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Tom_Mazanec

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SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

DrTskoul

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #101 on: July 30, 2019, 11:00:37 PM »
Probably vultures will like AGW too...

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 02:08:16 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #103 on: August 07, 2019, 12:08:11 AM »
Calcium Levels in Freshwater Lakes Declining in Europe and North America
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-calcium-freshwater-lakes-declining-europe.html

A new global study of how calcium concentrations are changing in freshwater lakes around the world has revealed that in widespread areas in Europe and eastern North America, calcium levels are declining towards levels that can be critically low for the reproduction and survival of many aquatic organisms.

The decline of calcium may have significant impacts on freshwater organisms that depend on calcium deposition, including integral parts of the food web, such as freshwater mussels and zooplankton.

In Widespread diminishing anthropogenic effects on calcium in freshwaters, published recently in Scientific Reports, researchers discovered that the global median calcium concentration was 4.0 mg/L, with 20.7% of the water samples showing calcium concentrations < 1.5 mg/L.

1.5 mg/L is a threshold considered critical for the survival of many organisms that require calcium for their survival, therefore, some lakes are approaching levels of calcium that endanger organisms that rely on that calcium for structure and growth.

Open Access: Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer et al, Widespread diminishing anthropogenic effects on calcium in freshwaters, Scientific Reports (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #104 on: August 07, 2019, 06:19:38 PM »
Stranger Sea Things Turning Up Off Nova Scotia Shores
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-stranger-sea-nova-scotia-shores.html

... In recent years, recreational divers have been spotting far more exotic species that appear to be drifting north and settling into warmer Atlantic waters.

They have documented everything from tiny seahorses and sleek cornet fish to triggerfish and brightly colored butterfly fish—all creatures that appear to be moving north on the Gulf Stream.

And what was once a rare occurrence is not so unusual for Bond who routinely sees tropical and subtropical fish in his favorite dive sites after seeing his first one in Nova Scotia about eight years ago.

"It seems that in the last five years, it is more and more regular and some species I find every year," says Bond, the paint shop supervisor at Dalhousie.

Quote
"I caught a triggerfish in Mexico one year and then I saw one here the next year and I was thinking, 'Something's not right here—I shouldn't be seeing this here.'"

The tropical species may be lingering longer in northern waters too as the water temperatures stay warmer longer.

A recently published federal government report documented the warming trends for both air and water temperatures. The study, titled "Canada's Oceans Now: Atlantic Ecosystems," found there was a 100-year record high water temperature in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence in the 2012-2016 period.

https://dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans/publications/soto-rceo/2018/atlantic-ecosystems-ecosystemes-atlantiques/index-eng.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bligh8

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #105 on: August 08, 2019, 02:51:36 PM »
Quote
"I caught a triggerfish in Mexico one year and then I saw one here the next year and I was thinking, 'Something's not right here—I shouldn't be seeing this here.'"

Going back to the early/mid nineties tropical oddities were often seen in inlets and some in shallower water areas where there was an obstruction, rocks, wreaks & jetties.  From trigger fish to sea horse's they would all be here locally, at times, in high numbers.  Some felt that their eggs would ride north on sargassum seaweed and be born locally, others suggested these small creatures would traverse that long ride from the tropics to the northern reaches of the
temperate zone within the stream.  The gulf stream does at times deliver waves of tropical water up against the coast,  I found it disorienting to roll off my boat and clearly see the pebbles on the bottom some 50ft below , in water that one would expect 10-15 ft of viz.  It was very unusual but not un-heard of to have 200ft of visibility…. mostly, late summer.
I could see the population of these tropical creatures fall in-step with the water temps.  The pic below is of my dive boat "Miss Fitt"  your typical down-east, hard chine, full keel & stable platform from which to dive.






kassy

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #106 on: August 08, 2019, 04:56:29 PM »
A marine microbe could play increasingly important role in regulating climate

...

The study finds bacteria containing rhodopsins, a sunshine-grabbing pigment, are more abundant than once thought. Unlike algae, they don't pull carbon dioxide (CO2) out of the air. And they will likely become more abundant in warming oceans, signaling a shuffling of microbial communities at the base of the food chain where the nitty-gritty work of energy conversion occurs.

...

hodopsin photosystems were much more abundant than previously realized and concentrated in nutrient-poor waters. In such oligotrophic zones, they outperform algae at capturing light. While algae use sunlight and CO2 to produce organic material and oxygen, rhodopsin pigments use light to make adenosine triphosphate, the basic energy currency that drives many cellular processes.

Rhodopsins appear to be more abundant in a nutrient-poor ocean, and in the future, the ocean will be more nutrient poor as temperatures change," Gómez-Consarnau explained. "So, with fewer nutrients near the surface, algae will have limited photosynthesis, and the rhodopsin process will be more abundant. We may have a shift in the future, which means the ocean won't be able to absorb as much carbon as it does today. So more CO2 gas may remain in the atmosphere, and the planet may warm faster."

and more on:
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-marine-microbe-increasingly-important-role.html
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #107 on: August 10, 2019, 08:30:57 PM »
Coral becomes 15% weaker in warmer water. Worse than bleaching, pieces are breaking off:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49255642
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vox_mundi

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #108 on: August 12, 2019, 07:26:24 PM »
Nice boat bligh8. Reminds me of my lobstering days. Looks like you'll have some company in the water this summer/fall ...

Droves of Blacktip Sharks Are Summering in Long Island for the First Time
https://www.livescience.com/amp/sharks-vacation-in-hamptons.html

... Blacktip sharks (Carcharhinus limbatus), which range from 4 to 8 feet (1.2 to 2.4 meters) long, spend much of the year in Florida before heading north to cooler waters. In the past, the Carolinas were the sharks' destination of choice. But not anymore. Because of climate change, the waters off North and South Carolina are no longer cool enough in the summer. So blacktips are seeking waters farther north — and Long Island fits the bill. And just like the New Yorkers eager to spend the last weeks of summer in the Hamptons, these finned beachgoers are traveling in droves.

Long Island is much more packed with humans than blacktips' former habitat. That means more encounters between sharks and humans are probable, Kajiura said. ... That's because blacktips are shallow-water species; they hang out where people swim.

Many of these sharks are tagged with devices that allow scientists to track their locations. But it wasn't until 2016 that scientists noticed that many of the tagged sharks' had new migration pattern. At first, it seemed like a fluke, but it’s happened every summer since then — including this one, Kajiura said. Kajiura was blown away by the change

There are two possible reasons blacktips might choose the Hamptons over the Carolinas, according to Kajiura. It might be that the Carolina waters are getting too hot for them; most sharks, including blacktips, are ectotherms, so they can't cool down their bodies like mammals can. Even a small change in ocean temperature can cause them to overheat. Or, it could be that it's the fish the sharks eat, not the sharks themselves, that are moving due to warming waters —  and the sharks are simply following them, Kajiura said. Either way, there's no question about this: Temperatures along the Atlantic Seaboard are changing rapidly. Since 1960, the temperatures of the waters between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine have shot up by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius), National Geographic reported.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #109 on: August 13, 2019, 05:35:30 PM »
Climate Change Turning Florida's Sea Turtles Female. How Long Can Species Survive?
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-climate-florida-sea-turtles-female.html

As is the case with some reptiles, the sex of sea turtles is determined by the temperature of the sand where the eggs incubate. With climate change turning up the heat in South Florida, producing longer and hotter summers, sea turtle gender balance is being thrown way out of whack.

"It's scary," Wyneken said. "I'm seeing more and more all-female nests, and even when we have males, it's a very small percentage."

... Wyneken's research over the past 20 years shows that the number of males is decreasing across the three species she monitors, even as they lay eggs at different times during the March-October nesting season. Using the past decade as a reference, she said that seven out of the 10 years produced 100% female hatchlings. The three years in which nests produced males, the ratios ranged from just 10 to 20%.

