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Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread  (Read 734402 times)

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2400 on: July 10, 2020, 06:59:59 PM »
Big holes are opening up in Lincoln alongside the Greenland coast as sea ice exports via Nares and the hight spins the ice pack. Click it.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2401 on: July 21, 2020, 02:19:52 PM »
Long time no DMI crop updates. But here they are from the day the action started.

Click to play.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2402 on: July 21, 2020, 05:50:00 PM »
Tidal forces create a mesmerizing real-life loading icon... Click needed.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2403 on: July 25, 2020, 11:30:05 PM »
Slowly but surely export from the Lincoln Sea down the Nares has begun. Hopefully winds can reverse the trend.
Click to animate.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2020, 11:35:17 PM by oren »

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2404 on: July 28, 2020, 10:39:50 AM »
BTW, there are some icebergs around in the Lincoln Sea (older ones) and in the Petermann fjord (from the recent mini calving).

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2405 on: August 04, 2020, 10:26:31 PM »
The weather forecast has northerlies down the channel the whole week. I would expect to see some ice exported from Lincoln now.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2406 on: August 07, 2020, 11:00:53 AM »
Here we go. Give it a gentle click, please.

HapHazard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2407 on: August 07, 2020, 07:05:13 PM »
I like how that one big floe looks like it's rolling down a hill.

I guess it's all downhill from here, eh?

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2408 on: August 07, 2020, 07:12:02 PM »
Nice pun, HapHazard.  ;)

Yes, really looks like rolling. When the ice moves south, it's confined to the Ellesmere side due to the Coriolis forces. The flowing speed might be higher in the middle of the strait since movement is caused by the wind, not a current. I think this is causing the rotation.

glennbuck

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2409 on: August 07, 2020, 07:27:01 PM »
Here we go. Give it a gentle click, please.

Wow, Awesome to see! It is Game on for the 2012 records! Roller coaster next few weeks.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2410 on: August 07, 2020, 07:34:38 PM »
Nares export is not significant enough to make much of a dent in a new record. 2019 export started in April, and did not have many episodes of reverse wind as this year, which started export only in early July. It's important for the thick ice in the Lincoln Sea, and impacts volume and long-term stability of the ice pack, but is not a short term game changer.
This year we have the floes that broke off from the northern Greenland coast and are swirling around in the Lincoln Sea. I am quite interested to see their fate, and have a private bet with myself that even the very large one (top left in the animation) will be sucked down the Nares this month, even though it was shifted slightly away from the "Nares envelope" by the previous up-wind event. When the wind joins the natural current and both are heading south, the envelope expands dramatically. This of course depends on how long the wind will blow down the strait before subsiding or even reversing again.

glennbuck

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2411 on: August 07, 2020, 07:46:15 PM »
I just mean in general game changer this year, thinness of the ice, possibility of a GAC.

Area is likely to be 1st, very tight race, the next 3 weeks are going to be very interesting.
 

be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2412 on: August 09, 2020, 02:22:46 AM »
50km pd is fairly speedy .. the garlic press is running a little slower .. though I was surprised to see the big block move 80 km south to the west of Axel Heiberg in the last 4 days ..b.c..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2413 on: August 09, 2020, 09:16:31 AM »
Given how fragile the ice is, I will looking at how much it impacts in opening the Lincoln Sea over the next 30 or so days. Rather than export volume.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2414 on: August 09, 2020, 02:00:28 PM »
My impression this year is that even the large floes are smashed by the time they arrive in the Kane basin.  I don't remember seeing such complete destruction in previous years....and these floes are presumably thick ice?

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2415 on: August 10, 2020, 06:45:21 PM »
Yeah, Latent, these floes are just weak.

These two bigger floes in the Nares just went poof. GIF starts with the smaller one upper left. The bigger one follows suit.

Click to play.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2416 on: August 10, 2020, 07:22:56 PM »
Poof indeed!

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2417 on: August 10, 2020, 09:19:51 PM »
mind the gap
still, 11 hours isn't very long

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2418 on: August 12, 2020, 03:45:54 AM »
A longer-term Worldview animation looking at the "Nares funnel" of the Lincoln Sea since initial breakup. Several interesting points:
* Once export begins, the ice in the funnel can move around more freely, quickly leading to loss of thin "glue" ice and breakup of thick sheets into floes.
* There is clearly a very strong current down the strait, manifesting itself in the funnel as well, with decreasing speed the further one goes from the strait.
* Several bouts of up-strait wind during the middle of the animation.
* The tug between the current and the wind is clearly asymmetrical - the current has strong inertia towards down-strait, and when the wind blows up-strait some floes are braving the storm and keeping their place. Once the wind reverses, movement down the funnel resumes at a much higher speed than any movement up-funnel.
* The prevalent movement of the Lincoln Sea this year from east to west is at odds with the funnel effect, with the biggest floe (top center) still trying to decide whether to go down the funnel or circle around Ellesmere.

Click to animate.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 03:58:22 AM by oren »

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2419 on: August 16, 2020, 12:25:20 PM »
Last DMI crop was 21/07. So here is from 22/07 to yesterday, 15/08. The lack of ice exported from the Lincoln Sea is stunning this year. It 100% correlates with southerlies down the channel. The moment they stopped the floe movement south stopped as well. Kane Basin has warm waters as high as 3˚C according to Windy.com. It's pumped in there by tides from the Baffin Bay. Ice arriving there transforms into a goodbye wave quickly.

Click to play, BIG FILES!

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2420 on: August 18, 2020, 11:40:52 AM »
I think the situation in the Lincoln Sea and Nares is more nuanced than seems at first glance. Export has been limited at the output by the lack of thin ice, with thick floes intermixed with open water. In addition floes break up and melt quickly after entering the strait.
Tracking individual floes reveals a strong current in a broad path across Lincoln, with floes above and below moving randomly with the wind, but floes in the middle moving consistently unless held back by a very strong wind.
Click to animate.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2421 on: August 18, 2020, 11:46:42 AM »
Imho that's the result of tidal pumping what's seen in your GIF, Oren. The export was a function of the northerlies we had for a few days - 1:1 correlation with the wind. I don't see a surface current.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2422 on: August 25, 2020, 11:42:44 AM »
This is one thread where I will really miss blumenkraft's contribution to the forum . Big block is hanging around for his hoped for return .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2423 on: August 25, 2020, 12:37:14 PM »
Indeed, he is sorely missed, here and elsewhere.

Regarding said "big block", now that the wind is blowing up the strait I noticed it is not behaving like its neighbors. It has the tendency to move away from the funnel more easily - could it be that its surface has some tall features that catch the wind in force?

Click to animate.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2424 on: September 10, 2020, 03:43:58 PM »
Despite the strong melt season, Parry Channel has failed to open this season.

SimonF92

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2425 on: September 10, 2020, 04:30:14 PM »
I miss blumenkraft too, they were an active member who made good and valuable contributions to many different threads. As someone who reads far more than they post, they were the kind of person I benefited from.

I really dont know or care what happened, if it was some kind of political thing- but I would like it to be noted that everyone deserves a second chance.
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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2426 on: September 10, 2020, 04:36:32 PM »
I miss blum too.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2427 on: September 10, 2020, 08:49:32 PM »
I also hope blum returns to. IMO the ones attacking him contributed less than he did.

HapHazard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2428 on: September 10, 2020, 10:22:21 PM »
I also hope blum returns to. IMO the ones attacking him contributed less than he did.
Agreed 100%.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2429 on: September 11, 2020, 06:15:36 AM »
Seconded!
Would be great to see him return but let him take his time. He's been to hospital and is recovering from a successful surgery \o/
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

SimonF92

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2430 on: September 11, 2020, 09:04:50 AM »
Seconded!
Would be great to see him return but let him take his time. He's been to hospital and is recovering from a successful surgery \o/

Ah I was not aware of that! I wish him good health and a speedy recovery!
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uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2431 on: October 16, 2020, 11:45:21 PM »
Just a hint of nares export over the last few days
https://go.nasa.gov/2H8Tu9A

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2432 on: November 05, 2020, 11:41:46 AM »
Nares still moving, https://go.nasa.gov/2I6D7e9   nov2-5
amsr2 awi v103, oct26-nov4
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 11:49:02 AM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2433 on: November 11, 2020, 12:36:10 AM »
Not much movement in the Lincoln Sea of late.

Also the fast ice area in the Kane Basin is a bit wider than usual, restricting the ice moving channel to around 30km width (purple arrow). This might make it easier for an arch to form - but of course that said, part of this fast ice could well break off in the near term either.

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2434 on: November 11, 2020, 08:22:22 PM »
Low wind for a couple of days at ~-20C. It could firm up enough to hold for the following two days.  https://go.nasa.gov/3llKlti  nov10-11

added S1B. Probably won't hold.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2020, 12:20:06 AM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2435 on: November 13, 2020, 01:30:20 AM »
held for one day  https://go.nasa.gov/3eVskQ8

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2436 on: November 13, 2020, 11:03:55 AM »
A cloudy rammb from yesterday. I think those two delicately balanced floes were one larger floe a few days ago.  https://col.st/uEKyN  Day/Night band might be better, or M16 Dirty IR Longwave
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 11:22:35 AM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2437 on: November 16, 2020, 12:31:47 PM »
oh well, another plucky floe bites the dust.  https://go.nasa.gov/3pIGrNU

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2438 on: November 27, 2020, 10:44:24 AM »
That floe took a long time to break up, just above centre on these images. Must have been a part of the MYI that spent a long time drifting in and out of Lincoln. The top arch is firming up.
https://go.nasa.gov/39xjE1Z  nov26-27
suomi npp viirs seems to be down the last few days, here using noaa-20 viirs

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2439 on: November 29, 2020, 10:51:10 AM »
Correction.The top arch not really firming up. https://go.nasa.gov/3mkTliL nov26-29
Full moon coming up.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2440 on: November 29, 2020, 12:08:09 PM »
Yes it often continues to shed like that.

There is a large area out in the Lincoln Sea that has been stationary for a few days now but I am not inclined to call that an arch, if there is a still a slow drip drip shedding down the Nares. For me a proper  northern arch is when a blockage occurs around the Robeson Channel at the northern end of the Nares Strait and such a blockage would stop up the Nares completely.

But for whatever the reason, in recent years the blocking typically begins in the Kane Basin, if at all

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2441 on: December 04, 2020, 11:06:08 PM »
Tentative signs of an arch setting, in the Kane Basin. Very early days and would need a few days to be sure.

The images are a combination of Sentinel 1A and 1B (Ideally I'd prefer to use just one!)

Click to run GIF

uniquorn

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2442 on: December 05, 2020, 01:53:32 PM »
Could be. Drift speed may still be a bit high.
https://go.nasa.gov/2IeF60c  dec1-5 (click)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2443 on: December 06, 2020, 03:10:27 PM »
A precarious grip on the eastern side
rammb slider, https://col.st/9gapL  dec4-6

Focus is a bit dodgy on rammb, here is suomi-npp and noaa-20, dec6. Roughly 160km of almost stationary ice.
https://go.nasa.gov/3opH4KL
« Last Edit: December 06, 2020, 05:07:53 PM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2444 on: December 09, 2020, 08:29:55 PM »
It is looking really good now in the Kane Basin and the static ice has extended right up the Kennedy Channel. Near the top of the Strait (Robeson Channel) there was still a little movement coming in from The Lincoln Sea.

The arch started to hold in the Kane Basin circa the 5th and 6th of December. So, if it makes it into next year, here is the list of start dates within the Nares Strait proper (not including temporary freeze ups in the Lincoln Sea).

2021 - December 5th (2020). Provisional
2020 - December 17 (2019)
2019 - No arch
2018 - March 1st
2017 - No arch (in the strait proper)
2016 - December 6th (2015)
2015 - February 13th
2014 - January 5th (northern arch started - southern just after)
2013 - November 8th (2012)
2012 - December 6th (2011)
2011 - January 29th
2010 - No arch
2009 - Visible sat image shows arch at extreme north end of channel on March 10. Start date was sometime before this.
2008 - April 1st
2007 - No arch

Gerntocratis#1

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2445 on: December 09, 2020, 09:32:40 PM »
It is looking really good now in the Kane Basin and the static ice has extended right up the Kennedy Channel. Near the top of the Strait (Robeson Channel) there was still a little movement coming in from The Lincoln Sea.

The arch started to hold in the Kane Basin circa the 5th and 6th of December. So, if it makes it into next year, here is the list of start dates within the Nares Strait proper (not including temporary freeze ups in the Lincoln Sea).

2021 - December 5th (2020). Provisional
2020 - December 17 (2019)
2019 - No arch
2018 - March 1st
2017 - No arch (in the strait proper)
2016 - December 6th (2015)
2015 - February 13th
2014 - January 5th (northern arch started - southern just after)
2013 - November 8th (2012)
2012 - December 6th (2011)
2011 - January 29th
2010 - No arch
2009 - Visible sat image shows arch at extreme north end of channel on March 10. Start date was sometime before this.
2008 - April 1st
2007 - No arch

Might be just a coincidence but all the years where the arch formed in December were followed by strong melting seasons.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2446 on: December 15, 2020, 01:09:57 PM »
So it would seem (at least), that the arch is forming earlier over the last decade?

yaxis is day of year and if before Jan1st it is a negative value
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2447 on: December 15, 2020, 07:15:35 PM »
So it would seem (at least), that the arch is forming earlier over the last decade?

yaxis is day of year and if before Jan1st it is a negative value

How does this chart demonstrate this?

Niall Dollard

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2448 on: December 15, 2020, 08:00:20 PM »
Maybe better to look at longevity of the arch formed. It is very variable.

Here is the chart between the period of 2007 to 2020 with a 5 year moving average of the previous 5 years in red.

(Note I am not including periodic hold ups formed out in the Lincoln Sea ).

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #2449 on: December 17, 2020, 11:24:40 PM »
A little piece broke off