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Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1650 on: January 21, 2021, 09:08:10 PM »
The big question for me is: will the lower concentration enhance further melting and decay which then leads to larger than average reductions in extent as long as the melting season continues (4-5 weeks)?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

FredBear

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1651 on: January 22, 2021, 12:49:51 AM »
Thanks gerontocrat - I nearly asked how the concentration was going the other day with the succession of slightly low extent losses after the high losses towards the maximum rate period.
The extent values had climbed back to position 26 (sat. record) and 13 (out of the 22 years since 2000) from 15 & 7 on 31 December.
The next 4 extent positions in the last 22 years are all less than 280k ahead of this year now (the following one is a bigger challenge at 566k) with about 32 days to minimum.
I think the low concentration should create higher than average extent losses while it continues - but I would have been wrong in the past 3 weeks! Likely to be a fairly average year?
On the other hand the concentration graphs have a broad distribution until about 20th March so we could be in for interesting times and the time of the minimum might be late.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1652 on: January 22, 2021, 11:12:15 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,060,220 KM2 as at 21-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 91k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.80 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.64 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,743 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  998 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  735 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  182 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  75 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 91.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 31 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1653 on: January 23, 2021, 11:55:41 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,970,431 KM2 as at 22-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 90k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.89 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.73 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,588 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  989 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  709 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  142 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  80 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 92.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 30 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1654 on: January 24, 2021, 01:23:05 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,843,787 KM2 as at 23-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 127k, 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.02 million km2, 0.21 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.81 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,508 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  919 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  651 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  69 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  129 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 92.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 29 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.67 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1655 on: January 25, 2021, 12:16:49 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,763,356 KM2 as at 24-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 80k, 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.10 million km2, 0.22 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 14.87 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,439 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  922 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  620 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  51 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  133 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 93.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 28 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.66 million km2, 0.51 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1656 on: January 26, 2021, 11:11:57 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,717,861 KM2 as at 25-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 45k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.14 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.95 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,324 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  957 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  622 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  53 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  117 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 93.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 27 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.68 million km2, 0.54 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1657 on: January 27, 2021, 11:52:28 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,644,654 KM2 as at 26-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 73k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 74k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.22 million km2, 0.19 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.02 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 6 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,289 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  938 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  611 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  38 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  135 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 94.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 26 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.68 million km2, 0.54 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Despite only an average sea ice extent loss on this day, extent moves up one place to 16th lowest in the satellite record, which is the highest place since January 1.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1658 on: January 28, 2021, 12:11:50 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,565,541 KM2 as at 27-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 73k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.30 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.09 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 6 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,272 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  938 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  587 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  34 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  153 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 94.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 25 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.68 million km2, 0.53 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1659 on: January 28, 2021, 12:26:14 PM »
JAXA Antarctic Data - a bit more

Now extent is getting close to the minimum, one can have a look to see if the current extent is already less than the minimum in some previous years. The answer is yes- in 3 previous years.

Hence the attached table - that does need a click to make it readable to these old eyes, and a second click for full-size.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1660 on: January 29, 2021, 11:33:10 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,497,532 KM2 as at 28-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 68k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.36 million km2, 0.21 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.15 million km2.
- Extent is at position #15 in the satellite record of which 5 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,241 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  943 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  556 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  25 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  155 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 94.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 24 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.67 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Only slightly above average extent loss but extent up another place to 15th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1661 on: January 29, 2021, 11:39:41 AM »
JAXA Antarctic Data - a bit more

Another look to see the number of years the current extent is already less than the minimum in previous years. The answer is - in 6 previous years all in the current century.

Hence the attached table - that does need a click to make it readable to these old eyes, and a second click for full-size.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1662 on: January 30, 2021, 11:26:05 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,495,356 KM2 as at 29-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 2k, 54 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.37 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.21 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 6 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,162 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  991 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  610 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  74 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  95 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 95.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 23 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.73 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Extent loss stalled on this day and extent slipped down one place to 16th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1663 on: January 31, 2021, 01:46:45 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,496,435 KM2 as at 30-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 1k, 59 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.36 million km2, 0.09 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.27 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,083 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,028 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  664 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  100 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  41 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 95.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 22 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.79 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Extent loss stalled for a 2nd day and extent slipped down another 2 places to 18th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1664 on: February 02, 2021, 10:57:40 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,413,218 KM2 as at 01-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 11 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.45 million km2, 0.09 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.36 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 9 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,094 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  991 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  703 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  131 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  28 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 96.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 20 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.79 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Yesterday I couldn't access the JAXA site - but didn't miss much. Extent dropped one place to 19th and extent loss was below average. On this day an above average extent loss
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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FredBear

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1665 on: February 02, 2021, 12:04:40 PM »
Heading for an average sort of year    .    .    .

Small (if you can see them on Worldview are they really small?) areas of fast ice are still breaking away from Antarctica but in the next few days any open water towards the southern edges of the continent will begin freezing back. It's a bit like watching white paint drying, with a new coat being added every winter   .   .   .

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1666 on: February 02, 2021, 12:12:24 PM »
JAXA Data - a bit more

I attach the monthly average graph for January. The Jan 21 average, at 4.77 million km2, is 175k below the linear trend value, and 22nd lowest, i.e. exactly half way down or up the 43 year satellite record. The linear trend is value is  +948 km2 per annum with a R2 value of 0.00, i.e. just about meaningless.

I also attach the 365 day trailing average graph. The current average is just 52k less than the 42 year long-term average of 11.61 million km2 and is still going up.

So after the huge extent increase in 2014-15 and the even larger drop in 2016-17, we end up back where we started in 1979. And what next? I don't know, and I have a feeling the climate scientists don't know either.

click an image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1667 on: February 03, 2021, 10:26:45 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,348,850 KM2 as at 02-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 64k, 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.51 million km2, 0.10 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.41 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,096 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  959 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  684 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  121 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  48 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 96.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 19 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.78 million km2, 0.63 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1668 on: February 04, 2021, 10:20:45 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,283,136 KM2 as at 03-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 66k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.58 million km2, 0.12 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.46 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,093 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  901 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  633 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  111 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  65 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 96.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 18 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.76 million km2, 0.61 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1669 on: February 05, 2021, 12:29:33 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,239,716 KM2 as at 04-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 43k, 5 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.62 million km2, 0.12 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.51 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,043 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  867 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  607 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  93 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  61 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 97.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 17 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.76 million km2, 0.62 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Despite a slightly lower than average extent loss, extent went up one place to 18th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1670 on: February 05, 2021, 12:35:56 PM »
I attach the table showing the current extent value aginst the minima of previous years. After a few days of no change, the current extent value has crwled up one more place to 35th lowest of the 43 years of the satellite record.

click image to enlarge and click again for full size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1671 on: February 06, 2021, 11:43:05 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,199,429 KM2 as at 05-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 40k, 6 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.66 million km2, 0.11 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.55 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  955 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  843 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  575 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  66 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  58 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 97.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 16 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.77 million km2, 0.62 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2021, 03:16:29 PM by gerontocrat »
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colchonero

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1672 on: February 06, 2021, 03:03:52 PM »
Both losses not gains (today and average) geronto 8) ;)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1673 on: February 06, 2021, 04:49:09 PM »
Both losses not gains (today and average) geronto 8) ;)
Not with it today - posted the blurb for the freezing season.
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1674 on: February 07, 2021, 12:51:34 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,166,871 KM2 as at 06-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 33k, 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.69 million km2, 0.10 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.59 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  887 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  814 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  565 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  77 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  41 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 97.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 15 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.78 million km2, 0.63 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1675 on: February 08, 2021, 11:22:53 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,147,801 KM2 as at 07-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 19k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.71 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (0%) more than the 10 year average of 15.64 million km2.
- Extent is at position #21 in the satellite record of which 9 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  818 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  793 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  584 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  106 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  11 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 97.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 14 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.80 million km2, 0.66 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Sea ice extent losses a bit below average in the last two days and extent drops 3 places from 18th to 21st lowest in those two days. The peloton of extents is so closely packed so a small variation has consequences..
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1676 on: February 10, 2021, 11:59:21 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,057,351 KM2 as at 09-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 65k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.80 million km2, 0.10 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.71 million km2.
- Extent is at position #20 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  805 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  778 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  525 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  84 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  18 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 98.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 12 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.78 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1677 on: February 10, 2021, 12:07:20 PM »
Once again, I attach the table showing the current extent value aginst the minima of previous years. After a few days of no change, the current extent value has reduced enough to crawl up one more place to 33rd lowest of the 43 years of the satellite record.

