Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[MrGreeny]

Looks like another double century loss today, -262,116 for JAXA extent. Which brings it to 6,122,432km2

It's like an eternity at this point, will be interesting to see how this season plays out.

[gerontocrat]

On average daily sea ice extent losses have just passed the maximum for the melting season. Will daily sea ice losses moderate from now on?

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,122,432 KM2 as at 26-Dec-2022

- Extent loss on this day 262k, which is 67 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 195k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.00 million km2, 1.15 million km2, (10.6%) more than the 10 year average of 10.85 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 69 days this year

- Extent is  2,399 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  9 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,189 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,421 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  580 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,891 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,861 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 68.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 56 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.20 million km2, 0.93 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  3,628,495 KM2 as at 26-Dec-2022

- Area loss on this day 131k, which is 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 141k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 10.63 million km2, 1.14 million km2, (12%) more than the 10 year average of 9.49 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 112th day this year

- AREA is  2,194 k LESS than 2015
- AREA is  821 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,585 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  468 k LESS than 2021
- AREA is  1,866 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,974 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 72.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 60 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.06 million km2, 1.17 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.17 million KM2 (32.7%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,877,882 KM2 as at 27-Dec-2022

- Extent loss on this day 245k, which is 70 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 175k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.24 million km2, 1.20 million km2, (10.9%) more than the 10 year average of 11.04 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 70 days this year

- Extent is  2,375 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  110 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,256 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,503 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  733 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,889 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,914 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 69.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 55 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.13 million km2, 1.00 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[Stephan]

If you look at the daily change graph you will find five days of daily losses lower (= above) than the blue trend line. All other days since Nov 20 showed higher than average losses, no wonder we get into record low territory in the minimum projection.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  3,498,167 KM2 as at 27-Dec-2022

- Area loss on this day 130k, which is 1 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 129k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 10.76 million km2, 1.15 million km2, (12%) more than the 10 year average of 9.61 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 113th day this year

- AREA is  2,167 k LESS than 2015
- AREA is  833 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,596 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  514 k LESS than 2021
- AREA is  1,845 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,978 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 73.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 59 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.06 million km2, 1.17 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.17 million KM2 (34.0%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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[wallen]

Just wondering at point would the Antarctic sea ice melt be considered a BOE. Understand the difference between the Antarctic and the Arctic, but a BOE is still a BOE.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,666,647 KM2 as at 28-Dec-2022

- Extent loss on this day 211k, which is 37 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 174k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.46 million km2, 1.23 million km2, (11.0%) more than the 10 year average of 11.22 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 71 days this year

- Extent is  2,292 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  225 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,287 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,529 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  811 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,936 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,946 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 71.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 54 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.09 million km2, 1.04 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[gerontocrat]

Just wondering at point would the Antarctic sea ice melt be considered a BOE. Understand the difference between the Antarctic and the Arctic, but a BOE is still a BOE.

I can't give a numeric answer. But I can say that the Antarctic equivalent of the Arctic Last Sea Ice Region is in the Weddell Sea, especially on the Eastern side of the West Antarctic Peninsula and in front of the eastern part of the Weddell Ice Shelf.

The attached graph shows the stubbornly large area of high concentration ice there. Much of it is mult-year fast ice. When that becomes history at minimum I would say we have an Antarctic BOE.

Incidentally there are already signs that say "not this year" as the areas of low concentration ice easily melted decline markedly.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  3,370,950 KM2 as at 28-Dec-2022

- Area loss on this day 127k, which is 8 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 119k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 10.89 million km2, 1.16 million km2, (12%) more than the 10 year average of 9.73 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 114th day this year

- AREA is  2,135 k LESS than 2015
- AREA is  859 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,594 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  560 k LESS than 2021
- AREA is  1,831 k (35.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,985 k (37.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 74.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 58 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.05 million km2, 1.18 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.18 million KM2 (35.4%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 day average -  ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,791,840 KM2 as at 28-Dec-2022

- Extent loss on this day 262k, 65 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 197k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.40 million km2, 1.55 million km2, (14%) more than the 10 year average of 10.85 million km2.
- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 102nd day this year

- Extent is  2,831 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  469 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,900 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  2,082 k LESS than 2020
- EXTENT is  892 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  2,287 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,285 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 68.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 55 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.75 million km2, 1.17 million km2 below  the 2022 record low minimum of 1.92 million km2.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,408,516 KM2 as at 29-Dec-2022

- Extent loss on this day 258k, which is 90 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 168k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.71 million km2, 1.30 million km2, (11.4%) more than the 10 year average of 11.41 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 72 days this year

- Extent is  2,298 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  404 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,371 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,546 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  915 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  2,040 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,017 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 72.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 53 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.00 million km2, 1.13 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[Chris83]

  Truly amazing data considering the following:
  Temperature anomalies have been negative for the continent the last few weeks. (-1c / -0.5c mainly)
  And SST maps show cold waters pretty much everywhere.

  2.640.000 km2 of sea ice lost in 8 days ..413.000 more than average..(nearly 20%).

[Stephan]

Lower than average sea temperatures may be the consequence of an above average melt ?!?

[oren]

Indeed, or maybe a consequence of a more northerly wind pattern blowing away from the continent, bringing cold but also sending sea ice to warmer latitudes where it melts more easily. (Haven't checked actual data though).

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  3,231,890 KM2 as at 29-Dec-2022

- Area loss on this day 133k, which is 20 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 113k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.03 million km2, 1.18 million km2, (12%) more than the 10 year average of 9.85 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 115th day this year

- AREA is  2,098 k LESS than 2015
- AREA is  916 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,594 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  627 k LESS than 2021
- AREA is  1,831 k (36.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,008 k (38.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 75.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 57 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.03 million km2, 1.20 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.20 million KM2 (37.5%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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[oren]

With 600k km2 less area than the next competitor, and only 2 million km2 remaining to the 2022 record low, it's becoming harder and harder to avoid a new record low in 2023, though still not impossible of course.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,144,973 KM2 as at 30-Dec-2022

- Extent loss on this day 264k, which is 88 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 176k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 12.98 million km2, 1.37 million km2, (11.8%) more than the 10 year average of 11.61 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 73 days this year

- Extent is  2,329 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  543 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,474 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,652 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,009 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  2,129 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,087 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 73.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 52 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.91 million km2, 1.21 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  3,102,521 KM2 as at 30-Dec-2022

- Area loss on this day 129k, which is 16 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 113k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.16 million km2, 1.19 million km2, (12%) more than the 10 year average of 9.97 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 116th day this year

- AREA is  2,042 k LESS than 2015
- AREA is  950 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,567 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  676 k LESS than 2021
- AREA is  1,831 k (37.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,021 k (39.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 76.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 56 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.01 million km2, 1.22 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.22 million KM2 (39.4%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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[gerontocrat]

regional area/extent. Data seems stable since dec23

Depends what you mean by stable?

NSIDC Daily Area graph from Nico Sun @ https://cryospherecomputing.com/

Area falling more and more below the -2SD boundary.

click image to enlarge

ps : Love the AMSR2 animation

[be cause]

Could someone not just stop drawing the line ? It worked last year !

It's been a very interesting few months down under . Like their New year celebrations , they may be just a little bit ahead of us up here .

[MrGreeny]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 4,911,644 KM2 as at 31-Dec-2022

Extent loss on this day is 233,329km2, I'll leave the rest to Gerontocrat since I'm a bit rusty on the other stuff.

