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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1600 on: April 28, 2019, 08:19:35 AM »
Looks like a big floe has blocked the channel. I wonder how long this will last.

Here a closeup from Sentinel.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1601 on: April 28, 2019, 04:44:18 PM »
Still there but beginning to shatter..

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1602 on: April 28, 2019, 06:29:36 PM »
For the record, the blockages as a GIF.

The upstream one has unblocked already.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1603 on: April 28, 2019, 06:59:10 PM »
For the record, the blockages as a GIF.

The upstream one has unblocked already.
Even the huge old ice floes have no structural strength.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1604 on: April 28, 2019, 08:14:46 PM »
Here's an example from upthread of what I mean, by the late A-Team while he was still active in the forum.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg137676.html#msg137676

Edit: apologies for using inappropriate and incorrect language... I guess I am still sad that A-Team left the forum.

Aren't we all.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1605 on: April 29, 2019, 08:01:12 AM »
Multiple new cracks on the west side of the arch.

28.04. 19:32 UTC

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1606 on: April 29, 2019, 08:18:09 AM »
Latest Sentinel pic of the blockage at Petermann (28.04).

Burry all your hopes for a sustained blockage. The floe is already cracking hard.

Another huge one coming through. Perhaps that's the one. But given the fact that the temperatures are about to rise and a week-long southerly wind is forecasted and the bad structural integrity of the floes, that's only a theoretical...

wdmn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1607 on: April 29, 2019, 08:26:18 AM »
This is my first Spring on this forum. How unusual is the current situation with the Nares? Can someone give a quick rundown of what is unique about what is happening this year (if anything)?

Thank you!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1608 on: April 29, 2019, 08:39:17 AM »
I'll try Wdmn. :)

For what i know (and this is little) there are two possible situations: A southern or a northern arch. The obvious difference is, that when the arch is in the south, there is no export of sea ice from Lincoln sea. A northern arch can also mean no export but only if the arch stays stable.

A southern arch is more likely.

The arch normally breaks down in summer, not early spring.

Did some quick research about approx. breakup times, southern "arch" in Kane Basin unless noted otherwise:
2007 - No arches formed.
2008 - June 10th(?)
2009 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around June 30th.
2010 - July 10th
2011 - July 5th.
2012 - June 30th.
2013 - July 10th.
2014 - June 20th.
2015 - July 5th.
2016 - June 30th
2017 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around May 10th.
2018 - June 30th.

So, export-wise we are way ahead this year.

wdmn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1609 on: April 29, 2019, 09:04:28 AM »
Thanks b_lumenkraft, that is helpful, and startling.

I also took at look at this link posted by Neven on the first page of this thread, which others might find useful: https://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_tipping_points_4_broken_bridges_nares

« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 09:37:52 AM by wdmn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1610 on: April 29, 2019, 09:29:23 AM »
Thanks for the link Wdmn (and Neven). Very useful.

Quote
In 2007 the open Nares Strait discharged about 10% of the total ice loss.

My assumption is, we will beat this number this year.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1611 on: April 29, 2019, 10:18:57 AM »
Burry all your hopes for a sustained blockage.

Blockage at Petermann busted. Will provide a GIF later today.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1612 on: April 29, 2019, 05:15:11 PM »
As promised, a little GIF showing the very short blockage unblocking.

be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1613 on: April 29, 2019, 06:33:11 PM »
Nare's watching is increasingly popular .. thanks everyone involved in capturing and sharing the images .. No real halt in 10 months now and even with the best ice in the Arctic battering it's way in , it looks more likely to come out the other end ground up than grounded in the strait .
  While Nare's may export a much smaller volume of ice than Fram , I am sure that the fracturing it helps facilitate ( even far beyond the pole ) , allows much freer movement of ice toward Fram . The on-going trans-polar drift and export of the older ice may well accelerate in the coming days .

 b.c.

ps .. thought I posted this yesterday .. so now I'll add a question .. the 10% ice loss via Nare's in 2007 .. was that of all ice exported or all ice melted and/or exported ?

   
 


2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1614 on: April 29, 2019, 06:43:06 PM »
The original quote in the post states "In 2007 the open Nares Strait discharged about 10% of the total ice loss."

be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1615 on: April 29, 2019, 07:04:24 PM »
The original quote in the post states "In 2007 the open Nares Strait discharged about 10% of the total ice loss."

a quick search on Google reveals a paper at AGU100 reporting 2007 Nares export at @ 87000sq km in area and @ 254 cubic km in volume . It was judged to be @ 10 % of average yearly Fram export .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1616 on: April 29, 2019, 07:11:07 PM »
Another view of the very temporary blockage by Petermann Fjord shows the large floe started breaking up 'right away'.  DMI-Sentinel images dated April 26, 27, 28 and 29. (Slight pause on first and last images).