3 more years are close to being overtaken.

click image to enlarge and click again for full size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1678 on: February 11, 2021, 01:12:06 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,021,349 KM2 as at 10-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 36k, 5 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.84 million km2, 0.10 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.74 million km2.
- Extent is at position #20 in the satellite record of which 9 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  786 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  766 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  501 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  57 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  13 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 98.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 11 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.78 million km2, 0.63 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1679 on: February 11, 2021, 07:33:52 PM »
As I forecast in reply 1665 new ice is forming in the southeast Weddell Sea and is being draped along the edges of the ice floes in the area by the winds. This will reduce the already shrinking daily net losses of extent. The image is from Worldview on 3rd February.

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1680 on: February 12, 2021, 11:42:27 AM »
As I forecast in reply 1665 new ice is forming in the southeast Weddell Sea and is being draped along the edges of the ice floes in the area by the winds. This will reduce the already shrinking daily net losses of extent.
And of course just to confuse overall Antarctic sea ice losses accelerate in the last 3 days.

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,969,896 KM2 as at 11-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 19 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.89 million km2, 0.12 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.77 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  788 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  733 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  462 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  16 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  23 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 98.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 10 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.76 million km2, 0.61 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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FredBear

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1681 on: February 12, 2021, 12:36:16 PM »
Hi gerontocrat, you score again (it was that dodgy reading 4 days ago that gave you that run!).
The build-up starts slowly down south before spreading north   .    .    .  (but where would the numbers be without all that re-forming ice every year    .    .    .    ?)
BTW position 10 (2020) in your fourth chart looks very vulnerable now   .    .    .

Seriously though, the end is nigh for this melting season but there is room for little wobbles in the numbers.

I like your summary in reply 1666 (2nd February):-

"So after the huge extent increase in 2014-15 and the even larger drop in 2016-17, we end up back where we started in 1979. And what next? I don't know, and I have a feeling the climate scientists don't know either."
« Last Edit: February 12, 2021, 12:50:33 PM by FredBear »

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1682 on: February 12, 2021, 04:09:07 PM »
And yet again, I attach the table showing the current minimum extent value against the minima of previous years. A high extent loss on this day reduces the current extent value enough to cause extent to race up 3 more places to 30th lowest of the 43 years of the satellite record.

And talking about returning to the average, I wonder if there will enough ice loss to put extent into 22nd place in the 43 year satellite record, i.e. 21 years with extent higher, 21 years with extent lower.

click image to enlarge and click again for full size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1683 on: February 13, 2021, 03:34:11 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,910,177 KM2 as at 12-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 60k, 30 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.95 million km2, 0.15 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.80 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  811 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  683 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  407 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  34 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  48 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 98.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 9 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.73 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
4 days of above average extent losses sees extent going up from 23rd to 17th lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1684 on: February 14, 2021, 01:50:18 PM »
Blurb during Melting Season
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,878,402 KM2 as at 13-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 32k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.98 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.83 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  822 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  656 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  383 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  52 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  47 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 8 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.72 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1685 on: February 15, 2021, 01:16:25 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,853,984 KM2 as at 14-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 27k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 16.01 million km2, 0.15 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.85 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  814 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  627 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  360 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  42 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  40 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 7 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.73 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1686 on: February 15, 2021, 03:03:33 PM »
JAXA Data - a bit more

The increase in the 365 day trailing average towards the long-term average of 11.61 million km2 has stalled at 15.56 million km2. So my fantasy of a 2021 365 day trailing average at exactly the 42 year average is at least postponed, if not cancelled.
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1687 on: February 16, 2021, 01:03:05 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,850,023 KM2 as at 15-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 4k, 17 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 16.01 million km2, 0.14 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.88 million km2.
- Extent is at position #20 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  792 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  619 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  355 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  19 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  21 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 6 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.74 million km2, 0.60 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A minimal sea ice extent loss on this day sends extent down another place from 19th to 2oth lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1688 on: February 17, 2021, 03:04:09 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,879,640 KM2 as at 16-Feb-2021

- Extent GAIN on this day 30k, 54 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.98 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.90 million km2.
- Extent is at position #26 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  750 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  648 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  410 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  52 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  29 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 5 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.80 million km2, 0.65 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
The extent gain on this day sends extent from 20th to 26th lowest in the satellite record.
Could be an early end to the melting season
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1689 on: February 18, 2021, 01:42:22 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,872,147 KM2 as at 17-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 30k, 11 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.99 million km2, 0.07 million km2, (0%) more than the 10 year average of 15.92 million km2.
- Extent is at position #28 in the satellite record of which 14 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  727 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  647 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  407 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  75 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  34 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 4 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.81 million km2, 0.66 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A lower than average extent loss after the extent gain the previous days and on this dat extent slips down two more places to 28th lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1690 on: February 19, 2021, 09:40:33 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,851,560 KM2 as at 18-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 21k, 11 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 16.01 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.93 million km2.
- Extent is at position #27 in the satellite record of which 13 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  742 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  652 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  406 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  88 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  24 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 3 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.81 million km2, 0.66 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 09:00:01 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1691 on: February 20, 2021, 01:47:36 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,825,567 KM2 as at 19-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 26k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 16.04 million km2, 0.10 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.94 million km2.
- Extent is at position #26 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  792 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  633 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  403 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  66 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  6 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 2 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.79 million km2, 0.65 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 08:58:23 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1692 on: February 21, 2021, 09:27:32 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,804,140 KM2 as at 20-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 21k, 19 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 16.06 million km2, 0.12 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.94 million km2.
- Extent is at position #25 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  825 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  606 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  383 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  30 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  12 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.8% of ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and 1 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.78 million km2, 0.63 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1693 on: February 22, 2021, 09:50:00 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,787,666 KM2 as at 21-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 16k, 26 k different from the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 16.07 million km2, 0.15 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.93 million km2.
- Extent is at position #20 in the satellite record of which 11 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  851 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  590 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  379 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  5 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  24 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 99.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 0 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.77 million km2, 0.62 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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Modestly above average daily extent losses in the last 4 days sends extent from 28th lowest to 20th lowest in the satellite record
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1694 on: February 22, 2021, 10:25:58 AM »
"8 days to Minimum", referring to the melting season 2016/2017. I have just checked the JAXA curves of all years since 1979. 2017 has had the latest minimum. Just wonder whether 2021 might be able to beat it...
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1695 on: February 23, 2021, 11:32:37 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,807,201 KM2 as at 22-Feb-2021

- Extent loss gain this day 20k, 13 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 16.05 million km2, 0.13 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 15.92 million km2.
- Extent is at position #20 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  863 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  615 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  396 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  19 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  2 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 100% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 0 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.79 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Just perhaps Antarctic Sea Ice achieved minimum on the the average date of 21 Feb at 2.79 million km2 - making the first image attached redundant.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1696 on: February 24, 2021, 01:30:50 PM »
I am now proceeding on the assumption that this year's Antarctic sea ice minimum occurred on the 21 Feb with an extent of 2.788 million km2. This is usually an invitation for a minor disaster.
I will post the analysis of the minimum in a few days if extent continues to increase.


JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,813,724 KM2 as at 23-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 7k, 1 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.03 million km2, 0.04 million km2, -(61.1%) less than the 10 year average of 0.07 million km2.
- Extent is at position #20  in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  880 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  646 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  356 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  26 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  2 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average  0.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 209 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.73 million km2, 0.66 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1697 on: February 25, 2021, 07:18:51 AM »
With today's small extent gain a bit more likely that the minimum sea ice extent has passed

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,822,840 KM2 as at 24-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 9k, 4 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.04 million km2, 0.04 million km2, -(51.2%) less than the 10 year average of 0.07 million km2.
- Extent is at position #19 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  882 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  660 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  347 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  20 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  2 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average  0.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 208 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.73 million km2, 0.67 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1698 on: February 26, 2021, 06:50:49 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  2,899,944 KM2 as at 25-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 77k, 65 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 12k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.11 million km2, 0.03 million km2, (33.1%) more than the 10 year average of 0.08 million km2.
- Extent is at position #27 in the satellite record of which 14 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  804 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  731 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  403 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  84 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  60 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average  0.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 207 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.80 million km2, 0.73 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
One larger than average sea ice extent gain sends extent from 19th to 27th lowest in the satellite record, and probably confirms the 2021 minimum extent was 2.788 million km2 on the 21st Feb.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1699 on: February 26, 2021, 06:54:21 AM »
I attach the table of this year's minimum compared with previous years' minima.

At 2.788 million km2 on the 21st Feb, the 2021 minimum was 27th lowest in the satellite record, i.e. in the top half of extents at the minimum.

click image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)