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Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread  (Read 354592 times)

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #500 on: January 30, 2015, 03:34:31 PM »
FNORD

Laurent

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #501 on: January 30, 2015, 05:10:29 PM »
Not completely yet, the ice cream in Baffin is thickening so yes it may become impossible for the ice to escape Nares strait but...let's see if it does really jam Nares export.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
« Last Edit: January 30, 2015, 08:33:06 PM by Laurent »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #502 on: January 30, 2015, 05:27:59 PM »
Sonia called it on the 29th: it looks to me like south Kane Basin (just north of Smith Sound) has an ice bridge on NOAA AVHRR images from yesterday and today (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php).  But I recall that 'the shark' appeared to be stuck on Joe Island for a day or so. I do look forward to Sentinel images!

As I understand it, it is generally cold enough to constantly freeze surface sea water 'up there', so between the floes that separate out in the Lincoln Sea and that accelerate down Nares Strait, thin ice forms, but it doesn't get thick because it is constantly getting exported.  If the bridge holds, this thin ice will fairly quickly thicken enough to slow, then stop floes headed downstream, and most of (or at least a great deal of) Nares Strait will then be covered in 1st year ice with thicker floes and mélange stuck in it.

So when, this winter, will the last floe leave the Lincoln Sea and enter Robeson Channel (north end of Nares Strait)?  I'll guess February 5 (if bridge holds).
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Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #503 on: January 30, 2015, 08:01:42 PM »
Knock knock knocking on Hans Ø:

(Jan 28 - Jan 30)

Lets not hope it moves the island, then a major diplomatic war will start!
There are plenty of poor "patriotic" politicians on both side of the "conflict"
« Last Edit: January 30, 2015, 08:22:23 PM by Espen »
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Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #504 on: January 31, 2015, 08:39:18 AM »
Kane 28-30 January. The new arch is keeping the ice blocked from half way the basin.

(click to animate)

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #505 on: January 31, 2015, 08:59:23 AM »
I would love to see what that looks like from a boat, or walking across it.  Strong winds developing next Tuesday and Wednesday, that will show us if it's stable or not.
http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast/greenland#4/79.34/-55.72

So when, this winter, will the last floe leave the Lincoln Sea and enter Robeson Channel (north end of Nares Strait)?  I'll guess February 5 (if bridge holds).


Shouldn't the betting pool be for when it breaks?  When's the next full moon?
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Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #506 on: January 31, 2015, 09:51:09 PM »
How to build a bridge in the arctic Jan 28 - Jan 31:
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #507 on: January 31, 2015, 10:33:25 PM »
Ice Cruncher for sale (And I don't care what the Danes or Canadians think):
Have a ice day!

DrTskoul

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #508 on: January 31, 2015, 10:53:21 PM »
I would love to hear the sound!!!!
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Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #509 on: January 31, 2015, 11:06:09 PM »
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #510 on: January 31, 2015, 11:36:18 PM »
« Last Edit: January 31, 2015, 11:45:18 PM by Espen »
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Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #511 on: February 02, 2015, 08:51:33 AM »
The newly formed arch is well visible on the UH AMSR2 sea ice concentration maps.

Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #512 on: February 03, 2015, 08:08:44 AM »
Nares Strait, Kane Basin Jan 31 & Feb 2. The jam extends probably to the top of the basin by now.

viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #513 on: February 03, 2015, 01:37:01 PM »
Another Greenland heatwave. Could it loosen up the Kane bottleneck?
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solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #514 on: February 03, 2015, 05:34:04 PM »
FNORD

viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #515 on: February 03, 2015, 06:31:26 PM »
I think it can, if it goes all the way to the strait.
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Jester Fish

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #516 on: February 03, 2015, 11:35:12 PM »
I agree with Solar.... large anomaly, yes; mid-latitude heat getting pumped WAY north, yes; melting temps, NO.


viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #517 on: February 04, 2015, 11:40:25 AM »
Totally agree with Jester Fish,
large anomaly, yes; mid-latitude heat getting pumped WAY north, yes; melting temps, NO.
but it may loosen up the Kane bottleneck, which is the topic of discussion here.
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Rubikscube

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #518 on: February 05, 2015, 01:20:04 AM »
but it may loosen up the Kane bottleneck, which is the topic of discussion here.

I would assume the primary reason why hot weather should affect Nares is that such weather will likely be accompanied by strong winds, and right now, really strong winds would be the only thing that could possibly make Nares move again. However, I don't see that coming in the forecast.

Just let it go dog. It's over :D.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #519 on: February 05, 2015, 04:20:20 PM »
The bridge in Smith Sound/Kane Basin is standing (arching?) strong (per 2015-02-04 Sentinel image), but ice is still entering Robeson Channel from the Lincoln Sea (per NOAA AVHRR images.  Ice continues to break into discrete floes in the Lincoln Sea.  A huge floe is approaching the entrance to Nares.  Will it block the entrance or break up upon making contact with Ellesmere or Greenland shores?  (Every other floe, so far, has shattered when confronted with terra firma this season (some on their second or third bounce).)
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solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #520 on: February 05, 2015, 10:05:08 PM »
I think it's just a cloud, but the shape is weird. Worth checking on later.

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Jester Fish

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #521 on: February 05, 2015, 10:06:57 PM »
Does anyone have a sense of whether the degree to which ice floes are breaking upon impact with Ellesmere or Greenland this winter is different from the past?  It seems to me, that if there is a higher rate of breakage, that could indicate reduced ice integrity (i.e. softer, thinner, fractured, etc..) which has obvious implications for the melt season.  If breakage is similar, then well it's similar and not much can be concluded. 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #522 on: February 06, 2015, 01:57:36 PM »
Except for a couple (maybe exactly 2) times in the past, no ice flowed into Nares Strait in January or February (it was iced over), so there might not be significant data to compare.  (I don't know what satellite imagery is available. Data at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php goes back to about 2010.)  On the other hand, I'm not aware of Nares ever getting closed down by a floe after it opened during the summer.  (On the third hand, I may not have been watching close enough, so maybe I just don't know!)

This year's ice bridge in Smith Sound/Kane Basin was not caused by a single floe.

It is just coming to me that, although the terms "ice bridge" and "ice arch" are used synonymously, a 'bridge' may be more appropriate when a floe blocks the surface from shore to shore, whereas an 'arch' may be more appropriate when local ice forms the main structure that stops surface flow.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #523 on: February 06, 2015, 02:07:09 PM »
The floe that bounced on Hans Island a couple of times before breaking (a couple days ago) had its larger more intact 'half' on the south of Hans Island where it looked like it might get stuck behind Franklin Island.  Well, it shattered.  (The small floe with a huge black mark [per the Sentinel image] that was just behind the potentially-blocking floe is now right next to Hans Island, so we can tell about where the shattered floe should be.)

There is still movement at the north end of Nares Strait.
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Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #524 on: February 07, 2015, 08:43:00 AM »
The movement is actually in reverse, ice moving backward due to 50km/h SW winds.

(click to animate)

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #525 on: February 07, 2015, 11:05:14 AM »
Just checked the winds close up on http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.48,86.69,2048 just a chance they could force the tides and smash the arch.

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #526 on: February 07, 2015, 07:34:56 PM »
The winds were supposed to let up, still too cloudy to see clearly, but there seems to be a sudden increase of ice floes in Smith Sound.  Todays NOAA image on top.
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viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #527 on: February 07, 2015, 09:55:44 PM »
but it may loosen up the Kane bottleneck, which is the topic of discussion here.

I would assume the primary reason why hot weather should affect Nares is that such weather will likely be accompanied by strong winds, and right now, really strong winds would be the only thing that could possibly make Nares move again. However, I don't see that coming in the forecast.

Just let it go dog. It's over :D.

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solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #528 on: February 07, 2015, 10:49:32 PM »
Sentinel is in, partial collapse of the arch, blown up to the north, hard to say what will happen next.  I just looked at Kennedy pics, and floes that were well past Franklin Island are now upstream again.  Big addition of ice back into Lincoln as well.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/20150207s01a.ASAR.jpg

2 days ago  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/20150205s01a.ASAR.jpg
« Last Edit: February 07, 2015, 11:03:58 PM by solartim27 »
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Sonia

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #529 on: February 07, 2015, 11:26:48 PM »
Wow, I sure didn't expect that.  I really expected to ice in the Kane to be frozen fast for the winter.

Neven

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #530 on: February 08, 2015, 12:13:11 AM »
Rewind! Pretty cool.  8)
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be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #531 on: February 08, 2015, 01:05:00 AM »
 Must be quietly becoming the most interesting thread on the planet . Thanks .

The winds certainly suit Fram export in a big way over the next week and ice should pour into Lincoln as well . The chances of Nares flowing again seem high .. 
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tombond

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #532 on: February 08, 2015, 05:58:32 AM »
Must be quietly becoming the most interesting thread on the planet . Thanks .

Can only agree!

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #533 on: February 08, 2015, 07:25:50 AM »
Tried making a gif of the motion at Kennedy.  I can make out three floes easily, labeled A, B, and C.  Hope it works.  Might have to click on the pic to animate it.

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Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #534 on: February 08, 2015, 12:56:19 PM »
The southern arch near Smith Sound is retreating to the north (interesting behaviour):

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Shared Humanity

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #535 on: February 08, 2015, 02:49:45 PM »
The southern arch near Smith Sound is retreating to the north (interesting behaviour):

I wonder if the arch will maintain its integrity if the wind changes and it moves south again. Will it plug the hole or shatter?

viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #536 on: February 08, 2015, 05:28:18 PM »
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Rubikscube

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #537 on: February 09, 2015, 12:51:13 AM »
but it may loosen up the Kane bottleneck, which is the topic of discussion here.

I would assume the primary reason why hot weather should affect Nares is that such weather will likely be accompanied by strong winds, and right now, really strong winds would be the only thing that could possibly make Nares move again. However, I don't see that coming in the forecast.

