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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1200 on: May 11, 2017, 11:30:34 AM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1201 on: May 11, 2017, 01:37:56 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO
« Last Edit: May 11, 2017, 01:44:16 PM by magnamentis »

Sterks

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1202 on: May 11, 2017, 02:26:22 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO
If I want to buy a house, the first I think is "how many square meters". It does not say much, but automatically helps me to discard 70% of the too small or too big houses.
It is very useful. It is very informative. Does it give me the full picture of the house? By no means.
Good. The extent of Arctic ice is much more useful, more informative about Arctic ice. AND IT'S VERY RELEVANT on its evolution, NOT SHITTY, because you will observe solar radiation and that this solar radiation is absorbed and not reflected back to space. Larger extent, now that there is no surface melting, simply means that less solar radiation is being absorbed by our planet Earth, and I welcome that it is larger than same date 2016.

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1203 on: May 11, 2017, 02:31:54 PM »
3rd ... basically it gotta be enough gradient to overcome vertical mixing in melt ponds caused by water's density anomaly at +4C;

Would that be enough to cause mixing, though?  The density difference between 4C and 0C is only about one-hundredth of a percent.  Seems like if the melt pond is over more saline first-year ice, the meltwater lower in the pond would be denser.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1204 on: May 11, 2017, 02:44:56 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.
This melting season is a conflict between two opposing effects:
Strong FDD anomaly and strong export during winter leading to much lower volume than 2016, and therefore lower resistance to melt vs.
Much higher extent and area due to relative lack of Beaufort Gyre and relatively high export, leading to much lower albedo-warming potential (=~open water under insolation) as calculated and explained here:
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs
As of now, the cumulative anomaly is not very far from that of 2016, but the large differences in daily values will increase the cumulative anomaly rather quickly from now on.

So it's an interesting test year - will the low volume of 2017 win over early losses in extent of 2016? I fully expect 2017 to win, but yes it could be otherwise.

Ajpope85

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1205 on: May 11, 2017, 03:50:35 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO
If I want to buy a house, the first I think is "how many square meters". It does not say much, but automatically helps me to discard 70% of the too small or too big houses.
It is very useful. It is very informative. Does it give me the full picture of the house? By no means.
Good. The extent of Arctic ice is much more useful, more informative about Arctic ice. AND IT'S VERY RELEVANT on its evolution, NOT SHITTY, because you will observe solar radiation and that this solar radiation is absorbed and not reflected back to space. Larger extent, now that there is no surface melting, simply means that less solar radiation is being absorbed by our planet Earth, and I welcome that it is larger than same date 2016.

The square footage of a house has a guaranteed minimum volume. The square milage of the Arctic does not.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1206 on: May 11, 2017, 03:50:49 PM »
Little too early to be getting concerned, especially with the +AD pattern being strongly advertised by the operational and ensemble GFS and EC runs. Strong warming will take place over the next few days.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1207 on: May 11, 2017, 04:01:36 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.
This has been said countless times, but apparently it needs to be said once again: extent is often not a meaningful figure for a melting season in Arctic. Your post even confirms this: extent is "ordinary", but plenty other things are not (volume, temperature anomalies, jet stream state, Greenland melt, algae, etc). What's more likely: all those things being unusual having no significance - or extent figure simply failing to grasp how abnormal this year is?

It is because "extent" does not equal "area". If there is one 16x16 miles square of solid ice surface, with 0.0 square meter of open water - this counts as 256 square miles of ice "extent". But then if there is another 16x16 miles square which has one piece of ice 40 square miles in size, and the rest of that 16x16 miles place is 216 square miles of open water, - that ALSO counts as 256 square miles of ice. And nobody has ANY idea how many such 16x16 "mostly water" areas are included into the total "ice extent" figure reported from having that total extent figure itself, only. Same for 16x16 mile blocks having ~half, third, quarter open water, etc, - all those are also "100% ice extent", and that's totally official.
 Proof.

What is given for the reason for such a method of sea ice observation statistic there - is much outdated: satellite sensors are now better than they were when satellite observations only started (which is when it was decided to use this kind of extent calculation), plus nowadays, with thinner and thinner ice, fragmentation and "slush" become more and more common and large-scale features of Arctic melt seasons.

How on Earth anybody could make serious conclusions nowadays about whether we have "ordinary melt season" or "exceptional melt season" based on extent alone - is simply beyond me... IMO, it's simply impossible.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2017, 04:11:37 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1208 on: May 11, 2017, 04:36:43 PM »
I did say "as far as extent is concerned" in my post. I believe that is called a caveat. It is also about only one year. Extent is also the only internally  consistent set of data for the entire satellite record since 1979.

Impossible ? The US ceebees have a saying "the difficult now, the impossible may take a little longer".
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oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1209 on: May 11, 2017, 04:52:39 PM »
F. Tnioli, in reality sea ice area (which I think you were referring to) is also much higher than 2016.
But on the other hand, extent/area in early May is mostly peripheral areas and means less than during the summer.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1210 on: May 11, 2017, 04:54:13 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO
If I want to buy a house, the first I think is "how many square meters". It does not say much, but automatically helps me to discard 70% of the too small or too big houses.
It is very useful. It is very informative. Does it give me the full picture of the house? By no means.
Good. The extent of Arctic ice is much more useful, more informative about Arctic ice. AND IT'S VERY RELEVANT on its evolution, NOT SHITTY, because you will observe solar radiation and that this solar radiation is absorbed and not reflected back to space. Larger extent, now that there is no surface melting, simply means that less solar radiation is being absorbed by our planet Earth, and I welcome that it is larger than same date 2016.

a) i mentioned that with albedo and stuff in the same context in another thread, hence agree to that but cannot write the same excerpt each time in full in various threads

b) we're not entirely talking the same thing, i was only referring as to measuring the amount and the state of the ice while there is more to it, you're right

c) reason why a posted at all is that too many read too much from extent data IMO too much fuss about daily ups and downs while the above remains true

in short, the word shitty is inappropriate, lost my horses for a sec, while the key point i wanted to make, perhaps not perfectly put, remains. you'll see that withing the next 2-5 years extent will loose it's rank as the main indicator of sea-ice development to volume and what i said will become common sense, at least roughly.

thanks for replying, even thoug, as yo can see in my other post, i was aware, it's worth to mention because i neglect on that in this thread.

realitybytes

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1211 on: May 11, 2017, 05:53:36 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO
If I want to buy a house, the first I think is "how many square meters". It does not say much, but automatically helps me to discard 70% of the too small or too big houses.
It is very useful. It is very informative. Does it give me the full picture of the house? By no means.
Good. The extent of Arctic ice is much more useful, more informative about Arctic ice. AND IT'S VERY RELEVANT on its evolution, NOT SHITTY, because you will observe solar radiation and that this solar radiation is absorbed and not reflected back to space. Larger extent, now that there is no surface melting, simply means that less solar radiation is being absorbed by our planet Earth, and I welcome that it is larger than same date 2016.

What you're talking about is area, not extent.

As I've read so often here before, 'sea ice extent' is a product meant to inform as to areas that have greater or lesser amount of ice, meant primarily as an aid to navigation - anything over 15% coverage in a particular square is counted 100% for that area.

'Sea ice area' would be the measure more closely linked to albedo.

Extent, as to your choice for real estate, would be like measuring the square footage of the property's extent out to its furthest outbuildings.



Sterks

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1212 on: May 11, 2017, 06:04:03 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO
If I want to buy a house, the first I think is "how many square meters". It does not say much, but automatically helps me to discard 70% of the too small or too big houses.
It is very useful. It is very informative. Does it give me the full picture of the house? By no means.
Good. The extent of Arctic ice is much more useful, more informative about Arctic ice. AND IT'S VERY RELEVANT on its evolution, NOT SHITTY, because you will observe solar radiation and that this solar radiation is absorbed and not reflected back to space. Larger extent, now that there is no surface melting, simply means that less solar radiation is being absorbed by our planet Earth, and I welcome that it is larger than same date 2016.

a) i mentioned that with albedo and stuff in the same context in another thread, hence agree to that but cannot write the same excerpt each time in full in various threads

b) we're not entirely talking the same thing, i was only referring as to measuring the amount and the state of the ice while there is more to it, you're right

c) reason why a posted at all is that too many read too much from extent data IMO too much fuss about daily ups and downs while the above remains true

in short, the word shitty is inappropriate, lost my horses for a sec, while the key point i wanted to make, perhaps not perfectly put, remains. you'll see that withing the next 2-5 years extent will loose it's rank as the main indicator of sea-ice development to volume and what i said will become common sense, at least roughly.

thanks for replying, even thoug, as yo can see in my other post, i was aware, it's worth to mention because i neglect on that in this thread.
Magnamentis:
Sea ice extent is pretty close to what in physics is called an "observable", that is, a dynamic variable that can be measured. It is NOT an observable, but the required algorithms and modeling to derive the variable from the observables (microwave signals, satellite relative position and velocity which are not observables but the satellite positioning determination system takes care of that; calibration of instruments;  and more) are immediate and straightforward, almost like linear rules, except for the controversial thresholds. However, thickness is so much farther from being an observable. I agree. The rank of extent will diminish, but I would assume this will happen in more than five years.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1213 on: May 11, 2017, 06:14:51 PM »
Let's not wax philosophical over sea ice extent as a measure. It's just one of many sources of information that we use to assess the situation in the Arctic. Period.

I'm not going to tolerate any further discussion on this subject (open a thread if you absolutely have to).

What is happening in the Arctic now? That is what this thread is about. If nothing much is happening, then we don't talk much. If a lot is happening, we talk a lot.

But, of course, there's always something happening.  ;)
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1214 on: May 11, 2017, 06:41:26 PM »
What is happening in the Arctic now?
Let's see if I can do a gif....

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1215 on: May 11, 2017, 06:52:50 PM »
Eastern Canada and the Labrador sea has been hit by much warmer than normal air and melting has intensified from Hudson's bay to the Labrador sea. Snow is melting rapidly in north and eastern Canada. Cracks have appeared across the CAA. The ice arc leading to the Nares straight has broken up and ice is heading towards the Nares from north of Greenland.

Shifting Rossby wave patterns and low level winds have temporarily dispersed sea ice increasing the extent but melting has intensified on the Canadian side. The one piece of good news is that last winter's significantly heavier than normal snows have been slow to melt out across much of the Arctic, keeping the early spring cooler than it might have been.

If the models are correct we will see a much more rapid decline than normal in N hemi snow extent over the next 2 weeks. If the snow holds out, however, it will be good news for the sea ice.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1216 on: May 11, 2017, 07:10:55 PM »

It looks like most of the peripheral seas will see above average temperatures this coming week on climate reanalyzer. The Barents and Kara seas are the exception, they continue with the average/low temperatures that have dominated those areas for most of the spring. It's very different to last years melt season where the Atlantic side of the Arctic had very low sea ice extent.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1217 on: May 11, 2017, 09:52:29 PM »
(Let's try that again)

This is new...

Lincoln Sea. Yesterday an unbroken sheet. Today, cracked-up all the way down to Nares. Don't think We've ever seen it do that before, least of all in early May.
A follow-up to the break up at the Nares entrance. Despite the clouds, it is obviously getting progressively worse.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1218 on: May 12, 2017, 02:20:29 AM »
An attempt to track the incoming atmospheric moisture and energy transport in the Pacific quadrant by animating 36hrs to date while climbing through the altitude layers.
- We see the sea level pressure and surface level winds to start.
 - Then climb up through 1000,850,700,500,250 in three hour increments, with relative humidity and wind.
- Then close with only winds at 250 and 70 hpa 12 and 18km altitudes to better observe the interconnection of wind flows across the historic tropopause.
- And a couple of temperature at 70hpa, showing that the hottest place in the world is the nth pole, and the warmest the equator. The molecules up there are moving pretty fast compared to the ones you are breathing. Lots of downwelling longwave.

