Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[diablobanquisa]

https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234


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ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0192_seaice_trends_climo/total-ice-area-extent/esmr-smmr-ssmi-merged/
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/

[Tigertown]

For Nov. 29th JAXA has posted 11,913,271 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 203,485 km².

[crandles]

1986 was the lowest year for all of Oct and Nov until this year. The 1987 minimum less than 4 months later was above average.

That isn't what we would expect in Arctic where more open water would be expected to have albedo effect trapping more heat that would melt more ice.

Question: Should we expect fast melt out due to low extent or slow Antarctic sea ice decline like 1986/7 over next 4 months?

I don't have any knowledge or much of a clue to offer but wonder: Is low extent at this time of year likely an indicator of low winds failing to push ice away from land. Does this mean the remaining ice spent longer in ice growth latitudes and so is thicker and is therefore harder to melt out?

1986/7 is just one year and could easily be an oddity. Next few lowest years are more mixed but possible still show a small tendency for recovery rather than becoming more extremely low.

Any thoughts anyone?

[Tealight]

1986 was the lowest year for all of Oct and Nov until this year. The 1987 minimum less than 4 months later was above average.

That isn't what we would expect in Arctic where more open water would be expected to have albedo effect trapping more heat that would melt more ice.

Question: Should we expect fast melt out due to low extent or slow Antarctic sea ice decline like 1986/7 over next 4 months?

I don't have any knowledge or much of a clue to offer but wonder: Is low extent at this time of year likely an indicator of low winds failing to push ice away from land. Does this mean the remaining ice spent longer in ice growth latitudes and so is thicker and is therefore harder to melt out?

1986/7 is just one year and could easily be an oddity. Next few lowest years are more mixed but possible still show a small tendency for recovery rather than becoming more extremely low.

Any thoughts anyone?

I'm not an Antarctic expert, but my concentration maps help a lot more than just plain numbers. At the minimum the biggest area of remaining ice is east of the Antarctic Peninsula and somewhat west of the Ross Sea. Everything else is very likely to melt out and would only contribute very little area.

I don't know where 1986 had low sea ice concentrations, but this year looks pretty average in those areas. Maybe its enough for a new record low, but the minimum is already very low and requires almost a complete melt out. 1993 went as low as 1.29 million km² for sea ice area.

Daily updates are working again
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data-antarctic

[Buddy]

I don't know where 1986 had low sea ice concentrations, but this year looks pretty average in those areas. Maybe its enough for a new record low, but the minimum is already very low and requires almost a complete melt out. 1993 went as low as 1.29 million km2 for sea ice area.

The interesting thing to me....will be the effect on global temperatures and SST's as BOTH polar sea ice areas will be at or near record lows at the SAME TIME.

My "logic cap" tells me that can't be good news for temps of the oceans and the atmosphere.  I might suggest that any hoped for downturn or "plateau" in atmospheric temperatures after such a steep 3 year run in atmospheric temperatures.....may be fleeting and short lived at best.

 

[Tigertown]

Antarctica at mid Feb. from 2003-2016
Not really dealing with a lot of MYI

[Wipneus]

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GIOMAS modelled Antarctic sea ice volume until 2012, as plotted by Wipneus:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/giomas[/url]

I have updated most of the graphs there with the latest GIOMAS data that ends with May 2016. Some of them still to go.

Here is the SH anomaly graph showing a sharp drop in volume anomaly in the first few months of 2016 (indicating a slow growth in the first part of the freezing season). Without recovery that is bound to be a factor causing the current low ice cover.

About GIOMAS:

# Data: GIOMAS http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Global_seaice/
# Ref: Zhang, Jinlun and D.A. Rothrock: Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates, Mon. Wea. Rev. 131(5), 681-697, 2003

(click for a bigger picture)

[diablobanquisa]

Thanks for the update, Wipneus!

[diablobanquisa]

Lowest years of the 1973-2016 timeseries (updated until November 29th):

[Tigertown]

For Nov. 30th JAXA has posted 11,697,965 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 215,306 km².

[Wipneus]

Dr. Zhang was kind enough to update the GIOMAS data to the latest full month (October) after I contacted him.

So the graphics need another update, here is the anomaly graph showing a persistent low volume compared with recent years (but not compared with those in the 20th century). 

[Tigertown]

Three and a half months to go to minimum, and the volume anomaly is nearly tied for earlier this year. Ouch!

[Buddy]

So the graphics need another update, here is the anomaly graph showing a persistent low volume compared with recent years (but not compared with those in the 20th century). 

That will be interesting to watch over the next couple of years, if it continues to stay persistently low....

[Wipneus]

Three and a half months to go to minimum, and the volume anomaly is nearly tied for earlier this year. Ouch!

Right it is anomaly, the absolute volume numbers show that there is still long way to go (but we are starting off far lower than e.g. last year)

[Tigertown]

Three and a half months to go to minimum, and the volume anomaly is nearly tied for earlier this year. Ouch!

Right it is anomaly, the absolute volume numbers show that there is still long way to go (but we are starting off far lower than e.g. last year)

Gotcha. It's early morning here and I tried to put my brain in gear before the oil warmed up.

In anomalies for dummies terms; it was low earlier this year compared to what it would have normally been at the time, and is low now compared to what it should be now, but to a slightly lesser degree.

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 1st JAXA has posted 11,508,508 km² for the SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 189,457 km².

Melt momentum.

[Lord M Vader]

For the last three days the SIE drops around Antarctica were according to NSIDC:

Nov. 29: -284K
Nov. 30: -151K
Dec. 1:   -180K

We continue to be lowest on record.

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 2nd JAXA has posted 11,318,272 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 190,236 km².

[Lord M Vader]

NSIDC reports a drop of 156K today.

/LMV

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 3rd JAXA has posted 10,999,093 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

That makes for a large drop of  319,179 km².

[magnamentis]

For Dec. 3rd JAXA has posted 10,999,093 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

That makes for a large drop of  319,179 km².

yeah, certainly there were not that many of those in the past, at least not at this time of the season.

[diablobanquisa]

Lowest years of the 1973-2016 time series (updated until December 3rd) :

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 4th JAXA has posted 10,787,419 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 211,674 km².

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 5th JAXA has posted 10,615,432 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

This is a drop of 171,987 km².

[Sarat]

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 6th JAXA has posted 10,450,939 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 164,493 km².

[Andre]

@Tigertown: I wanted to thank you for your continued efforts in posting the daily Antarctic SIE. It is much appreciated and a welcome addition to the forum. I hope you will continue posting your daily updates.

[Gray-Wolf]

Though it is quite reasonable to put down this years 'odd' low ice situation to mere 'variability' in the climate.

That said if the 'reasons' given for the slow growth in Antarctic sea ice, since the early 80's, are to be believed then the opposite of that impact would cause a rapid drop off in ice extent around Antarctica back to levels common in the 70's?

We know the Ozone hole is mending and we know the IPO flipped positive in 2014.

Add into that the extra warmth in our world since the 70's we might even be looking for extent to fall below the 70's values?

So keep up the good work Tigertown! we may be watching a very important event unfolding

[Tigertown]

Thank you all for your kindness , but I do have to say, true credit has to go to LMV, who opened this thread with perfect timing. And it does seem it will be an exceptional year for Antarctica.

[oren]

I can't shake the feeling that the sharp drop in Antarctic sea ice is related to the El-Nino of last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it bounce back up in a year or two.
Regardless of the cause, a very low extent of sea ice can have a large impact even if it's only for one year. Open water could heat up under insolation and help calve ice shelves, and potentially could help move away some calved icebergs that have been hanging around for ages, thus reducing buttressing on future glacier flow. Just some hunches, nothing scientific here. But this year could cause some major damage.

[magnamentis]

I can't shake the feeling that the sharp drop in Antarctic sea ice is related to the El-Nino of last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it bounce back up in a year or two.
Regardless of the cause, a very low extent of sea ice can have a large impact even if it's only for one year. Open water could heat up under insolation and help calve ice shelves, and potentially could help move away some calved icebergs that have been hanging around for ages, thus reducing buttressing on future glacier flow. Just some hunches, nothing scientific here. But this year could cause some major damage.

relation as you see it is certainly true while it's still lower than before under similar circumstances. GLOBAL warming will more sooner than later lead to lower and lower lows while the up and down from year to year, due to other factors will continue for sure and after the latest el nino and it's aftermath, chance for a rebound is most probably but the trends will be downwards in the long run.

we shold always put into account that we are looking at accelerated processes that in the past took millenia if not longer to take place and the faster changes happen the steeper the up and downs will look on any graph. i hope the basic meaning is understandable of what i want to say while there are certainly many members who can explain this better and in better english.

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 7th JAXA has posted 10,249,836 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 201,103 km².
Dec. 1-7

[oren]

...i hope the basic meaning is understandable of what i want to say while there are certainly many members who can explain this better and in better english.

You are perfectly understandable and your English is just fine.

[Lord M Vader]

For the last couple of days, the drops are as follows:

December 3: -284K
December 4: -230K
December 5: -211K
December 6: -215K
December 7: -172K

The value for December 7 is 10,166 Mn km².

If we want to keep the first place when 2017 begins we need to see another drop of about 4,2 Mn km². The lowest value on record at New Year is 5,967 Mn km² which was reached by January 1 in 1980. That means that we need to lose about 175K every day. Should be a tough mission to fulfill despite that we are lowest on record today, but certainly not impossible.

For the next two weeks or so, the biggest losses should be east of the West Antarctic peninsula.

[Tigertown]

Whoa!

For Dec. 8th JAXA has posted 9,976,242 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 273,594 km².

[Tigertown]

...i hope the basic meaning is understandable of what i want to say while there are certainly many members who can explain this better and in better english.

You are perfectly understandable and your English is just fine.

And I can add to that; I always look forward to your input magnamentis.

[Darvince]

Whoa!

For Dec. 8th JAXA has posted 9,976,242 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 273,594 km².

oh my god it seems to be keeping up perfectly with staying around 1 million km² below the old record

We should continue to see huge extent drops over the next few days as the ice on the eastern side of the hook north of the Weddell polynya (not exactly a polynya anymore) as it blinks out of vision of JAXA.

[magnamentis]

...i hope the basic meaning is understandable of what i want to say while there are certainly many members who can explain this better and in better english.

You are perfectly understandable and your English is just fine.

And I can add to that; I always look forward to your input magnamentis.

thanks sir, did you ever consider what may happen soon, once the antarcic costs becomes more or less "blue", what will happen once more and significant amounts of rock (land) surface becomes exposed to sunlight and relatively early in the season as that? i suspect that there is a certain possibility to see an acceleration of land-ice melting soon ( similar to greenland) that would contribute significantly to SLR.

not directly releated to extend but less extent that early will have a huge impact on albedo IMO while i lack the necessary education to understand how all that is related, what do you think?

[Tigertown]

For my part, I think the Whole climate is connected and that what happens in one place effects the other. I believe there is a tele-connection between the Arctic and Antarctic. What I have my doubts about is the strength of the sunlight that is to be absorbed in the extreme south compared to the Arctic areas. Still, it should at least contribute to the overall situation.

[Lord M Vader]

For December 8, NSIDC has a triple century break, down with -316K and is now at 9,850 Mn km².The 5-day average for December 8 is however 10,334 Mn km².

Second lowest year on record is now 1982 which for December 8 had a SIE of 11,313 Mn km². For the last 10 days or so in December, 1979 holds the value for the lowest on record.

December 30 in 1979 had a SIE of 6,376 Mn km² with can be compared to the average of 7,598 Mn km² for the same date.

[Buddy]

For my part, I think the Whole climate is connected and that what happens in one place effects the other. I believe there is a tele-connection between the Arctic and Antarctic. What I have my doubts about is the strength of the sunlight that is to be absorbed in the extreme south compared to the Arctic areas. Still, it should at least contribute to the overall situation.

No different than pouring in hot water in one corner of a pool.  EVENTUALLY....it effects THE WHOLE POOL.

What "concerns" me most right now....is the large deficiency in sea ice.....and the additional amount of heat that the southern oceans are now being FORCED to absorb.  That is going to speed up melting of the shelf ice and the movement of the glaciers towards the ocean.  I think we're heading deeper and deeper into the global warming wilderness.

I thought we might get to a "turning point" this past summer with the Arctic....but that petered out.  We're getting a lot closer now....

[diablobanquisa]

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 9th JAXA has posted 9,720,337 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 255,905 km².

[Buddy]

If I take a look at the following chart with the COMBINED global sea ice levels that include both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice levels....with the blue line being the average from 1981 - 2010, and the red line being the 2016 combined sea ice levels.....there are a few "obvious things" that stick out....but the most obvious is this:

That "second peak" during the fall....when the Arctic was at its minimum AND the Antarctic was at its "maximum for the year".........is SOOOOOO much lower than the "normal".  Of course, it was a combination of the 2nd lowest Arctic minimum....PLUS....a low Antarctic maximum.  It will be fascinating to see if it is significantly below the level from LAST February during the Antarctic minimum.

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 10th JAXA has posted 9,398,098 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 322,239 km².

  We started this month with 11,508,508 km². More than 2 million km² gone in 9 days.

[Carex]

The value for December 7 is 10,166  Dec 10 is 9,398 Mn km².

If we want to keep the first place when 2017 begins we need to see another drop of about 4,2  3.4 Mn km². The lowest value on record at New Year is 5,967 Mn km² which was reached by January 1 in 1980. That means that we need to lose about 175K 163k every day. Should be a tough mission to fulfill despite that we are lowest on record today, but certainly not impossible.

Getting easier every day (so far).

[Buddy]

Getting easier every day (so far).

Thanks for the update....

We are going to be in the age of "expect the unexpected" for many decades I'm afraid.  And by unexpected....I mean unexpectedly MORE melt.  At what level do the scientists go "oh shit"....this is REALLY BAD NEWS (I would assert that many are already there....and others will get their soon).

Momentum is a powerful thing....

[Tigertown]

Carex, I may be wrong, but I think you might be comparing JAXA numbers to NSIDC numbers.  LMV usually posts NSIDC. These have been running pretty close lately, but not the same.

[Tigertown]

For Dec. 11th JAXA  has posted 9,078,802 km² for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 319,296 km².

Wondering now how many of these triple century drops does December have in store. We might have to start abbreviating them as tcd's.

[Darvince]

To me it would seem that there are not many left, unless the area of rather solid ice north of the Ross Ice Shelf loses its integrity.