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DoomInTheUK

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Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« on: November 01, 2016, 01:39:27 PM »
As the Arctic slowly melts away, this board seems to have a pretty good handle on tracking and forecasting how the ice responds to the prevailing conditions.

It is the Arctic Sea Ice forum after all.

It is often touted that an ice free Arctic is <insert number here> years away. This has an implication that nothing much will happen until that point is reached. A similar reaction occurs when discussing CO2 doubling and AGW.
Long before the dreaded blue ocean event the effects will start to become more pronounced. I feel that the last few years are an indication of how things start to get 'confused' in the world climate as the influence of the ice recedes.

So we might see:

  • Larger, more powerful storms
  • More droughts
  • More wildfires
  • More climate refugees
  • Crop failures
  • Fisheries failures
  • Flooding
  • Switch to an equable climate - enough in that for it's own thread!

These are all issues that go along with climate change and the loss of sea ice can only intensify them.

There are some serious questions raised by the prospect of these points, and the impact to humanity. After all I've read about climate change, sea ice, financial instability, energy deficiencies, and human nature then I must say that I'm not hopeful about the future.

The part that really hurts is not being able to put anything like a time frame on it. Within 50 years, certainly. Within 3 years, unlikely.  The bit in the middle is where we're all living.

I've been through the 5 stages of grief about it, and I think I've discovered a 6th. I accept it will happen but I have a general unease with not knowing when!

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 02:59:14 PM »
For myself it would be that huge switch in energy for the planet? In my youth over 90% of all incoming was harmlessly reflected back into space before impacting the climate system. We now face over 80% of that incoming being harvested, by the land/ocean, and then filtered into the climate system which , as we all know, is now holding onto that energy ever longer due to the ever thickening Greenhouse blanket.

The world goes nuts when El Nino rears up but how much energy does an ice free basin accrue over the Arctic summer compared to the energy an average Nino releases back into the climate system?
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Buddy

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 03:24:33 PM »
Quote
The world goes nuts when El Nino rears up but how much energy does an ice free basin accrue over the Arctic summer compared to the energy an average Nino releases back into the climate system?

I agree.  Truly the most frightening thing we face.  Even a "nonscientist" such as myself can understand the basic effects of what IS and will continue to happen and ACCELERATE as more and more ice is shed.  It is the SPEED at which they will happen once that security blanket of ice is melted away that is really troublesome.
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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 04:09:07 PM »
I think that if the arctic ice is having trouble growing now, the year after the first blue ocean it will have a heck of a lot more trouble growing. Since it is November and the ocean is still venting heat, I expect the  freezing season to be delayed until at least November, depending mostly on how early the ice disappeared. The date the arctic recovers this year will set a lower boundary for the date  the arctic sea ice will start growing after a blue ocean event. If it does not show a recovery this year, then I don't expect arctic sea ice will return in my lifetime


To me that means that arctic air temperatures maybe 20c or 30c  above average, perhaps more. Because of all the heat of the Northern Hemisphere tries to go to the arctic, but the arctic will be very warm, heat transfer will be less efficient.  But the heat must be transferred, so it will go into places that it doesn't usually go.   

More of it will go out into space, somehow, but not likely enough to reverse course. That the atmosphere is richer than average in greenhouse gasses does not help.

More of it will go into melting Greenland and any remaining glaciers in the NH. This will likely cause epic floods in vulnerable areas, as melt rates accelerate. In the long term, places dependent on glaciers for water will face water shortages. 

More of the heat will go into the oceans, accelerating sea level rise by virtue of thermal expansion, and causing an acceleration of the extinction rate. Vulnerable cities will be partially or completely submerged for weeks or months.  Because of the warmer ocean we might see new atmospheric phenomena like cat 6 hurricanes or perhaps temporary eyes, like in Jupiter.

The heat will also manifest on land. While there is snow left on the NH,  snow melt will start sooner than ever, amplifying the heat and setting up forests for disease, drought and eventually fire. Forests become CO2 sources instead of sinks. Places dependent on snow melt for water, will face water shortages.

Heat also goes into melting permafrost. CO2 emissions accelerate even more.

