The Nares Strait thread

[Freegrass]

Some sentinel images on June 16th.

One section has managed to wedge itself right into a little cove at Smith Sound.

Great image Niall! That's an even smaller tip than I thought. All that force must by going in a perfect straight line through that ice, otherwise that tip must break off if had just a little angular force on it.

Edit:
Just as I thought, that little bit of southern wind moved the ice a little north. Now we wait until tomorrow to see what happens when the current slams it back into the rocks. That bridge must be so fragile that I can't believe it will hold. But we'll see...

[gerontocrat]

Here is a little gif of Kane Basin. It looks like in the last day or two a bit more movement down the Strait.

Looking through the clouds over the Lincoln sea it looks like much is reduced to rubble.

click gif to start, runs 6 times.
Click Lincoln image to enlarge

[oren]

Indeed, it appears the miraculous floe that managed to stick its finger in the dam is now loose, and the way out of Kane should be clear.

[gerontocrat]

Images from https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php & kennedy

Looks like flow from the Lincoln sea towards & into the Nares Strait has commenced,
BUT
In Kennedy similar movement downstream except for NE of the glacier where there is upstream movement of some floes and downstream movement of floes even further up.

click gifs to start, run 6 times

[oren]

The weird/lucky arch held on for 5 days, but Kane is now flowing freely.

[Freegrass]

The weird/lucky arch held on for 5 days, but Kane is now flowing freely.

All it needed was a little push from a little southern wind...

[HapHazard]

Looks like it's been flowing decently for the last week.

[gerontocrat]

Sentnel 1 images from DMI at last.

I stuck images from Lincoln & Kennedy together (badly).

Am I looking at a Lincoln Sea solidly frozen with a frozen barrier towards the top of Kennedy?

click image to enlarge

[OffTheGrid]

No old boy, I'm afraid you are not.
That is unravelling fast flowing rounded foes surrounded by a sea of slush.
Most of the slush is in fact decompression cooled fresh spring water from the deep briney North of Greenland.
Where it has flowed to via the subterranean River systems occupying the expanding fault rifts that we now know the Glacial canyons of Greenland and Antarctica to be.

Sentnel 1 images from DMI at last.

I stuck images from Lincoln & Kennedy together (badly).

Am I looking at a Lincoln Sea solidly frozen with a frozen barrier towards the top of Kennedy?

click image to enlarge

[oren]

Am I looking at a Lincoln Sea solidly frozen with a frozen barrier towards the top of Kennedy?

I think not, I think it's a rush to the exit but it's all moving in Lincoln and Kennedy.
Click.

What I do wonder though is how come so much ice remains in and to the south of Kane basin, Maybe too much export for months has provided enough thick ice that manages to get stuck in there?

[be cause]

Has nares got an early winter plug ?

[grixm]

There's a big floe heading for the strait right now. Will it plug it, or break up into pieces?

[oren]

That's a really big one. Usually they break but this is interesting.

[John_the_Younger]

It'll break (I say).  Floes used to be thicker and they always broke.  Once, one seemed to stop at Hans Island for a day, but the next day it was broken and slid by.  What closes the Strait, I believe, is wind from the south making floes stand still long enough for fast ice to form.  A gyre in Kane Basin sometimes helps the process.

[Niall Dollard]

It cracked.

[Niall Dollard]

Plenty of blocks rolling and cracking up, down the Kennedy Channel.

 28 hr timelapse on Ramm-b

https://col.st/9gmPx

[Niall Dollard]

Since just before Christmas a new arch has formed in the Kane Basin.

Here is a GIF running through from 24th, 25th, 27th and 28th December.

[Niall Dollard]

Happy New Year !

And as we head into a new one, here is the updated list of new arch formation in the Nares Strait.  We start 2024 with an arch already well established since before Christmas. Hopefully this arch will continue to last until well into the summer.

2024 - December 23rd (2023)
2023 - March 30th
2022 - No arch
2021 - December 5th (2020).
2020 - December 17 (2019)
2019 - No arch
2018 - March 1st
2017 - No arch (in the strait proper)
2016 - December 6th (2015)
2015 - February 13th
2014 - January 5th (northern arch started - southern just after)
2013 - November 8th (2012)
2012 - December 6th (2011)
2011 - January 29th
2010 - No arch
2009 - Visible sat image shows arch at extreme north end of channel on March 10. Start date was sometime before this.
2008 - April 1st
2007 - No arch

[oren]

Nice, thanks for the update.
The last 5 years had 2 good arches, one late and 2 with no arch at all, so it's good news.

[uniquorn]

First signs? Difficult to tell for a couple of days.

[gerontocrat]

Here's a gif from images on https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php for the 7th & 14th May

No movement in the Arch

click gif to start and click again for fullsize

[uniquorn]

Thanks, it did seem a bit early

[Freegrass]

A big piece just broke off in the last 2 days.

[gerontocrat]

A big piece just broke off in the last 2 days.

I don't think so

Rubbishy stuff sometimes builds up in front of the arch and is then cleared way. These 2 images from https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php of the 24th and 28th May shows it happened and that the arch itself is still solid.

[gerontocrat]

But now it does look like the front edge of the arch is losing ice - though there is no SW movement of the arch itself.

gif attached of Kane on 29 & 31 May fom  https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php
Runs 6 times, click to start and click again to enlarge

[wallen]

Is the ice on the move?? Large crack in the ice near Hans Island, showing on Worldview.

[HapHazard]

Pic for reference:

[John_the_Younger]

See other cracks around Franklin Island, too (thinner than the one above Hans) and one further south near the Greenland coast which peters out in Kane Basin. From https://browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu/...

Franklin Is area

Kane Basin

[be cause]

mass movement !

[John_the_Younger]

Cracking everywhere! The end is near! 

[HapHazard]

Worldview, June 10th. Played with the image in GIMP to bring out the fractures more.

[Tammukka]

I think ice is now really moving.
https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

[HapHazard]

The next day. Clouded over, but from what I can see, everything south of Hans Island is now well on the move.

[Freegrass]

I'm seeing a big move at the end.

[Niall Dollard]

There is a very large crack at Hans Island. Unfortunately there's a lot of cloud obscuring the southern arch but it appears to have moved a little today. Hopefully we will see some clearer images soon which show the southern arch is on the move.

Above Hans Island I dont see much movement yet. Hans Island itself is holding the ice back at the Greenland side but this wouldnt be a typical location for a northern arch to hold for long. Ice may still hold in the Kennedy Channel for a few more days yet. Wouldnt call it open yet until the full Nares Strait is on the move.

[gerontocrat]

You can see (part) of the Arch front has moved substantially between the 10th and 11th June

Images from https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php

click gif to start, click to enlarge, runs 6 times

[Freegrass]

The wind blew in the other direction for a while yesterday, and pushed the ice back.
When the wind changes direction again today, I think it'll be game over.
Unless the ice is still strong enough, or the wind not powerful enough, to cause a new blockage, of course.

[gerontocrat]

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php

Everything is on the move... gif for 10 & 13 June attached - click gif to start, runs 6 times

no images available from DMI of Kennedy & Lincoln to see if movement has started there.

[John_the_Younger]

Copernicus image link

The really cracked up zone goes at least to Hans Island.  (open water in lower left corner; land at bottom and lower right - hazy due to thin clouds) Note 2 km scale in lower right corner.

[Freegrass]

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php

Everything is on the move... gif for 10 & 13 June attached - click gif to start, runs 6 times

no images available from DMI of Kennedy & Lincoln to see if movement has started there.

There's hardly any wind in the channel, and that's slowing things down.
But it's definitely over. There's no way this can last when the wind changes direction again.

[Freegrass]

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[Niall Dollard]

Lots of movement below Hans Island.

But we dont call it over until northern part of the Strait is on the move also.

[Niall Dollard]

The holding situation today in the Kennedy Channel.

[pearscot]

By my judgement, it looks like the Nares has broken up. Here's a gif I made today.

[Niall Dollard]

By my judgement, it looks like the Nares has broken up. Here's a gif I made today.

Thanks for gif Pearscot.

Look at top right of vid. The ice is still held back at Hans Island. It may not last for long. It may last until July. Who knows ?

The Nares Strait is not just the Kane Basin. Some years maybe only a northern arch forms. The end point is when we get full export through the Strait ie the full Strait clears and we start to see export of ice from the Lincoln Sea SW through the Strait.

[Freegrass]

There are some cracks appearing in the Lincoln sea. First signs of an imminent breakup?

https://go.nasa.gov/4eKHoij

Cool contrail too. Or what is that?

[oren]

Further down, half the Hans Island "arch" is broken.

[Niall Dollard]

Wow ! That's really fast movement down the Ellesmere side of the Kennedy Channel.

https://go.nasa.gov/45zn3br

[Niall Dollard]

A couple of sentinel images of the Franklin Island blockage on 23rd June

[johnm33]

For those who lost interest in the ITP128 thread it's worth a revisit to get some idea of what's possible at depth through Nares. A link to an A-Team post that's pretty much where that starts https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3927.msg367161.html#msg367161