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GAWLab

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2200 on: November 17, 2019, 06:10:22 PM »
I'm not surprised.  It was a decent little storm we had yesterday, the first real wind in some weeks.  It warmed up considerably too, for the last 24 hours our temperature probe at the lab was reading -12.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2201 on: November 18, 2019, 04:57:10 PM »
The perennial question: when will the Nares Strait ice bridge break up?

Here’s a teaser: looks like the Navy HYCOM ice thickness maps show mass movement there next week.  Run 3/28/2013, valid 3/29 to 4/5.

See if this one plays out!

BTW, thanks for opening this thread, Sigmetnow!
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2202 on: November 18, 2019, 05:00:18 PM »
I'm not surprised.  It was a decent little storm we had yesterday, the first real wind in some weeks.  It warmed up considerably too, for the last 24 hours our temperature probe at the lab was reading -12.

Last week had some harsh winds down there in the strait, really fascinating that you guys had no wind up there. But then the NS is 500 km long, who would expect the same weather all around, eh? ;)
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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2203 on: November 18, 2019, 05:50:55 PM »
Sorry for not posting movies yesterday, but DMI wouldn't update.

Also, the 12th and 13th are missing - which makes my brain hurt.

And it also makes for very bad movies. So sorry folks.  :-\

Click to Meh...


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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2204 on: November 24, 2019, 09:10:20 PM »
Have your click to play movies for November 17th to 24th, ladies and gentlemen.
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2205 on: November 29, 2019, 01:21:18 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2206 on: November 29, 2019, 03:52:22 PM »
Nice to see the Lincoln Sea freezing up and resisting the Nares.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2207 on: November 29, 2019, 04:11:14 PM »


Nice to see the Lincoln Sea freezing up and resisting the Nares.

Well, we had this before this season:

Lincoln becoming more 'static' now. Pieces are breaking out of an arch, getting sucked into the strait. As if it was winter...

Let's hope this time for real.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2208 on: December 01, 2019, 05:50:15 PM »
24st of November to 01st of December.

Kennedy had two nice pictures on 26th so this one has one frame more.

Click GIF to play GIF
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2209 on: December 01, 2019, 07:13:20 PM »
The complete lift-off of ice off of NNW Greenland, and the 'look' of the ice in the NE part of the Lincoln Sea (where MYI used to grow) makes this part of the Arctic look doomed: no strength, no resistance to tides, currents and winds.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2210 on: December 01, 2019, 07:53:07 PM »
Yeah, winter doesn't really show so far.  :-\
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2211 on: December 02, 2019, 01:59:02 PM »
Agreed, the arch struggling to form with so much mobility and change in direction further north.
https://go.nasa.gov/2ODuA2Z nares/lincoln  oct27-dec2 ctr

GAWLab

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2212 on: December 03, 2019, 08:37:26 PM »
Yeah, winter doesn't really show so far.  :-\
We're definitely noticing it here on station.  We're still getting fog rolling in off the ocean occasionally, which doesn't normally happen by December...
- Kevin
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2213 on: December 03, 2019, 09:11:33 PM »
Thanks, Kevin for the info. Always good to hear from you. :)
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2214 on: December 07, 2019, 12:41:13 PM »
Well, well, well. Look who's sneaking out of the picture once again.  8)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2215 on: December 08, 2019, 07:07:16 PM »
Your weekly Sunday movies ladies and gentlemen.

Sorry for the screwed up 7th.  :(

Click 'em!
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2216 on: December 14, 2019, 08:21:36 PM »
Fun-fact!  :D

So, there is this Sci-Fi show The Expanse i'm currently watching. In the intro, there is a NASA-Worldview GIF showing the Nares and a Petermann calving event.

And as a bonus, the main character is played by a guy who's called Steven Strait.

Not kidding.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2217 on: December 15, 2019, 08:22:39 PM »
Can't post attachments as it seems. ^.^

Will try to upload the weekly movies later.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2218 on: December 16, 2019, 07:18:01 PM »
Good news everyone.

ITP-116 got a new framing. :)

Nares, we are coming!
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2219 on: December 16, 2019, 07:36:57 PM »
Of course, B_, all those arrows are pointing towards Fram export.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2220 on: December 16, 2019, 08:16:33 PM »
Hey, don't you dare to mind the arrows, Tor.  ;) ;D
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2221 on: December 16, 2019, 08:22:36 PM »
Ok, let's try this again.

Weekly DMI-crop update.

