Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[interstitial]

It looks like your sea ice area days to maximum calculation is based on the last six years and not five years.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,980,604 KM2 as at 15-Sep-2024

- Extent loss on this day 38k, 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 14.89 million km2, 0.69 million km2, (4.4%) less than the 10 year average of 15.58 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  763 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  948 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  644 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,130 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  52 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,591 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,599 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  99.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.21 million km2, 0.23 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

However, it is very possible that the 2024 maximum occurred on the 11th September at 17.13 million km2.
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Click on image for full-size

[kiwichick16]

On average , extent is in decline from about the 20th of September ...........4 days from now

[Phil.]

Welcome back Gero.

[gerontocrat]

Welcome back Gero.

Cheers Phil (still a bit wobbly)

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,963,050 KM2 as at 16-Sep-2024

- Extent loss on this day 0k, 7 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 14.87 million km2, 0.71 million km2, (4.6%) less than the 10 year average of 15.58 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  762 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  951 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  789 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,160 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  78 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,633 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,632 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  99.3% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.19 million km2, 0.20 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
IHowever, in 14 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 remaining sea ice gain from now is below that necessary to make sea ice extent greater than the current 2024 maximum of 17.31 million km2 of the 11th September
In other words it is very possible the 2024 maximum has already gone by
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,092,280 KM2 as at 18-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 57k, 52 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 15.00 million km2, 0.59 million km2, (3.8%) less than the 10 year average of 15.59 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  597 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  722 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  762 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  974 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  199 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,516 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,512 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  99.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.22 million km2, 0.23 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
In 8 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 remaining sea ice gain from now is above that necessary to make sea ice extent greater than the current 2024 maximum of 17.31 million km2 of the 11th September
In other words the  2024 maximum may or may not have already gone by
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,090,093 KM2 as at 19-Sep-2024

Extent dithering around, close to the current maximum.

- Extent loss on this day 2k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 15.00 million km2, 0.59 million km2, (3.8%) less than the 10 year average of 15.58 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  581 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  693 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  833 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  967 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  193 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,519 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,500 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  100% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 2 days after the maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.21 million km2, 0.23 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
In 9 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 remaining sea ice gain from now is above that necessary to make sea ice extent greater than the current 2024 maximum of 17.31 million km2 of the 11th September
In other words the 2024 maximum may or may not have already gone by
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,057,265 KM2 as at 20-Sep-2024

- Extent loss on this day 33k, 35 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 14.97 million km2, 0.62 million km2, (4.0%) less than the 10 year average of 15.59 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  603 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  689 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  973 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  997 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  232 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,538 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,554 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  99.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and -3 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.19 million km2, 0.20 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
In 6 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 remaining sea ice gain from now is above that necessary to make sea ice extent greater than the current 2024 maximum of 17.31 million km2 of the 11th September
In other words the  2024 maximum may or may not have already gone by
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,316,971 KM2 as at 20-Sep-2024

At this late date I am still unable to call the maximum

- Area gain on this day 35k, 30 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.91 million km2, 0.69 million km2 (5.4%) less than the 10 year average of 12.60 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  442 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  521 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,960 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  759 k LESS than 2022
- Area is  580 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,217 k (8.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,338 k (9.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  100% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 6 days after the expected date of the maximum
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2024 of 13.46 million km2, 0.08 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 13.37 million km2, and would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

A new record low maximum is now impossible as sea ice area on the 27th August was 13.42 million km2, 0.05 million km2 above the 2023 record low sea ice area maximum of 13.37 million km2
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,091,384 KM2 as at 21-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 34k, 37 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 15.00 million km2, 0.58 million km2, (3.7%) less than the 10 year average of 15.58 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  597 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  620 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  999 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  960 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  289 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,470 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,531 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 100% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 4 days after the average date of the maximum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.19 million km2, 0.21 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
In 4 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 remaining sea ice gain from now is above that necessary to make sea ice extent greater than the current 2024 maximum of 17.31 million km2 of the 11th September
In other words it is more likely than not that the 2024 maximum has already gone by
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,095,137 KM2 as at 22-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 4k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 15.00 million km2, 0.58 million km2, (3.7%) less than the 10 year average of 15.58 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  556 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  619 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,008 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  956 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  380 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,442 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,544 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  99.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and -5 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.19 million km2, 0.21 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
In 3 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 remaining sea ice gain from now is above that necessary to make sea ice extent greater than the current 2024 maximum of 17.31 million km2 of the 11th September
In other words it is more likely than not that the 2024 maximum has already gone by
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,397,051 KM2 as at 22-Sep-2024