Just let it go dog. It's over :D.

"I fear, Baldrick, that you will soon be eating those badly chosen words." Edmund Blackadder

I can assure you that right now all possible measures are being taken to eat those words :-[.

Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #538 on: February 09, 2015, 07:58:42 AM »
The view of the blowing arch seen by the AMSR2 satellite.

Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #539 on: February 09, 2015, 10:50:53 AM »
In the middle of the Kane is still Sonia's ice floe/berg. Hi res (10m/pix) Sentinel image from Feb 6.

viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #540 on: February 09, 2015, 10:54:47 AM »
To summarise, the Nares Strait is a saltwater 'river' carrying 10 times the amount of water of the Amazon — the world's biggest river — and the Strait's wider at the narrowest than even the nether regions of the Amazon. The reason for the near–constant running of the Nares Strait 'river' is the difference in sea level provided primarily by the Beaufort Gyre. Other Canadian Archipelago straits are also feeling this difference. To give you a perspective of the width: In the nether regions of the Amazon river you cannot see the shore from 'mid–fjord', the Nares is wider but here you can see the shore from mid–fjord because of the landscape, with mountains and giant glaciers.

The Nordic or Viking name of the Strait is unsure. It is certainly not Straumfjord, which is more likely the St. Lawrence area or even the Hudson River in New York. Vikings hunted and traded with the inuits in the Nares area, leaving remains for instance on Ruin Island, calling the inuits 'skrælinger', meaning presumably '(seal) skin–dressed'. Norse vikings avoided the Black Death that arrived in Bergen because the ship lines were disrupted by the same pest, but at the same time the supply line was cut and the Garðar bishop seat was discontinued. Vikings who regularly went to America (Vinland) to get timber for house– and boat construction also most likely 'disappeared' from Greenland by abandoning their settlements and settling with the inuits and/or indians of North America. A very popular ball–game among the Norse was found by anthropologists among the native Americans in very similar versions using the same bats or tools. So our Northern European ancestors were there, playing ball with the locals, long before they were 'discovered' by our Southern European cousins.

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solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #541 on: February 09, 2015, 07:39:56 PM »
Ice field from South Nares through Lincoln is mostly stationary, with light winds forecast through the week.  Climate Reanalyzer shows a chance for some action next Saturday, but it's not clear to me which direction the wind will be in.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #542 on: February 09, 2015, 08:47:46 PM »
I spend a weekend with family and friends and Nares Strait ice goes back to where it came from! Or did DMI just rename some old images to throw us off?;D

The 02-09 Sentinel image of Kane Basin shows that ice has generally moved 5 to 7 km 'upstream' since the 02-07 image (including Sonia's ice floe/berg).  Some ice that was near the old bridge's edge has moved more toward Ellesmere Island than, strictly, upstream.  The numerous leads in the ice suggests to me that it has actually started to move south again, with the 'southern' ice moving a mite faster than the 'more-northern' ice.  I don't really believe the 'more-northern' ice is travelling 'north' more quickly (but this would also explain the leads).

It has been a delight to look at some of the images made available through http://www.polarview.aq/arctic - thanks to the person on some other thread who published it [edit: Thanks, Arcticio, for posting on Neven's blog.].  These (and the 02-09 Sentinel image through DMI) show the fractured nature of the old bridge.  I don't see any way for it to reestablish itself, and expect a lot more ice to pass through Smith Sound this winter*.  (This, of course, doesn't prevent it from reestablishing itself. :P )

* - Is it still winter?  I saw lots of bloodroot blooming in my yard this weekend. [Edit: +1s and a -1 C lows in coming week's forecast. I guess it still is winter here in north Florida.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanguinaria)
« Last Edit: February 09, 2015, 09:19:54 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #543 on: February 09, 2015, 09:30:44 PM »
Many thanks to Arcticio for pointing me at PolarView, which readily revealed this Sentinel image of "the arch" earlier today:
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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #544 on: February 09, 2015, 11:07:28 PM »
This thread is, well, WOW! Rewinding the whole arch, interesting trick of mother nature. I wonder what happens next, can't see the arch placing itself right back where it was.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #545 on: February 10, 2015, 04:15:35 PM »
PolarView makes this far too easy! Here's a more complete image from yesterday evening (UTC)
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Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #546 on: February 12, 2015, 09:07:16 AM »
Kennedy, the reverse ice motion extends nearly to the top of the Strait.

Neven

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #547 on: February 12, 2015, 11:19:26 AM »
I posted about this on the ASIB yesterday: Erase and rewind.

So, what happens now? Will all of that mobile ice firmly refreeze into place as soon as the wind dies down?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #548 on: February 12, 2015, 12:28:01 PM »
Will all of that mobile ice firmly refreeze into place as soon as the wind dies down?

Some further movement is revealed by this Sentinel 1A image from February 11th:
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #549 on: February 12, 2015, 04:13:32 PM »
Right now [16:12] on http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.48,86.69,1024 we have winds blowing directly out of both ends the strait. If that doesn't keep it open nothing will.