Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[gerontocrat]

Jaxa has given us data for 2nd October, but not for the 3rd Oct.

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,034,810 KM2 as at 02-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 71k, which is 56 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.10 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (67.6%) less than the 10 year average of 0.30 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,677 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  913 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  690 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,943 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,022 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  769 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  289 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,384 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,582 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 140 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.46 million km2, 0.49 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,158,126 KM2 as at 03-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 62k, which is 61 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.26 million km2, 0.26 million km2, (49.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.52 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  392 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  558 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,921 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  189 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,201 k (8.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,488 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 143 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.38 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,091,916 KM2 as at 04-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 66k, which is 62 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.78 million km2, 0.40 million km2, (37.2%) more than the 10 year average of 1.38 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  487 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  583 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,063 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  116 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,260 k (8.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,552 k (10.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 142 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.35 million km2, 0.29 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,033,497 KM2 as at 05-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 58k, which is 54 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.84 million km2, 0.45 million km2, (26.6%) more than the 10 year average of 1.38 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  569 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  638 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,172 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  55 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,306 k (9.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,608 k (11.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 141 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.25 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,006,480 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 27k, which is 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.86 million km2, 0.47 million km2, (22.7%) more than the 10 year average of 1.39 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  589 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  651 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,217 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  18 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,305 k (9.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,628 k (11.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 140 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.30 million km2, 0.24 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[Stephan]

18 k km² more than the lowest year (2023) means 0.14% more ice area.
Probably a #1 place soon to come... ?!?

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,767,600 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 31k, which is 1 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.36 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (3.6%) less than the 10 year average of 0.38 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,897 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,062 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,224 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,225 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,073 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,034 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  358 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,515 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,802 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 135 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,014,635 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2024

- Area gain on this day 8k, which is 36 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.85 million km2, 0.44 million km2, (28.0%) more than the 10 year average of 1.42 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  541 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  621 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,190 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  40 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,268 k (8.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,605 k (11.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 139 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.25 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,741,993 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 26k, which is 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.39 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (1.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.40 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,912 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,018 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,252 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,225 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,098 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,096 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  319 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,520 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,793 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 134 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,020,903 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2024

- Area gain on this day 6k, which is 34 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.85 million km2, 0.40 million km2, (32.5%) more than the 10 year average of 1.45 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  484 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  625 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,146 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  63 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,245 k (8.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,586 k (10.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 138 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.32 million km2, 0.26 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,712,022 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 30k, which is 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.42 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (1.8%) more than the 10 year average of 0.41 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,911 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,079 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,282 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,238 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,121 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,153 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  323 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,545 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,800 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 133 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,009,462 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 11k, which is 21 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.86 million km2, 0.38 million km2, (34.1%) more than the 10 year average of 1.48 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  453 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  637 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,092 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  107 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,248 k (8.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,574 k (10.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 137 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.33 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,694,016 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 18k, which is 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.44 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (1.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.44 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,840 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,101 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,302 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,196 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,119 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,180 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  356 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,547 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,795 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,005,293 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 4k, which is 29 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.88 million km2, 0.37 million km2, (36.7%) more than the 10 year average of 1.51 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  420 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  617 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,052 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  182 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,237 k (8.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,549 k (10.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 136 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.34 million km2, 0.28 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,690,299 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 4k, which is 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.44 million km2, 0.04 million km2, (8.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.48 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,777 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,085 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,259 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,105 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,079 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,170 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  439 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,532 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,761 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 131 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,984,760 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 21k, which is 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.92 million km2, 0.38 million km2, (36.9%) more than the 10 year average of 1.54 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  409 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  621 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,037 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  260 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,260 k (8.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,535 k (10.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 135 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.35 million km2, 0.29 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,676,940 KM2 as at 12-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 13k, which is 30 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.45 million km2, 0.07 million km2, (13.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.53 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,741 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,068 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,215 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,019 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,050 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,078 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  462 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,519 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,735 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 130 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,710,360 KM2 as at 13-Oct-2024

- Extent gain on this day 33k, which is 72 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.42 million km2, 0.14 million km2, (25.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.56 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,674 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,027 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,128 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,952 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,003 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  945 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  585 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,457 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,658 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 129 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.58 million km2, 0.37 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,683,631 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 27k, which is 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.45 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (26.0%) less than the 10 year average of 0.60 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,699 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  993 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,124 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,994 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,020 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  895 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  645 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,456 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,654 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 128 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.59 million km2, 0.36 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

An NSIDC update very late yesterday, but no new update today so still 1 day behind schedule

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,956,464 KM2 as at 13-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 12k, which is 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.95 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (37.5%) more than the 10 year average of 1.60 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  356 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  637 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,979 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  430 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,274 k (9.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,498 k (10.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 133 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.38 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC finally gets updates uptodate

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,938,819 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 18k, which is 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.97 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (37.3%) more than the 10 year average of 1.62 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  302 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  623 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,981 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  499 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,278 k (9.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,478 k (10.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.40 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,622,756 KM2 as at 15-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 61k, which is 31 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.51 million km2, 0.13 million km2, (19.9%) less than the 10 year average of 0.64 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,768 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,028 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,123 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,048 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,080 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  962 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  629 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,482 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,675 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 127 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.59 million km2, 0.36 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,905,657 KM2 as at 15-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 33k, which is 3 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.00 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (35.6%) more than the 10 year average of 1.65 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  249 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  617 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,007 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  513 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,294 k (9.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,466 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 131 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.41 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,549,166 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 74k, which is 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.58 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (11.8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.66 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,851 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,009 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,163 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,077 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,123 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,011 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  524 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,523 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,718 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 126 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.58 million km2, 0.37 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,857,737 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 48k, which is 5 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.05 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (33.1%) more than the 10 year average of 1.70 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  216 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  614 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,059 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  515 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,319 k (9.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,464 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 130 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.42 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,493,273 KM2 as at 17-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 56k, which is 1 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.64 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (10.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.71 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,861 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  943 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,150 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,071 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,182 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  963 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  450 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,545 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,714 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 125 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,786,439 KM2 as at 17-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 71k, which is 16 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.12 million km2, 0.37 million km2, (29.3%) more than the 10 year average of 1.75 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  186 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  603 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,133 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  489 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,357 k (9.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,481 k (10.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 13.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 129 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.41 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,444,060 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 49k, which is 10 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.69 million km2, 0.07 million km2, (8.8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.75 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,905 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  904 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,186 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,074 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,222 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  925 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  410 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,558 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,712 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 124 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[Unaffiliated]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,444,060 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2024


Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
______________________________________________________________

So by my math 1 day of above average melt will push the projection to the limits of the constraints?

[IceFloe]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,444,060 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2024


Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
______________________________________________________________

So by my math 1 day of above average melt will push the projection to the limits of the constraints?

I don't believe that a new minimum in Antarctica will be set in 2025. Average daily temperatures after July show slow cooling, and have dropped to stable second place compared to last year. Large ice loss in Antarctica is almost always associated with a strong El Niño, and it ended in the summer.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

[kiwichick16]

Increase in ocean heat content accelerating

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z/figures/1

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,440,215 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 4k, which is 43 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.69 million km2, 0.11 million km2, (13.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.80 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,867 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  822 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,194 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,061 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,146 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  856 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  420 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,510 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,670 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 5.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 123 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,452,308 KM2 as at 20-Oct-2024

The melting sason this year stalls once again[/i]

- Extent gain on this day 12k, which is 69 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.68 million km2, 0.18 million km2, (20.8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.86 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,825 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  760 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,145 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,020 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,073 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  798 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  516 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,457 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,599 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 5.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 122 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.58 million km2, 0.37 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC update arrives at 5.20pm BST.

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,618,089 KM2 as at 20-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 34k, which is 24 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.29 million km2, 0.37 million km2, (24.9%) more than the 10 year average of 1.92 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  152 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  678 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,149 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  322 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,421 k (10.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,509 k (10.7%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 14.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 126 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.39 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,460,838 KM2 as at 21-Oct-2024

- Extent gain on this day 9k, which is 68 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.67 million km2, 0.25 million km2, (26.8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.92 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,773 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  713 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,078 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,954 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  993 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  732 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  588 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,412 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,542 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 5.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 121 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.59 million km2, 0.36 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,607,886 KM2 as at 21-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 7k, which is 41 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.30 million km2, 0.33 million km2, (27.2%) more than the 10 year average of 1.97 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  108 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  703 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,074 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  317 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,392 k (9.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,479 k (10.5%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 15.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 125 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.40 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,487,095 KM2 as at 22-Oct-2024

- Extent gain on this day 26k, which is 66 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.64 million km2, 0.31 million km2, (32.6%) less than the 10 year average of 0.96 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,693 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  619 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,022 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,891 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  917 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  671 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  650 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,348 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,470 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 6.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 120 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.62 million km2, 0.33 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,601,031 KM2 as at 22-Oct-2024

the melting season still declines to get going

- Area loss on this day 7k, which is 27 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.31 million km2, 0.30 million km2, (28.8%) more than the 10 year average of 2.01 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  100 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  748 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,995 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  308 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,363 k (9.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,447 k (10.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 15.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 124 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.40 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,436,047 KM2 as at 23-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 51k, which is 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.70 million km2, 0.30 million km2, (30.5%) less than the 10 year average of 1.00 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,658 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  581 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,039 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,900 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  934 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  662 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  595 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,355 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,462 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 6.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 119 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.62 million km2, 0.33 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,575,121 KM2 as at 23-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 26k, which is 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.33 million km2, 0.30 million km2, (28.4%) more than the 10 year average of 2.03 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  106 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  812 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,954 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  283 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,340 k (9.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,432 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 15.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 123 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.39 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,575,121 KM2 as at 23-Oct-2024

I thought I would show why the projections for the minimum have to be constrained (currently melt is constrained to produce a minimum of 75% of each region's minimum). It is basically because of the very low maximum in 2023 combined with that the minimum is also low.

This results in unconstrained projections that can be unbelievably low and even less than zero (especially given the large amount of fast ice in the high latitudes of the Weddell Sea). At the moment the unconstrained projection is for a minimum of 0.61 million km2, more than 40% below the record low minimum, despite the slow start to the melting season. - see 1st table

The constrained projection gives a more believable result (2nd table), with a projected maximum more than double that of the unconstrained . There are inconsistencies between the data in the two tables mostly arising from that the date of the maximum and expected date of the minimum each region varies, sometimes considerably, from the dates of the sea ice area total maxima and minima.

It is likely that later in the melting season the need for the constrained version of projections will diminish and eventually disappear. If it doesn't, an Antarctic BOE is likely.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,410,771 KM2 as at 24-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 25k, which is 12 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.72 million km2, 0.32 million km2, (30.5%) less than the 10 year average of 1.04 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,648 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  514 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,088 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,858 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  885 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  626 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  538 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,329 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,423 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 6.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 118 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.63 million km2, 0.32 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,523,964 KM2 as at 24-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 51k, which is 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 38k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.38 million km2, 0.31 million km2, (26.4%) more than the 10 year average of 2.07 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  110 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  863 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,952 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  236 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,354 k (9.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,427 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 15.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 122 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.37 million km2, 0.31 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,344,450 KM2 as at 25-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 66k, which is 0 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 66k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.79 million km2, 0.32 million km2, (28.7%) less than the 10 year average of 1.10 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,617 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  474 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,131 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,884 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  832 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  633 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  483 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,341 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,426 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 7.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 117 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.63 million km2, 0.32 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,433,384 KM2 as at 25-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 91k, which is 50 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.47 million km2, 0.36 million km2, (21.6%) more than the 10 year average of 2.11 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  151 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  953 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,975 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  133 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,394 k (10.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,463 k (10.5%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 16.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 121 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.33 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,244,028 KM2 as at 26-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 100k, which is 53 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.89 million km2, 0.26 million km2, (22.8%) less than the 10 year average of 1.15 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,632 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  521 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,277 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,895 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  861 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  678 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  393 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,387 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,475 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 7.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 116 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.61 million km2, 0.34 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,325,428 KM2 as at 26-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 108k, which is 64 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.58 million km2, 0.42 million km2, (15.9%) more than the 10 year average of 2.16 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  202 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,062 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,007 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  9 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,442 k (10.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,519 k (11.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 16.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 120 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.27 million km2, 0.21 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 3rd lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[oren]

Arctic and Antarctic posts were flipped, I reflipped them

[gerontocrat]

Arctic and Antarctic posts were flipped, I reflipped them

Thanks Oren

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,167,324 KM2 as at 27-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 77k, which is 26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.96 million km2, 0.24 million km2, (19.7%) less than the 10 year average of 1.20 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,622 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  541 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,282 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,892 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  910 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  705 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  315 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,404 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,500 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 7.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 115 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.60 million km2, 0.35 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge