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Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread  (Read 675032 times)

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2350 on: June 24, 2020, 12:00:02 PM »
Large crack in the arch in the Kane.

Also the polynyas in the Kennedy are expanding. Surely not long to go now.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2351 on: June 24, 2020, 12:14:04 PM »
The arch cracked further to the right too. In fact, it's cracking hard all over the place.

Hans Island bottom right.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2352 on: June 25, 2020, 07:12:52 AM »
The arch has been peeling away very slowly in the last two weeks. My hunch is it won't last another week but I have been wrong before, spectacularly and often.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2353 on: June 25, 2020, 09:13:52 AM »
The sea ice around Franklin Ø and in the northern Kane is wiggling around with the tides now. The ice is cracked up to the north. When the arch breaks, the whole channel might be breaking as a whole.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2354 on: June 25, 2020, 10:16:55 PM »
flipping between terra and aqua on worldview today, jun25 click to run


gerontocrat

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2356 on: June 26, 2020, 09:56:18 AM »
A little gif - things are changing in Kane ( http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php )

A lot of snowmelt runoff from Greenland.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2899.msg270526.html#new
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2357 on: June 26, 2020, 10:14:08 AM »
and now this !

It's definitely completely detached. Not floating away though. Tells me, no current at all.

Click to enlarge.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2358 on: June 26, 2020, 10:44:31 AM »
Actually, the wind is blowing from the south and holds them in place.

When you look closely, you can see both triangles ditching briefly.

Click to play.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2359 on: June 26, 2020, 11:20:36 AM »
Yes, the wind is holding the whole house of cards in place.

bluice

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2360 on: June 26, 2020, 01:36:24 PM »
According to windy.com wind will change to 15-20 knot northerly on Saturday? Will that be enough to make it collapse?

On Sunday wind will die again, and next week it will blow from the south.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2361 on: June 26, 2020, 01:56:22 PM »
I think so, yes. If it holds until then that is.

JayW

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blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2363 on: June 26, 2020, 03:40:29 PM »
Haha, beat me to it, Jay. ;)

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2364 on: June 26, 2020, 09:46:01 PM »
Wow, really close now.

gerontocrat

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2365 on: June 26, 2020, 11:23:13 PM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php


Falling to bits all over the place.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2366 on: June 26, 2020, 11:38:46 PM »
2 day gif of Kennedy and Kane Basin.  (needs a click to run)

gerontocrat

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2367 on: June 27, 2020, 10:34:33 AM »
2 day gif of Kennedy and Kane Basin.
I say, Niall, what a super gif. Please, pretty please,  add some more as the days go by. Will make a super demo of what the break-up of the arch means.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

bluice

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2368 on: June 27, 2020, 11:10:52 AM »
A northerly wind is now blowing along the strait as predicted. Interesting to see how long the ice is holding up

I cannot attach a picture because posting by phone but go check windy.com

romett1

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2369 on: June 27, 2020, 12:36:02 PM »
Using the link (JayW post yesterday) a new crack has developed.

be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2370 on: June 27, 2020, 01:08:23 PM »
with the northern ice all having moved last w/e and now the bulk of the southern half on the move , only the actual arch and @ 50km of ice in the north/central had not moved by last night . A lot of ice has moved @ 10 km in the last 3 days so the pressure has certainly built up . As Monday is my forecast for the arch to fail , I'm enjoying the excitement and spectacularly good visibility atm . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 = 2022 ... ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

JayW

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2371 on: June 27, 2020, 09:00:07 PM »
Last image ~2.5 hours old. West side looks like it's going to me.
You know the drill.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2372 on: June 27, 2020, 09:07:50 PM »
I've forgotten who is the judge & what are the specific criteria for announcing "The Arch is Kaput, it is no more!!"

& another image  from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php - but DMI does not time stamp them.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2373 on: June 28, 2020, 12:01:42 AM »
That looks to me like the whole length of the Nares is moving. click to run
rammb is large at 6.7MB. The ice further upstream is barging its way out.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 01:30:20 AM by uniquorn »

be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2374 on: June 28, 2020, 03:41:32 AM »
Indeed Uniquorn , had thought shadows may have been playing tricks but it looks pretty certain the Nares is open for business .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 = 2022 ... ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2375 on: June 28, 2020, 05:12:04 AM »
Kane Basin ice is at least moving by plastic deformation (ah, the province of an old structural geologist, given the right temperature and pressure!).  I don't think that very clear GIF (thanks Uniquorn!) shows a broken arch, yet.  Maybe in a hour????
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2376 on: June 28, 2020, 04:46:11 PM »
Indeed Uniquorn , had thought shadows may have been playing tricks but it looks pretty certain the Nares is open for business .. b.c.

 12 hours later and I'm not so sure ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 = 2022 ... ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2377 on: June 28, 2020, 08:03:53 PM »
kane is moving. I don't think hall moved today. click to run

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2378 on: June 30, 2020, 03:28:44 PM »
If you look at the Sentinel 2 pictures, you see the Nares is a house of cards.

There will be first northerly winds from Tuesday. It should collapse Saturday at the latest, then the wind is quite strong.

Click to play.

bluice

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2379 on: July 01, 2020, 11:12:25 AM »
Yep, 15-30 kt northerlies are expected to start on Thursday, lasting for at least a week. Obviously we need to take into account the usual caveats regarding long-term weather predictions. It's pretty sure the weak Nares ice will be cleared from the strait before next week.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2380 on: July 01, 2020, 11:38:06 AM »
It's pretty sure the weak Nares ice will be cleared from the strait before next week.

But don't forget we are talking about a 500km channel here. It takes a long time for it to clear the 'old' ice. If there was a current, the cleaning out of 'old' ice would be accelerated but we are still talking at least weeks i think.

According to Windy the sea temperature in the Baffin Bay is ice destroying. Once it gets there it's done, but until then i can imagine big floes to survive in the channel. There the water is still cold at the surface.

By the end of the week, things might be in motion, but the strait will be crowded with 'old' ice still.

bluice

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2381 on: July 01, 2020, 11:46:26 AM »
You're right, clearing the channel is unlikely. Maybe "putting the ice in motion" would be better description.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2382 on: July 01, 2020, 11:47:24 AM »
Right!   :)

NevB

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2383 on: July 01, 2020, 03:46:30 PM »
June 29 and June 30 from Worldview

Spectacular change for just one day.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 03:59:28 PM by NevB »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2384 on: July 01, 2020, 11:10:40 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3dU5fLw
Flipping between aqua and terra again today shows significant movement beneath the clouds. The wind is blowing in the right direction.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2385 on: July 02, 2020, 10:56:03 PM »
Almost through the strait
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 11:44:40 PM by uniquorn »

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2386 on: July 03, 2020, 07:47:48 AM »
Sentinel also allows a peek through the clouds. The arch is in scrables.

I would be very surprised if we don't see export tomorrow.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2387 on: July 04, 2020, 12:10:30 AM »
yep, it's in/through the strait. The ice is moving just a bit slower than the clouds.
aqua modis and suomi, jul3 click

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2388 on: July 04, 2020, 06:35:06 PM »
Finally, we have a radar shot! \o/

1st one, the original. You can see the black ocean and the ice surface that's just as wet and black. Note just how black (and wet) the Humbold Glacier is too.

2nd one is a pimped version so you are able to see something at all.

Everything is completely in scrambles.

We have a complete week of (sometimes strong(ish)) northerly winds forecasted.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2389 on: July 04, 2020, 06:40:09 PM »
Kennedy. Huge holes. Much of the ice must have already gone south.

I'll do a GIF when DMI site finally updates.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2390 on: July 04, 2020, 07:14:49 PM »

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2391 on: July 04, 2020, 09:57:42 PM »
Two things happened for two frames in a row: 1) being cloud-free, and 2) the RAMMB-SLIDER actually working (at least for day&night band).

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2392 on: July 05, 2020, 08:34:52 PM »
... and no DMI radar update mind you.  ::)

bluice

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2393 on: July 06, 2020, 08:55:05 AM »
There we go...


uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2394 on: July 06, 2020, 11:48:07 AM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, jun20-jul5

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2395 on: July 06, 2020, 03:10:28 PM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, jun20-jul5
Perfect animation. I call the "official" breakup date as Jul 2nd, for my statistics.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2396 on: July 06, 2020, 07:34:30 PM »
Respectfully disagree, Oren.  :)

It broke up earlier but did not float away because there was no(ish) wind.

Click to play. Sorry for the erratic timestamps.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2397 on: July 06, 2020, 07:39:39 PM »
It broke up earlier but did not float away because there was no(ish) wind.
I agree. This was a weird year for breakup, with the arch slowly peeling and the ice not pressing ahead because of the reverse wind. And it did not help that a cloud decided to sit right over the arch during breakup. But I have to draw the line somewhere, and that is when the whole basin started visibly moving - July 2nd, as the UHH animation clearly shows. In normal years this would have happened on the 25th or 27th.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2398 on: July 06, 2020, 07:44:57 PM »
... and you won in the poll! Congrats! ;)

JayW

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2399 on: July 07, 2020, 12:54:27 AM »
12.5 hour loop
Click to run.
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool