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diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #250 on: January 10, 2017, 04:35:44 PM »
2017, 01,  08,      4694000 sq km
2017, 01,  09,      4597000 sq km






Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #251 on: January 11, 2017, 01:48:03 PM »
No SIE update yet, but only the image.

Buddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #252 on: January 11, 2017, 02:40:23 PM »
One thing to keep in mind....especially this year with the Antarctic sea ice area at record low levels....is that the southern oceans will be the first place that is impacted by the low level of sea ice.

I watch SST's pretty closely....and I will continue watching SST's going forward for the next few months.  This year should have provided a nice "punch" of heat into the southern oceans becaue of the lack of sea ice around Antarctica.  Below is the SST from Jan 9th.  The warm anomalies in the southern oceans have been intensifying over the past 4 - 6 weeks. 

 
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diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #253 on: January 11, 2017, 05:52:23 PM »

2017, 01,  09,      4597000 sq km
2017, 01,  10,      4426000 sq km





Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #254 on: January 11, 2017, 06:12:18 PM »
After a 171K drop we are now down to 4,426 Mn km2. We are still lowest on record but the margin to other years have shrunken a lot and it's not impossible that we will lose the first place in a few days or so.

Most of the sea ice in the Ross Sea is 0,7 m or less, but with a onth left I find it quite hard to believe that all of that ice will melt out. So my forecast is that we will get a very low minimum but not a record low one.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 11:12:04 PM by Lord M Vader »

Darvince

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #255 on: January 12, 2017, 07:58:03 AM »
IJIS for today and yesterday came out, huge double century drop to 4.27, I'll let Tigertown post the detailed numbers. The Ross sea ice is definitely going fast now...

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #256 on: January 12, 2017, 10:18:09 AM »
Thanks Darvince. I just checked a couple hours ago, but I guess it was like a watched pot trying to boil.

For Jan. 11th JAXA has posted 4,267,245 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 346,746 km2 from the extent on the 9th.

Pavel

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #257 on: January 12, 2017, 10:21:51 AM »
Weather conditions and forecast are adverse for melting only in Bellingshausen sea because of colder air. In Weddel sea ice is spreading but melting continues. Other areas melt rapidly. I think the ice in the Ross sea will melt out completely, also there will be significant ice loss in Casey-Dumont. Everything goes to the new record low extent

Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #258 on: January 12, 2017, 04:48:58 PM »
If the ECMWF 00z op run is correct, then the sea ice in Ross Sea will be hammered by a 960-965 hpa cyclone in 48 hours. Most of the ice is about 0,5-0,7 m thick (see attached pic, courtesy Copernicus) there so the cyclone should have potential to do damage to the ice there.

One question of importance is how many km2 that area make up? Anyone who knows?

And does anyone know where I find the forecast that shows the evolution of the sea ice thickness around Antarctica?

NSIDC reports a drop of 150K today and we are now at 4,426 Mn km2. We are still lowest on record.

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #259 on: January 12, 2017, 05:24:28 PM »
Right at the top of your image, where it says "Time" is where you adjust to the future date. It will go about a week or so forward at most.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #260 on: January 12, 2017, 06:50:19 PM »
Thanks again Tigertown :) Well, if the forecast from Copernicus holds then this is what will remain of the big sea ice "block" in the Ross Sea by January 21:


frankendoodle

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #261 on: January 12, 2017, 09:53:07 PM »
JAXA SIE data:

1997 (record low year) took 36 days to go from 4.25 M km2 (1/13) to 2.25 km2 (2/19). That's an average of ~55K km2 per day.

If 2017 hits it's minimum on 2/19 then it only needs an average of ~52K km2 per day to tie. Or if it melts at the same rate as 1997 will hit a minimum of ~2.08M km2 on 2/19.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 10:20:22 PM by frankendoodle »

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #262 on: January 13, 2017, 05:28:00 AM »
For Jan. 12th JAXA has posted 4,100,561 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 166,684 km2.

kiwichick16

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #263 on: January 13, 2017, 06:02:41 AM »
@ tigertown.....so that's 3 days times 50 ish

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #264 on: January 13, 2017, 09:02:09 AM »
Actually, that is just a one day drop.

kiwichick16

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #265 on: January 13, 2017, 12:03:50 PM »
@ tigertown ....yes .....sorry ....I was referring to the post by Frankendoodle .....saying 50 thousand ish per day would take us to a new record low


Paddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #266 on: January 13, 2017, 01:11:39 PM »
Yes, although we can expect this curve to flatten out as it nears bottom.

diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #267 on: January 13, 2017, 02:20:26 PM »

2017, 01, 10,      4426000 sq km
2007, 01, 11,      4276000 sq km
2007, 01, 12,      4026000 sq km








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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #268 on: January 13, 2017, 06:51:27 PM »
Like the curve is supposed to flatten as the year progresses. Methinks both poles have been mocking us for some time.
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charles_oil

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #269 on: January 13, 2017, 09:40:11 PM »
Diab - I assume these are 2017 daily figures (not 2007) ?  Rather than the 5 day avg on Chartic

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #270 on: January 13, 2017, 10:39:19 PM »
Diab - I assume these are 2017 daily figures (not 2007) ?  Rather than the 5 day avg on Chartic
Those are the daily numbers.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/SH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #271 on: January 14, 2017, 04:38:40 AM »
For Jan. 13th JAXA has posted 3,949,764 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 150,797 km2.

diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #272 on: January 14, 2017, 09:41:54 PM »
Diab - I assume these are 2017 daily figures (not 2007) ?  Rather than the 5 day avg on Chartic
Yes, 2017 NSIDC daily numbers (2007 was a typo)


A smaller drop today:

2017, 01, 12,      4026000 sq km
2017, 01, 13,      3980000 sq km





Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #273 on: January 15, 2017, 04:24:27 AM »
For Jan. 14th JAXA has posted 3,784,027 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 165,737 km2.

frankendoodle

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #274 on: January 15, 2017, 05:51:19 AM »
Using 1997 as a template (rate of melt and minimum date) 2017's minimum would occur on 2/19 and be a record 1.95M km2.

Pavel

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #275 on: January 15, 2017, 08:40:23 AM »
SSTs are warmer than usual and continue to heat up.The melting season could be longer than usual as well as weaker start of the freezing season
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 08:46:54 AM by Pavel »

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #276 on: January 15, 2017, 03:52:22 PM »
Quote
SSTs are warmer than usual and continue to heat up.The melting season could be longer than usual as well as weaker start of the freezing season

STRONGLY agree.  The southern portions of ALL 3 MAJOR OCEANS have had their warm anomalies intensify AND broaden over the last 8 weeks.

The start of the Antarctic melt season was EARLY AND EMPHATIC.  I would NOT be surprised to see the melt season in the Antarctic last longer than usual.  We all know...that over time, the melt seasons ARE getting longer the more the planet warms.  But this year especially with such low sea ice levels in Antarctica.....there has to be a lot more heat that "should" push the melt season longer than normal (other things being equal).
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oren

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #277 on: January 15, 2017, 04:11:42 PM »
SSTs are warmer than usual and continue to heat up.The melting season could be longer than usual as well as weaker start of the freezing season

Early melt - albedo loss - warmer SSTs (from Tealight's site)



diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #278 on: January 15, 2017, 06:04:52 PM »
2017, 01, 13,      3980000 sq km
2017, 01, 14,      3838000 sq km





Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #279 on: January 16, 2017, 05:54:28 AM »
For Jan. 15th JAXA has posted 3,639,804 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 144,223 km2.

JAXA has not updated imagery in a few days, so here is two images from CMEMS
« Last Edit: January 16, 2017, 06:07:26 AM by Tigertown »

Paddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #280 on: January 16, 2017, 08:41:29 AM »
Lot of thin ice still there to melt, especially in the rocking-horse shaped bit well offshore on the pacific side. Also, another poll category dropped.

magnamentis

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #281 on: January 16, 2017, 10:55:34 AM »
Lot of thin ice still there to melt, especially in the rocking-horse shaped bit well offshore on the pacific side. Also, another poll category dropped.

you say it, looking at those images one could think that we could end up somewhere not much above zero ice and then looking at the graphs trajectories it does not look much better.

honestly i don't believe that we go much below 2M but still it's and eerie scenario all over both poles. globally we have passed all minimums and are heading straight for some kind of ice collapse. i just hope we shall get a cool and cloudy summer up north, else we shall be in for trouble.
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diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #282 on: January 16, 2017, 06:36:46 PM »

2017, 01, 14,      3838000 sq km
2017, 01, 15,      3642000 sq km




Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #283 on: January 16, 2017, 07:04:11 PM »
The only two areas that have a decent chance to melt out significantly until the minimum is reached is Ross Sea and the adjacent Somov Sea. In the Weddell Sea most of the ice is fairly "thick" with about more than 1.0 m which I seriously doubt wll melt very much until minimum. However, compaction might happen and lower the SIE number.

Attached pics are the modelled sea ice thickness in the Ross and Somov Sea for Jan 16 and the forecast for Jan 25. Anyone who has a decent guess to stimate how many km2 we should lose up to Jan 25 due to the pics?

FYI, NSIDC 5-day average are now below 4 Mn km2 while the daily value is at 3,642 Mn km2.

Buddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #284 on: January 16, 2017, 07:05:44 PM »
Quote
honestly i don't believe that we go much below 2M but still it's and eerie scenario all over both poles. globally we have passed all minimums and are heading straight for some kind of ice collapse. i just hope we shall get a cool and cloudy summer up north, else we shall be in for trouble.

I agree....although getting close to 1.5 is possible IF the ocean waters affect is greater than expected.  1.5 would be a REAL SHOCKER.... and I have to believe would pretty much scare the bejeebees out of many climate scientists.

Again....it's always hard to deal with levels that have never been seen before.  It's all just varying degrees of "unseen".

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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #285 on: January 16, 2017, 07:38:46 PM »
The waters around Antarctica will continue to warm in the coming days and may change the melt momentum.
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magnamentis

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #286 on: January 16, 2017, 08:34:06 PM »
Quote
honestly i don't believe that we go much below 2M but still it's and eerie scenario all over both poles. globally we have passed all minimums and are heading straight for some kind of ice collapse. i just hope we shall get a cool and cloudy summer up north, else we shall be in for trouble.

I agree....although getting close to 1.5 is possible IF the ocean waters affect is greater than expected.  1.5 would be a REAL SHOCKER.... and I have to believe would pretty much scare the bejeebees out of many climate scientists.

Again....it's always hard to deal with levels that have never been seen before.  It's all just varying degrees of "unseen".

seconding every single word. perhaps we should come up (invent) a new abbreviation like:

ABRUPT SEA ICE LOSS = ASIL :-)

followed by an ASLR of course !
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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #287 on: January 17, 2017, 05:33:42 AM »
For Jan. 16th JAXA has posted 3,514,601 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 125,203 km2.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #288 on: January 17, 2017, 06:06:15 PM »
For Jan. 16 NSIDC reports a drop of 149K down to 3,493 Mn km2.

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #289 on: January 18, 2017, 05:30:50 AM »
For Jan. 17th JAXA has posted 3,410,505 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 104,096 km2.


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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #290 on: January 18, 2017, 07:20:56 AM »
From the animation, most of the extent loss seems to be happening in the offshore ice in the Ross sea, rather than in the ice that's relatively fast to the shore of the rest of the continent. I wonder how far losing that completely would take us, and how much extent loss might slow down once it's gone.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 07:54:49 AM by Paddy »

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #291 on: January 19, 2017, 05:25:28 AM »
For Jan. 18th JAXA has posted 3,313,301 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 97,204 km2.

kiwichick16

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #292 on: January 19, 2017, 08:04:53 AM »
30 days of melt season left??

@ 100,000 sq kms per day ??

=  zero sea ice  20 th February 2017  ??????????????????????????

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #293 on: January 19, 2017, 11:13:57 AM »
30 days of melt season left??

@ 100,000 sq kms per day ??

=  zero sea ice  20 th February 2017  ??????????????????????????

That's a lot of befuddled emojis kiwichick!

As January gives way to February, the rate of melt will most likely slow, due to reduced insolation. For the rest of January, assuming an average drop of 100,000 sq kms daily, we would be at 2.1 million sq kms. by February 1. Afterward, the average daily melt will likely slow, but the final number could be below 1.5 million sq kms.

Darvince

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #294 on: January 19, 2017, 11:26:25 AM »
The average drop for the rest of the month should be rather slow compared to recent days as the area where the extent was dropping fast, the shattered and scattered ice north of the Ross Ice Shelf, is almost gone.

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #295 on: January 19, 2017, 12:04:57 PM »
I feel the joker in the pack is the ice in the Weddell embayment? If enough of that is now prone to melt we could go very low this year?
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #296 on: January 19, 2017, 02:33:30 PM »
The Weddell sea ice is prone to melt much more than usual. It's really warm around antarctica due to dropped albedo. The radiation balance in february in terms of open water or low-concentrated ice is enough to accumulate even more heat.

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #297 on: January 20, 2017, 04:43:24 AM »
For Jan. 19th JAXA has posted 3,237,501 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 75,800 km2.

diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #298 on: January 20, 2017, 11:34:22 AM »
2017, 01, 15,      3642000 sq km
2017, 01, 16,      3493000 sq km
2017, 01, 17       3421000 sq km
2017, 01, 18       3340000 sq km







Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #299 on: January 21, 2017, 05:25:11 AM »
For Jan. 20th JAXA has posted 3,162,585 km2.

Down by 74,916 km2.