Thwaites Glacier Discussion

[vox_mundi]

Study Identifies New Cause of Melting Antarctic Ice Shelves
https://phys.org/news/2022-12-antarctic-ice-shelves.html

An international team of scientists found that adjacent ice shelves play a role in causing instability in others downstream.

The study, led by the University of East Anglia in the UK, also identified that a small ocean gyre—a system of circulating ocean currents—next to the Thwaites Ice Shelf can impact the amount of glacial-meltwater flowing beneath it. When that gyre is weaker, more warm water can access the areas beneath the ice shelf, causing it to melt.

The Thwaites Ice Shelf is one of the biggest ice shelves in West Antarctica and buttresses the eastern side of the Thwaites Glacier, which has been retreating rapidly over the last 20 years and is the largest contributor to global sea-level rise among Antarctic glaciers.

Using a unique dataset collected by sensors installed beneath the Thwaites Ice Shelf—which has also thinned and weakened significantly in recent decades—the researchers observed that the shallow layers of the ocean underneath it warmed considerably during the period from January 2020 to March 2021.

Most of this warming was driven by waters with a high volume of glacial meltwater originating from the Pine Island Ice Shelf, further east, flowing into the area beneath the Thwaites Ice Shelf.

The glacial meltwater mixes with saltwater when the ocean melts the base of ice shelves and can form a buoyant layer of water that is warmer than the surrounding waters. This lighter, relatively fresher and warmer water brings heat that melts the base of the Thwaites Ice Shelf.



... In January 2020 colleagues from the US drilled holes in the ice and installed sensors monitoring temperature, salinity and ocean current beneath the Thwaites Ice Shelf.

For more than a year these sensors sent, via satellite, the data used to identify the ocean variations, for example how the temperature and meltwater content varied. From these observations, the researchers suspected that the excess of heat could not have originated locally at the Thwaites Ice Shelf because they did not see strong melting at the sites where the sensors were installed.

By combining the information with computer simulations to identify the origin of this heat, they found that the water that leaves the Pine Island Ice Shelf can access the areas beneath Thwaites Ice Shelf.

The mechanism that explains how these waters access the Thwaites Ice Shelf was identified by using model simulations and data collected by tags attached to seals. They both showed that a gyre near the Thwaites Ice Shelf weakens in winter, which allows more heat to reach shallow areas beneath the ice shelf.

Satellite images also showed that the Southern Hemisphere summer season of 2020/2021 was unusual because it had a high concentration of sea ice in regions near the Thwaites Ice Shelf.

Drawing on the simulations and previous research, the team hypothesized that the gyre was even weaker, so the excess of meltwater from adjacent ice shelves could not be moved away from that region by the currents and instead entered the Thwaites Ice Shelf. This further reduced the strength of this gyre, which enabled the inflow of water with higher concentration of glacial meltwater beneath the ice shelf.

Tiago S. Dotto et al, Ocean variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf driven by the Pine Island Bay Gyre strength, Nature Communications (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35499-5

[Chris83]

Latest view of B-22 (24.12.2022)
More and more cracks are visible.
It has been sunny in the area (world view photos).. Seems the portion most exposed to open sea is suffering the most. (northern area).
Approx 60 days to minimum. No "heatwave" expected this week.
Temperature anomalies near 0 the last few days. (-0.22c today)

(and Merry Christmas to all of you)

[baking]

More and more cracks are visible.

Wet snow shows up darker in these radar images so it happens this time of year that you see artifacts like these darker features, but icebergs are very thick and I wouldn't read too much into what you see on the surface.  Remember 90% of an iceberg is under the water and what you are seeing is just the thinnest part of the other 10%.

[Stephan]

New crack at the tip of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS)

In the last two weeks a small crack has developed at the tip of TEIS (blue arrow, N of the dashed blue line). It lies at the end of the rift (dashed orange line) that divides the grounded western part of TEIS and the slowly NE moving eastern part of TEIS.

To put this picture (ca. 15 * 8 km) into the larger context I add a second picture that shows in the green box where the first picture is located.

East of TEIS our old friend "Cork" from PIIS still lies grounded, surrounded by fast ice.

[Chris83]

The new update (29.12)
This is zoomed in on B22 ...a larger map is available on polarview

[Chris83]

The new Polarview update (31.12.2022)
It is zoomed in and cropped a bit.
Despite the rather cold temperatures, the record sea ice loss is also visible across that area.
52 days to minimum according to Gerontocrat's data.
West Antarctica will be warmer than average all week, it seems.

