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Author Topic: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica  (Read 420811 times)

Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1650 on: January 21, 2021, 09:08:10 PM »
The big question for me is: will the lower concentration enhance further melting and decay which then leads to larger than average reductions in extent as long as the melting season continues (4-5 weeks)?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

FredBear

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1651 on: January 22, 2021, 12:49:51 AM »
Thanks gerontocrat - I nearly asked how the concentration was going the other day with the succession of slightly low extent losses after the high losses towards the maximum rate period.
The extent values had climbed back to position 26 (sat. record) and 13 (out of the 22 years since 2000) from 15 & 7 on 31 December.
The next 4 extent positions in the last 22 years are all less than 280k ahead of this year now (the following one is a bigger challenge at 566k) with about 32 days to minimum.
I think the low concentration should create higher than average extent losses while it continues - but I would have been wrong in the past 3 weeks! Likely to be a fairly average year?
On the other hand the concentration graphs have a broad distribution until about 20th March so we could be in for interesting times and the time of the minimum might be late.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1652 on: January 22, 2021, 11:12:15 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,060,220 KM2 as at 21-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 91k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.80 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.64 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,743 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  998 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  735 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  182 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  75 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 91.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 31 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1653 on: January 23, 2021, 11:55:41 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,970,431 KM2 as at 22-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 90k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.89 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.73 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,588 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  989 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  709 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  142 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  80 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 92.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 30 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1654 on: January 24, 2021, 01:23:05 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,843,787 KM2 as at 23-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 127k, 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.02 million km2, 0.21 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.81 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,508 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  919 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  651 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  69 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  129 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 92.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 29 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.67 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)