The mid and lower NH should experience long spells of extreme heat waves, but also spells of extreme rainfall due to the acceleration of the water cycle.  Places will get stuck in unusual or extreme weather patterns for months.

The interface between the SH and NH winds should change significantly. 

To be clear, I think this will all happen the same year, over the course of the year. 
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 04:16:30 PM »
It's the scale of the processes involved that I find mind-boggling. We glibly talk about areas of sea ice that would cover many countries, and amounts of heat that could boil seas dry.
There are potentially huge disasters awaiting us as the climate system gets further and further out of balance.

And always the first question I ever get asked if I raise the subject is "When will it start happening?". I think the first time I know we're in trouble is when people start replying "Yeh, I thought it was getting a bit odd".

It's the boiling frog writ large.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 04:23:32 PM »
To be clear, I think this will all happen the same year, over the course of the year.

That all sounds about right from what I've read. I'm not sure I agree about being a single year though. I'm expecting a ramp up effects over several years.

I find it hard to foresee one single event that indicates that life will never be the same again. The only thing close is a Blue-Arctic-Event, and although that will have massive knock on effects, it won't directly be seen as a catastrophe the way that a flooded New York or London would.

There never will be a wake up event, just a series of 'things to live through'.

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 05:15:44 PM »
Quote
It's the boiling frog writ large.

it will be interesting to see what "thee event" will be that finally causes shit to hit the fan.

What will it be?  Will it be something short of a "blue ocean event"....ie a significant decline of the Arctic ice (say a 25% drop below the record level)?

Will it be another incredible run of "record high temperatures" like we had in the spring of 2012?

Will it be a huge melting event of a week or so on Greenland?

Or will it just be a continuous pounding of weather "events" (like those above) that slowly pushes policy makers to say...."OK...enough."

Keep in mind that policy makers are ALWAYS the last to move.  The markets are already moving....more and more solar....more and more wind.  Walmart and Target aren't putting solar up because they like the environment:  They are putting them up because they want to save money in the long run.  So the markets have already been moving.

The Saudi IPO is coming sometime in 2017 (they are selling about 10% of their "entity" via an Initial Public Offering).  So markets understand what is happening....long before policy makers will move significantly.



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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 05:39:28 PM »
I'm not sure I agree about being a single year though. I'm expecting a ramp up effects over several years.

I think the ramp up could have already begun, but it is too early to call. There is a whole lot of winter left. I think the year the arctic is ice free will be spectacularly bad in terms of everything I mentioned before. Truly unearthly. It will be clear to all that the climate changed. It will not be instant extinction, but human population will be lowered by more than a few percentage points if we don't go to war and more than decimated if we do. In my mind, those are the conservative numbers.

Quote
There never will be a wake up event, just a series of 'things to live through'.

I like that and agree that will be the point of view of the individuals. I think that is happening right now.  Many people can already perceive that there is something different with climate but it still within the extreme of the normal parameter. The year of the first blue ocean event will flip that. The events many people will experience will be truly unearthly. I mean entire cities killed by heatwaves.  Global sea level rise of decimeters or more.  Local sea level rise in hot places, during high tide with some extreme pressure system could see a meter of SLR for weeks or even months. The smoke of forest fires will kill many and cities will be lost to fires (again).

After that year there will be no talk of climate change is a hoax. All dwindling resources will be focused on surviving. There will be no time for bullshit.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 06:00:02 PM by Archimid »
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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 06:50:52 PM »
On my first post, I wrote about what I think will be the immediate consequences of an ice free arctic, or Blue Ocean Event(BOE). Now I will write about what I think the long term consequences.

First, the arctic will probably become permanently ice free. The winter after the first BOE will be mostly ice free. Maybe at some point in December ice grows at ridiculous rates and if we get lucky it will close the arctic. But it will be too late. Come the melting season, the average thickness of the arctic will be less than 1M and it will be facing a planet already hotter than normal. It will completely melt much earlier than the first year, accumulating even more heat. This might repeat a couple of times at most, every time with later start of the freezing season and earlier full melt. Eventually ice will be a regional thing. Ice might form around the arctic islands or around the arctic coast in the middle of winter, but that's it. Once the Sun comes out what little ice is left will be gone in weeks.

As far as the rest of the planet, CO2 will grow exponentially. Permafrost, already thawing at ridiculously fast rates, will really speed up. So much so, that human emissions will be completely eclipsed and made insignificant. That the much warmer ocean will also lose the capacity to absorb CO2 will only make matters worse.

Most northern forests will burn during the spring, summer and fall after the BOE. That will dump a huge amount of CO2 into the atmosphere in the first year. But because forests can only burn once in a long time, the long term emissions by forest fires will diminish greatly. 

I wouldn't be surprised if 5 years after the first BOE  CO2 will rise well over 100 ppm. Maybe 200 or even 300.

The combination of very high amounts of CO2 and the change of the arctic from a planetary heat sink to a heat source could very easily warm the planet  a further 2C in just a few years.

A very large part of the world will become uninhabitable a few years after the first BOE. Heat waves that kill millions become the norm in land locked equatorial regions of the world. Northern regions will also experienced killer heatwaves, but not to the extremes of the equator. Heatwaves will be dreaded like tornadoes are today. Probably worse.

 1000 year floods will become annual floods in some regions. Rain will completely disappear in others. Some regions will get floods followed by such heat that drought conditions are in effect very soon after the rain is over.

Sea level rise, will be ridiculous.

All this will destroy the world economy and a significant number of the world's population. For those that survive, life will be quite different. No one will win from this. Not Donald Trump, not the Koch brothers, no Exxon CEO's or board of directors. No one. They gambled our lives that global warming would be good and they will lose. Quality of life for everyone on the planet will be worse across the board, regardless of how much wealth individuals have.
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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 06:54:05 PM »
If anyone knows GOOD consequences of an ice free arctic, please also post them here. I can not think of any. Also if anyone has good reasons to believe that the consequences of an ice free Arctic will be insignificant , please post them. I would love to be wrong about my rant.

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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 08:42:49 PM »
You asked for any positive results from a BOE.
Digging deep....my home in the heart of the coldest part of Canada will need less firewood to heat it.
My corn crop will be more than a vanity project.
Of course, in the aftermath of a civilization collapse, I'll have to do this with stone age tech.

Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2016, 09:40:28 PM »
Thank you Sebastian. You are right. Many people  in Canada and Siberia will indeed need less heating most of the time, but at minority of times they will be some really cold spells. This should definitely make for savings in heating. There should also be a significant reduction in cold related injuries and deaths. Also more time to be outside without freezing to death.

 About the corn being more productive,  maybe. Where do you get your water from? If its from a lake, or aquifers you should be good. If its from snow pack melt, then you should make provisions. Not that there will be no snow. If you live north enough it is almost guaranteed to get at least some snow during winter.  More likely you'll get more snow than ever during fall and winter, with most of it melting much earlier than usual come spring.

 As long as you survive the first wave of forests fires, and no american refugee moves to your neighborhood and try to take your stuff, you and people in your situation might be ok.

Perhaps you should lobby your government to build a wall on the border with the US. You wouldn't want American refugees, fleeing drought, heat waves and SLR, to come in and take your stuff.

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DoomInTheUK

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 09:38:38 AM »
Good luck with the corn Sebastian, but remember that the growing season will shift as you go North. The corn has evolved around the day length of the mid latitudes. It won't do as well with too much dark in the far North.
A changed climate may seem like a good place to grow crops, but it also takes good soil, water, and light. They're not so much in evidence in the higher latitudes.

I tentatively agree with you Archimid, but I suspect those changes will be within a few years (say 3-7) of a BOE rather than almost immediately.

The worry is that we won't have to wait too long to see which one of us is closer to the truth!

etienne

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 05:15:58 PM »
Hello,

I don't believe in catastrophical events. Like discussed in the wrong topic with Archimid, I believe that climate change will be a slow worsening of our living condition. One Sandy storm here, one city under seawater there, floods overthere, drough in other places... I don't believe in apocaliptic events. Even when Jerusalem has falen in front of Babylon, many people could stay in town. What worries me more is the social impact of these events. Some historians say that the French revolution was due to a small ice age, other say that the Syrian war is the first war related to climate change. Humans are often better than nature in creating catastrophies. It takes years to build a house, but just 5 minutes to break the windows. There is a blog : http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.lu/ that talks a lot of that Seneca cliff, the idea that the way down is faster than the way up.

Best regards,

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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2016, 06:56:52 PM »
Etienne: Thanks for moving the discussion here.

According to: http://www.dictionary.com/browse/catastrophe
Quote
Catastrophe:
1. a sudden and widespread disaster:
the catastrophe of war.

2. any misfortune, mishap, or failure; fiasco:
The play was so poor our whole evening was a catastrophe.

3. a final event or conclusion, usually an unfortunate one; a disastrous end:
the great catastrophe of the Old South at Appomattox.

4. (in a drama) the point at which the circumstances overcome the central motive, introducing the close or conclusion; dénouement.
Compare catastasis, epitasis, protasis.

5. Geology. a sudden, violent disturbance, especially of a part of the surface of the earth; cataclysm.

6. Also called catastrophe function. Mathematics. any of the mathematical functions that describe the discontinuities that are treated in catastrophe theory.


I believe a BOE will be a global catastrophe in terms of definition 1,3,5 and 6, if six is what I think it is.

Number 5 is particularly interesting. 3% of the planet surface going from from a continent of ice to an open ocean in a few years will meet the literal definition.

I think that local catastrophes happen every so often. That's simply part of life on earth. But if many local catastrophes start happening around the same time, then it becomes a global catastrophe. That is exactly the problem with climate change. It increases the occurrence of catastrophes. BUt more catastrophes do not mean global catastrophe. There is a buffer. After catastrophe, there is recovery.

  What makes the catastrophe global is too many local catastrophe with no time for recovery. After the first BOE, that is exactly what will happen. Too many local catastrophe, too often.

Global catastrophes followed by mass extinctions have happened many times, just not during the last few thousand years. It is very easy to come to believe  that it is impossible, but from a geological point of view is perfectly is normal.

We are much better prepared to adapt to climate change than any other homo sapiens ever.  That's why I believe that this can be survived by many billions. For as long as we don't go to war. Our capacity to adapt is not my worry.

My worry is the axium “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”

As we speak  a presidential candidate to the US claims that climate change is a hoax and that he will stop paying the UN for climate change. Putin is savoring a time when he is remembered as the man who brought warmth to mother Russia. He thinks that a whole new coast will open to do trade, business and possibly war. Why would they prepare? Humanity is awfully unprepared for abrupt climate change.  In turn, the cure will be very expensive. Probably too expensive.



 
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magnamentis

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2016, 08:15:54 PM »
cataclysm :-) attached you find a nice bootanimation for android devices.

past the zip into: root > system > media and rename it to "bootanimation.zip after you rename the original there into something else like orig-bootanimation.zip and once that is done you can give that new animation the right permissions that should read: 0644 or -rw-r--r-- depending on your file browser.

2 pics out of the animation to give a clue are attached as well, just for those who like fancy stuff like this to personalize their mobile device. there is more to have here of course :-) before retirement it was once my job to develop software for macs and android phones :-)

of course you'd have to download the file with the .txt extension which in reality is a .zip file but renamed to make it uploadable. else pm for the original unaltered variant and yes, you need a rooted device :D

Buddy

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2016, 08:55:15 PM »
Quote
I don't believe in catastrophical events. Like discussed in the wrong topic with Archimid, I believe that climate change will be a slow worsening of our living condition. One Sandy storm here, one city under seawater there, floods overthere, drough in other places... I don't believe in apocaliptic events.

The catastrophic events are LOCAL and/or REGIONAL.  Some people are certainly "getting used" to them....or they aren't close enough to them to really care or understand.  Others....like most on this site.....look for the FACTS of what is actually happening....and KNOW that the light in the tunnel is a train, and its coming right at them.

But I can't help but think the world is moving more quickly towards "bad shit" (a technical scientific term) that is going to continue to get worse.....ESPECIALLY as a BOE moves much closer to reality.

What continues to befuddle me.....is the number of people who CLEARLY know that it is happening....but are paid to look the other way.  In addition....there are a throng of "lemmings" willing to either "look the other way".....or just not look at all. 

I have a neighbor who just ignores facts when presented to him.  it truly is astonishing.  You could show him a Donald Trump video clip and he just brushes it off.  I used to wonder how in the WORLD Hitler ever got as far as he did.  I guess I am now finding out how it is done....

Incredible.
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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2016, 12:09:31 PM »
Some nitpicks

Quote
is the number of people who CLEARLY know that it is happening....

To this I would argue that no one alive clearly know what is happening. Those with advanced degrees in climate science have a very good idea, but there are too many interacting climate systems for any one person to know them all. BUt what percentage of the population have advanced science degrees? A very small percentage.  Even among politicians and decision makers, lack of knowledge is the norm. 95% of the people, by virtue of lack of education, are oblivious to the danger and must trust what scientists/politicians say. 

Quote
but are paid to look the other way.

I think that is a very small group. A small team of well coordinated professional deniers can have a global impact and they have. They take advantage of the lack of knowledge and aversion to even think about catastrophic risk of people and exploit it.   

Quote
In addition....there are a throng of "lemmings" willing to either "look the other way".....or just not look at all.

This is a natural response. Believing that a catastrophe is near but you can't do anything about it is horrible for mental health. People that value their mental health will quickly tune out as a safety measure. That includes everyone from politicians to climate scientists. And that's actually a good thing. Many of those scientist wouldn't be able to perform their work if their minds were preoccupied by the end of everything they love.

That's the psychology that fossil fuel interests exploit masterfully. Of course they are nothing but fools. Climate change will destroy much of whatever it is they love, whether they believe  it or not.   But they convinced themselves that a warmer planet will be good. Which is true, it it happened over 1000 years, not a 100.

 

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 12:29:52 PM »
"That's the psychology that fossil fuel interests exploit masterfully. Of course they are nothing but fools. Climate change will destroy much of whatever it is they love, whether they believe  it or not.  "

But fossil-death-fuel 'interest' are corporations, and corporations don't 'love' anything except short term profits. We have created very powerful monsters in international corporations, and they are rapidly destroying the living planet.


"But they convinced themselves that a warmer planet will be good. Which is true, [if] it happened over 1000 years, not a 100."

Now you are spouting a slight variation on a tired denialist meme. Do you really want to trot such garbage out here?

Yes, the extremely high rate of change is really bad and makes the consequences of GW much worse for us and for other living things and the systems that support them.

But even slow GW to levels not seen since before humans evolved are likely to be not-the-greates-thing for humans, don't you think? And we are soon to be moving into and beyond those temperatures. Read the middle and later chapters of Mark Lynas' Six Degrees if you need a refresher on the horrific consequences of temperatures 3 degrees and more above pre-industrial levels.

But perhaps I am misunderstanding something in your position here? If so, please elucidate.

And on the psychological front, clearly neven and many posters here have a pretty clear grasp on the astonishing depth and dire nature of the catastrophes coming our way, yet somehow they still manage to function pretty darn effectively. I do think that people have the fear that they will totally freeze if confronted by hard facts, but the real fear is of the pain involved and of the hard work they may have to do to reexamine prized assumptions and core beliefs.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2016, 12:43:23 PM by wili »
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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2016, 12:46:55 PM »
Quote
Now you are spouting a slight variation on a tired denialist meme. Do you really want to trot such garbage out here?

I think they are right that, in theory, a warmer planet is better. If over 1000 year the earth warmed 3C then we, and many species would adapt to it without noticing much. True that the equator would be mostly uninhabitable, but the earth largest land mass is to the north of the northern hemisphere. A great part of the surface of the planet that is now covered in snow and thick forests would be mostly grasslands.

The problem is the rate of change. 3C over 1000 year won't be noticeable. 3C over 100 years will be catastrophic. This is the mistake climate change deniers made. They know global warming is real. They have always known. They just thought that it will be a good thing. So they have to publicly deny it, or else people will get scared, but in private they are making preparations to monetize the changes. They are fools. Rich and powerful fools.

They work from the principle that humans are somehow apart and different from nature. They think our behavior is not dictated by the climate but by our own will. What an illusion. The only part that gives me solace is that those fools that thought climate change couldn't hurt them will experience the worst drop in quality of life.
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Archimid

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2016, 01:13:10 PM »
 
Quote
clearly neven and many posters here have a pretty clear grasp on the astonishing depth and dire nature of the catastrophes coming our way, yet somehow they still manage to function pretty darn effectively.

Of course! The hard part is only at first. Once you have gone through the stages of grief, then that same fear that paralyze  some, becomes strength! Fight or flight activates, you start taking action and  then things don't look so bad. I admire people like Neven, James Hansen or Michael Mann. They faced a future danger and instead of looking the other way like most, they made a stand. They have paid for it dearly but they keep going. And they will keep going because theirs is a fight for survival.
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johnm33

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 06:45:25 PM »
When the BOE occurs all the fresh water from siberian and american artic rivers will flow effortlessly through the CAA. Joining all the melt from Greenland further south. These waters will slow down the NAD holding it further south and deeper. The surface of the northern waters being colder, gain instead of losing heat and the southern waters gain heat and increase in salinity, both waters arrive slower and later into the year. Winds rapidly erode the coastal permafrost and the Arctic seas begin a long journey south, as both erosion and melt eliminate areas of permafrost,  and being much darker gain more heat in the long Arctic day. Tidal forces and rainfall rapidly disolve the ice of north-east Greenland heralding an era of increasingly rapid SLR. Thus the amount of Arctic waters recycling on a short timeline accelerates. The begginings of these processes are already in place.
 The warmer Arctic ocean leads to a great increase in evaporation and cloud leading to a collapse of the temp. gradient to the equator and the Hadley/Ferrel/Polar system. A single cell system try's to become established but is constantly disrupted by emerging 'cold poles'. Nevertheless almost all the winds that drive our present climate are permanently disrupted and many of the forcings which agriculture relies on cease, new patterns attempt to establish but so many things are in a state of flux that just isn't possible.
 Influx of tidal waters on Greenland dissolve massive surface deposits of salt leading to the creation of a hidden inland sea easing the ice from the bedrock over vast areas.
 Cities close to sea level and subject to tides are increasingly threatened, yet no-one is able to quite grasp the reality, it takes only one huge tide to flood the underdround/subway for people everywhere to grasp that all these cities will be abandoned, almost simultaneously the threatened cities see property prices collapse.   
Due to the increased evaporation snowfall increases in Asia as far south as Tibet, the Gobi begins to bloom and the Aral sea begins to grow. Rainfall becomes a common event in the Sahara and it starts to shrink, as do the deserts of the south.

bbr2314

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2016, 08:43:18 PM »
When the BOE occurs all the fresh water from siberian and american artic rivers will flow effortlessly through the CAA. Joining all the melt from Greenland further south. These waters will slow down the NAD holding it further south and deeper. The surface of the northern waters being colder, gain instead of losing heat and the southern waters gain heat and increase in salinity, both waters arrive slower and later into the year. Winds rapidly erode the coastal permafrost and the Arctic seas begin a long journey south, as both erosion and melt eliminate areas of permafrost,  and being much darker gain more heat in the long Arctic day. Tidal forces and rainfall rapidly disolve the ice of north-east Greenland heralding an era of increasingly rapid SLR. Thus the amount of Arctic waters recycling on a short timeline accelerates. The begginings of these processes are already in place.
 The warmer Arctic ocean leads to a great increase in evaporation and cloud leading to a collapse of the temp. gradient to the equator and the Hadley/Ferrel/Polar system. A single cell system try's to become established but is constantly disrupted by emerging 'cold poles'. Nevertheless almost all the winds that drive our present climate are permanently disrupted and many of the forcings which agriculture relies on cease, new patterns attempt to establish but so many things are in a state of flux that just isn't possible.
 Influx of tidal waters on Greenland dissolve massive surface deposits of salt leading to the creation of a hidden inland sea easing the ice from the bedrock over vast areas.
 Cities close to sea level and subject to tides are increasingly threatened, yet no-one is able to quite grasp the reality, it takes only one huge tide to flood the underdround/subway for people everywhere to grasp that all these cities will be abandoned, almost simultaneously the threatened cities see property prices collapse.   
Due to the increased evaporation snowfall increases in Asia as far south as Tibet, the Gobi begins to bloom and the Aral sea begins to grow. Rainfall becomes a common event in the Sahara and it starts to shrink, as do the deserts of the south.
i think the collapse of the existing three-cell system also allows Greenland airmasses to plunge into the Sahara, another reason it is already starting to green again... you hit the nail on the head IMO of what is ongoing/about to happen.

wili

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2016, 10:38:38 PM »
Arch wrote: "...a warmer planet is better..."

There are always going to be some winners and losers, but mostly as the earth warms the main winners will be thermophilic microbes.

I will recommend again to you Mark Lynas's Six Degrees, though as a way to educate yourself, if you a actually interested in learning what is actually likely to happen, given paleo-data in particular.

Here are some highlights from "3 degree" chapter (these are all backed up by scientific papers):

• 10 to 20 % drop in rainfall in Africa
• further drying and expansion of Kalahari Desert
• regular Super El Ninos, possibly going to permanent El Nino conditions
• drying out and destruction of the Amazon rain forest, home to massive bio-diversity
• carbon feedbacks from loss of such forest and other carbon sources driving GW further
• drying out of the now wet areas of Australia
• hurricanes and typhoons stronger than any experienced now
• thawed Arctic, but it will not provide new areas for much ag
• Central America, home to much diversity, dries out (already happening)
• life-giving regular monsoons become much more erratic and uncertain
• failure of major Asian rivers originating in the Himalayas (similar patterns elsewhere)
• and generally much more extreme rainfall events and droughts, tending to destabilize plant life upon which all other terrestrial life depends

And those are leaving off extreme increases in sea level, and more and more places becoming simply unlivably hot has wet bulb temperatures in more and more places exceed livable limits (35 C wbt) for longer and longer periods--temperatures not just lethal to humans but to many other species...

Lots of other bad things happen before and after you get to 3 degrees, and of course we are not likely to stop there.

If you have sources for your pet claim that a three degree warmer world will be just wonderful for everything, please do provide them!
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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2016, 02:33:02 AM »

There are always going to be some winners and losers, but mostly as the earth warms the main winners will be thermophilic microbes.


That depends on the rate of change  more than on temperature.

 If the world warms 3C over 1000 years it wouldn't be noticeable by humans during their lifetimes. Cities will fall and rise as they did during the last 1000 years. People will slowly migrate to the north and south and the equator becomes uninhabitable by humans during summer. No catastrophic global destruction because there is time for replacement after local catastrophes. Many species go extinct, but they are replaced.

If the world warms 3C over the next 100 year things start to get really bad, as you very well described.  Many humans will adapt and some may even thrive, but the replacement rate will be to slow to allow human population to stay the same size. It will shrink considerably. Many species will also go extinct without replacement.

If the world warms 3C over the next 10 years then it is total destruction. 99.9 percent of the world population will be gone on the disorder that ensues. Most other large species too, including trees.

I don't think a BOE is enough to get us to 3C in ten years, specially with greenland and antartica ice cooling the oceans. More like 1.5 or 2 in ten years for what I have seen. That will be very bad, but not because it is 1.5 or 2 degrees. It will be very bad because the climate will change faster than too many humans and large animals can adapt.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2016, 05:32:27 PM »
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0531.1

A look at low ice impacts on both phases of the AMO.
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prokaryotes

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #26 on: July 26, 2020, 06:50:42 PM »
From a 2014 NCAR press release

Quote
The team found that during episodes of rapid sea-ice loss, the rate of Arctic land warming is 3.5 times greater than the average 21st century warming rates predicted in global climate models. While this warming is largest over the ocean, the simulations suggest that it can penetrate as far as 900 miles inland. The simulations also indicate that the warming acceleration during such events is especially pronounced in autumn. The decade during which a rapid sea-ice loss event occurs could see autumn temperatures warm by as much as 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) along the Arctic coasts of Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

Lawrence and his colleagues then used the model to study the influence of accelerated warming on permafrost and found that in areas where permafrost is already at risk, such as central Alaska, a period of abrupt sea-ice loss could lead to rapid soil thaw. This situation, when summer thaw extends more deeply than the next winter’s freeze, can lead to a talik, which is a layer of permanently unfrozen soil sandwiched between the seasonally frozen layer above and the perennially frozen layer below. A talik allows heat to build more quickly in the soil, hastening the long-term thaw of permafrost.

Recent warming has degraded large sections of permafrost, with pockets of soil collapsing as the ice within it melts. The results include buckled highways, destabilized houses, and “drunken forests” of trees that lean at wild angles.

“An important unresolved question is how the delicate balance of life in the Arctic will respond to such a rapid warming,” Lawrence says. “Will we see, for example, accelerated coastal erosion, or increased methane emissions, or faster shrub encroachment into tundra regions if sea ice continues to retreat rapidly?”
http://climatestate.com/2014/07/25/rapid-sea-ice-loss-may-increase-the-rate-of-arctic-land-warming-by-3-5-times-affecting-permafrost/
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Juan C. García

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #27 on: July 26, 2020, 07:47:48 PM »
There is talk of a Gompertz curve in the loss of Arctic sea ice. I think we are now approaching the end of the curve in the ASI volume lost. There will be a start for other Gompertz curves on various tracks (by example, the melting of the permafrost). I am particularly concerned about the acceleration that we will surely have in rising sea levels.

It has been absurd to focus the UN reactions and scientific studies on 2100, 2200 or longer periods. We cannot lose the coastal cities and we are seeing that is happening right now. So, finally we will see reactions from governments and also from private companies. I know: the human's reaction should be 50 years ago, but we will have it in 2020-2030. I hope this reaction will be strong, so I wonder what will happen in the next ten years. On the other hand, I also know that there are already several damages generated.

So, we know the problems that we will face. But the "Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice" is finally looking for solutions. We do not know the solutions that we can implement in a decade. Let's wait and see.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 08:03:15 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« Reply #28 on: July 26, 2020, 08:37:00 PM »
From a 2014 NCAR press release

Quote
The team found that during episodes of rapid sea-ice loss, the rate of Arctic land warming is 3.5 times greater than the average 21st century warming rates predicted in global climate models. While this warming is largest over the ocean, the simulations suggest that it can penetrate as far as 900 miles inland. The simulations also indicate that the warming acceleration during such events is especially pronounced in autumn. The decade during which a rapid sea-ice loss event occurs could see autumn temperatures warm by as much as 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) along the Arctic coasts of Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

Lawrence and his colleagues then used the model to study the influence of accelerated warming on permafrost and found that in areas where permafrost is already at risk, such as central Alaska, a period of abrupt sea-ice loss could lead to rapid soil thaw. This situation, when summer thaw extends more deeply than the next winter’s freeze, can lead to a talik, which is a layer of permanently unfrozen soil sandwiched between the seasonally frozen layer above and the perennially frozen layer below. A talik allows heat to build more quickly in the soil, hastening the long-term thaw of permafrost.

Recent warming has degraded large sections of permafrost, with pockets of soil collapsing as the ice within it melts. The results include buckled highways, destabilized houses, and “drunken forests” of trees that lean at wild angles.

“An important unresolved question is how the delicate balance of life in the Arctic will respond to such a rapid warming,” Lawrence says. “Will we see, for example, accelerated coastal erosion, or increased methane emissions, or faster shrub encroachment into tundra regions if sea ice continues to retreat rapidly?”
http://climatestate.com/2014/07/25/rapid-sea-ice-loss-may-increase-the-rate-of-arctic-land-warming-by-3-5-times-affecting-permafrost/


Thanks, some users here refuse to accept that a BOE will be a game changer, there have been ongoing discussions for years now even though it's very obvious that without the "Freezer" we shall see a jump in temps that will have a significant impact on AT LEAST the entire northern hemisphere and eventually on greenland melt speed.
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