Baking: Let's have your thoughts! Is buttressing a thing of the past?
I always feel that my perspective might be biased because I'm only looking at satellite images and don't have information on what is going on under the ice, but I do have a strong sense that the shear margin is rapidly weakening and that other possible scenarios are just less likely to occur.
1) The oldest theory was that TEIS would thin out and lift off its pinning points at the northern end.
2) Then there was a Sept. 2021 paper that suggested "back-stress" from the pinning points could cause "rapid fragmentation" of TEIS:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1760.msg322503.html#msg3225033) And a Dec. 2021 press conference at AGU that announced a weakened area of TEIS that could potentially meet with growing transverse rifts that could cause a failure as early as 2024:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1760.msg327945.html#msg327945My current sense is that the shear margin is absorbing all these stresses making these scenarios less likely to occur. The moving part of TEIS is no longer firmly attached to the pinned part making the first two scenarios unlikely, and for the same reason the transverse rifts are no longer growing making the third scenario less likely.
I am obviously concerned that this seems like an "easy answer" that also makes all the other options go away, but nonetheless it appears to be what is happening.
Below is a diagram of what I am seeing. The "Zones of Destruction" (an old ASIF terminology) are areas where there is no longer any significant resistance in the shear margin. All the resistance is in the center, assisted by to opposing "spurs" that have locked into each other. The ultimate failure of the shear margin could occur along a number potential fault lines shown in orange.
Edit: I updated the captions to differentiate between the old transverse rifts in the moving portion of TEIS and the new transverse rifts forming in the fixed portion.