At this late date I am still unable to call the maximum

- Area gain on this day 21k, 22 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.99 million km2, 0.60 million km2 (4.8%) less than the 10 year average of 12.59 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  378 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  438 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,800 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  722 k LESS than 2022
- Area is  773 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,109 k (7.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,266 k (8.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  99.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 8 days to maximum
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2024 of 13.46 million km2, 0.09 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 13.37 million km2, and would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

A new record low maximum is now impossible as sea ice area on the 27th August was 13.42 million km2, 0.05 million km2 above the 2023 record low sea ice area maximum of 13.37 million km2
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,055,805 KM2 as at 23-Sep-2024

- Extent loss on this day 39k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k. This is enough for me to at last state that the 2024 maximum daily sea ice extent was 17.31 million km2 on the 11th September, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, 1.36 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 0.15 million km2 above the record low maximum of 2023.

So a 2nd year of an extreme low maximum.
Can one say this is a new trend or the new "normal"? Not really. The climate scientists will say not enough years, but I am sure there are plenty of scientists asking the question as to what is going on in the Southern ocean.
___________________________________________________________
Click on graph for full-size, click maxima  table twice

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,055,805 KM2 as at 23-Sep-2024

So here is the 1st posting about the 2024-25 melting season

- Extent loss on this day 39k, which is 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.08 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (72.2%) less than the 10 year average of 0.27 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,088 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  871 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  632 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,125 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,304 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  937 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  399 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,455 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,567 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 149 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.51 million km2, 0.44 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,402,706 KM2 as at 23-Sep-2024

- Area gain on this day 6k, 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 12.00 million km2, 0.60 million km2 (4.7%) less than the 10 year average of 12.59 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  353 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  458 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,752 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  704 k LESS than 2022
- Area is  812 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,079 k (7.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,268 k (8.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  100% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 9 days after the average date of the maximum
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2024 of 13.46 million km2, 0.08 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 13.37 million km2, and would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

A new record low maximum is now impossible as sea ice area on the 27th August was 13.42 million km2, 0.05 million km2 above the 2023 record low sea ice area maximum of 13.37 million km2
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,002,004 KM2 as at 24-Sep-2024

- Extent loss on this day 54k, which is 29 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.13 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (56.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.30 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,062 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  895 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  606 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,197 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,336 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,019 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  371 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,485 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,593 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 148 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.50 million km2, 0.45 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,371,683 KM2 as at 24-Sep-2024

One more day of a reasonable sea ice loss and methinks time to call the 2024 maximum at last.

- Area loss on this day 31k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.96 million km2, 0.62 million km2 (4.9%) less than the 10 year average of 12.58 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  368 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  495 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,741 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  718 k LESS than 2022
- Area is  809 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,078 k (7.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,298 k (8.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  100% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and10 days after the average date of the maximum
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2024 of 13.45 million km2, 0.07 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 13.37 million km2, and would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

A new record low maximum is now impossible as sea ice area on the 27th August was 13.42 million km2, 0.05 million km2 above the 2023 record low sea ice area maximum of 13.37 million km2
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[Phil.]

"Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.50 million km2, 0.45 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record."

2nd lowest?

[gerontocrat]

"Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.50 million km2, 0.45 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record."

2nd lowest?

Whoops, Phil. 1st lowest. Forgot to update the minima ranking table to include 2025.

You might be interested in why for the Antarctic projection I put a constraint on how low the minimum can get. It is to prevent the occurence of less than zero results. Attached is the unconstrained projection for the Antarctic sea ice area minimum. Last year was much more ridiculous.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,018,260 KM2 as at 25-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 16k, which is 22 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.11 million km2, 0.19 million km2, (62.6%) less than the 10 year average of 0.30 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,025 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  872 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  557 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,173 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,283 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,026 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  420 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,447 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,570 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 147 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.51 million km2, 0.44 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,356,813 KM2 as at 25-Sep-2024

One more day of sea ice area loss & I will call the maximum & switch the spreadsheets to the melting season.

- Area loss on this day 17k, 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.95 million km2, 0.63 million km2 (5.0%) less than the 10 year average of 12.58 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  372 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  507 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,700 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  719 k LESS than 2022
- Area is  788 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,061 k (7.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,308 k (8.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  100% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 11 days after the average date of the maximum
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2024 of 13.44 million km2, 0.07 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 13.37 million km2, and would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

A new record low maximum is now impossible as sea ice area on the 27th August was 13.42 million km2, 0.05 million km2 above the 2023 record low sea ice area maximum of 13.37 million km2
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[Phil.]

"One more day of sea ice area loss & I will call the maximum & switch the spreadsheets to the melting season."

Given its periodic nature I would not be surprised to see one more little growth spike. 

[gerontocrat]

"One more day of sea ice area loss & I will call the maximum & switch the spreadsheets to the melting season."

Given its periodic nature I would not be surprised to see one more little growth spike. 

But I'm fed up with waiting

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,044,947 KM2 as at 26-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 27k, which is 10 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 17k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.09 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (69.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.29 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,088 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  872 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  589 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,106 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,178 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,046 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  485 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,401 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,563 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 146 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.51 million km2, 0.44 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,311,713 KM2 as at 26-Sep-2024


With not with complete certainty, I declare the Antarctic Daily Sea Ice Area 2024 Maximum to have passed on the 27th August 2024 at 13.42 million km2, 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, 1.39 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 0.05 above the 2023 record low maximum.

click images to enlarge (table twice for fullsize)

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,311,713 KM2 as at 26-Sep-2024

Here is a look at the 2024-2025 melting season, with the projections of the minimum unconstrained, which results in some years forecasting less than zero sea ice, which of course is nonsense.
It will take some time to resurrect the constrained projections, which requires each regional sea to be done separately, and then consolidated

- Area loss on this day 45k, which is 43 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.11 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (76.8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.46 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  394 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  548 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,709 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  710 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,087 k (7.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,351 k (9.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 0.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 215 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 0.63 million km2, 0.43 million km2 below the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

A closer look at why it's necessary to put a constraint on projections of the Antarctic Sea Ice Area minimum by the individual Antarctic Regions.

For example, because Ross Sea Ice area is currently quite low, in every year since 2005 (except 2023-24) sea ice area losses to minimum would project a less than zero Ross sea ice area minimum.

In contrast, BellinghamAmundsen sea ice area is currently quite high, so -ve sea ice minima occur in fewer years.

Basically, the large reduction in Antarctic sea ice over the last few years has made projections even more of a lottery, and history no longer even provides a benchmark. Despite that I will sort out the other regional seas to produce an overall look

[oren]

Many thanks for all your efforts, Gero.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,060,099 KM2 as at 27-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 15k, which is 8 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.07 million km2, 0.19 million km2, (72.9%) less than the 10 year average of 0.26 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,265 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  859 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  570 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,022 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,060 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  999 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  397 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,377 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,569 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 145 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.49 million km2, 0.46 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[Chris83]

Good morning  Gerontocrat

 Is Antarctica supposed to gain an average 23k on this date?
I am simply checking. The area should be losing ice.
Many thanks for the daily work

[gerontocrat]

Good morning  Gerontocrat

 Is Antarctica supposed to gain an average 23k on this date?
I am simply checking. The area should be losing ice.
Many thanks for the daily work

Daily sea ice change wobbles around the maximum (and the minimum). We are in what looks like the last wobble before sustained sea ice losses set in.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,272,756 KM2 as at 27-Sep-2024

- Area loss on this day 39k, which is 25 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.15 million km2, 0.33 million km2, (69.2%) less than the 10 year average of 0.47 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  390 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  573 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,737 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  636 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,101 k (7.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,377 k (9.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 216 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 0.61 million km2, 0.45 million km2 below the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,043,294 KM2 as at 28-Sep-2024

- Extent loss on this day 17k, which is 37 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.09 million km2, 0.15 million km2, (63.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.24 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,465 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  901 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  639 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,021 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,044 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  998 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  294 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,381 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,598 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 144 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.46 million km2, 0.49 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,281,243 KM2 as at 28-Sep-2024

- Area gain on this day 8k, which is 20 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 12k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.14 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (71.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.48 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  341 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  561 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,731 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  607 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,070 k (7.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,362 k (9.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 217 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 0.63 million km2, 0.43 million km2 below the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,049,684 KM2 as at 29-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 6k, which is 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.08 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (67.1%) less than the 10 year average of 0.25 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,589 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  880 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  657 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,997 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  991 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  916 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  270 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,366 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,597 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 143 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.45 million km2, 0.50 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,307,218 KM2 as at 29-Sep-2024

- Area gain on this day 26k, which is 32 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.11 million km2, 0.38 million km2, (77.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.49 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  278 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  539 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,691 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  558 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,033 k (7.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,336 k (9.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 147 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.12 million km2, 0.06 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[Phil.]

"One more day of sea ice area loss & I will call the maximum & switch the spreadsheets to the melting season."

Given its periodic nature I would not be surprised to see one more little growth spike. 

But I'm fed up with waiting

I understand but the spike came anyway.    Not enough to invalidate your call though.   

[gerontocrat]

"One more day of sea ice area loss & I will call the maximum & switch the spreadsheets to the melting season."

Given its periodic nature I would not be surprised to see one more little growth spike. 

But I'm fed up with waiting

I understand but the spike came anyway.    Not enough to invalidate your call though.   

Maybe the joke's on me. Extent now just 9k km2 less than the current maximum

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,122,844 KM2 as at 30-Sep-2024

- Extent gain on this day 73k, which is 83 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.01 million km2, 0.25 million km2, (96.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.26 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,558 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  847 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  611 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,911 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  884 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  751 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  365 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,291 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,526 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 142 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.48 million km2, 0.47 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,301,822 KM2 as at 30-Sep-2024

- Area loss on this day 5k, which is 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.12 million km2, 0.39 million km2, (76.9%) less than the 10 year average of 0.50 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  232 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  518 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,692 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  480 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,037 k (7.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,345 k (9.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 146 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.14 million km2, 0.08 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,105,692 KM2 as at 01-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 17k, which is 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.03 million km2, 0.26 million km2, (90.9%) less than the 10 year average of 0.28 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,594 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  881 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  612 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,894 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  912 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  694 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  370 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,316 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,533 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 141 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.48 million km2, 0.47 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,274,395 KM2 as at 01-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 27k, which is 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.14 million km2, 0.37 million km2, (72.2%) less than the 10 year average of 0.52 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  225 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  513 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,723 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  395 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,064 k (7.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,373 k (9.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 145 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.46 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):
Large variations between the Antarctic Regions - post 1 of several

The variations between the regions are very high this year; for the timing of the maxima and the amount of the maximum compared with the longterm trend.

This makes extreme differences on any constraints to the projections of the 2025 minimum.

The attached images set the scene, later posts look at each region.

click images to enlarge, click last table twice for full size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):
Large variations between the Antarctic Regions - post 2 of several

BellinghamAmundsen Sea
The daily sea ice area maximum was very late this year (& may not have passed), and almost at a record high. As a result no adjustments to melt have been made, and the current projected minimum is at a record high.

Of course, with sea ice area curently so high at such a late date, one might expect sea ice area to crash soon. But to me this just another indication that projecting the behaviour of Antarctic sea ice has now become a mug's game completely.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):
Large variations between the Antarctic Regions - post 3 of several

Ross Sea
The daily sea ice area maximum was close to the average date, and quite high. But since then sea ice area losses have been consistently high. In total contrast to the BellinghamAmundsen Sea, downward adjustments to melt have therefore been made for all years except one (last year), and the current projected minimum is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The Ross sea minimum has been very low since 2016. One wonders if this having any effect on degradation of the very large Ross ice shelf.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):
Large variations between the Antarctic Regions - post 4 of several

The West Pacific Region daily sea ice area maximum has not yet been reached as at 1 October, and is quite high. As a result downward adjustments to melt have therefore been made in only 2 years, and the current projected minimum is 4th highest in the 47 year satellite record.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):
Large variations between the Antarctic Regions - post 5 of several

The Indian Ocean Region daily sea ice area maximum may or may not have been reached, and is very low, currently 2nd lowest. As a result reductions to melt have therefore been made in all years, and the current projected minimum is lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):
Large variations between the Antarctic Regions - post 5 of several

The Weddell Sea daily sea ice area maximum was reached close to the average data at a slightly above average amount. Since then there was strong sea ice loss and is currently very low, currently 2nd lowest. As a result reductions to melt have therefore been made in more years than not years, and the current projected minimum is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record.
_________________________________________________
ps: The variation between the various regions is 2 extreme to allow a coherent view of sea ice trends in the Antarctic.

pps: You won't see me repeating this series of posts very often

[kassy]

Well we do not need them often but here they are well timed and interesting.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,220,225 KM2 as at 02-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 52k, which is 54 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.20 million km2, 0.32 million km2, (61.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.51 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  293 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  548 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,809 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  290 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,133 k (7.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,430 k (9.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 144 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.42 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge