Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[gerontocrat]

Jaxa has given us data for 2nd October, but not for the 3rd Oct.

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,034,810 KM2 as at 02-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 71k, which is 56 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.10 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (67.6%) less than the 10 year average of 0.30 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,677 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  913 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  690 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,943 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,022 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  769 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  289 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,384 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,582 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 140 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.46 million km2, 0.49 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 66% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,158,126 KM2 as at 03-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 62k, which is 61 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.26 million km2, 0.26 million km2, (49.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.52 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  392 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  558 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,921 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  189 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,201 k (8.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,488 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 143 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.38 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,091,916 KM2 as at 04-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 66k, which is 62 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.78 million km2, 0.40 million km2, (37.2%) more than the 10 year average of 1.38 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  487 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  583 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,063 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  116 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,260 k (8.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,552 k (10.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 142 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.35 million km2, 0.29 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,033,497 KM2 as at 05-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 58k, which is 54 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.84 million km2, 0.45 million km2, (26.6%) more than the 10 year average of 1.38 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  569 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  638 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,172 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  55 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,306 k (9.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,608 k (11.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 141 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.25 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,006,480 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 27k, which is 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.86 million km2, 0.47 million km2, (22.7%) more than the 10 year average of 1.39 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  589 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  651 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,217 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  18 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,305 k (9.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,628 k (11.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 140 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.30 million km2, 0.24 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[Stephan]

18 k km² more than the lowest year (2023) means 0.14% more ice area.
Probably a #1 place soon to come... ?!?

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,767,600 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 31k, which is 1 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.36 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (3.6%) less than the 10 year average of 0.38 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,897 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,062 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,224 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,225 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,073 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,034 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  358 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,515 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,802 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 135 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,014,635 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2024

- Area gain on this day 8k, which is 36 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.85 million km2, 0.44 million km2, (28.0%) more than the 10 year average of 1.42 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  541 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  621 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,190 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  40 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,268 k (8.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,605 k (11.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 10.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 139 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.25 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,741,993 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 26k, which is 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.39 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (1.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.40 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,912 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,018 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,252 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,225 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,098 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,096 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  319 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,520 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,793 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 134 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,020,903 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2024

- Area gain on this day 6k, which is 34 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.85 million km2, 0.40 million km2, (32.5%) more than the 10 year average of 1.45 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  484 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  625 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,146 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  63 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,245 k (8.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,586 k (10.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 138 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.32 million km2, 0.26 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,712,022 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 30k, which is 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.42 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (1.8%) more than the 10 year average of 0.41 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,911 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,079 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,282 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,238 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,121 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,153 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  323 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,545 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,800 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 133 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,009,462 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 11k, which is 21 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.86 million km2, 0.38 million km2, (34.1%) more than the 10 year average of 1.48 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  453 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  637 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,092 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  107 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,248 k (8.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,574 k (10.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 137 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.33 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,694,016 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 18k, which is 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.44 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (1.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.44 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,840 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,101 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,302 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,196 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,119 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,180 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  356 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,547 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,795 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.56 million km2, 0.39 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  13,005,293 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 4k, which is 29 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.88 million km2, 0.37 million km2, (36.7%) more than the 10 year average of 1.51 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  420 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  617 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,052 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  182 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,237 k (8.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,549 k (10.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 136 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.34 million km2, 0.28 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,690,299 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 4k, which is 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.44 million km2, 0.04 million km2, (8.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.48 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,777 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,085 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,259 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,105 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,079 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,170 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  439 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,532 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,761 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 131 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,984,760 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 21k, which is 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.92 million km2, 0.38 million km2, (36.9%) more than the 10 year average of 1.54 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  409 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  621 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,037 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  260 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,260 k (8.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,535 k (10.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 11.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 135 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.35 million km2, 0.29 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,676,940 KM2 as at 12-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 13k, which is 30 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.45 million km2, 0.07 million km2, (13.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.53 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,741 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,068 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,215 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,019 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,050 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,078 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  462 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,519 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,735 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 130 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,710,360 KM2 as at 13-Oct-2024

- Extent gain on this day 33k, which is 72 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.42 million km2, 0.14 million km2, (25.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.56 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,674 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,027 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,128 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,952 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,003 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  945 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  585 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,457 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,658 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 129 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.58 million km2, 0.37 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,683,631 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 27k, which is 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.45 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (26.0%) less than the 10 year average of 0.60 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,699 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  993 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,124 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,994 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,020 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  895 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  645 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,456 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,654 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 128 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.59 million km2, 0.36 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

An NSIDC update very late yesterday, but no new update today so still 1 day behind schedule

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,956,464 KM2 as at 13-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 12k, which is 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.95 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (37.5%) more than the 10 year average of 1.60 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  356 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  637 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,979 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  430 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,274 k (9.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,498 k (10.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 133 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.38 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC finally gets updates uptodate

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,938,819 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 18k, which is 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 1.97 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (37.3%) more than the 10 year average of 1.62 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  302 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  623 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,981 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  499 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,278 k (9.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,478 k (10.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.40 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,622,756 KM2 as at 15-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 61k, which is 31 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.51 million km2, 0.13 million km2, (19.9%) less than the 10 year average of 0.64 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,768 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,028 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,123 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,048 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,080 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  962 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  629 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,482 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,675 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 127 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.59 million km2, 0.36 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,905,657 KM2 as at 15-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 33k, which is 3 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.00 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (35.6%) more than the 10 year average of 1.65 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  249 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  617 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,007 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  513 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,294 k (9.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,466 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 131 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.41 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,549,166 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 74k, which is 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.58 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (11.8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.66 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,851 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,009 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,163 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,077 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,123 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,011 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  524 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,523 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,718 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 126 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.58 million km2, 0.37 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,857,737 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2024

- Area loss on this day 48k, which is 5 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 2.05 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (33.1%) more than the 10 year average of 1.70 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  216 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  614 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,059 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  515 k MORE than 2023
- AREA is  1,319 k (9.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,464 k (10.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 12.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 130 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.42 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 5th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge