The Lincoln polynya is opening up, but not through the normal mechanism of a bridge holding back flow down Nares. Over the last few days there has been a prevailing SW wind up Nares Strait, which is pushing back the ice in the Lincoln Sea. The polynya has reached around 2500 km^2 (50km x 50km).
This implies to me that the ice in the Lincoln Sea is very fractured. In past years I've seen it easily hold a bridge. This year, when flow was down the Strait after the bridge broke, fracture lines were evident far out into the Lincoln Sea. Now, that fractured ice is not holding. It's possible to see signs of melting in the polynya - at
NASA Worldview. There appear to be trailing melt from the floes and the edge of the ice is very smooth implying wave action is melting this. On the 9th the wind was 44 km/h at 3 degrees C.
The forecast for the next 5 days on
Nullschool is continuing winds from this direction and temperatures above freezing, so this should continue to grow.