Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,367,074 KM2 as at 18-Nov-2024

- Area loss on this day 101k, which is 37 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 138k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 4.54 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (0.1%) less than the 10 year average of 4.55 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  693 k MORE than 2016
- AREA is  438 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,239 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  9 k LESS than 2023
- AREA is  1,418 k (12.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,156 k (10.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 34.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 97 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.53 million km2, 0.47 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 6th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,862,778 KM2 as at 19-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 124k, which is 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 137k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3.27 million km2, 0.32 million km2, (8.9%) less than the 10 year average of 3.59 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  2,117 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  419 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  639 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,937 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  795 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,069 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  255 k LESS than 2023
- Extent is  1,805 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,433 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 22.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 92 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.71 million km2, 0.24 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,261,824 KM2 as at 19-Nov-2024

- Area loss on this day 105k, which is 30 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 135k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 4.65 million km2, 0.04 million km2, (17.4%) less than the 10 year average of 4.68 million km2.

- AREA is 3rd lowest in the 45 year satellite record,

- AREA is  721 k MORE than 2016
- AREA is  408 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,253 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  15 k LESS than 2023
- AREA is  1,385 k (11.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,137 k (10.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 34.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 96 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.53 million km2, 0.47 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 7th lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum sea ice area of less than 75% of the 1979-2023 record low minimum in that region, that is the minimum used
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Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,769,275 KM2 as at 20-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 94k, which is 53 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 147k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3.36 million km2, 0.37 million km2, (10.0%) less than the 10 year average of 3.74 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 47 year satellite record

- Extent is  2,091 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  530 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  541 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,880 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  718 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,012 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  198 k LESS than 2023
- Extent is  1,768 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,383 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 23.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 91 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.75 million km2, 0.20 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
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Click on image to enlarge