Anyways Happy New Years to all of you, I hope you all have had a wonderful time, of course us Australians have already been past that but it's never too late to celebrate

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,911,644 KM2 as at 31-Dec-2022

- Extent loss on this day 233k, which is 61 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 172k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.21 million km2, 1.43 million km2, (12.2%) more than the 10 year average of 11.78 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 74 days this year

- Extent is  2,303 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  645 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,577 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,724 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,032 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  2,188 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,147 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 74.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 51 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.85 million km2, 1.28 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,997,355 KM2 as at 31-Dec-2022

- Area loss on this day 105k, which is 9 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 114k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.26 million km2, 1.18 million km2, (12%) more than the 10 year average of 10.08 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 117th day this year

- AREA is  1,957 k LESS than 2015
- AREA is  957 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,524 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  686 k LESS than 2021
- AREA is  1,810 k (37.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,010 k (40.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 77.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 55 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.02 million km2, 1.21 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.21 million KM2 (40.6%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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[Steven]

Monthly Antarctic sea ice extent ranks from OSI SAF:
https://cryo.met.no/en/sea-ice-index-sh

December 2022 extent was second lowest on record.  All months of 2022 were in the bottom-7 lowest ranks.

[Steven]

Both the Western Pacific sector and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen sector have record low sea ice extent at the moment.  The Weddell Sea, Ross Sea and Indian Ocean sectors are also rather low but not record low.
https://cryo.met.no/index.php/en/bokeh/seaice

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,777,328 KM2 as at 01-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 134k, which is 33 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 167k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.35 million km2, 1.40 million km2, (11.7%) more than the 10 year average of 11.95 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 1 days this year

- Extent is  4,443 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  2,165 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  597 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,014 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,002 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,994 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,218 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 75.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 50 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.89 million km2, 1.24 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA Extent - a look at 2022

The December 2022 monthly average sea ice extent at 8.86 million km2 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 1.26 million km2 below the long-term linear trend and 0.41 million km2 below the Dec '21 average.

However it is the Annual Average daily sea ice extent that shows how extreme 2022 has been. The average, at 10.66 million km2, is lowest in the satellite record, though just 13k below the previous record low in 2017. It is  0.89 million km2 below the long-term linear trend, and 0.86 million km2 below the annual average in 2021.

The last graph illustrates how since 2011 the long-term linear trend does not fit the data at all.
My speculation is that sea ice in the Antarctic is entering a new far more erratic and unstable state.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA Extent - a further look at 2022

The 365 day trailing average has been in decline for most of this year, and at 10.70 million km2, is 0.90 million km2 below the long-term linear trend though still 0.22 million km2 above the record low set in October 2017.

If daily sea ice gains and losses to come are at the 10 year average, a new record low would be set in early March '23.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,895,453 KM2 as at 01-Jan-2023

- Area loss on this day 102k, which is 18 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 120k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.37 million km2, 1.16 million km2, (11%) more than the 10 year average of 10.21 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 1st day this year

- AREA is  1,866 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  958 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,314 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  671 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,721 k (37.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,039 k (41.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 78.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 54 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.04 million km2, 1.19 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.19 million KM2 (41.7%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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[gerontocrat]

Definire signs of a slowdown in sa ice losses, but a record low still the ,ost likely outcome for the minimum.

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,644,691 KM2 as at 02-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 133k, which is 19 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 152k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.48 million km2, 1.37 million km2, (11.3%) more than the 10 year average of 12.11 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 2 days this year

- Extent is  4,472 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  2,051 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  579 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,005 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,807 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  926 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,949 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,176 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 76.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 49 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.91 million km2, 1.22 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,800,993 KM2 as at 02-Jan-2023

- Area loss on this day 94k, which is 22 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 116k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.46 million km2, 1.14 million km2, (11%) more than the 10 year average of 10.33 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 2st day this year

- AREA is  1,778 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  945 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,289 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  658 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,691 k (37.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,011 k (41.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 79.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 53 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.06 million km2, 1.17 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.17 million KM2 (42.6%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,485,865 KM2 as at 03-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 159k, which is 33 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 126k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.64 million km2, 1.40 million km2, (11.4%) more than the 10 year average of 12.24 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 3 days this year

- Extent is  4,537 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  2,006 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  663 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  947 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,839 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  926 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,941 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,182 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 77.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 48 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.87 million km2, 1.26 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

From NSIDC 5-day trailing average Data- - a look at 2022

The December 2022 monthly average sea ice area at 5,49 million km2 is the lowest in the satellite record, 1.53 million km2 below the long-term linear trend and 0.30 million km2 below the Dec '21 average (which was lowest and is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record).