Wyneken said that for the past few years, especially since scorching summers of 2015 and 2016, she hasn't seen a significant difference in the sex ratios of the species in South Florida: it's girls, girls and more girls, in every nest.

What scientists have observed in South Florida is happening in other sea turtle nesting areas around the world.

On Australia's Raine Island, the biggest green turtle nesting ground in the Pacific, the ratio was 116 females to one male in a 2018 study led by Michael Jensen and Camryn Allen, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The study found that older turtles that had hatched 30 or 40 years earlier were mostly female, but only by a 6 to 1 ratio. Younger turtles, however, born during the last 20 years, were more than 99% female.

Another study done recently with green turtles in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa, by the University of Exeter and Portugal's Marine and Environmental Sciences Center showed similar results.

"All organisms tend to adapt to their changing environment by evolving through natural selection, but the question is, will turtles adapt as fast as the climate is changing around them?" said Fredric Janzen, an evolutionary biologist at Iowa State University who was one of the first scientists to connect climate change to temperature-dependent sex determination in turtles. In a 1994 study titled "Climate Change and Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in Reptiles," Janzen found that even a small increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) was enough to drastically skew the sex ratio of the painted turtles in his research.

In his opinion, changes are occurring faster than they did prior to human influence, and this can potentially—and fatally—outpace the ability of some species to adapt.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #110 on: August 14, 2019, 03:11:11 AM »
Elephants and monkeys help trees, which help lower AGW, so losing these species will worsen climate change:
https://www.popsci.com/elephants-monkeys-and-climate-change/
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #111 on: August 15, 2019, 12:05:06 AM »
Carnivorous plant invades New York.
And that may be its only hope:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/science/waterwheel-plants-carnivorous.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #112 on: August 15, 2019, 03:18:24 PM »
If you understand the science of this - this is VERY BAD!

--------------

Research: Link Between Increased Atmospheric Vapor Deficit and Worldwide Loss of Vegetation
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-link-atmospheric-vapor-deficit-worldwide.html

Scientists have been studying the possible repercussions of global warming for several years, and suggest it is likely to lead not only to warmer temperatures, but also changes to weather patterns. One such weather change not often mentioned is VPD, which is the difference in air pressure due to water vapor during fully saturated times versus times when it unsaturated. When VPD is increasing, there is less water in the air. VPD is important because of its impact on plants. When VPD rises a certain amount, plants react by closing their stomata, the pores in their leaves, to prevent water loss. But this also shuts down the release of oxygen and the absorption of carbon dioxide—partially shutting down photosynthesis and slowing growth. In this new effort, the researchers wondered if there might be a connection between observed losses of vegetation worldwide and changes to VPD in some parts of the world.

To find out, the researchers obtained datasets that included observation information from across the globe going all the way back to the 1950s. When focusing on VPD, they found that prior to the 1990s, VPD increased only slightly. But after 1998, the VPD grew quite dramatically—by up to 17 times over the next several years in some places, and it remained at those levels. They also found that over half of all vegetated land on the planet experienced a rise in VPD. The researchers also found that the upswing in VPD occurred in lockstep with the rise in global temperatures and the decrease in worldwide vegetative cover. They suggest that global warming is pushing VPD ever higher, resulting in more loss of vegetation—and because the planet is growing hotter, they predict that VPD will continue to increase, as well, resulting in diminishing vegetative cover.


Fig. 1 Global mean vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies of vegetated area over the growing season

Open Access: Wenping Yuan et al. Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth, Science Advances (2019).
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 03:29:22 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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SteveMDFP

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #113 on: August 18, 2019, 09:59:27 PM »
A new fungal pathogen now marching slowly around the world might (or might not) directly be a consequence of global warming.   But almost surely this process is facilitated by global trade, something that helps drive warming.

In this case, we may lose the common banana:

Our Favorite Banana May Be Doomed; Can New Varieties Replace It?


"...There's a deadly fungus that attacks banana plants. In the past century, an earlier version of this fungus wiped out commercial plantings of a banana variety called Gros Michel that once dominated the global banana trade.

Now history may be repeating itself. A new version of the fungus, called Tropical Race 4, is killing off the Cavendish variety.

Tropical Race 4 has marched across China and Southeast Asia, laying waste to banana plantations. It's killing bananas in Australia, and cases have been reported in southern Africa...."

Well, at least the extinction might result in less tropical foods being flown to northern cities.


kassy

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #114 on: August 18, 2019, 11:15:18 PM »
Our favorite banana is always a huge monoculture. It´s in many places but it is all the same which makes it vulnerable.

Long ago i stopped at a banana market in Sri Lanka or rather our guide did (they have cute tiny cars runnning on what seems like moped engines and huge drops next to the road sometimes). They had over 30 kinds of banana there and i tasted a couple of the snack ones. Other types were only for cooking and the really big ones were expensive because if you ate enough some parts of you grew.

There are many types but we go for the monoculture which always makes the food vulnerable and the land it is grown on one sided.

 
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nanning

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #115 on: August 19, 2019, 06:44:33 AM »
<snip>
Well, at least the extinction might result in less tropical foods being flown to northern cities.

Sorry to shoehorn this here to focus attention on personal carbon footprint and awareness of where your food comes from.

Stop those planes flying!  8)

By not buying anything from far away, preferably nothing from outside my country, the Netherlands, these planes don't have to transport my food all the way across the world.
I have not eaten a banana in years and I love eating them. They were my favourite fruit. You really get used to it and will adapt.
Same with apples and pears in june. Don't buy them if you're living in the NH.

@kassy
Thanks for mentioning your Sri Lanka experiences.
I guess what the article in SteveMDFP's post means is those varieties are not yet eligible for monoculture because they probably die when showered with the current biocides.
What do you think the reason is?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

vox_mundi

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #116 on: August 19, 2019, 02:15:03 PM »
Quote
... I guess what the article in SteveMDFP's post means is those varieties are not yet eligible for monoculture because they probably die when showered with the current biocides.

What do you think the reason is? 
The biggest issue for bananas is shipping and storage quality, productivity, size uniformity, and finally taste.

Shipping and storage is essential for a global food product. The produce at a local food market just wouldn't stand up.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #117 on: August 19, 2019, 03:24:23 PM »
Good nanning. I respect you more than those rich leftists who say I have to give up my lifestyle but they don’t.
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TerryM

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #118 on: August 19, 2019, 04:15:06 PM »
Quote
... I guess what the article in SteveMDFP's post means is those varieties are not yet eligible for monoculture because they probably die when showered with the current biocides.

What do you think the reason is? 
The biggest issue for bananas is shipping and storage quality, productivity, size uniformity, and finally taste.

Shipping and storage is essential for a global food product. The produce at a local food market just wouldn't stand up.


Eat a banana in Hawaii, and discover what bananas really taste like. WoW!
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #119 on: August 19, 2019, 05:44:30 PM »
Red kites are a common sight in UK skies thanks to a reintroduction programme that means the raptor has gone from virtually extinct to more than 1,800 breeding pairs. It now appears a changing climate will mean its close cousin the black kite will be the latest species to populate our skies.
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/black-kites-breed-uk-climate-change-raptor-breeding-conservation-a9063046.html
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #120 on: August 23, 2019, 03:01:06 AM »
As Oceans Warm, Tropical Corals Seek Refuge in Cooler Waters
https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-oceans-warm-tropical-corals-seek-refuge-in-cooler-waters
Quote
Due to soaring temperatures, tropical coral reefs are facing a bleak future. But recent research shows that some of these corals are migrating to cooler subtropical seas, offering a measure of hope that these ecosystems can survive the existential threat of climate change.

Ancient tropical plants produce cones in UK for first time on record
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/22/uk/tropical-plant-uk-intl-scli-gbr/
Quote
Two cycads (cycas revoluta), a type of primitive plant that dominated the Earth's flora 280 million years ago, have produced cones on the cliffs of a botanic garden on the Isle of Wight, off England's south coast.
"This can be seen as further evidence from the plant kingdom of climate change in action. Certainly this sort of plant could formerly not be considered hardy in the UK; the recent heatwave has contributed to the individual cone growth," Ventnor Botanic Garden said in a statement.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 03:15:33 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #121 on: August 26, 2019, 02:12:03 PM »
Environmental Groups Sue to Block Trump's Endangered Species Act Rule Changes
Those changes make it harder to take future risks from climate change into account and bring economics into the picture when determining protections for species.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/21082019/lawsuit-endangered-species-act-trump-rule-changes-climate-change-earthjustice-sierra
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vox_mundi

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #122 on: August 27, 2019, 06:16:10 PM »
Acid Oceans are Shrinking Plankton, Fueling Faster Climate Change
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-acid-oceans-plankton-fueling-faster.html

... The more acidic the seawater, the more the diatom communities were made up of smaller species, reducing the total amount of silica they produced. Less silica means the diatoms aren't heavy enough to sink quickly, reducing the rate at which they float down to the sea bed, safely storing carbon away from the atmosphere.

On examining individual cells, we found many of the species were highly sensitive to increased acidity, reducing their individual silicification rates by 35-80%. These results revealed not only are communities changing, but species that remain in the community are building less-dense cell walls.

Most alarming, many of the species were affected at ocean pH levels predicted for the end of this century, adding to a growing body of evidence showing significant ecological implications of climate change will take effect much sooner than previously anticipated.

These losses in silica production could have far reaching consequences for the biology and chemistry of our oceans.

Many species affected are also an important component of the diet of the Antarctic krill, which is central to the Antarctic marine food web.

Fewer diatoms sinking to the ocean floor mean significant changes in silicon cycling and carbon burial. In a time when carbon drawn down by our ocean is crucial to helping sustain our atmospheric systems, any loss from this process will exacerbate CO₂ pollution.


Single-celled silicification with increasing acid concentration [H+].

Katherina Petrou et al. Acidification diminishes diatom silica production in the Southern Ocean, Nature Climate Change (2019)

-------------------------

North Atlantic Ocean Productivity has Dropped 10 Percent During Industrial Era
http://news.mit.edu/2019/north-atlantic-phytoplankton-productivity-drop-0406

Virtually all marine life depends on the productivity of phytoplankton — microscopic organisms that work tirelessly at the ocean’s surface to absorb the carbon dioxide that gets dissolved into the upper ocean from the atmosphere.

Now, scientists at MIT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and elsewhere have found evidence that phytoplankton’s productivity is declining steadily in the North Atlantic, one of the world’s most productive marine basins.

In a paper appearing today in Nature, the researchers report that phytoplankton’s productivity in this important region has gone down around 10 percent since the mid-19th century and the start of the Industrial era. This decline coincides with steadily rising surface temperatures over the same period of time.

Matthew Osman, the paper’s lead author and a graduate student in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences and the MIT/WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography, says there are indications that phytoplankton’s productivity may decline further as temperatures continue to rise as a result of human-induced climate change.

“It’s a significant enough decine that we should be concerned,” Osman says. “The amount of productivity in the oceans roughly scales with how much phytoplankton you have. So this translates to 10 percent of the marine food base in this region that’s been lost over the industrial era. If we have a growing population but a decreasing food base, at some point we’re likely going to feel the effects of that decline.”
« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 06:41:31 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #123 on: August 29, 2019, 10:59:00 PM »
The Frightening Spread of Toxic Algae
https://newrepublic.com/article/154799/frightening-spread-toxic-algae
Quote
Climate change is accelerating the spread of lethal algal blooms in American waterways—with devastating results for humans and animals alike.
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bligh8

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #124 on: August 30, 2019, 03:52:37 AM »
            Extended U.S. Tornado Outbreak During Late May 2019: A Forecast of Opportunity
                         Vittorio A. Gensini  David Gold  John T. Allen  Bradford S. Barrett
                  First published: 27 August 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084470
          https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084470 - open access

                           some excerpts and figures .. more within the paper

Abstract
The second half of May 2019 was an unusually active period for tornadic thunderstorms across the U.S. Great Plains, Midwest, and lower Great Lakes. While this period typically coincides with the peak climatological frequency of tornadoes, preliminary reports of tornadoes were over triple the expected 30‐year average. Multiple‐day outbreaks of tornadoes are not unprecedented in the United States; however, this event was perhaps the first to be forecast at subseasonal lead times (3–4 weeks) by the Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecast team. This forecast of opportunity was driven, in part, by anomalous convective forcing in portions of the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, causing subsequent changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric angular momentum. This manuscript analyzes the evolution of hemispheric‐scale circulation features leading up to the event, examines teleconnection processes known to influence U.S. tornadoes, and provides insights into the forecast process at subseasonal lead times.

1 Introduction
The period 17–29 May 2019 was among the most active periods of severe weather the United States has seen in years. While 2019 data are still preliminary, at least 374 tornadoes occurred during this 13‐day stretch, more than tripling the 1986–2018 average for this period of 107. In total, 757 tornado warnings were issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service, with seven fatalities reported (Figure 1). This late‐May period contributed significantly to the second highest monthly (E)F1+ tornado count (220) on record for May since reliable tornado counts began in the early 1950s, behind only May 2003.


The 757 tornado warnings (red polygons) issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service from 1200 UTC 17 May to 1200 UTC 30 May 2019. Seven fatalities were reported during this period (locations marked by red +).


3.1 Event Summary: Synoptic Pattern
One of the most active periods of severe storms in U.S. history began on 17 May 2019 as a shortwave trough approached the Great Plains from the Great Basin. From 17 May onward, repeated days of severe weather, including several tornado outbreaks (Verbout et al., 2006), occurred as upper‐tropospheric southwesterly flow remained persistent over the Great Plains (Figure 2a), with average 300‐hPa winds during the period greater than 40 m/s. At 500 hPa, the mean negative geopotential height anomaly for the period was greater than 125 m over a large area covering the western CONUS. A persistent warm sector over the plains was characterized by vertically deep (≥2 km above ground level), anomalously rich boundary layer moisture (Figure 2c) and warm temperatures, both of which contributed to moderate‐extreme levels of convective available potential energy. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico for the 5‐week period leading up to this event were at or above normal, providing a source of boundary layer moisture (Molina & Allen, 2019). Another notable feature of this persistent period of tornado activity was multiple days with relatively weak capping inversions associated with below‐average elevated mixed layer temperatures. This promoted high spatial concentrations of severe storms that, given the favorable atmospheric parameters, were able to produce a substantial number of tornadoes.


For the period 17–29 May 2019, average (a) 300‐hPa wind (m/s) and 300‐hPa geopotential height (m), average (b) 500‐hPa geopotential height (m) and 500‐hPa geopotential height anomaly (m), and average (c) 925‐hPa specific humidity anomaly (g/kg) and 925‐hPa geopotential height (m) as computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. Anomalies calculated from the 1980–2010 climatology.

A leading mode of subseasonal variability capable of giving rise to synoptic patterns favorable for enhanced tornadic activity is the MJO (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Baggett et al., 2018; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett, 2018). As an MJO event evolves over a 40‐ to 60‐day cycle, tropical convection along the equator propagates eastward from the Indian Ocean toward the Pacific. Such propagation was clearly evident in outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (Figure 3) over the 4 weeks leading up to this event. Dynamically, latent heat release results in the formation of an anomalous anticyclone to the northwest of the convection, leading to an intensification of the upper‐tropospheric zonal winds to the anticyclone's north (Moore et al., 2010). As the MJO perturbation propagates eastward forcing convection, the net result is an extension of a strong upper‐tropospheric jet into the midlatitudes of the central Pacific. When a blocking anticyclone is in place over the eastern North Pacific ocean, this jet extension eventually leads to wave breaking over western North America. It is this wave breaking, and subsequent troughing over the U.S., that links the tropical MJO to U.S. tornado frequency (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Baggett et al., 2018; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett, 2018). The predictability of the MJO convection as it moves east from the Indian Ocean across the Pacific Ocean (Lim et al., 2018) allows it to serve as a leading indicator of upcoming tornadic activity once the MJO convection moves into the eastern Pacific Ocean (Baggett et al., 2018).


Fig 3. Average 300‐hPa geopotential height (contours) and wind speed (color fill) for (a) 19–25 April, (b) 26 April to 2 May, (c) 3–9 May, (d) 10–16 May, (e) 17–23 May, and (f) 24–29 May 2019.

Multiple time and space scales contribute to subseasonal and low‐frequency variability, including El Niño and the MJO. The former was lingering from boreal autumn 2018, while the latter was becoming active from latter April into early May. While El Niño is known to be less favorable to tornado occurrence (Allen et al., 2015; Cook et al., 2017), its modulation of the large‐scale circulation is not necessarily unfavorable to tornadic potential. This paradox arises due to its role in the development of a subtropical jet stream over the central and eastern Pacific extending into the Americas. This influence, as illustrated by (Cook et al., 2017) for the later winter months, can be favorable to the development of tornado outbreaks, particularly over the southeastern United States. Indeed, this type of subtropical jet signature was evident in the 4 weeks leading up to the May 2019 event, and the subtropical jet merged with the North Pacific jet for the duration of the event (Figure 4), suggesting that ENSO contributed favorably to this anomalous period of tornado activity.


Average 300‐hPa geopotential height (contours) and wind speed (color fill) for (a) 19–25 April, (b) 26 April to 2 May, (c) 3–9 May, (d) 10–16 May, (e) 17–23 May, and (f) 24–29 May 2019.

4 Summary and Discussion

The question of why some periods record anomalously above‐climatology tornado frequency has troubled many in the U.S. forecasting community for the past few decades (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Lee et al., 2012; Marzban & Schaefer, 2001; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett et al., 2015). The period 17–29 May 2019 stands as one of the most active in history, and was characterized by more than three times the climatological number of tornadoes for that time of year, occurring over 13 days and encompassing a wide region of Great Plains and Midwestern CONUS. Here, we have illustrated that a persistent upper‐level synoptic trough over the western CONUS, with a downstream ridge aloft over the eastern CONUS, were the main synoptic features of interest. Attribution of such synoptic‐scale features to larger‐scale, and therefore more predictable signals (Grazzini & Vitart, 2015), remains challenging owing to the complex manner in which processes interact to produce coherent, and therefore potentially predictable, subseasonal evolutions. In the present case, time scales associated with the propagation of the MJO from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the central Pacific Ocean (∼20–30 days, or roughly half a cycle) helped create an anomalous North Pacific jet stream extension and retraction sequence that aligned favorably with a transition in AAM from a relatively high to a low state. Previous research indicates that such MJO and AAM/GWO events can lead to favorable atmospheric conditions for tornadic storms in the U.S. Here, with careful monitoring of such features as they emerged both diagnostically and in NWP‐derived RMM phase space, forecasters were able to use signals within both the MJO and AAM/GWO to anticipate the potential for an extended period of favorable severe weather conditions nearly four weeks in advance. While the forecast metric of above‐normal, normal, or below‐normal (tercile) levels of tornado activity over a subjective spatial region is among the more simple methods available (Klemm & McPherson, 2017; Hartmann et al., 2002), this is a unique example of how understanding tropical convection's role in modulating extratropical dynamic processes can be used to identify a forecast of opportunity for an extreme weather event. The event also offers a pathway for developing operational predictions of U.S. tornado activity across a portion of the subseasonal timescale. Finally, this manuscript represents a single case of a successful subseasonal tornado forecast. More cases, including potential null events, should be examined in future work.

Welcome to the Anthropocene!
« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 03:58:01 AM by bligh8 »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #125 on: September 01, 2019, 01:04:10 AM »
Outlook For The Great Barrier Reef Is Now ‘Very Poor,’ Australian Government Says
Climate change remains the greatest threat to the Australian natural treasure, and things are not looking good.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/great-barrier-reef-outlook-very-poor_n_5d68a900e4b02bc6bb372c4a?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000048
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The report, published every five years by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, is the first time the government has listed the long-term prospects of the reef so bleakly. The findings directly point to runaway climate change spurred by greenhouse gas emissions as the prime threat to the structure, noting that the time to protect the reef’s “long-term future is now.”
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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #126 on: September 01, 2019, 04:52:39 AM »
Outlook For The Great Barrier Reef Is Now ‘Very Poor,’ Australian Government Says
Climate change remains the greatest threat to the Australian natural treasure, and things are not looking good.
<snip>

Climate change Australian Government remains the greatest threat to the Australian natural treasure, and things are not looking good.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #127 on: September 04, 2019, 06:49:43 PM »
Climate change causing migrating birds to change flight path, study finds
https://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/climate-change-causing-migrating-birds-to-change-flight-path-study-finds-1-4995638
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Barnacle geese traditionally stopped off to fuel-up on food just south of the Arctic circle in Norway on their journey from the UK to nesting sites on Svalbard.

Now most of the flocks break their journey in northern Norway, far above the Arctic circle.

The findings also suggest geese are learning the new habits from each other

The findings are based on analysis of 45 years of observations by the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, the University of St Andrews, the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, BirdLife Norway and the British Waterfowl and Wetlands Trust.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #128 on: September 06, 2019, 11:00:46 PM »
Climate emergency to blame for heather crisis – National Trust
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/05/climate-emergency-to-blame-for-heather-crisis-national-trust
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The National Trust has flagged up that 75% of the plant has been lost or is struggling on some slopes that it manages in the west of England and blames the climate emergency for the problem.

Experts from the Heather Trust, which is based in Dumfries and Galloway, south-west Scotland, said it was seeing similar problems across moorland in Scotland, northern England and Wales.

Red abalone fights for survival amid climate change
https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/press-play-with-madeleine-brand/remembering-2-santa-monica-victims-of-the-california-boat-fire/red-abalone-fights-for-survival-amid-climate-change
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Abalone, specifically red abalone, has been a popular menu item in sushi and seafood restaurants in California. It’s a sea slug that’s about the size of a dinner plate. Despite a decades-old ban on commercial fishing of red abalone, they are disappearing and not bouncing back. The fate of this creature could be a sign of what’s in store for California’s coast.
Sea otters are my second favorite critters.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 11:06:31 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #129 on: September 11, 2019, 09:10:54 PM »
Washington post article "2C Beyond the Limit - Dangerous new hot zones are spreading around the world".   Some pretty nice graphics

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-world/?wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1


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A Washington Post analysis of multiple temperature data sets found numerous locations around the globe that have warmed by at least 2 degrees Celsius over the past century.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #130 on: September 16, 2019, 06:01:32 PM »
Waters off the coast of Maine vulnerable to changing climate
https://www.pressherald.com/2019/09/15/the-gulf-of-maine-braces-for-the-next-big-ocean-heat-wave/
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Warming within the swirling ocean depths of the Gulf of Maine has implications for all life and livelihoods within the ecosystem. Scientists, fishermen and aquaculturists brace for challenges.
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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #131 on: September 18, 2019, 08:03:49 PM »
Climate Change Is Reducing Mating Behavior Among Some Birds
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/climate-change-is-reducing-mating-behavior-among-some-birds
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Rising global temperatures are impacting the ability of grassland birds to mate, forcing some males to choose between high-energy mating displays or seeking shelter and saving energy to protect themselves from the heat, according to new research published in the journal PLOS ONE.
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