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Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread  (Read 580956 times)

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1450 on: March 19, 2019, 11:21:03 AM »
gradual attrition perhaps. I think the edges (and possibly more) get thinner over time.
Is it still 'soon' then?

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1451 on: March 19, 2019, 11:31:12 AM »
Here you go Oren:

Comparison between the arch shape on Feb 16th and its shape now:
 A: 2019-02-26 (left hand)
 B: 2019-03-18 (right hand)


There is data missing around the 15th of March. NASA Worldview would not create a GIF for this timeframe. :-/

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1452 on: March 19, 2019, 12:12:36 PM »
The full moon is coming up again tomorrow. johnm33 may be right.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1453 on: March 19, 2019, 03:12:46 PM »
Nighttime Imagery (Day/Night Band, Enhanced Near Constant Contrast), Suomi NPP / VIIRS

01.03. to 19.03.2019

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1454 on: March 19, 2019, 04:08:18 PM »
Thanks for the responses! I agree, gradual attrition, not a good sign for the structural integrity of the arch.

be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1455 on: March 19, 2019, 09:00:44 PM »
It certainly looks like Nares is fully open for business and Lincoln's older ice is about to rejoin the race to oblivion . The resumption of old ice heading south at this time of year is more dramatic than what has been happening over the last month . Cheers though to all the watchers .. you have kept us informed and entertained .. b.c.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 02:19:20 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1456 on: March 20, 2019, 04:26:48 PM »
The Nares Strait Poohsticks Race is over.  We return to regular programming.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1457 on: March 21, 2019, 07:38:29 PM »
Something dramatic just happened to the arch.

It looks like A) a breakdown and B) abrupt freezing of the free sea?

Sentinel-1 SAR imagery
20-03-2019 19:03:31 UTC vs. 21-03-2019 13:12:41 UTC

Link >> http://bslmagb.nerc-bas.ac.uk/iwsviewer/?image=DataPolarview/111_S1jpeg2000_201903/S1B_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20190321T131241_AFD4_N_1.8bit.jp2
« Last Edit: March 21, 2019, 08:03:45 PM by b_lumenkraft »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1458 on: March 21, 2019, 08:47:00 PM »
B_,
I noticed the recently mobilized 'rim floes' moved about 25 km between the March 19 and 20 DMI images.  From the pair of images in your gif, they move (up to) an additional 45 km between 20th and 21st. (Wow! That's fast within Lincoln Sea.)  The entire arch on the NNW side of the polynya moved about 0.3 km between March 19 and 20, and about 25 km the next day!  (At that acceleration, tomorrow … ::) )  It wasn't a 'collapse' so much as it moved along a few transverse faults.  I think the "abrupt freezing" you mention is freezing, but more, per my 'lay' interpretation, turbulence caused the brand-new ice to appear mottled-white when viewed by Sentinel radar.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1459 on: March 21, 2019, 08:59:07 PM »
Wow, thanks for the info Tor.

Let's hope the clouds allow sight on NASA Worldview tomorrow.

Rim foes should have entered the strait by then at this speed.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1460 on: March 21, 2019, 10:24:56 PM »
Wow. Lack of structural integrity indeed. This behavior is quite rare after more than a month of stability under deep-freeze conditions. The arch is gone and I doubt it will make a comeback this year - the date is late and the setup is bad.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1461 on: March 21, 2019, 11:11:00 PM »
Too thin to cope with the tide/additional current perhaps. Similar to shape to last month. but smaller than 2 months ago.
Worldview, terra/modis, mar19-21.  https://go.nasa.gov/2YavtD7
edit: so where does the 4m ice start?
« Last Edit: March 21, 2019, 11:39:49 PM by uniquorn »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1462 on: March 22, 2019, 05:13:16 AM »
Interesting, Worldview shows 'absolute' collapse! (Maybe collapse happened after the radar image [gif] b_lumenkraft posted?)
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1463 on: March 22, 2019, 05:22:38 AM »
I'm pretty sure this terra/modis shot Uniquorn posted must have been shot after the Sentinel image i posted.

Not sure if you can't see the collapse in the Sentinel pic though.

(click to play)
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 05:35:25 AM by b_lumenkraft »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1464 on: March 22, 2019, 09:57:13 AM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1465 on: March 22, 2019, 12:10:52 PM »
In Jim's blog post you can see there is no 4m ice in this area.

Todays Nighttime Imagery (Day/Night Band, Enhanced Near Constant Contrast) Suomi NPP / VIIRS

Still some clouds around but i think this is the new shape of the arch.

According to Earth.nullschool we'll see winds from west to east next days in this area which might move the ice in the north further east. So my guess is this might degrade even further.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 12:22:54 PM by b_lumenkraft »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1466 on: March 22, 2019, 12:43:08 PM »
In Jim's blog post you can see there is no 4m ice in this area. <snippage>
Apologies, I should have said 3.5m. I was thinking of this post ;)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2592.msg191642.html#msg191642

and cryosat feb19-mar19

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1467 on: March 22, 2019, 02:56:51 PM »
New new old ice entering the strait. Already!

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1468 on: March 22, 2019, 05:34:23 PM »
Better satellite shot just came in.

The new shape of the arch is way bigger than drawn in my previous post.

In the clouds in this pic you can nicely see how the wind blows over the area from west to east driving the ice further east. You can see a huge crack forming in the northeast of Kap Kane (where the ice is thickest at ~4m).

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1469 on: March 22, 2019, 05:58:11 PM »
Possibly a similar size to the weakened area from 2mths (moons?) ago.
What is the cause? Tides combined with warmer water from depth?
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 06:03:43 PM by uniquorn »

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1470 on: March 22, 2019, 10:43:08 PM »
The cause? My guess is that the Atlantic waters that seem to be 'colonising' the depths of the CAA are being both sucked in to and pushed back out of Nares by tidal forces. I'm less than certain about what coincidence of circustances need to be aligned for this to happen but it is very rare when the tidal range is low. So it seems the pressure forced up Nares from Baffin by tides/atmospherics is essential but not sufficient. One other factor is the extreme turbulence that can be expected from Atlantic waters in this vicinity. The tidal surges from the Atlantic penetrating Fram are not in sync with those in north Baffin, so maybe the Atl. waters arrive, on occasion, just as the tidal surge reaches the northern limits of Nares?

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1471 on: March 23, 2019, 09:20:58 AM »
One potential scenario that could save Nares this year is the new old ice racing down the strait creating a traffic jam in Kane Basin and generating a southern arch. Highly doubtful IMHO but still possible.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1472 on: March 23, 2019, 04:38:55 PM »
"new old ice" is a term I invented for a recent poll (although others may have invented it earlier).  As it is getting used, maybe, some day, it will belong in the ASIF glossary.  Is this definition adequate? [If the phrase 'sticks', we'll be seeing NOI soon.]

"new old ice" = year old or older 'thick' ice floes that move into an area with only very young ice (less than a few months old, so relatively thin).  This can happen in the Nares Strait during the winter or spring when the Lincoln Sea Polynya arch holds for a while, allowing the Strait to be flushed of most 'old ice' floes, then the Polynya's arch breaks and 'new old ice' enters the Strait.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 11:42:24 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1473 on: March 23, 2019, 05:13:48 PM »
Polarview midday yesterday. Maybe they will dislodge 'slowpoke' on the way down (or crumble at the thought)

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1474 on: March 23, 2019, 06:38:06 PM »
Tor, the definition is great, and indeed the "new old ice" came smoothly to mind as I was typing the previous reply. So I guess you made an instant hit.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1475 on: March 23, 2019, 06:54:10 PM »
I agree! :)

In other news, the new old ice that broke off before the collapse, i'm calling them The Four Longjohns, have now completely entered the strait.

Sentinel-1 SAR imagery - Acquired: 23-03-2019 11:17:59 UTC

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1476 on: March 23, 2019, 10:37:04 PM »
where does the 3.5m ice start?
worldview, nares, terra/modis default, contrast, clahe, mar23

etienne

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1477 on: March 24, 2019, 08:06:47 AM »
Hello,

Am I totally lost or is there a dramatic change since this topic has started (2013)? Looks like what is happening now used to be during the summer. We didn't even really start the melting season yet.

Thanks,

Etienne

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1478 on: March 24, 2019, 11:27:37 AM »
Etienne, this post shows Nares from 2000-2019 for comparison.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg192209.html#msg192209

Significant movement since yesterday. Worldview viirsbt15n mar23-24.
A wider view showing the possible location of thicker ice between the small fractures. Worldview mar24.  https://go.nasa.gov/2Wr2t8v
Third image showing bathymetry/topography. (NOAA)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1479 on: March 24, 2019, 11:41:22 AM »
Here is worldview Terra/Modis, least cloudy days between mar16-20, 2000-2019.

Thanks uniquorn. An excellent resource!

Can I put a copy up over at GWC?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1480 on: March 24, 2019, 12:39:42 PM »
Great post uniquorn! I'm only now realizing the shallowness there must have had an impact on the shape of the arch.

So, let's break down the variables available:

- Tidal forces, causing the sea ice to move horizontally (mainly).
- Current forces, pushing the ice vertically, but also horizontally in this area (because it's getting more shallow, pressure on ice from below increases).
- Winds, pushing the ice vertically (mainly).
- The structural integrity of the arch depending on the shape, thickness and homogeneity of the ice.

Is that it or are there any more? And how do they interact exactly? And which of them are the strongest/weakest impact wise?

Edit: One more variable could be underwater waves as mentioned here by JohnM33:

Edit 2: Even more variables, thanks uniquorn:
- Water temperature and salinity impacts ice quality so this should mainly influence the structural integrity
- Upwelling, adds to current forces
- Air temps, long term but not quite yet
- The speed of breakups/collapses (domino effect)
« Last Edit: March 24, 2019, 06:36:00 PM by b_lumenkraft »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1481 on: March 24, 2019, 02:08:44 PM »
Can I put a copy up
Yes, of course.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1482 on: March 24, 2019, 04:03:59 PM »
So, let's break down the variables available: <snippage>
you could add water temperature and salinity
upwelling (probably need FOoW for that) covered by 2 and 3?
air temps have been consistently low but will play a larger part soon, as will solar.

edit: maybe something to be gained from ascat, jan1-mar23 enlarged and enhanced.
It looks like the arch may have been under considerable pressure from the speed of collapse.
(or the ice around it was very weak)
« Last Edit: March 24, 2019, 05:36:47 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1483 on: March 24, 2019, 06:48:06 PM »
The arch and the nearest crack in the east is now only approximately 100 km apart.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1484 on: March 25, 2019, 05:02:30 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1485 on: March 25, 2019, 06:05:40 PM »
Re: List of variables (Post 1480)

The image below shows the wind at 21.03. the day the arch broke down.

I was thinking if the ice in the west of the arch was pushed towards the east, and the ice in the west was pushed north, there could also be some warping going on here.

Let me know what you all think, please.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2019, 06:16:40 PM by b_lumenkraft »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1486 on: March 25, 2019, 06:45:19 PM »
Re: List of variables (Post 1480)

The image below shows the wind at 21.03. the day the arch broke down.

I was thinking if the ice in the west of the arch was pushed towards the east, and the ice in the west was pushed north, there could also be some warping going on here.

Let me know what you all think, please.
Equinox + super full moon on 20th March. Extra strong spring tides? e.g. Severn Bore (England) was a monster 5 star event at high tide on 22nd March.
All part of the mix ?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1487 on: March 25, 2019, 07:43:07 PM »
Equinox + super full moon on 20th March. Extra strong spring tides? e.g. Severn Bore (England) was a monster 5 star event at high tide on 22nd March.
All part of the mix ?

Supermoon in recent years:

2019 Jan 21 - Big breakup at Jan 20 (GIF 1)
2019 Feb 19 - No significant change
2019 Mar 21 - Big breakup at Mar 21 (see posts above)

2018 Jan 02 - No significant change
2018 Jan 31 - Hard to say with the clouds but some minor breakups i think

2017 Dec 03 - No arch

2016 Nov 14 - Big breakup, but very inhomogeneous ice to begin with. This one is not representative imho.
2016 Dec 14 - Breakups Dec 14 to 16 (GIF 2)

There is at least a tendency, no?

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1488 on: March 26, 2019, 02:14:42 PM »
It looks like tidal has more impact on collapse and wind has more on formation. Pressure may also need to build up at the entrance to the strait. Hycom compressional strength (for the ice) would be handy in this area.

Slippage down the shear lines over the last 2 days then the large fracture top right. Not sure if that is indicative of thicker ice or rapid drift as it fractured there during the previous break up. The eastern shear line was very close to the north Greenland fracture(very top right) before the compression released.
Worldview viirsbt15n mar24-26

edit: Bottom arch doesn't look likely for a while https://go.nasa.gov/2WlRs8c (and other late edits)
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 02:52:43 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1489 on: March 26, 2019, 03:22:51 PM »
Let me know what you all think, please.
One possible scenario...
Most years there is a shear line across the middle of the Lincoln sea and thick CAA ice slowly makes its way eastwards towards the Fram Strait. Sometimes one or more of your variables compresses more ice southwards towards the Nares. High tides push compression over the limit, likely to be a lower vertical limit, then collapse follows.
I suspect that stationary ice closer to the Nares on the west side is weakened by warmer, more saline water forced up from below and is more vulnerable.
example of the west to east shear line feb26 - apologies for late edits
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 03:39:56 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1490 on: March 26, 2019, 03:30:29 PM »

That makes a lot of sense Uniquorn! Thank you very much.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1491 on: March 28, 2019, 11:36:22 AM »
The ice is flushing too quickly for refreeze to cope so far. Larger fractures to the north imply thicker ice and today they appear to reach the shear lines in the february image above. Air temps at -33C, surface water turbulent and probably mixing with warmer saltier layer(s) below.
Refreeze at the large fracture after the surge and then repeat next month perhaps?
or there is so much ice that it gets compressed at the entrance to the strait and blocks it till summer.
There are some signs of that.

worldview viirsbt15n mar26-28 https://go.nasa.gov/2uywas1
« Last Edit: March 28, 2019, 11:45:52 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1492 on: March 28, 2019, 04:08:31 PM »
'Variables' going back to the 22nd the mslp set up in the north Atlantic was ideal for moving Atl. water north of Iceland/Faroes and on into Barents with the tidal surges. That water would move at it's own pace but the tidal surge would precede it into the Arctic so I suspect it delivers a double blow first softening up the pack by forcing changes on the waters present then delivering more heat as it follows through [days later?]. All this happening about twice a day, hard to capture with one image. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/03/22/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-42.86,82.60,512/loc=-8.568,67.584

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1493 on: March 28, 2019, 09:00:00 PM »
Quote
... there is so much ice that it gets compressed at the entrance to the strait and blocks it till summer.
I've been watching for about a decade and have regularly expected a large floe to 'put a cork' in the Strait (either at the Lincoln Sea end or associated with Hans Island).  I'm pretty sure that during my watch all bridges (arches) formed due to winds slowing the flow of ice (or at least refraining from speeding it southward - both small 'thick' floes and weeks-old 'thin' ice) and it all freezes in place, usually starting within Kane Basin (where I presume the south flowing water spreads out thus slowing down).  Big floes have always shattered upon meeting something harder them themselves (rocks).
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1494 on: March 28, 2019, 10:22:06 PM »
johnm33 I struggle with the 'rotating frame',  it would be easier if the world was flat  ;) I had assumed deeper waters from Lomonosov ridge edge or from the CAA coast or both but I suppose they're not very tidal. The fractures are heading in the direction of CAA so surface current, at least, must be coming from there.

Tor. Oh well, I had my optimistic hat on for a minute. Kane Basin is also deeper making it easier for a fresher surface layer to form.

The clouds have lifted a little, revealing the overall shape on worldview terra modis.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1495 on: March 29, 2019, 12:17:39 AM »
The bigger picture, enhanced and speeded up to show drift. click to run.(hazard warning)
Two older fractures just visible in the relatively stationary ice. Not sure whether the pressure is off or not from this.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 12:22:45 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1496 on: March 29, 2019, 10:17:26 AM »
IMHO, no way this can structurally stabilize unless serious wind comes along to help.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1497 on: March 29, 2019, 12:10:05 PM »
Oren, my thinking is, strong wind from the right direction will stabilize the arch. I take it you think the same?

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1498 on: March 29, 2019, 12:11:01 PM »
Nares Strait will see storm like wind speeds Wednesday (north to south, ~80km/h) which will accelerate flush out of the arch. Temperatures are about to rise from ~ -30˚C to ~ -20˚C in this area.

Also, wind speeds in the north of Greenland will increase (east to west) which will push the ice further west into the warm waters west of Svalbard. This wind will likely amplify the cracking of thick ice in the north of Greenland.

I don't see how conditions could be worse for the thick ice in this area.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1499 on: March 29, 2019, 12:20:19 PM »
Oren, my thinking is, strong wind from the right direction will stabilize the arch. I take it you think the same?
Yes, but I think it's not a high probability event, and I'd say could stabilize rather than will stabilize.