the top half of the 42 year satellite record. In the last 8 days these above average extent losses have changed extent from 31st to 17th lowest,

Two successive days of 300k daily extent loss is unusual but not unique at this time of year. In Dec 2011 there were two instances of two successive days of 400k+ daily losses.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

I was concerned (reply 1595, December 13) that the concentration graph might be warning that high melt might be approaching - I am wondering what that graph is now saying in comparison with previous years    .    .    . (if concentration is still relatively low it may indicate that high melt could continue).

Concentration graphs attached

[gerontocrat]

Rest of the concentration graphs

[gerontocrat]

And some more Antarctic Sea Ice Area graphs from NSIDC data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,496,270 KM2 as at 27-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 285k, 94 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 191k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 11.36 million km2, 0.67 million km2, (6%) more than the 10 year average of 10.70 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,508 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  362 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,431 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  707 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  270 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 68.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 56 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.56 million km2, 0.41 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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The recent impressive run of sea ice extent losses continues. Extent on this day up from 17th to 16th lowest.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Graphs from NSIDC Data

+ image from Univ Bremen

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,227,329 KM2 as at 28-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 269k, 89 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 180k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 11.63 million km2, 0.74 million km2, (7%) more than the 10 year average of 10.89 million km2.
- Extent is at position #15 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,336 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  274 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,319 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  573 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  375 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 69.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 55 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.47 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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Again, the recent impressive run of sea ice extent losses continues. Extent on this day up from 16th to 15th lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,066,841 KM2 as at 29-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 160k, 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 188k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 11.79 million km2, 0.69 million km2, (6%) more than the 10 year average of 11.10 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,254 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  288 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,306 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  547 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  381 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 70.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 54 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.50 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,919,571 KM2 as at 30-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 147k, 46 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 193k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 11.94 million km2, 0.61 million km2, (5%) more than the 10 year average of 11.33 million km2.
- Extent is at position #15 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,232 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  301 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,302 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  562 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  355 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 72.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 53 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.54 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,750,425 KM2 as at 31-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 169k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 173k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.11 million km2, 0.60 million km2, (5%) more than the 10 year average of 11.51 million km2.
- Extent is at position #15 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,193 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  262 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,327 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  537 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  349 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 73.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 52 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.55 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA Data - a bit more

The December Monthly Average of 10.51 million km2 is 192k above the utterly meaningless**  trend value for this year. More simply put, The December Monthly Average is well above the average Dec value for the last 42 years.

The 365 Day trailing Average also continues its strong upward trend.
________________
** R² vakue is 0.00

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,568,300 KM2 as at 01-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 182k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 173k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.29 million km2, 0.34 million km2, (3%) more than the 10 year average of 11.95 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 17 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  374 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,194 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  217 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,305 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  203 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 74.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 51 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.54 million km2, 0.39 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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X fingers that the change of year worked OK
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,451,907 KM2 as at 02-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 116k, 42 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 158k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.41 million km2, 0.30 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.11 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 11 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  244 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,228 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  262 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,336 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  142 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 75.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 50 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.58 million km2, 0.43 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,325,097 KM2 as at 03-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 127k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 131k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.54 million km2, 0.30 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.24 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 11 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,770 k LESS than 2014
- Extent is  1,176 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  893 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  1,347 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  101 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 76.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 49 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.58 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,181,009 KM2 as at 04-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 144k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 151k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.68 million km2, 0.29 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.39 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,694 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,142 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  937 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  445 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  76 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 77.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 48 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.59 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,041,155 KM2 as at 05-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 140k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 141k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.82 million km2, 0.29 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.53 million km2.
- Extent is at position #20 in the satellite record of which 9 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,688 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,072 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  979 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  399 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  48 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 78.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 47 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.59 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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Slightly below average daily sea ice extent losses means extent drifted out from 15th to 20th lowest in the last few days
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,905,331 KM2 as at 06-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 136k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 127k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.96 million km2, 0.30 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.66 million km2.
- Extent is at position #22 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,680 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  979 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,030 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  382 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  4 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 79.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 46 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.58 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,797,175 KM2 as at 07-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 108k, 39 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 147k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.06 million km2, 0.26 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.81 million km2.
- Extent is at position #22 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,626 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  966 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,075 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  434 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  70 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 80.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 45 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.62 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,631,825 KM2 as at 08-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 165k, 16 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 149k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.23 million km2, 0.28 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.95 million km2.
- Extent is at position #22 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,658 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  900 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,048 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  403 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  73 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 81.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 44 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.61 million km2, 0.46 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

How Global Warming can increase sea ice extent.

https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/1/2021/
Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat

Abstract
Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large-cavity ice shelves is not included in current Earth System models and may be a driver of this phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of Antarctic sea ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability.