I find it interesting that the floe appears to have not affected the fast ice opposite Petermann Fjord.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1617 on: April 29, 2019, 07:12:59 PM »
Oh, that's good to know. Thank you B.C.

Stephan

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1618 on: April 29, 2019, 08:57:52 PM »
It appears to me that after the big berg blocked the Nares Strait has divided in two parts the speed of the following ice has increased relevantly.

I wonder whether all the ice exported into Baffin Bay will cause a later melting there in May and June compared to years with a stable arch...

magnamentis

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1619 on: April 29, 2019, 09:28:47 PM »
It appears to me that after the big berg blocked the Nares Strait has divided in two parts the speed of the following ice has increased relevantly.

I wonder whether all the ice exported into Baffin Bay will cause a later melting there in May and June compared to years with a stable arch...

could be kind of "quid pro quo" melting in general is early on that side this year, heat uptake through insolation is significantly higher this year in the souther part and soon up north as well and on the other hand a lot of ice is flowing down "nares" while i'd guess that the few days earlier release of more ice through nares cannot totally compensate the huge increase in energy intake by the ocean as well as in parts of greenland that are ahead of getting snow-free.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1620 on: April 29, 2019, 10:14:02 PM »
I would guess that it is possible that some ice will stay longer in Baffin Bay this year due to the increased export of thick ice that started very early and probably will not stop until the end of the year. But in general Baffin melts out by the end of July, and stays essentially ice-free until the middle of October, I don't expect this overall pattern to change very much.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1621 on: April 29, 2019, 10:21:48 PM »
It appears to me that after the big berg blocked the Nares Strait has divided in two parts the speed of the following ice has increased relevantly.

Well, it's rolling rather fast for some time now. Would be great to have stats on flowing speeds in different depths. Hope our new member Kevin can install some sufficient measurement tools. :P

Quote
I wonder whether all the ice exported into Baffin Bay will cause a later melting there in May and June compared to years with a stable arch...

Can't we consider ice in Baffin lost anyway? I mean, it's supposed to be thick ice sitting there in the north blocking NS for long parts of the summer to add to sea ice volume. Once it's in Baffin it will be pushed south into warm waters eventually.

GAWLab

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1622 on: April 30, 2019, 05:33:37 PM »
Well, it's rolling rather fast for some time now. Would be great to have stats on flowing speeds in different depths. Hope our new member Kevin can install some sufficient measurement tools. :P
Would that I could!  Unfortunately, the lab is here primarily for atmospheric research, we don't have all that much to do with the ice directly, although the effect of all that open water on the local weather conditions is dramatic.  It's looked like a scene from Mordor out on the Lincoln Sea this spring, with all the plumes of sea smoke rising up wherever there are open patches between the pans.  In a normal year when the arches set up properly, the period from February through May is consistently spectacular weather.  This year, on the other hand, it was cloudy or foggy more often than not.  It's only in the past week or so that the temperatures have risen enough to give us some clear skies.

However, there is a team of researchers from Fisheries and Oceans up here right now studying the ice.  They're not tracking the breakup, but rather studying the effects on the ocean's biota (algae, zooplankton and phytoplankton, etc.) of the Arctic-wide transition from multi-year ice to first-year ice.  http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/science/atsea-enmer/missions/2018/higharctic-hautarctique-eng.html  They've been watching the breakup anxiously, since their camp is located in Black Cliffs Bay, not far from the interface with the active region.  We're all hoping they don't suddenly find themselves on a one-way trip down the strait...
- Kevin
Operator, Dr. Neil Trivett Global Atmosphere Watch Observatory
Alert, NU

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1623 on: April 30, 2019, 05:42:56 PM »
Oh man, is this interesting! :)

Of course, you fixing up some gear for us was only a joke. Not really expecting that from you.

I saw those plumes in the satellite pictures. Amazing to have an eye witness posting here. Just keep posting Kevin.

Good luck to those fishermen scientists and thanks for the link.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1624 on: April 30, 2019, 08:21:28 PM »
'Variables' going back to the 22nd the mslp set up in the north Atlantic was ideal for moving Atl. water north of Iceland/Faroes and on into Barents with the tidal surges. That water would move at it's own pace but the tidal surge would precede it into the Arctic so I suspect it delivers a double blow first softening up the pack by forcing changes on the waters present then delivering more heat as it follows through [days later?]. All this happening about twice a day, hard to capture with one image. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/03/22/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-42.86,82.60,512/loc=-8.568,67.584
You could be right. Although we couldn't see it when the arch broke in march both surface currents can be seen this week. I still think the main offender is deep water coming from the north along the Lomonosov ridge but it could also be the shallower current around the north of greenland. - or a combination of all three-
Worldview, apr29, currents into nares
Worldview terra modis apr24-29

edit: hello GAWLab. I'm wondering if any sound recordings of ice travelling down the Nares are available. Is there any difference with more open water? I imagine the drone footage is interesting too ;)
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 08:44:18 PM by uniquorn »

Stephan

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1625 on: April 30, 2019, 09:03:06 PM »
Thanks for the animation.
I think the very big chunk of ice in the centre of movement can't make it through Nares Strait. It is way too fat. I wonder whether it will be stable enough to withstand waves, wind and current or whether it will be divided into several parts that finally make their journey into Baffin Bay.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1626 on: April 30, 2019, 09:17:22 PM »
Annotated image for reference.

Re 'Very Big Chunk':  I predict it will break up upon coming in contact with shorelines/fast ice, as has all its predecessors.  Lasting blockages, in my several years of watching Nares Strait, occur when winds slow the southward motion of floes and fast ice freezes from shore to shore, locking in place existing floes.
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1627 on: April 30, 2019, 09:21:58 PM »
b_l likes to bet on that kind of event ;)

Fantastic, the dfo expedition have a tent lab with an ice hole in the floor.
© Pierre Coupel, Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

HapHazard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1628 on: April 30, 2019, 10:32:05 PM »

Fantastic, the dfo expedition have a tent lab with an ice hole in the floor.

We Canadians call that "ice fishing". Obviously, some have fancier equipment than others. I'm quite curious what their beer stash (should be kept outside the door in a cooler) contains...  ;D

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1629 on: April 30, 2019, 11:56:21 PM »
Fancy equipment  :)
Probably more detail on sentinel but here is worldview terra modis local contrast today of 'very big chunk'. It has a few faults. Fast ice at the entrance is starting to look a bit challenged. edit: I see it already lifted off and probably won't refreeze properly now.
Also ascat freezing season to present. The arches haven't survived for long.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2019, 12:05:51 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1630 on: May 01, 2019, 12:59:38 AM »
Quote
... I'm wondering if any sound recordings of ice travelling down the Nares are available. Is there any difference with more open water? ...

A retired NAVY sonar instructor gives a nice example of what the Nares (and most of the arctic) probably sounds like ...



Imagine trying to pick up another sub with that background - for 3 months.

Or learn about the effect of thermal lenses on sonar ...
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24638/retired-submariner-turned-gamer-gives-amazing-video-explainers-on-sub-tactics-and-tech
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1631 on: May 01, 2019, 01:29:22 PM »
Annotated image for reference.

Re 'Very Big Chunk':  I predict it will break up upon coming in contact with shorelines/fast ice

You already scared the smaller one Tor. It broke down before even entering the strait.

Having an eye on Very Big Chunk.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1632 on: May 01, 2019, 01:36:47 PM »
Here a close up of Very Big Chunk in Longwave IR Band. I bet Tor is right. This thing might just crack away.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1633 on: May 01, 2019, 01:40:10 PM »
b_l likes to bet on that kind of event ;)

I kid you not, i thought about doing a poll on that.  ;D

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1634 on: May 01, 2019, 04:00:48 PM »
Big Chunk is really big, very anomalous as a stand-alone single floe in that location. If any chunk has a chance of plugging the Strait it is this one. But I am still betting heavily against it.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1635 on: May 01, 2019, 04:13:43 PM »

magnamentis

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1636 on: May 01, 2019, 07:54:01 PM »
Big Chunk is really big, very anomalous as a stand-alone single floe in that location. If any chunk has a chance of plugging the Strait it is this one. But I am still betting heavily against it.

ice loss becoming more efficient, learning by doing, why deal with tiny bits, if already we have to die, then let's do it right said st. peter who is responsible for weather and climate LOL

[sarc]

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1637 on: May 01, 2019, 09:38:00 PM »
I saw those plumes in the satellite pictures. Amazing to have an eye witness posting here. Just keep posting Kevin.

Good luck to those fishermen scientists and thanks for the link.
My pleasure!  It's a fascinating place to work, it really feels like another planet sometimes.

edit: hello GAWLab. I'm wondering if any sound recordings of ice travelling down the Nares are available. Is there any difference with more open water? I imagine the drone footage is interesting too ;)
We don't have any such recordings at the lab, but I bet my colleagues in Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) do.  They specialize in underwater acoustics.

