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FishOutofWater

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On November 16, temperatures over the Arctic ocean were as much as 50 degrees F (30 Celsius) above normal.

Image credit Tropicaltidbits.com
It was above freezing in places that are normally below -25 Celsius (15 to 20 below zero in degrees F). Arctic sea ice collapse on the Atlantic side has allowed warm storms to penetrate the central Arctic. This extreme heat is destabilizing the northern hemisphere's atmospheric circulation all the way up to the top of the stratosphere.

Arctic sea ice extent, area and volume has collapsed to record low levels for November as warm Atlantic ocean water has pushed into Arctic seas that used to be ice covered. Sea ice cover is also low on the Pacific side.


image credit: JAXA VISHOP
The Arctic was at Record low sea ice extent for November 16. Warm Atlantic water has replaced ice in the Eurasian Arctic seas. Yellow and orange colored lines shows average sea ice extent in the 80's and 90's respectively. The warm water is disturbing the northern hemisphere’s atmospheric circulation.

The warm Arctic sea water has allowed warm storms to inject huge amounts of heat over the north pole raising surface temperatures to above freezing in areas that are normally twenty degrees below zero Fahrenheit. Temperatures on November 16 were as much as 30 Celsius (50ºF) above normal near the pole.

Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Warm water has penetrated deep into Arctic seas that used to be covered by ice.

But that’s not all. The  lack of sea ice has dramatically affected the northern hemisphere’s atmospheric circulation for months. The heat this fall has formed a warm dome over the Arctic ocean and provided moisture for deep, early Siberian snow. A record deep Siberian snow pack for October pushed south of normal developing a deep pool of cold air over central Siberia.




The much larger than normal temperature contrasts (gradients) across Central Eurasia have intensified the polar jet stream across Asia and the north Pacific Ocean. This is a climate model predicted consequence of intense early snowfall in Siberia associated with warm water entering the Arctic seas. This fall has had all time record minimum sea ice extent in the seas north of Eurasia and this unprecedented weather pattern is the atmospheric response to these warm waters so deep into the Arctic.

image credit:NOAA/ESRL
Warm water in Eurasian Arctic seas normally covered by ice has perturbed the atmospheric circulation. A dome of warm air has risen up over the warm water pushing moisture, snow, and the jet stream south over Siberia. Siberian air has been driven out over the north Pacific causing intense storms, cooling the waters of the far north Pacific, entrenching the jet stream pattern for the coming winter.

Intense atmospheric waves, associated with intense storms have whipped across both the Pacific and Atlantic. When intense storms approached the Arctic from both the Pacific and Atlantic in late October the stratospheric polar vortex was pinched from both sides, a 2 wave pattern, and split in two.
image credit: Dr Judah Cohen AER corporation
Intense atmospheric waves broke into the stratosphere from the lower atmosphere in late October, splitting the stratospheric polar vortex in two, in an unprecedented event so early in the winter season
This stratospheric polar vortex split is unprecedented for so early in the Arctic winter season as far as I know. The stratospheric polar vortex is now unstable and may undergo a major midwinter warming in the next ten days. It may be the earliest major midwinter warming ever seen.

image credit: Free Univ. of Berlin
The European, ECMWF, model predicted a major midwinter warming of the stratosphere for November 25. This may be the earliest major midwinter stratospheric warming ever observed.
Stratospheric warming events are primarily driven by wave number 1. The polar jet stream, pushed further south than normal by the very cold Siberian air, combines over the western Pacific with the subtropical jet stream driven by strong tropical convection in the Indian ocean, Indonesia, and the west Pacific. This extremely intense jet stream drives a planetary scale wave number 1 that breaks in the stratosphere. The breaking wave slows and displaces the polar night jet in the stratosphere. Intense heating of the stratosphere is now taking place as a result of intense wave number 1 activity.

There may be a silver lining in this disturbing news. The strong jet stream that is locking in across the Pacific because of the cold pool that has formed under the Aleutians in response to the repeated intense cold storms is breaking down the La Niña weather pattern that would have extended the drought in California. An intense jet stream across the Pacific usually brings heavy mid-winter rains to California and the Pacific northwest.

Please note that I am a geochemist who has been involved in climate research related to nuclear waste disposal safety assessment but I am not an expert in atmospheric sciences. Because stratospheric processes involve very complex physics I must carefully review the work of experts to insure my writing is based on science, not my pet theories. In the process of reviewing recent research to support my writing I discovered the pioneering work of Dr. Judah Cohen at AER corporation. His recent blog post on the Arctic oscillation www.aer.com/… confirmed my observations and went much deeper into the subject than I can.

Much of his post is highly technical but here is the good news that rains might come to California despite NOAA’s forecast of a weak La Niña, a pattern that usually is associated with dry weather in California.

SSTs/El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to be weakly cooler than average (Figure 14) and most winter ENSO forecasts are for weak La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions favor a negative Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern that produces cold anomalies in the northwestern US and warm anomalies in the Southeastern US.   But the big story of late has been the rapidly cooling SSTs across the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific.  These cool waters seem to be a result of the very cold temperatures that developed across Siberia this October.  The cold air across Siberia both being advected out across the North Pacific and strengthening the westerlies across the North Pacific have dramatically cooled SSTs in the North Pacific.  This seems analogous to the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 when cold temperatures in Canada cooled North Atlantic SSTS and strengthened the Jet Stream to record speeds as it headed towards Europe.  This dramatic cooling of SSTs demonstrates we are more confident that the atmosphere forces SSTs than SSTs force the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes.  Warmer than normal SSTs to the north near Alaska and colder than normal SSTs across the mid-latitudes, could favor a southward shift the in the Jet Stream across the North Pacific this winter.  The cool waters across the mid-latitudes could help strengthen the Aleutians low further south opposite to what might be expected during La Niña.
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For those of you who are interested in the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation I recommend reading Dr. Cohen's post in its entirety.

The weak polar vortex could lead to intense cold air outbreaks over the northern hemisphere continents in midwinter. Cold air may soon push into western Europe in response to the sudden weakening of the tropospheric polar vortex that is taking place in the last ten days of November.

The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast of a warm winter across the southern states of the United States may be disrupted by intense cold outbreaks because the weak polar vortex will be unable to keep the cold air locked up in the northern climes. The Arctic ocean may experience unprecedented heat at the same time that brutal cold builds over Siberia. Where that brutally cold Siberian air goes will determine who gets the cold winter.


For whole my complete original post see:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/16/1600223/-Arctic-Sea-Ice-Collapse-Has-Destabilized-the-Stratospheric-Lower-Atmospheric-Circulations
« Last Edit: November 23, 2016, 07:48:30 PM by FishOutofWater »

magnamentis

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2016, 09:42:03 PM »
great resume @FishOutofWater, extremely useful and enlightening and well worth a big extra thanks.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2016, 11:38:44 PM »
Thanks, Magnamentis. I'm trying to figure out how to cross post to the forum because there's a completely different viewership here than over at dailykos. I don't have the tech skills of folks like A-Team but I have some skills in geology, geochemistry, paleoclimatology, geophysics  and weather. The weather stuff is a hobby that I've had since I was about 3 feet tall. The other things involved formal training and involvement in research.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2016, 11:59:32 PM »
Thanks FishOutofWater,

For me the most solid take away here is that an anomalously hot and ice free Barents-Kara provides moisture for heavy Eurasian snow fall, which in turn creates significantly higher Eurasian atmospheric pressure relative to arctic low(s).  This sets up a dipole pattern that whacks out the polar jet, ushering in more arctic invading low pressure systems, which further sustain or amplify the dipole.

I think we may have identified the most troubling thing about Eurasian snow.  It helps pull open the door on one (of two) of our spaceship earth's vital refrigerating plants.  :o

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2016, 12:28:47 AM »
A very big thanks from me F.O.O.W. !!! I've been wrestling , across a number of forums, with what I am seeing and both what it means but what is the logical conclusion.

Being a 'Weather Nut' you'll be no stranger to the model threads? Try and tell the folk in there that  their models are trying to model something not in their programming........

The Skewed Jet may mean that SSW's cannot occur as any shots into the strat will be to the side of the Polar vortex and not a full on hit? Should this become entrenched with Lake effect snow clothing Siberia early every year then we have a bigger issue than we thought?
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2016, 12:54:18 AM »
Ok, now I've posted the second half of the story I wrote at DailyKos with some updates and a little more technical information.

Note that the ultra-intense Beaufort high last spring followed the abrupt end warming of a very cold polar vortex that qualified as a sudden stratospheric warming. The potential temperature of stratospheric air is very hot so when it cools and subsides the radiation balance will affect the sea ice. A midwinter sudden stratospheric warming may involve a huge amount of heat radiated to space but in the sunlight of spring less net heat is radiated to space from a stratospheric warming event. Thus the SSW in the spring may have amplified sea ice loss in the Beaufort in April and May 2016.


FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2016, 01:08:32 AM »
Ice Shieldz: It's actually a tripole pattern: warm Arctic ocean/cold Siberia/warm south Asia.

The warm south Asia and nearby subtropical and tropical oceans part of the tripole drive the heat into the upper atmosphere by means of an intensified jet stream.

magnamentis

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2016, 01:16:17 AM »
Thanks, Magnamentis. I'm trying to figure out how to cross post to the forum because there's a completely different viewership here than over at dailykos. I don't have the tech skills of folks like A-Team but I have some skills in geology, geochemistry, paleoclimatology, geophysics  and weather. The weather stuff is a hobby that I've had since I was about 3 feet tall. The other things involved formal training and involvement in research.

did you consider to just cross link as you did already, that could well do and opens for new members and followers vice versa?

FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2016, 02:34:02 AM »
These are my first posts here that aren't comments. Folks at DK have moved on to other topics. Straight politics has pretty much consumed DK. Next time I write about sea ice I will X-post. I really wasn't sure what would happen with images here and I still don't know how other folks manage to post such amazing imagery.

Most of us in the Dailykos community are in shock over the election.

oren

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2016, 09:18:29 AM »
FOOW thanks for a great post. My atmospheric knowledge is minimal so can't comment much, but it's definitely interesting.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2016, 12:20:53 AM »
Thanks. I have been looking at the stratosphere for the past several years and reading many papers on it but the physics of how energy is transferred into the stratosphere is beyond my training in geophysics. Thus, I read the papers and look at what's happening but I lack confidence in my interpretations of the data.

I've been looking at tropospheric weather model output for 40 years so I'm very comfortable with weather maps  at all levels of the troposphere.

The huge melt in the Beaufort last spring was influenced by an early sudden end warming of the stratosphere. I haven't written about it but it had much to do with the extreme early melting in the Beaufort sea.

The sudden end warming in the attached figure happens in March and the extreme Beaufort high is enhanced by stratospheric subsidence and wave dynamics in April and May. This drove the early Beaufort melt and enhanced uptake of solar energy.


Okono

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2016, 03:44:29 AM »
The much larger than normal temperature contrasts (gradients) across Central Eurasia have intensified the polar jet stream across Asia and the north Pacific Ocean.

Did you have some data to present alongside this?  Unless I'm misreading something badly, it seems like the opposite of what the data show.

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/Wind_Anomaly.html?P=300

I'm not sure why it's so hard to reach any kind of consensus regarding these broad circulation patterns, but it seems like people are searching for absolute truths amidst a big pile of anomalies.  I'm more wary of people who claim a uniform, understood response...

https://robertscribbler.com/2014/01/27/polar-vortex-ripped-in-half-by-anomalous-jet-stream-high-arctic-experiencing-32-degree-f-above-average-temperatures-over-broad-region/

... than people who say "I have no clue" at this point.

Research appears to be all over the place on this one.  Francis is obviously a big part of the literature, but so too are people trashing the ideas.

I'd like to second the vote for separating politics and climate science.  If you consider Trump worrisome, you should consider that to be particularly important now.

edit #2: I want to clarify that I don't think you're wrong.  I think we remain in the "not even wrong" state here.  There's just far too little data available to back any of these hypotheses yet.

With some things, there are very clear implications and consensus.  For other claims, like suggesting that there is no such thing as a polar cell anymore(not you, but a claim that appears often here to minimal challenge), I think a little more data is in order.

All I ask for here is consistent reasoning and accounting for as much data as we've got.

edit #1: i dislike politics
« Last Edit: November 27, 2016, 06:07:23 AM by Okono »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2016, 01:07:58 PM »
Well over Antarctica the early collapse of the P.V. has allowed the joint earliest Noctilucent season to begin

http://www.spaceweather.com/

There is some link with warming and these high altitude clouds so the collapse of Antarctic Sea ice may well have allowed the early collapse of the P.V. ( final warming) and so the early appearance of the clouds?
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2016, 07:35:49 PM »
Here's is NOAA's map of means and anomalies for the past 30 days at 250mb - jet stream level. Note the stronger than normal jet stream coming off of Asia, blowing across the western Pacific. Note also that the polar cell has been disrupted in northern Siberia. There's a huge easterly wind anomaly in northern Siberia.

Words can be very confusing. That's why we need to explain ourselves using very specific images. Journalists repeatedly fail to convey the science of climate change because they fail to use the images necessary to show what's happening. The figure below is a great example of why we get confused using only words because there are both easterly and westerly wind anomalies at 250 mb over Siberia. It's the result of the tripole pattern with colder than normal air over central Siberia, while the Arctic is warm and the seas south of the Asian continent are warm. The standard explanation of a warmer arctic weakening the thermal gradient, thus weakening the jet stream, does not apply to what is actually happening now.

Okono

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2016, 08:38:10 PM »
Here's is NOAA's map of means and anomalies for the past 30 days at 250mb - jet stream level.

The mean is strong, yes.  The anomaly appears, again, backwards.  I used 300mb because it's winter, but it's close enough either way.

I went here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/histdata/

I entered:

Options Selected for plot
End date: 20161125
Variable: Vector Winds
Level: 250
Number of Days: 30
Type of plot: Anomaly
Projection: Custom
Labels: Color, shaded
Date submitted: 11/27/2016 at 12:33

I got the attached.  Am I failing to zoom in on arrows?
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Okono

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2016, 09:26:37 PM »
(What I personally see in the anomaly diagram, FWIW, appears to be wind patterns associated with unusually persistent ULL's where "the [hot] blob" and the blocking ridge had been:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean)

widely maligned for the drought here in California.

Now we have the cold blob, so this would not shock me.)
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2016, 11:23:39 PM »
You got the same anomaly pattern as I showed but at a more detailed level. The velocity of the jet stream is stronger than normal and it's in the normal westerly direction across the north Pacific but there's ridging near the dateline that pushes the jet stream north of its average position in the mid Pacific.

The winds on the Pacific side of the Arctic are highly anomalous.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2016, 05:15:40 PM »
In the process of reviewing recent research to support my writing I discovered the pioneering work of Dr. Judah Cohen at AER corporation.

FOoW -- Chris Reynolds has long been interested in Dr Cohen's work and corresponded with him occasionally to ask questions.  You might find some of Chris' posts of interest - he ran an entire series of related posts at the end of 2011, beginning of 2012 centered around Cohen's work.

Cold Winters: Siberian Snowfall
Cold Winters: Arctic Sea Ice
Cold Winters: The Snow Advance Index
Cold Winters: The Arctic Connection
Dr Jennifer Francis on Arctic weather impacts
Cold Winters: From Theory into Practice?

A site search of Chris' Dosbat blog and 'Cohen'

Chris, like Neven, is on hiatus from his arctic blogging, but his posts often explore in detail some of the scientific papers and theories he found most pertinent.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #18 on: December 26, 2016, 10:16:19 PM »
Thanks. I have read Chris' blog some, but not regularly, so I didn't know he was taking time off. I try to keep up with Drs. Francis & Cohen, but I have my work cut out for me because I try to cover such a broad area of research from geophysics and oceanography to geochemistry and climate.  I cut back on my blogging because I need a life & because climate blogging gets depressing.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2017, 05:03:49 PM »
Thought I'd give this a bump so we don't tie up the freezing Thread.

Th P.V. has not spent much time looking/positioned as it used to be and now we are looking at a possible warming event at the end of Jan/start of Feb.

By Feb last year we were seeing extraordinary events across the Strat with an Ozone hole opening above the UK ( as gasses got shunted there and reacted with the sun) an Equatorial reversal that descended but then returned without reversing followed by the poles 'final warming' at the earliest date recorded.

We are a month earlier at present but isn't this what we'd expect if changes are occurring? Ever later P.V. formation with ever earlier final warming eventually removing the P.V. completely as we move toward a much warmer, wetter Arctic?

To me the removal of the winter P.V. would open up the basin to the weathers we see over summer when there is no Polar Vortex and this , from where I'm sitting, is exactly what is occurring with this 2016/17 winter being the worst yet with no let up in warmer Lat. invasions of the basin since October onward?

If QBO phase impacts everything from the MJO positioning to ENSO 'tweaks' then what is the lack of organised, strong P.V. having on the equatorial Strat? Is it what keeps QBO westerly? I've certainly seen the lopsided P.V. pushing winds ( at 10Hpa) down to the equator in a westerly direction so is a failing P.V. 'spinning up' the QBO in a westerly direction?

Was the failure of Nina ( B.O.M. measures) to establish due to this QBO 'stall'? would it be why a new Nino is now on the cards and what would that mean for the Arctic? Will that just turn into a feedback loop with a near permanent Nino keeping ice levels real low so driving WACCy weather which , in its turn, impacts P.V. formation and so reinforces QBO W'ly?
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2017, 07:06:39 PM »
Thanks Gray Wolf.  I think in a previous post, it was you who was talking about a potential collapse of the polar cell (merging with the ferrel cell?)  In addition to the possible indicators of a collapse that you mention now and before, it seems like the speed and zonal east-west direction of the stratospheric PV has not been translating down to changes in the polar jet like it used to?

I've certainly seen the lopsided P.V. pushing winds ( at 10Hpa) down to the equator in a westerly direction so is a failing P.V. 'spinning up' the QBO in a westerly direction?
I haven't heard of how the PV affects the QBO.  Is there any research about that connection?  In general, most meteorologists/climatologists focus on the causality or forcing originating more from the equator (esp. regarding the troposphere e.g. el nino ).   In terms of driving the changes we are seeing in our new climate regime, the arctic seems like the dominant mechanism now.  However, perhaps the best view is not to favor one over the other, but rather understand them as the single interconnected climate system that they are.  Yes we have much to learn!
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 03:20:01 AM by Ice Shieldz »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2017, 02:58:03 AM »
Thanks Gray Wolf.  I think in a previous post, it was you who was talking about a potential collapse of the polar cell (merging with the ferrel cell?)  In addition to the possible indicators of a collapse that you mention now and before, it seems like the speed and zonal east-west direction of the PV has not been translating to changes in the polar jet like it used to?

I've certainly seen the lopsided P.V. pushing winds ( at 10Hpa) down to the equator in a westerly direction so is a failing P.V. 'spinning up' the QBO in a westerly direction?
I haven't heard of how the PV affects the QBO.  Is there any research about that connection?  In general, most meteorologists/climatologists focus on the causality or forcing originating more from the equator (esp. regarding the troposphere e.g. el nino ).   In terms of driving the changes we are seeing in our new climate regime, the arctic seems like the dominant mechanism now.  However, perhaps the best view is not to favor one over the other, but rather understand them as the single interconnected climate system that they are.  Yes we have much to learn!

I must confess that I understand only about 10% of what is being discussed here but I am certain that a 2 cell atmospheric configuration is not stable. When the 3 cell circulation disappears, we will snap rapidly into a single cell circulation, upwelling at the equator and downwelling at the pole. Think of it as the disappearance of the Ferrel cell.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2017, 03:15:38 AM »
With upwelling at the equator and downwelling at the pole, only an odd number of cells is stable..... Unless u can think of a configuration that promotes upwelling at the pole...

FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2017, 03:47:01 AM »
At this time the 10mb vortex is colder than normal at in the center of the vortex but the vortex is displaced towards north America by an anomalous warm dome with clockwise spin over Europe. The dome is acting to stabilize the blocking high over Scandinavia which is allowing cold air to pour out of eastern Europe into Spain and France.

The displaced vortex is acting as a wave guide for tropospheric disturbances moving up from the Atlantic into the Arctic.

The upper figure shows the 10mb height level and temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and the bottom figure shows 250mb wind speeds and streamlines. You can see that the jet stream flow pattern over the Atlantic and Europe is reflective of the height field in the stratosphere at 10mb. The potential vorticity field in the stratosphere acts as a guide for tropospheric waves.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2017, 04:06:00 AM »
In about 10 days the blocking will shift to western north America and the stratospheric 10mb potential vorticity & flow pattern will guide tropospheric flow from the Pacific into the central Arctic.

The crazy weather reversals and flow patterns into the Arctic we have seen this winter tie into the reversals in the positions of  the squeezed cold polar vortex and the anticyclones in the high stratosphere.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2017, 04:15:23 AM »
Wow Fish very illuminating.  Thanks for the thoughtful and aptly illustrated explanations!

Man i'd love to see all of this as a 3D animation to really get altitudinal interactions. 8)
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 04:24:43 AM by Ice Shieldz »

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2017, 04:22:37 AM »
Hmmm... If the activation energy / external forcing required to transition to a single cell system is too high, then an unstably meandering (excited) three cell system is much more likely...

Similar to the energy levels in an atom...

Ice Shieldz

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #27 on: January 18, 2017, 04:35:58 AM »
Hmmm... If the activation energy / external forcing required to transition to a single cell system is too high, then an unstably meandering (excited) three cell system is much more likely...

Similar to the energy levels in an atom...
So as the equator-pole temp gradient continues to weaken, we'd expect more of what we are seeing - a greater meridional *mixing* of the cells?  Eventually, could the increasing mixing move toward the appearance and/or functionality of one giant cell?

DrTskoul

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #28 on: January 18, 2017, 05:03:02 AM »
Hmmm... If the activation energy / external forcing required to transition to a single cell system is too high, then an unstably meandering (excited) three cell system is much more likely...

Similar to the energy levels in an atom...
So as the equator-pole temp gradient continues to weaken, we'd expect more of what we are seeing - a greater meridional *mixing* of the cells?  Eventually, could the increasing mixing move toward the appearance and/or functionality of one giant cell?

If I understand what I read correctly, conservation of angular momentum, prevents the existence of a single cell. Wind velocities would be extreme at the poles.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2017, 05:10:56 AM »
Quote
Wind velocities would be extreme at the poles.
  Why? More extreme relative to lower latitudes?

Edit:  Upon re-pondering this, my guess would be an increase of coriolis effect with latitude, correct?
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 05:16:43 AM by Ice Shieldz »

wili

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2017, 05:14:32 AM »
Dr. T wrote: "Unless u can think of a configuration that promotes upwelling at the pole..."

My first reaction was to scoff...surely such a thing could never happen!

But...

Isn't this exactly what we are seeing the beginnings of?

The upper atmosphere is likely to continue to get quite cold in the winter for some time, but as the ice becomes more broken up and storms can intrude into the Arctic and stir up warmer deeper water, we could indeed have a steady upwelling at (or near) the pole.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DrTskoul

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #31 on: January 18, 2017, 05:20:15 AM »
Area being much smaller at the poles while enforcing mass and angular momentum conservation

 A single cell flow of converging  air masses from the equator to the pole will thus result to rapidly accelerating wind velocities ..

Unless I am missing sth...  :o

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #32 on: January 18, 2017, 11:10:09 AM »
I wonder what a year on year plot of wind speeds, over the winter pole would show?

This winter has seen an almost constant barrage of storms passing over the pole as systems from both Pacific and Atlantic plough into the region.

Wasn't the old pole a place of high pressure over winter with only the peripheries seeing disturbances?
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DrTskoul

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #33 on: January 18, 2017, 11:53:36 AM »
The northern ferrel cell is much more discontinuous and varying compared to its southern counterpart. But yes with deep cold in the Arctic past the stability of the northern polar cell would be higher...

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2017, 12:56:20 PM »
If I've understood the matter correctly, the reason we don't have a single cell stretching from the equator to the pole is because the earth is rotating too fast (warm air from the equator moving northwards is deflected by the Coriolis force before it can reach the pole). My knowledge on this topic is very limited though.     

DrTskoul

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #35 on: January 18, 2017, 01:32:15 PM »
If I've understood the matter correctly, the reason we don't have a single cell stretching from the equator to the pole is because the earth is rotating too fast (warm air from the equator moving northwards is deflected by the Coriolis force before it can reach the pole). My knowledge on this topic is very limited though.   

Same here...

Earth rotation and differences in heating due to the sun between equator and poles .

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #36 on: January 18, 2017, 03:13:35 PM »
Dr. T wrote: "Unless u can think of a configuration that promotes upwelling at the pole..."

My first reaction was to scoff...surely such a thing could never happen!

But...

Isn't this exactly what we are seeing the beginnings of?

The upper atmosphere is likely to continue to get quite cold in the winter for some time, but as the ice becomes more broken up and storms can intrude into the Arctic and stir up warmer deeper water, we could indeed have a steady upwelling at (or near) the pole.

Isn't that basically the warm ocean cold continent model?  you wouldn't get stable cells because there are two continents separated by ocean.

DrTskoul

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #37 on: January 18, 2017, 04:14:45 PM »
Dr. T wrote: "Unless u can think of a configuration that promotes upwelling at the pole..."

My first reaction was to scoff...surely such a thing could never happen!

But...

Isn't this exactly what we are seeing the beginnings of?

The upper atmosphere is likely to continue to get quite cold in the winter for some time, but as the ice becomes more broken up and storms can intrude into the Arctic and stir up warmer deeper water, we could indeed have a steady upwelling at (or near) the pole.

Isn't that basically the warm ocean cold continent model?  you wouldn't get stable cells because there are two continents separated by ocean.

Indeed. Initially I had in mind a more time averaged, annual setup. So we will be having an oscillation between a proper three cell system and a disrupted two and a half cell system that won't have a stable center but will be influenced by the particular initial setup of the atmosphere - ocean system around the Arctic, and will be dynamic in nature. At some point when ice is low enough at the begining of fall, and the thermal gradients messed up for to the CO2 forcing the feature will become the new normal.

EDIT: what I am describing is not profound,  has been repeated many times in a variety of ways. It just helps me complete the mental picture by writing things down
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 04:20:02 PM by DrTskoul »

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #38 on: January 18, 2017, 05:58:15 PM »
Dr. T wrote: "Unless u can think of a configuration that promotes upwelling at the pole..."

My first reaction was to scoff...surely such a thing could never happen!

But...

Isn't this exactly what we are seeing the beginnings of?

The upper atmosphere is likely to continue to get quite cold in the winter for some time, but as the ice becomes more broken up and storms can intrude into the Arctic and stir up warmer deeper water, we could indeed have a steady upwelling at (or near) the pole.

Isn't that basically the warm ocean cold continent model?  you wouldn't get stable cells because there are two continents separated by ocean.

Indeed. Initially I had in mind a more time averaged, annual setup. So we will be having an oscillation between a proper three cell system and a disrupted two and a half cell system that won't have a stable center but will be influenced by the particular initial setup of the atmosphere - ocean system around the Arctic, and will be dynamic in nature. At some point when ice is low enough at the begining of fall, and the thermal gradients messed up for to the CO2 forcing the feature will become the new normal.

EDIT: what I am describing is not profound,  has been repeated many times in a variety of ways. It just helps me complete the mental picture by writing things down

My basic response is the point was December 27 2015.

I might still be waiting for there to be so little ice in Summer that it cannot keep the temp from rising above 0, but in my opinion the change itself will not (did not) respect seasons.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #39 on: January 19, 2017, 04:12:28 AM »
Dr.Tskoul: '2 and 1/2 cell system'... That sounds like a good name for global circulation with disrupted NH circulation. Ocean absorbs not only more heat than ice but also ground so summers could see some advection even in the pole. A bit similarly to the north- and upwards migrating species, the cell we have come to know as north polar cell moves up and 'bleeds' through upper and mid troposphere to conjoin the highs genereted by the hadley cell.

A picture or two would indeed be helpful here. Imagining that after losing the constant radiator of arctic ice and the above cold weather the fronts in NH could start to move in sync with the tropical convergence zone adding to the variability of seasons and the weather all around the NH. Both the cells in NH would be highly twisted/slanted on their boundaries.

Attempted to change the holocene (likely also much of pleistocene)-circulation image of Shared Humanity to describe in a picture what I tried to formulate by words, that the arctic/ferrel cells are on top of each other would represent the warm air/cold air intrusions. Yes, 3d would be nice or at least a map with some 3d arrows. I guess the pic would be for autumn equinox or thereabouts... not knowing stratosphere well, left it out...
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 04:58:51 AM by Pmt111500 »

DrTskoul

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #40 on: January 19, 2017, 04:59:31 AM »
Nice schematics!

The situation is as farcical as the namesake "Naked Gun" series.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #41 on: January 19, 2017, 05:26:31 AM »
Nice schematics!

The situation is as farcical as the namesake "Naked Gun" series.

Thanks for compliments. Still it is possible, like many have stated that this sort of circulation cannot be stabile for long, be it decades or longer period, and a switch to one cell on nh happens as quickly as quick can be. And how the stratosphere reacts is another open question at least to me.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 06:22:04 AM by Pmt111500 »

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #42 on: January 19, 2017, 12:00:39 PM »
Over Summer the jet speeds of the Polar jet fall so low that the jet stream maps no longer show the flow erasing any trace of the polar Jet around up to half the Hemisphere?

As for the Strat? I just do not know much about it and its workings. It does not appear to be separated by the cell system as the trop below is so maybe any peturbations are able to run free with only the flow over the equator halting /reflecting them? I cannot remove the winter peturbations over Barentsz/Kara, and the heat flow this sends into that area of the strat, from the failure of the PV to form in a normal way so placing 'off skew' circulation up around the strat. Was it such peturbations that strong armed the QBO into not reversing last Feb?
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DrTskoul

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #43 on: January 19, 2017, 01:39:30 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html

"Collapse of the Arctic Cell - What it looks like"

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation
« Reply #44 on: January 21, 2017, 05:43:25 PM »
Jai Mitchell, addition to your comments in the freezing season thread.

Sometime around the middle of the last decade Nasa put out a news report saying that global dimming was reducing the warming potential of CO2 by up to 50%

They then put one out in 2014 looking at the impacts of Aerosols on the Arctic telling us that it could be warming it more than other places by up to 50%....

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