Our record, supported by high-resolution ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (∼ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth that slowed basal ice shelf melting. Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,526,691 KM2 as at 09-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 105k, 44 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 149k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.33 million km2, 0.23 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 13.10 million km2.
- Extent is at position #23 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,585 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  913 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,062 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  399 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  119 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 82.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 43 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.65 million km2, 0.50 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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Persistent somewhat below average extent losses in 2021 has resulted in sea ice extent going from 16th to 23rd lowest in the satellite record over the first 9 days of this year.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,405,365 KM2 as at 10-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 121k, 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 134k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.46 million km2, 0.22 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 13.24 million km2.
- Extent is at position #23 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,533 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  888 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,046 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  417 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  130 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 82.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 42 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.66 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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Another stunningly pretty average day.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Jaxa Data - a bit more

Antarctic Sea Ice - How average can it get?

The plume shows the erratic nature of extent change over the years.

I attach the graph of the current estimate of the January monthly average. As you can see, the linear change trend is an enormously SMALL 811 Km2 gain per year with an R² value of 0.00. At 4.7 million the average would be about 200k below that meaningless trend, or more meaningfully about 200k below the 42 year January average.

Meanwhile, the 365 day trailing average is going up - and possibly in around 2 months will reach the 42 year average of 11.6 million km2.

After 42 years of ups and downs one ends up back where one started, But AGW has happened, the AIS is losing mass. But Antarctic sea ice extent does not seem to be a nice simple metric on which to track the impact of AGW.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,295,932 KM2 as at 11-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 109k, 50 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 159k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.57 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.40 million km2.
- Extent is at position #23 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,488 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,029 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,044 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  456 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  143 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 83.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 41 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.71 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,174,023 KM2 as at 12-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 122k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 136k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.69 million km2, 0.15 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.53 million km2.
- Extent is at position #25 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,455 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,073 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,027 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  459 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  141 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 84.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 40 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.73 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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And yet another lower than average extent loss pushes extent from 23rd to 25th lowest in the 43 year satellite record
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,017,795 KM2 as at 13-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 156k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 138k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.84 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.67 million km2.
- Extent is at position #24 in the satellite record of which 11 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,422 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,068 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  953 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  440 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  117 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 85.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 39 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.71 million km2, 0.56 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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For a change an above average extent loss and extent up one place from 25th to 24th lowest.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,910,659 KM2 as at 14-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 107k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 138k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.95 million km2, 0.14 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.81 million km2.
- Extent is at position #25 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,386 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,127 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  949 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  430 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  133 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 86.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 38 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.74 million km2, 0.59 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,805,669 KM2 as at 15-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 105k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 130k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.06 million km2, 0.12 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.94 million km2.
- Extent is at position #26 in the satellite record of which 13 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,347 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,166 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  955 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  407 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  154 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 87.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 37 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.76 million km2, 0.62 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,701,823 KM2 as at 16-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 104k, 16 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 120k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.16 million km2, 0.10 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.06 million km2.
- Extent is at position #26 in the satellite record of which 13 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,307 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,187 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  953 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  399 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  119 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 88.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 36 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.78 million km2, 0.63 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,585,657 KM2 as at 17-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 116k, 6 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 122k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.28 million km2, 0.09 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.18 million km2.
- Extent is at position #26 in the satellite record of which 13 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,221 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,175 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  917 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  384 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  104 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 88.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 35 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.79 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,455,243 KM2 as at 18-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 130k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 134k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.41 million km2, 0.09 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.31 million km2.
- Extent is at position #25 in the satellite record of which 13 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,083 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,142 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  890 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  358 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  61 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 89.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 34 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.79 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,293,475 KM2 as at 19-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 162k, 36 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 126k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.57 million km2, 0.13 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.44 million km2.
- Extent is at position #22 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,927 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,056 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  825 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  286 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  14 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 90.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 33 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.75 million km2, 0.61 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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For a change, daily extent loss greater than average, and extent moves up from 25th to 22nd lowest, slap bang in the middle of the 43 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,151,330 KM2 as at 20-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 142k, 41 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 101k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.71 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,852 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  989 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  773 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  237 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  70 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 91.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 32 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.71 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A second day of above average sea ice loss moves extent from 22nd to 18th lowest in the 43 year satellite record. Also shows how tightly the Antarctic sea ice extent peloton is grouped as just 2 days of above average ice loss moved extent from 25th to 18th lowest.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data

There is a big contrast between sea ice AREA and sea ice EXTENT.

Extent is currently 18th lowest (as for JAXA data).
Area is currently 7th lowest.

Concentration is currently 3rd lowest. That low concentration seems most pronounced in the Ross Sea.