However it is the Annual Average daily sea ice area that shows how extreme 2022 has been. The average, at 7.93 million km2, the fist time the average has been below 8 million km2, is lowest in the satellite record, 0.18 million km2 below the previous record low set in 2017. It is  0.94 million km2 below the long-term linear trend, and 0.75 million km2 below the annual average in 2021.

The last graph illustrates how since 2011 the long-term linear trend does not fit the data at all.

I split the data into 2 series, 1979-2011 and 2012 to 2022.
The long-term average trend 1979-2022 R2 value of 0.01 becomes 0.33 in the 1979-2011 series, and a respectable 0.52 in the 2012-2022 series.

My speculation is that sea ice in the Antarctic is entering a new far more erratic and unstable state.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Area loss slowing down considerably

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,728,681 KM2 as at 03-Jan-2023

- Area loss on this day 72k, which is 41 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 113k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.53 million km2, 1.09 million km2, (10%) more than the 10 year average of 10.44 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 3st day this year

- AREA is  1,677 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  911 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,228 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  630 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,645 k (37.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,963 k (41.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 79.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 52 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.10 million km2, 1.13 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.13 million KM2 (42.9%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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Click on images to enlarge

[oren]

Still 630k below 2022, and only 1500k remaining to pass 2022's minimum. Quite the impressive achievement so far.

[Phil.]

Still 630k below 2022, and only 1500k remaining to pass 2022's minimum. Quite the impressive achievement so far.

I guesstimated a few weeks ago that it would reach 900k with just some MYI left, mostly in the Weddell sea, seems likely still.

[gerontocrat]

From NSIDC 5-day average Sea Ice Area Data - Open Water Percentages

Less sea ice = more open water which transforms the icy desert into an open water maritime climate environment.

The attached graphs show Open Water for various periods of the year as a percentage of the maximum daily sea ice area recorded since 1979. This post (and the next) looks for the effect of low sea ice in 2022.

Total Sea Ice Open water
On this day - 3rd Jan 2023, the open water percentage is at a record high, as is the average for the calendar year 2022.

In general since the record high sea ice area and thus low open water percentage of 2014, open water percentages have steadiuly risen.

Bellinghausen-Amundsen Sea
This is a small sea, but borders the fragile areas of the West Antarctice Peninsula and most importantly the Thwaites and Pine Island (PIG) glaciers and the 3 drainage basins which are currently losing the greatest ice sheet mass loss of the Antarctic Continent.

On this day - 3rd Jan 2023, the open water percentage is at a record high,while the average for the calendar year 2022 is high, but not a record. Given that the minimum is still about 40 days away, this is not good news for the iceshelves protecting the Thwaites and PIG glaciers.

Ross Sea
This is the 2nd largest sea. Earlier this year the Ross Sea ice area was highest in the satellite record and only in the last 2 months or so has area loss been high or very high. As a result the average open water percentage for 2022 declined a bit from the record high in 2017. On this day - 3rd Jan 2023, the open water percentage is high but not a record high.

West Pacific Region.
This is a small sea, but does border Wilkes Basin, which is the part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet  with the greatest mass loss. Both the calendar year and 3rd Jan 2023 open water percentages are high bit not record highs.

click images to enlarge

see next post for last 2 seas + map

[gerontocrat]

From NSIDC 5-day average Sea Ice Area Data - Open Water Percentages

Last 2 seas

Indian Ocean Region
With no record highs or lows in 2022 or currently, the Indian Ocean region seems to be the most stable region.

Weddell Sea
This is the largest sea, and contains the largest amount of fast ice and a very large ice shelf sheltered by the West Antarctic Peninsula. Earlier this year sea ice area losses were low, again accelerating in November and December.