[Chris83]

  There is a new Polarview image (03.01)
  This one is slightly cropped/ zoomed in
  The red arrows show the area the most damaged when compared to the 25.12.2022.
  Maybe an expert can comment on the reason? (meltwater from ice on land?)

[NotaDenier]

https://hakaimagazine.com/features/how-we-came-to-know-and-fear-the-doomsday-glacier/

RAM! The bright red hull of the US Coast Guard icebreaker Glacier slammed onto the ice. Every rivet of the 95-meter-long ship shuddered with the impact. It was 1985, and the researchers aboard were sailing through one of the world’s most remote places: the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica. A graduate student onboard, Jill Singer, got to try her hand at breaking ice during the voyage. “You push the throttle or thrusters up,” she explains. “It would lift the front of the Glacier out of the water enough to drop down on the ice and break it.” RAM! After several days of charging at sea ice with bone-aching resolve, the Glacier broke through.

“[We] broke into … a beautifully calm, ice-free sea, the eye in a hurricane of ice,” glaciologist Terry Hughes later wrote of the moment—one he had been dreaming of since at least the 1970s when he first started worrying about glacial collapse.

The Glacier became the first ship to sail into Pine Island Bay.

[Chris83]

The new Polarview image (04.01) ..zooming in on the Inland damage I mentioned yesterday
Spectacular , considering 48 days to go to sea ice minimum
More heat next week according to GFS

[solartim27]

And now two fixed pictures to show the extent of the cracks that have appeared in the pas months. Of particular concern for me is the one at the back of the TEIS, but seeing cracks appearing on the western side so much upstream is quite disqueiting too.
I am afraid we will know about MICI sooner than later.

Just about a year on since the big crack above was first posted about. Very curious when it will fully calve.

[Chris83]

Lots of things happening near Thwaites
Further north, today...new big cracks
(Area was far worse in 2020..but still interesting )

[Stephan]

Thanks for posting this. I have just made an analysis of the eroded area in the "Sea ice in Amundesn Sea / Pine Island Bay" thread without having noticed your post...

[Chris83]

An exceptional clear day over Thwaites today
(no polarview last 2 days)
Sort of stable situation IMO

[baking]

Sort of stable situation IMO

The calm before the storm . . .

[solartim27]

Not very stable when you can use the clear day to use the comparison tool see how far B22 has moved, or look on the Icebergs thread for a GIF
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1790014.8625491534,-639746.6399279889,-1599571.8930867875,-543530.3038637936&p=antarctic&l1=Reference_Labels_15m(hidden),Reference_Features_15m(hidden),Coastlines_15m,VIIRS_NOAA20_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&ca=false&cv=83&t=2023-01-07-T01%3A28%3A10Z&t1=2022-12-25-T01%3A28%3A10Z

[baking]

I think he meant that nothing much had happened since his previous post 3 days before.

[FredBear]

That comparison image posted by solartim works well. It can be even more effective to see what else is happening if one moves the view around the area - PIG  is also changing a bit, pack ice is also flooding into the bay from the northeast, the state of the barrier chain of grounded icebergs to the west of B22    .     .     .

[baking]

pack ice is also flooding into the bay from the northeast

I'm not seeing that.  Could you explain more or include a link.  There has been some discussion over in the Amundsen Sea thread that might relate: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2927.0.html

[FredBear]

pack ice is also flooding into the bay from the northeast

I'm not seeing that.  Could you explain more or include a link.  There has been some discussion over in the Amundsen Sea thread that might relate: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2927.0.html

The surface flows from the PIG and Thwaites Glaciers (presumably from fresher water melt) tend to sweep loose ice north and west out of the Pine Island Bay. Pack ice flows down the coastline further from the east and tends to flow south as it rounds the corner towards the bay, reducing the chances of the bay being cleared of all the ice?

[uniquorn]

awi sic-leads v110, pib, jan1-7

[oren]

Comparing 2nd Jan to 7th Jan, B22 seems to all be moving out, not just pivoting around some grounded point. More of such movement is clear comparing 25 Dec to 7 Jan.

Are there more places where it might get grounded?
Has it likely worked itself free now and only likely to continue moving out?
Or is it possible that it might drift back further in and get grounded again?

This is discussed in the Antarctic icebergs thread.