Unfortunately because Alert is a signals intelligence station, stray radio emissions are strictly limited.  That means no drones without going through a lot of paperwork to justify their use.

We Canadians call that "ice fishing". Obviously, some have fancier equipment than others. I'm quite curious what their beer stash (should be kept outside the door in a cooler) contains...  ;D
Alert has a two-drink limit, and the only place you can get alcohol is in the bar on station.  So sadly there's no beer out at the camp...
- Kevin
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1638 on: May 02, 2019, 08:50:59 AM »
'Variables' going back to the 22nd the mslp set up in the north Atlantic was ideal for moving Atl. water north of Iceland/Faroes and on into Barents with the tidal surges. That water would move at it's own pace but the tidal surge would precede it into the Arctic so I suspect it delivers a double blow first softening up the pack by forcing changes on the waters present then delivering more heat as it follows through [days later?]. All this happening about twice a day, hard to capture with one image. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/03/22/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-42.86,82.60,512/loc=-8.568,67.584
You could be right. Although we couldn't see it when the arch broke in march both surface currents can be seen this week. I still think the main offender is deep water coming from the north along the Lomonosov ridge but it could also be the shallower current around the north of greenland.

And again we changed expanding direction. New cracks on the east.

02.05. 04:44h UTC

(North is left in this pic. Greenland and Ellesmere Island on the right)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1639 on: May 02, 2019, 08:18:19 PM »
Not only is there the crack B_ identifies, there is about 9 km (at least in one place) of movement in the once stable 'triangle' on the NNW coast of Greenland.  Yellow "x"es approximately mark several identifiable locations.  A couple of ovals show pieces associated with the "Very Big Chunk" (VBC) spreading apart (whether part of the original VBC, I have no opinion) even as most of this Lincoln Sea ice moves toward Ellesmere Island (left edge).  [Images from DMI - May 1 and May 2]

Edit:  Yes, some of the 'triangle' (not viewed here) remains. not hardly any!
« Last Edit: May 03, 2019, 01:36:52 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1640 on: May 02, 2019, 08:38:19 PM »
Warmer weather lubricating the edges perhaps. The eastern breakaway was part of vbc. That section always looked the most vulnerable.
edit: added wider view from worldview terra modis apr30-may2
« Last Edit: May 02, 2019, 08:54:31 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1641 on: May 02, 2019, 09:58:21 PM »
It would be interesting to know the timings of when warmer or more turbulent waters arrive below that 'fishing hole'.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1642 on: May 04, 2019, 01:15:33 PM »
Higher tides in coming days.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1643 on: May 05, 2019, 12:58:36 AM »
The NSIDC sea ice age distribution shows clearly why an open Nares 3 months earlier than usual is so important. The Lincoln Sea has some of the oldest ice in the Arctic, a few pixels away from being flushed. The constant ice loss can also have a destabilizing effect on the ice north of Greenland between Nares and Fram, possibly even leading to greater Fram export from that area.
PIOMAS volume (courtesy of Wipneus) shows a somewhat different localization but essentially the same issue.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1644 on: May 05, 2019, 05:14:00 AM »
A nice big chunk has just been flushed over 100km through nares in the last 4 days.

The giant is about to test its strength at the mouth, but if recent history is any indication...it will shatter and be sent into the warming baffin very very fast.
big time oops

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1645 on: May 05, 2019, 10:18:31 AM »
VBC has split in half.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1646 on: May 05, 2019, 12:46:40 PM »
For newcomers, lurkers etc. Could someone confirm my distant recillection that Nares is the deepest channel in, and has most turbulent waters of, west of Greenland?
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1647 on: May 05, 2019, 02:17:09 PM »
Possibly the most turbulent while the others have fast ice.

Pmt111500

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1648 on: May 05, 2019, 03:09:57 PM »
Thaks uniquorn for the bathymetric, over 200 m deep then, while the others are wider they're shallower.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1649 on: May 05, 2019, 04:46:04 PM »
VBC has split in half.

I think the nature of this split speaks volumes as to the integrity of the VBC. The VBC did not run into anything in order to split. I believe the split suggests that the leading half has torn away from the trailing half simply because it is entering the faster waters that flow into and through the Nares while the trailing half is still meandering south in slower currents.

There appears to be another major split close to the leading edge of the 1st not so VBC that is partially obscured by clouds. Same process here I suspect. It will be interesting if this fracturing pattern persists.

(edit: my eyes could be deceiving me on that 2nd split but it appears to run parallel to the larger split that cleaved the VBC in half.)
« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 04:53:08 PM by Shared Humanity »