Both the calendar year and 3rd Jan 2023 open water percentages are high but not record highs. The next 40 days will show whether 2023 melt breaks down the resistance to melting.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,364,564 KM2 as at 04-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 121k, which is 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 149k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.76 million km2, 1.37 million km2, (11.0%) more than the 10 year average of 12.39 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 4 days this year

- Extent is  4,510 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,906 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  674 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  879 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,816 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  882 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,892 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,138 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 78.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 47 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.90 million km2, 1.23 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,665,746 KM2 as at 04-Jan-2023

- Area loss on this day 63k, which is 44 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 107k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.60 million km2, 1.05 million km2, (10%) more than the 10 year average of 10.55 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 4st day this year

- AREA is  1,591 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  881 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,174 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  598 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,590 k (37.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,914 k (41.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 80.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 51 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.14 million km2, 1.09 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.08 million KM2 (43.0%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,260,926 KM2 as at 05-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 104k, which is 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 132k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.86 million km2, 1.33 million km2, (10.6%) more than the 10 year average of 12.53 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 5 days this year

- Extent is  4,468 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,883 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  708 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  801 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,780 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  856 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,828 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,084 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 79.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 46 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.93 million km2, 1.20 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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The slow down in sea ice extent losses continues
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Daily sea ice area losses slowing in all seas but still looks like a record low in February.

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,598,525 KM2 as at 05-Jan-2023

- Area loss on this day 67k, which is 33 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 100k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.66 million km2, 1.01 million km2, (9%) more than the 10 year average of 10.65 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 5th day this year

- AREA is  1,532 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  859 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,139 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  573 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,544 k (37.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,876 k (41.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 81.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 50 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.18 million km2, 1.05 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.05 million KM2 (43.4%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
/i]_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,177,191 KM2 as at 06-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 84k, which is 47 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 131k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.95 million km2, 1.29 million km2, (10.2%) more than the 10 year average of 12.66 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 6 days this year

- Extent is  4,408 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,882 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  749 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  698 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,728 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  719 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,733 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,027 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 79.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 45 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.98 million km2, 1.15 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,538,870 KM2 as at 06-Jan-2023

- Area loss on this day 60k, which is 32 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 92k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.72 million km2, 0.98 million km2, (9%) more than the 10 year average of 10.75 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 6th day this year

- AREA is  1,472 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  830 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,089 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  554 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,498 k (37.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,833 k (41.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 82.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 49 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.21 million km2, 1.02 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 1.02 million KM2 (43.7%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,048,523 KM2 as at 07-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 129k, which is 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 140k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.07 million km2, 1.27 million km2, (9.9%) more than the 10 year average of 12.81 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 7 days this year

- Extent is  4,374 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,839 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  782 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  674 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,749 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  710 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,678 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,007 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 80.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 44 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.99 million km2, 1.14 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  2,483,501 KM2 as at 07-Jan-2023

- Area loss on this day 55k, which is 38 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 11.78 million km2, 0.93 million km2, (9%) more than the 10 year average of 10.84 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record which is for the 7th day this year

- AREA is  1,416 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  809 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,039 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  539 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,455 k (36.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,788 k (41.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 82.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 48 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 0.25 million km2, 0.98 million km2 below the 2022 record low minimum of 1.23 million km2.

To not end the melting season with a record low sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 0.98 million KM2 (43.8%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,931,888 KM2 as at 08-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 117k, which is 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 140k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.19 million km2, 1.24 million km2, (9.5%) more than the 10 year average of 12.95 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 8 days this year

- Extent is  4,358 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,782 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  800 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  652 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,700 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  736 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,627 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,971 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 81.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 43 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.01 million km2, 1.12 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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Click on image to enlarge

[grixm]

So current area is already lower than the minimum area of both 2013 and 2014.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,792,491 KM2 as at 09-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 139k, which is 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 143k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.33 million km2, 1.23 million km2, (9.4%) more than the 10 year average of 13.10 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 9 days this year

- Extent is  4,319 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,710 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  822 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  672 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,734 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  757 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,615 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,955 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 82.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 42 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.02 million km2, 1.11 million km2 BELOW the 2021 record low minimum of 2.13 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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Click on image to enlarge