[oren]

Moved some posts to the other thread. Please try to limit this thread to Thwaites stuff. B-22A goes in Antarctic icebergs. Sea ice in front of Thwaites goes to the Pine Island Bay sea ice thread.

[vox_mundi]

AI Developed to Monitor Changes to the Globally Important Thwaites Glacier
https://phys.org/news/2023-01-ai-globally-important-thwaites-glacier.html



Scientists have developed artificial intelligence techniques to track the development of crevasses—or fractures—on the Thwaites Glacier Ice Tongue in west Antarctica.

Published today (Monday, January 9) in the journal Nature Geoscience, the research focused on a part of the glacier system where the ice flows into the sea and begins to float. Where this happens is known as the grounding line and it forms the start of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf and the Thwaites Glacier Ice Tongue, which is also an ice shelf.

The scientists wanted to know if crevassing or fracture formation in the glacier was more likely to occur with changes to the speed of the ice flow.

Using machine learning, the researchers taught a computer to look at radar satellite images and identify changes over the last decade. The images were taken by the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 satellites, which can "see" through the top layer of snow and onto the glacier, revealing the fractured surface of the ice normally hidden from sight.

The analysis revealed that over the last six years, the Thwaites Glacier ice tongue has sped up and slowed down twice, by around 40% each time—from four km/year to six km/year before slowing. This is a a substantial increase in the magnitude and frequency of speed change compared with past records.

The study found a complex interplay between crevasse formation and speed of the ice flow. When the ice flow quickens or slows, more crevasses are likely to form. In turn, the increase in crevasses causes the ice to change speed as the level of friction between the ice and underlying rock alters.

Dr. Anna Hogg, a glaciologist in the Satellite Ice Dynamics group at Leeds and an author on the study, said, "Dynamic changes on ice shelves are traditionally thought to occur on timescales of decades to centuries, so it was surprising to see this huge glacier speed up and slow down so quickly."

"The study also demonstrates the key role that fractures play in un-corking the flow of ice—a process known as 'unbuttressing.' Ice sheet models must be evolved to account for the fact that ice can fracture, which will allow us to measure future sea level contributions more accurately."

Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Episodic dynamic change linked to damage on the thwaites glacier ice tongue, Nature Geoscience (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01097-9

Abstract

The stability and dynamics of Thwaites Glacier depend on the structural properties of its marine terminus; however, the relationship between these variables on the floating ice tongue is poorly understood. Here we present a six-year record of ice speed, derived from satellite observations starting in 2015, showing two large-magnitude (approximately 30–45%) and prolonged (approximately one to two years) cycles of speed variation across the ice tongue. Using an automated, deep learning-based method of extracting high-resolution fracture maps from satellite imagery, we detail periods of increasing fracture development and subsequent reconsolidation in the ice tongue shear margin that coincide with the observed speed changes. Inverse modelling using the BISICLES ice-sheet model indicates that the variation in ice speed can be accounted for by these observed changes to the spatial pattern of fracturing. This study provides further evidence of direct coupling between fracturing and dynamic variability in West Antarctica but indicates that increased fracturing and associated speed changes are reversible on one- to two-year timescales. We suggest that fracturing does not necessarily lead to positive feedback with glacier acceleration on these timescales and that damage process modelling is important for accurately predicting the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Sentinel-1 and AI Uncover Glacier Crevasses
https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-1/Sentinel-1_and_AI_uncover_glacier_crevasses

Scientists have developed a new Artificial Intelligence, or AI, technique using radar images from Europe’s Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite mission, to reveal how the Thwaites Glacier Ice Tongue in West Antarctica is being damaged by squeezing and stretching as it flows from the middle of the continent to the coast. Being able to track fractures and crevasses in the ice beneath the overlying snow is key to better predicting the fate of floating ice tongues under climate change.

[baking]

12-day low-res GIF of the sea ice off of Thwaites Tongue shows a couple of new cracks reaching to the former "cork" large iceberg.  The cork may finally "pop" for good.  Image is 20 km on a side.

[baking]

12-day GIF showing the former "cork" floating free.