08.12 to 15.12. Click to play.

Slow winds for this week forecasted. Perhaps that does something.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2222 on: December 16, 2019, 08:48:15 PM »
All that young (1-week old?) ice NNE of Greenland that grew in the recently-opened leads just got crushed into piles of ice.  That's one way to create multi-meter thick ice in one season!
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2223 on: December 16, 2019, 09:00:19 PM »
Good point!
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GAWLab

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2224 on: December 18, 2019, 03:32:23 PM »
Looks like there's still no sign of things solidifying yet, that's a lot of export going on.

A question for those with more experience than me: in previous years, when has the arch above the mouth of strait usually formed?  This is my fifth winter here in Alert, but it's only the second one where I've been actively watching these satellite images...

Also, I find it fascinating to see the ice movement just offshore from where I am.  When you stand at the window here on station and look out at the ocean, it looks like a solid, immobile sheet of ice.  But if I were to hop on a snowmobile and ride a few hundred metres out onto it (I wouldn't, because that would be very stupid in the dark season), you would suddenly reach open water with large pans drifting lazily past.  It's very deceptive...
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2225 on: December 18, 2019, 04:10:27 PM »
Frequently, no long-lasting bridge [or arch] (within the Lincoln Sea) stops the flow of ice into Nares Strait.  Most years, a bridge forms in Kane Basin (or further up the strait) that stops upstream ice movement, so then the Lincoln Sea surface 'freezes solid' soon after.

Oren posted some Lincoln Sea bridge info earlier this year (link)

A couple posts earlier, Niall Dollard listed within-the-strait arch formation (bridge formation) dates.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2226 on: December 18, 2019, 04:55:38 PM »
(I wouldn't, because that would be very stupid in the dark season)

I'm really glad you don't do that, Kevin.  ;D ;)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2227 on: December 19, 2019, 04:55:35 PM »
Slow winds for this week forecasted. Perhaps that does something.

Lower Kane just became static.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2228 on: December 22, 2019, 06:48:13 PM »
As mentioned above, the Nares is locked at Kane Basin since 16th. The blockage is slowly propagating upstream. Considering the forecasted wind conditions (calm, sometimes northwards) it will not take too long for a complete freeze over.

In Lincoln, on the other hand, a massive crack has developed.

All GIFs click to play.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2229 on: December 22, 2019, 07:26:09 PM »
Nice spotting blumenkraft. This seems likes thr real thing, although the date is a bit early.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2230 on: December 22, 2019, 07:42:19 PM »
Thanks, Oren. :)

I agree.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2231 on: December 23, 2019, 01:04:19 AM »
That's great news. If it does hold.

It is earlier than usual but then we did have a very early blockage in November 2012 after that record low ice year.

Hopefully now it will continue to hold and cut-off that escape route for what little remains of the multiyear ice.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2232 on: December 26, 2019, 03:23:38 PM »
A crack has formed about 80km northeast of the arch edge in the Kane Basin.

It is only visible on the Sentinel 1B image on Christmas Day (The 1A image on the same date does not show it.)

Winds in the Basin are slight and if anything blowing from a SW direction at the north of the Top of the Kane Basin and a little stronger in the Kennedy Channel.

Not sure if the crack is due to ice pulling NE up the Kennedy or if the ice has pulled a little to the SW.  I think I would prefer the former and hope the arch holds.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2233 on: December 26, 2019, 04:20:12 PM »
Niall, regarding floe movement, there wasn't way made towards the south but the tidal movement was still apparent above Kane the whole week. Another variable to consider IMHO.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2234 on: December 27, 2019, 07:17:45 AM »
If you look at daily snapshots these days, you could get the impression the NS is static.

But winds and tides are still doing their thing. Yet... Could freeze any moment IMHO.

For Wednesday strong southwards winds are forecasted. Let's see what happens then.

Here is from RAMMB-SLIDER Geo-Color&M13
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2235 on: December 27, 2019, 07:26:24 AM »
Suppose the channel is open in winter and there is a current transporting huge amounts of water south, that would mean Lincoln would lose a lot of heat via the Nares. The water has a lot of time during it's 500km travel to the Baffin Bay to cool down, give up heat into the atmosphere. But when the Nares is frozen, this heat stays with the water.

So that would mean, a frozen Nares is actually bad for the ice in the Baffin Bay in spring.

Am i right with this assumptions?
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2236 on: December 29, 2019, 01:01:33 AM »
This paper might be of interest BL. But it does get quite technical.

https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/downloads/zw12z965n

Inevitably the transport of heat and water with different salinity is quite complex through the Nares but the modelling notes big differences dependent whether the arch forms or not.

"  The alteration in current structure produces a systematic change in the spatial distribution of salt and heat within the model domain. Low-salinity water is transported midstrait in the ocean-only simulation,and along the eastern boundary in the ocean-ice simulation. The transport of intermediate salinity water is offset to the west in the ice-ocean simulation relative to the ocean-only simulation. Within the oceanonly simulation, intermediate salinity water is also carried northward along the eastern side of the strait.
In both simulations, high-salinity water (S > 34.8 ) is constrained to recirculations that are located north and south of a sill in Kane Basin; these recirculations are intensified in the ocean-only simulation"

They also say along the eastern side of the strait, temperatures above 100 m tend to be 0.5-1.0  C warmer in the ocean-only simulation than  in the ocean-ice simulation. 
« Last Edit: December 29, 2019, 01:08:38 AM by Niall Dollard »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2237 on: December 29, 2019, 07:43:38 AM »
Amazing, Niall! Thanks so much!
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2238 on: December 29, 2019, 07:00:35 PM »
A storm went over Lincoln and basically popped it open.

Kennedy still shows tidal action.

Upper Kane cracking once in a while but the southern arch is still holding the door.

You will not believe what happens next!
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2239 on: December 29, 2019, 09:47:09 PM »
Good news everyone!

Looking at the RAMMB-SLIDER there is a storm blowing westwards alongside the northern Greenland coast. ITP116 should get a nice push into the 'right direction' today. :)
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2240 on: December 30, 2019, 02:31:09 AM »
And temperatures are forecast to plunge over the next 24 hours over the whole of the Nares strait. Should be well below -30 C and by New Year's Eve touching -40 C on the Ellesmere side.

This should really toughen up the arch in the Kane Basin.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2241 on: December 30, 2019, 07:12:54 AM »
Agreed, Niall.

Also, the cold temperatures combined with the many cracks in the Lincoln Sea ice ATM might cause a lot of heat to be dumped into the atmosphere. Could be good for ice thickness.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2242 on: January 01, 2020, 03:04:17 PM »
It looks very "arch" like at present. There has been movement to the north and south of the arch. Arch is about 80km in width (north to south).

My New Year's wish : I hope it holds til the summer !

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2243 on: January 02, 2020, 09:53:19 AM »
1st Jan 2020 image in the Kane Basin shows that the more usual southerly drift has returned and ice from the Kennedy channel has joined back up with the arch. Still looking strong.

Meanwhile I see temperatures at Alert have dipped below -40 C. I dont recall that happening last winter.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2244 on: January 02, 2020, 11:41:29 AM »
A new year and an updated list of the arch start date. (Arches that is within the Strait and not temporary hold ups in the Lincoln Sea):

2020 - December 17 (2019)
2019 - No arch
2018 - March 1st
2017 - No arch (in the strait proper)
2016 - December 6th (2015)
2015 - February 13th
2014 - January 5th (northern arch started - southern just after)
2013 - November 8th (2012)
2012 - December 6th (2011)
2011 - January 29th
2010 - No arch
2009 - Visible sat image shows arch at extreme north end of channel on March 10. Start date was sometime before this.
2008 - April 1st
2007 - No arch

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2245 on: January 02, 2020, 11:54:10 AM »
Cool, Niall! Thanks a lot. :)
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2246 on: January 02, 2020, 06:50:05 PM »
Meanwhile I see temperatures at Alert have dipped below -40 C. I dont recall that happening last winter.
It is indeed bloody cold up here right now.  Our 24 hour minimum at the lab is currently -44.5, while the latest five minute average is -42.8.  The trend is still downwards, so it's quite possible it will get even colder yet.  This is officially the coldest weather I've ever experienced!  :)
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2247 on: January 02, 2020, 07:11:35 PM »
Not even minus 45? Lame! ;)

Stay warm, Kevin. :)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2248 on: January 03, 2020, 01:57:54 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/2ts8E2y  jan1-3.
Just a little chip aff the corner today. 7 days till the full moon. I lost the link to tidal height.

added https://www.gmrt.org/GMRTMapTool/np/ bathymetry with heavy contrast.
light grey ~180m, dark ~500m
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 02:50:44 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2249 on: January 03, 2020, 02:34:00 PM »
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