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grixm

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2300 on: May 24, 2020, 05:54:55 PM »
Looks like a piece broke off today.


uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2301 on: May 24, 2020, 06:01:39 PM »
Indeed and the 2 polynya further north have joined up.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2302 on: May 24, 2020, 07:52:12 PM »
This loss of important structural support could result in a very early breakup of the arch.

Stephan

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2303 on: May 24, 2020, 08:58:36 PM »
Last year there was a permanent flow of sea ice through the Nares Strait into Baffin. This year up to now the arch is still intact and the sea SW of it is already completely ice-free. When I turn to gerontocrat's postings in the area/extent thread I remember that Baffin Sea has much less ice than usual. Would a permanently open Nares Strait lead to higher Baffin Sea Ice or is the input of ice through the narrow Nares Strait negligible?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2304 on: May 25, 2020, 12:43:40 AM »
Sorry, don't know, but it is possible to look up daily extent. It must make a difference.
Yesterday's fracture. Polar view may23-24
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 01:11:38 AM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2305 on: May 25, 2020, 01:33:44 AM »
Last year there was a permanent flow of sea ice through the Nares Strait into Baffin. This year up to now the arch is still intact and the sea SW of it is already completely ice-free. When I turn to gerontocrat's postings in the area/extent thread I remember that Baffin Sea has much less ice than usual. Would a permanently open Nares Strait lead to higher Baffin Sea Ice or is the input of ice through the narrow Nares Strait negligible?

I found a great analysis study on Nares Strait below on nature.com. It is open access thankfully and confirms a lot of all the good analysis we have already produced in this thread. The author mentions that you can add +/- 2 days to the dates of formation, as definitions can vary. (On a personal note I'm glad to say it confirms my own record on southern arch formation in this thread and also Oren's record on arch breakdown).

I have attached two images from the article on arch formation and trends going back 4 decades. I think anyone who reads this thread will find it a "must" read !   (I have left the screen shots in large size in order to make it legible in this thread).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-56780-6

Back to your question Stephan. Inflow into Baffin Bay can be grouped into three main sources:

1) Inflow through Nares Strait (when it is open)
2) Inflow from the CAA. From the Lancaster and Jones Sound
3) New ice production in the North Water Polynya

The nature.com study says that there was a record volume went through the Nares Strait in 2007 when no arch formed (254 km3).

So clearly an open Nares will export a lot of ice into Baffin Bay.

In 2009 there was only a northern ice arch and it resulted in a virtually ice-free Baffin Bay in July, which led to unprecedented summertime sea surface temperatures largely as a result of decreased albedo and 24-hour solar insolation.

When the arches form, the NOW polynya is a big source of new sea ice production for Baffin Bay inwinter and spring. But this will be thin ice. This study below estimates that this polynya is repsonsible for around 80% of sea ice passing through the northern gate of Baffin Bay. There is a lot of data in this study but inflow and outflow into Baffin is variable and complex.

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/1025/2019/tc-13-1025-2019.pdf

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2306 on: May 25, 2020, 01:30:24 PM »
In Kane Basin, the Humbold Glacier calved a little.

Note the grounded icebergs in the middle of the GIF. They are 2-4km away from the calving, but they are still moved.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2307 on: May 26, 2020, 12:37:57 PM »
DMI says that in the last few days it's been warm enough for a little bit of melt and even a bit of run-off (i.e. liquid H2O) into the Nares Strait
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2308 on: May 26, 2020, 12:58:55 PM »
yesterdays terra modis, https://go.nasa.gov/2A5M8jw
heavy contrast to show possible weak points beyond which a new arch might stabilise.
The northern polynya is consolidating

edit: that sliver broke off between the aqua and terra modis orbits.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 05:34:02 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2309 on: May 26, 2020, 01:16:17 PM »
I have attached two images from the article on arch formation and trends going back 4 decades. I think anyone who reads this thread will find it a "must" read !   (I have left the screen shots in large size in order to make it legible in this thread).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-56780-6

Excellent article. I'd assumed the NOW(polynya) was due to warmer saline water being forced up from depth by the shallow sill and turbulence. Latent heat of fusion is a contribution I hadn't considered.

Here are another 2 images from the document for easy reference. While we can look at worldview back to 2000, the 1980-1999 images are a real time saver.
Quote
Data availability

Satellite Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) data is available on-line at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS)(https://www.bou.class.noaa.gov/saa/products/welcome). Archival ice charts are available on-line at the Government of Canada ice archive (https://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Archive/page1.html?lang = en).
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 01:26:01 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2310 on: May 26, 2020, 11:41:31 PM »
constant drips...

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2311 on: May 27, 2020, 08:03:06 PM »
Sentinel caught it nicely!
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2312 on: May 29, 2020, 01:47:52 PM »
Getting warm(ish) up there?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2313 on: May 31, 2020, 02:36:52 PM »
There are cracks developing in the Kane Basin.

Maybe there will be some action soon.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2314 on: May 31, 2020, 07:04:42 PM »
I cannot imagine the arch being able to hold much longer in its current unsupported configuration. The first real stress should break it. I give it 1-2 weeks. If it lasts beyond mid-June i'd be very surprised.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2315 on: June 02, 2020, 10:58:33 AM »
The big polynya is expanding to the north.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2316 on: June 02, 2020, 12:09:18 PM »
Checking out a possible low concentration area near alert. Probably nothing.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2317 on: June 04, 2020, 09:57:29 PM »
I was wondering where that floe in the arch was coming from. Good we have the Slider. :)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2318 on: June 04, 2020, 10:09:12 PM »
Checking out a possible low concentration area near alert. Probably nothing.

The ice sure looks weird there.

Sadly Kevin is no more there. We have to find someone else to walk down there and have a look. ;)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2319 on: June 04, 2020, 10:35:23 PM »
The big polynya is expanding to the north.

BL I always enjoy your image posting. Especially around the Nares.

Could I ask a favour ? At this time of year I watch out for the emergence of the blue ice. Already I can see some blue ice just south of Eureka in the Eureka Sound. When viewed using true colour.

The June 2nd image above of Kane Basin also looks very blue but I imagine you have added a layer to the true color image. At other times of the year this doesnt matter at all but at this time of the year I would find it helpful if you could say whether or not a layer has been added.

Hopefully the Kane Basin can remain "whitish" for a bit longer !

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2320 on: June 04, 2020, 10:42:43 PM »
Niall, that was with "return [B8A*1,B03*1,B02*1]" rendering, gain .8, and gamma 1.4 IIRC.

Will add it in the future. :)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2321 on: June 06, 2020, 04:06:19 PM »
Polynya south of Franklin Island.

(return [B8A*1,B03*1,B02*1], Gain & Gamma = 1)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

gerontocrat

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2322 on: June 06, 2020, 06:14:39 PM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2323 on: June 06, 2020, 08:31:28 PM »
The wind changed. I think that is slush that collected in the arch. There is a little more erosion since your S1(link didn't work for me) on the eastern side though, close to land.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 08:42:20 PM by uniquorn »

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2324 on: June 07, 2020, 07:47:23 PM »
Chip by chip.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2325 on: June 07, 2020, 10:05:46 PM »
good prediction but it hasn't happened yet, https://go.nasa.gov/3h58liA

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2326 on: June 08, 2020, 05:08:50 PM »
Crack!  ;D
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2327 on: June 11, 2020, 07:20:17 PM »
Tiny pieces

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2328 on: June 11, 2020, 09:46:22 PM »
The structure is not very stable, but my mid-June call is fast approaching...

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2329 on: June 13, 2020, 02:56:27 PM »
Surface melting all along the channel now.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2330 on: June 14, 2020, 07:26:07 PM »
More open water spotted.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2331 on: June 15, 2020, 03:12:21 AM »
The arch is still holding, though peeling off another piece every couple of days. The bluing of the ice hints at strong incoming energy. Keep your eyes open on this one.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2332 on: June 16, 2020, 06:05:40 AM »
It is looking very thin and weak behind the arch and will probably completely collapse and clear out when it does go

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2333 on: June 16, 2020, 12:33:31 PM »
Kane Basin melt, 10th to 15th via Sentinel 2 (return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]).
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2334 on: June 16, 2020, 12:50:00 PM »
Zoomed out, you can see Petermann fjord being even bluer.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2335 on: June 17, 2020, 03:28:46 PM »
Howdy folks,

Just to let you know, I'm back in the operator's chair here in Alert for another few months (likely until mid-October).  This will be my final tour in Alert, sadly, but I'll try to prod the next operator into logging in occasionally!

I saw plenty of ponding going on out the window of the plane on my flight up yesterday (we generally fly straight up the Nares), things are starting to melt quickly!
- Kevin
Operator, Dr. Neil Trivett Global Atmosphere Watch Observatory
Alert, NU

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2336 on: June 17, 2020, 03:33:33 PM »
we generally fly straight up the Nares

Do i envy you so very much, Kevin!  ;D

Welcome back. Have a great stay.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2337 on: June 17, 2020, 03:46:51 PM »
operator's chair here in Alert

For everyone out of the loop on that one, there is an Airbase up there.

Sorry for showing your livingroom, Kevin. ;)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2338 on: June 17, 2020, 03:49:52 PM »
Welcome back Kevin, nice to hear from you.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2339 on: June 17, 2020, 03:51:19 PM »
operator's chair here in Alert

For everyone out of the loop on that one, there is an Airbase up there.

Sorry for showing your livingroom, Kevin. ;)
That's right on the chin of Santa Claus... I had no idea... Thanks Blum!
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2340 on: June 17, 2020, 11:39:22 PM »
Sorry for showing your livingroom, Kevin. ;)

Hah, you're welcome to it!  That's a neat view, you can even see how they plowed the roads down to Upper Dumbell Lake...
- Kevin
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2341 on: June 20, 2020, 09:02:28 PM »
I cannot imagine the arch being able to hold much longer in its current unsupported configuration. The first real stress should break it. I give it 1-2 weeks. If it lasts beyond mid-June i'd be very surprised.
Did I already mention this was a failed prediction? Color me surprised (and silly-looking). Nares has this way of surprising, the arch "always" forms later than naively expected, and breaks later than naively expected, even after taking into accounts past surprises.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2342 on: June 20, 2020, 09:21:07 PM »
There doesn't seem to be a (strong) current. Also, the wind is rather calm for an extended time now. Both is rather unusual i would say.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2343 on: June 21, 2020, 01:33:39 AM »
Now events are warming up , and a fresh image this evening on worldview shows open cracks E and W of the entrance and open water in the strait near Lincoln . In 2016 it took quite a while to fully wake up .. but this is 2020 . and I'm looking forward to the next clear day .. b.c.

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2344 on: June 22, 2020, 01:15:30 AM »
It's getting a bit tricky to discern open water and shadows with all that cloud at the moment.

DMI is showing new opening just above Alert in the Lincoln Sea.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2345 on: June 22, 2020, 02:26:41 PM »
It's getting a bit tricky to discern open water and shadows with all that cloud at the moment.

DMI is showing new opening just above Alert in the Lincoln Sea.

Yes, that opening has been visible from the station, it's only a couple hundred metres offshore from us.  We had very high winds (sustained 15-20 m/s) from Thursday through Sunday that did a lot of melting and pushing.  The majority of our snow cover disappeared in that period.
- Kevin
Operator, Dr. Neil Trivett Global Atmosphere Watch Observatory
Alert, NU

SimonF92

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2346 on: June 22, 2020, 03:25:11 PM »
It's getting a bit tricky to discern open water and shadows with all that cloud at the moment.

DMI is showing new opening just above Alert in the Lincoln Sea.

Yes, that opening has been visible from the station, it's only a couple hundred metres offshore from us.  We had very high winds (sustained 15-20 m/s) from Thursday through Sunday that did a lot of melting and pushing.  The majority of our snow cover disappeared in that period.

Really appreciating these updates, thanks a lot!
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2347 on: June 23, 2020, 12:13:36 AM »
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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2348 on: June 23, 2020, 12:30:32 AM »
Looking through the clouds at the Kane arch, I think I can see ice a bit south of the line of the arch from the last visible day. Also hinted in microwave products. Did it break?

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2349 on: June 23, 2020, 06:24:15 PM »
First GIF the normal DMI crop. Something broke off of the arch.

The second GIF is a zoom-in on the sea ice in Kane Basin. Something moved there too!

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