[Sciguy]

Newly published paper in Nature Communications:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35471-3

Christie, F.D.W., Steig, E.J., Gourmelen, N. et al. Inter-decadal climate variability induces differential ice response along Pacific-facing West Antarctica. Nat Commun 14, 93 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35471-3

Abstract
West Antarctica has experienced dramatic ice losses contributing to global sea-level rise in recent decades, particularly from Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Although these ice losses manifest an ongoing Marine Ice Sheet Instability, projections of their future rate are confounded by limited observations along West Antarctica’s coastal perimeter with respect to how the pace of retreat can be modulated by variations in climate forcing. Here, we derive a comprehensive, 12-year record of glacier retreat around West Antarctica’s Pacific-facing margin and compare this dataset to contemporaneous estimates of ice flow, mass loss, the state of the Southern Ocean and the atmosphere. Between 2003 and 2015, rates of glacier retreat and acceleration were extensive along the Bellingshausen Sea coastline, but slowed along the Amundsen Sea. We attribute this to an interdecadal suppression of westerly winds in the Amundsen Sea, which reduced warm water inflow to the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Our results provide direct observations that the pace, magnitude and extent of ice destabilization around West Antarctica vary by location, with the Amundsen Sea response most sensitive to interdecadal atmosphere-ocean variability. Thus, model projections accounting for regionally resolved ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions will be important for predicting accurately the short-term evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Our results show that, in contrast to the Bellingshausen coastline, rates of grounding-line retreat slowed pervasively along the Amundsen Sea Embayment and Getz Ice Shelf between 2003 and 2008 and 2010 and 2015. The most notable slowdowns occurred at the Pine Island (56 m yr−1), Thwaites (84 m yr−1), Pope (126 m yr−1) and Smith/Kohler (107 m yr−1) basins, while along Getz Ice Shelf, grounding-line retreat slowed by 24 m yr−1 on average (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 2; Supplementary Data 2). Whereas localised increases in ice-flow acceleration were detected along parts of the coastline (including, for example, stretches of central Getz Ice Shelf in line with previous research8,23), the observed slowdown in grounding-line retreat was largely associated with a decrease in the pace of ice-flow acceleration, including at and inland of the Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers' grounding lines (Fig. 1). Contemporaneously, ice shelves along this stretch of the coastline experienced reduced rates of thinning by up to 51% relative to the 25-year altimetry record18,22. Negligible change in grounding-line migration rate was detected between Abbot Ice Shelf and Pine Island Glacier, except for a local unpinning on the southern flank of Cosgrove Ice Shelf (Fig. 1). Collectively, our observations reveal a clear slowdown in the rate of ice-dynamical imbalance between 2003-2008 and 2010-2015 across the Amundsen Sector.

Along the Amundsen Sea region, there is clear inter-decadal variability in the volume of CDW transported across the continental shelf. The strong reduction in CDW in the 2010-2015 period compared with 2003-2008 (Fig. 3) coincided with an unambiguous reduction in the rate of grounding-line retreat in this area (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 2). This was associated with a reduction in the pace of ice-flow acceleration along the grounding line of most outlet glaciers (Fig. 1) and, by implication, a slowing in the rate of ice-dynamical imbalance through time. Recent observations of reduced ice-thinning rates18,22,32,33 and a stabilisation in mass balance trends1,34 from c. 2010 in the Amundsen Sector (Methods; Supplementary Fig. support these observations. The reduced volume of CDW in the eastern Amundsen Sea (Fig. 3) can be attributed to its suppressed delivery to the deep-bedded entrance of the eastern and western Pine Island troughs, especially, in turn a consequence of reduced upwelling at the continental-shelf break (Fig. 2c). Changes in near-shore upwelling also explain the net slowdown in grounding-line migration rate and reduction in the pace of ice-flow acceleration at Dotson Ice Shelf (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 2), which reduced ice-shelf-averaged thinning22 and facilitated a 2-km re-advance of Kohler Glacier from c. 201113,29. Similar mechanisms reduced upwelling and limited CDW ingress beneath Getz Ice Shelf 30, consistent with the net reduction in grounding-line retreat rate we observe along this stretch of the coastline (Fig. 1). Collectively, our observations show that the rate of ice response (grounding-line retreat and ice-flow acceleration change) from the Amundsen Sea Embayment to the western Getz Ice Shelf is in-phase with atmosphere-ocean forcing over inter-decadal timescales. The pervasiveness of this relationship along a margin transected by multiple glaciers, with bed slopes ranging from reverse to prograde9, signals the primary influence of the inter-decadal forcing on rates of glaciological change.

For an easier to read summary of the paper, try this news article:

https://scitechdaily.com/ice-sheet-wide-collapse-in-west-antarctica-isnt-inevitable-runaway-ice-retreat-can-be-slowed/

Ice-Sheet-Wide Collapse in West Antarctica Isn’t Inevitable: Runaway Ice Retreat Can Be Slowed
By UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE JANUARY 16, 2023

Runaway West Antarctic ice retreat can be slowed by climate-driven changes in ocean temperature.

New research finds that ice-sheet-wide collapse in West Antarctica isn’t inevitable: the pace of ice loss varies according to regional differences in atmosphere and ocean circulation.

” Ocean and atmospheric forcing mechanisms still really, really matter in West Antarctica,” said co-author Professor Eric Steig from the University of Washington in Seattle. “That means that ice-sheet collapse is not inevitable. It depends on how climate changes over the next few decades, which we could influence in a positive way by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

[gerontocrat]

12-day GIF showing the former "cork" floating free.

With the cork gone, it will be interesting to see how quickly the ice behind it moves into open water, and if in turn that releases yet more ice.

[Chris83]

Polarview 27.01.2023
Stuff happening.

[baking]

12-day GIF showing how little of the fast sea ice off of Thwaites Western Ice Tongue (TWIT) remains and today's continuing break-up of the melange.  Image is 50km on a side.

[baking]

Seems like a lot of slippage along the "fault line" of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) in today's 12-day High resolution GIF.

[baking]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/15/glacier-ice-melt-ocean-warming/

A couple of new papers out today in Nature.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00395-5

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05586-0 (Open Access)

"Here we show—using observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole—that the grounding zone of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is characterized by a warm and highly stable water column with temperatures substantially higher than the in situ freezing point. Despite these warm conditions, low current speeds and strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary layer actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice base, resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our results demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal melting used to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce observed melt rates beneath this critically important glacier, and that rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05691-0 (Open Access)

"These observations show a rough ice base above a sea floor sloping upward
towards the GL and an ocean cavity in which the warmest water exceeds 2 °C above
freezing. Data closest to the ice base show that enhanced melting occurs along
sloped surfaces that initiate near the GL and evolve into steep-sided terraces.
This pronounced melting along steep ice faces, including in crevasses, produces
stratification that suppresses melt along flat interfaces. These data imply that
slope-dependent melting sculpts the ice base and acts as an important response to
ocean warming."

[baking]

I've noticed in the latest high resolution images of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) a concerning crack developing quite recently.  There has been a long developing shear line between the moving part of the Ice Shelf and the firmly grounded tip, but a major source of resistance has been a couple of spurs (labelled "1" and "2" below) pointing in opposite directions that have hooked into each other.  While it may have slowed things down, it does redirect the forces to other parts of the shelf.  There is now a rapidly spreading crack growing into the grounded portion of the shelf.  I don't know what it means, but it is something to watch.

I also have a 4-year GIF of the TEIS for your viewing pleasure.  About one image every 3 months.

[grixm]

I've noticed in the latest high resolution images of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) a concerning crack developing quite recently.  There has been a long developing shear line between the moving part of the Ice Shelf and the firmly grounded tip, but a major source of resistance has been a couple of spurs (labelled "1" and "2" below) pointing in opposite directions that have hooked into each other.  While it may have slowed things down, it does redirect the forces to other parts of the shelf.  There is now a rapidly spreading crack growing into the grounded portion of the shelf.  I don't know what it means, but it is something to watch.

I also have a 4-year GIF of the TEIS for your viewing pleasure.  About one image every 3 months.

Very cool animation in general, plenty of other interesting observations can be made as well. The crack you point out is not the only new one, one is also visible on the western portion of the shear line, growing rapidly in the last frame or two. This is part of a broader section of the shear line that finally seemed to detach fully from the grounded pinning area in the last year or two.

This brought a marked change to the western side of the pinning area. Up until the shearing line cracked, this pinning area moved northeastward, together with the rest of the glacier. However, after the detachment, it has stopped moving in this direction, and even reversed direction. You can see this in the last few frames of the animation. The pinning area was being compressed, but has now started to decompress like a deflating balloon. It looks like this might lead to calvings on the western side in the coming years, maybe from the new growing crack. Though maybe the whole pinning area will just collapse entirely even before that.

[oren]

A hypnotizing animation.
It seems the back end of the TEIS is not as solid as the front end being pushed out to sea. I wonder if we will see a change in the stability of the shelf once the solid part is fully calved (in a couple of years?).

[baking]

A hypnotizing animation.
It seems the back end of the TEIS is not as solid as the front end being pushed out to sea. I wonder if we will see a change in the stability of the shelf once the solid part is fully calved (in a couple of years?).

That is certainly one of the potential failure modes, albeit five years away.  Although I think we should stop talking about haw many years away something is and just state a range of calendar years.  In this case the 2025-2030 range.

Here is a discussion of other scenarios after the big AGU press conference in December 2021: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1760.msg329329.html#msg329329

I have to say my current nightmare is that I will wake up one morning and the "spur" labelled #1 in my image three posts up will have broken off from the moving portion of the shelf and there will be no more resistance at the shear line.  Although I'm not sure how much it will speed up, even without any significant connection to the pinning point.  That's a 2023-2025 scenario.

[Phil.]

Exactly Oren, that's my impression too.  That 'solid' triangular chunk that seems to being flowed around appears to be having fractions stripped off so would eventually break up completely.  It will be interesting to see what happens to the stability of the rest.

[Stephan]

baking,
also from me a big thank you for this long-term animation. I also noticed, as Oren already has, a much weaker upstream part of the TEIS which in my impression will make the TEIS much less stable after the solid part will have left the scenery.

[trm1958]

Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier is much more Precarious than we thought due to Basil Crevice Melt
4,255 views  Feb 15, 2023
Paul Beckwith

[oren]

Paul Beckwith is highly suspect as a scientific source, tending to drum up fears and oversimplify for the sake of viewership
If any of the resident experts actually watches this video please let me know if it passes the quality test.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

Is Paul more trustworthy than, or comparable to the Sam and Guy types? Seen him around before, never bothered to watch any videos yet to find out. Does he have any particularly relevant insight into the Thwaites glacier that’s worth noting?

[kassy]

Sort of skimmed through it. Here he just discusses the recent articles and well they are bad enough so he does not need to add much (or it´s not quite as bad as his last ASI analysis  ).

Of course there is a typo in the video name...

[gerontocrat]

He lost credibility through increasingly wild and dramatic pronouncements on imminent doom.
I don't know if he is still doing serious research or (like me most of the time) just commentating on the work of other scientists.

A pinch (and sometimes a bucketful) of salt is required when reading his stuff.

[oren]

Thanks, I'll keep it but watchers beware of wild spins.

[FredBear]

Oren, Reply #583 on: February 16, 2023:- "It seems the back end of the TEIS is not as solid as the front end being pushed out to sea"

I notice on the Worldview image for the 20th that the (edit: outlined) extreme southeastern tip of the Thwaites eastern ice shelf has lost ice recently. However there is a lot of the old fast ice from the area which has accumulated against the fraying eastern edge of the shelf which may consolidate/protect it during the coming winter freeze?

Other edges in the Thwaites area have been continuing to break away recently but some of the ice may not move far before the winter freeze

In a similar vein - the pack of icebergs which have accumulated to the west of the old B22 position may consolidate and form a stronger barrier just after so much ice has been cleared away after being trapped for many years    .     .     ?

[baking]

I notice on the Worldview image for the 20th that the southeastern tip of the Thwaites eastern ice shelf has lost ice.

Just to clarify, Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf has not lost any ice this season, that is to say there has been no calvings.  It has lost some of the protective fast sea ice and previously calved icebergs.  Mostly due to the persistent wind coming from the East (and warmer air and water temperatures.)

[Jacobus]

Paul Beckwith is highly suspect as a scientific source, tending to drum up fears and oversimplify for the sake of viewership
If any of the resident experts actually watches this video please let me know if it passes the quality test.

He's 100% honest and credible. I don't see anyone bringing up anything specific other than a case of attacking the messenger but not the message, says something about his detractors. No more or less credible than anyone who has posted here. Been reading here for years and I love it, but the snobbery is just so damn off putting and repulsive.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

Tone and framing can have significant impact on credibility regardless of the covered content. Clickbait/scaremongering articles can discuss fantastic research papers while still managing to do a poor job of accurately and responsibly translating that info for public digestion

[baking]

The Western flank of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is exposed to open water for possibly the first time ever.  12-day GIF.  It's late in the season, so I don't know if anything will come from it, but there may be the possibility of calving.

[gerontocrat]

Looking at the gif it seemed to be that a separation might be underway to the right of the exposed flank as indicated on the attached image.

If so a lot of stuff could be released.

[baking]

Slightly better view of the Western flank of TEIS in today's 12-day GIF.