pity it seems too big. trying edited down version...
nope. Ok smaller. With MSLP and temps at 18km separate.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 03:21:23 AM by Hyperion »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1219 on: May 12, 2017, 02:49:30 AM »
Quote
pity it seems too big. trying edited down version...
Maybe you could Youtube it and post the link
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1220 on: May 12, 2017, 03:22:40 AM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

New ice forming in the many leads opening would add volume, added to all the volume being shunted into the Barents and Atlantic which hasn't melted, yet

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1221 on: May 12, 2017, 07:35:26 AM »

But, of course, there's always something happening.  ;)

5-day projections show a fairly significant low pressure system entering from the laptev that should bring rapid dispersal of the Barents pack.
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meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1222 on: May 12, 2017, 08:23:48 AM »
(Let's try that again)

This is new...

Lincoln Sea. Yesterday an unbroken sheet. Today, cracked-up all the way down to Nares. Don't think We've ever seen it do that before, least of all in early May.
A follow-up to the break up at the Nares entrance. Despite the clouds, it is obviously getting progressively worse.



When I pointed out this opening a week ago, the many "Experts" sent me to the Nares' thread.
Basic physics & common sense seems better guidance than peer- reviewed, paid-for-and-politically-filtered Articles.


epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1223 on: May 12, 2017, 08:54:44 AM »
(Let's try that again)

This is new...

Lincoln Sea. Yesterday an unbroken sheet. Today, cracked-up all the way down to Nares. Don't think We've ever seen it do that before, least of all in early May.
A follow-up to the break up at the Nares entrance. Despite the clouds, it is obviously getting progressively worse.



When I pointed out this opening a week ago, the many "Experts" sent me to the Nares' thread.
Basic physics & common sense seems better guidance than peer- reviewed, paid-for-and-politically-filtered Articles.

Science is necessarily pedantic.If it wasn't, it would be punditry ;)

...the flip-side is that, yes, sometimes it can make one sympathize, just a little, with Basil Fawlty...viz:





F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1224 on: May 12, 2017, 09:25:36 AM »
I did say "as far as extent is concerned" in my post. I believe that is called a caveat. It is also about only one year. Extent is also the only internally  consistent set of data for the entire satellite record since 1979.

Impossible ? The US ceebees have a saying "the difficult now, the impossible may take a little longer".
Internally consistent since 1979 - ok, but then 2017 is nothing ordinary in compare to 1979 i recon, right? Point is, you can't defend both "2017's ordinary" and "extent is the only consistent since 1979", i guess. One violates the other, in a way.

And ditto about caveat. I wasn't sure how you meant it, now i see there is nothing to worry about. Still, may be someone who'd read your post above wouldn't notice that caveat, you know, so i feel i did OK describing what kind of thing extent is one more time. Wouldn't hurt.


F. Tnioli, in reality sea ice area (which I think you were referring to) is also much higher than 2016.
But on the other hand, extent/area in early May is mostly peripheral areas and means less than during the summer.
Since CT area graph went belly up last year, i couldn't find any public source for ASI area produced by some or other well known research body. Can you please help with this? And yes, it sure would not surprise me if area's higher than 2016 for the same date; but it would surprise me very much if it'd be some ~700k km2 higher than 2016 - i.e. as much higher as is extent. So, how much higher it is based on data you got?
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 09:39:21 AM by F.Tnioli »
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oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1225 on: May 12, 2017, 10:01:57 AM »
Wipneus is tracking both "NSIDC area" and AMSR2 area. I'm away from my bookmarks right now.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1226 on: May 12, 2017, 10:35:00 AM »
When I pointed out this opening a week ago, the many "Experts" sent me to the Nares' thread.
Basic physics & common sense seems better guidance than peer- reviewed, paid-for-and-politically-filtered Articles.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg101527.html#msg101527
People have been showing us this since January, that's why people sent you to that thread... But Tigertown animation of its collapse is really pertinent to this thread. This opens now another venue of escape of (old) ice toward the Atlantic.
But I am not really sure how unusual this is overall, since I don't follow the Nares opening dates.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 10:49:05 AM by seaicesailor »

pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1227 on: May 12, 2017, 12:33:00 PM »
We are down to 6th lowest on IJIS now

If no record set this year I think its just a blip year

Once the next El nino takes shape it will rip the rest of the Arctic to bits

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1228 on: May 12, 2017, 12:46:11 PM »
The season just started and we declare it over? No patience here...

We are down to 6th lowest on IJIS now

If no record set this year I think its just a blip year

Once the next El nino takes shape it will rip the rest of the Arctic to bits

RikW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1229 on: May 12, 2017, 01:06:40 PM »
Assuming there is truth in the PIOMAS numbers, area numbers should start with a freefall in the next couple of weeks

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1230 on: May 12, 2017, 01:21:05 PM »
Agree, RikW.

F.Tnioli, you can check out Wipneus' graphs for both extent and area contributions from all the Arctic seas/regions at:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png


It can be seen that these are currently high for Barents Sea, Greenland Sea, Baffin/Newfoundland Bay.

  They are notably low for the Bering Sea.

   The graphs also show that the extent and volume minima are determined largely by only one of the graphs, namely, the Central Arctic Basin, as all the other seas/regions will have melted out, or nearly so, by the end of the melt season.

  Conversely, the Central Arctic Basin remains at essentially full extent and area until, typically, later this month, May.

  Those two observations essentially explain why the current values for extent and area may have little or no correlation with their values at the end of the melt season, as deviations from the usual values are driven mainly by:
 a) for end of season, the Central Arctic Basin; but
 b) up until mid-May, by all the peripheral seas, excluding the Central Arctic Basin.
 

  Before mid-May then, the Arctic sea ice volume is a much better indicator than the area or extent of where the ice will be at the end of the melt season.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 01:33:13 PM by slow wing »

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1231 on: May 12, 2017, 02:03:53 PM »
When I pointed out this opening a week ago, the many "Experts" sent me to the Nares' thread.
Basic physics & common sense seems better guidance than peer- reviewed, paid-for-and-politically-filtered Articles.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg101527.html#msg101527
People have been showing us this since January, that's why people sent you to that thread... But Tigertown animation of its collapse is really pertinent to this thread. This opens now another venue of escape of (old) ice toward the Atlantic.
But I am not really sure how unusual this is overall, since I don't follow the Nares opening dates.
Did some quick research about approx. breakup times, southern "arch" in Kane Basin unless noted otherwise:
2007 - No arches formed.
2008 - June 10th(?)
2009 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around June 30th.
2010 - July 10th
2011 - July 5th.
2012 - June 30th.
2013 - July 10th.
2014 - June 20th.
2015 - July 5th.
2016 - June 30th
2017 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around May 10th.

Yes, it's early.
(Cross-posted from the Nares thread)

BTW, the polynyas form each year south of the arch (whether it is northern or southern). They are not indicative of much, except of the almost-constant southbound flow along the strait.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1232 on: May 12, 2017, 02:33:27 PM »
Wipneus is tracking both "NSIDC area" and AMSR2 area. I'm away from my bookmarks right now.
AFAIK Wipneus is just one person (one amazing person, but still one). Please note how i mentioned "research body" in my request for public area data. This is no disrespect to Wipneus and his very impressive works, it's just me wishing for something truly Cryosphere-Today scale.

May be i ask for too much. Sorry.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1233 on: May 12, 2017, 03:50:36 PM »
Wipneus is tracking both "NSIDC area" and AMSR2 area. I'm away from my bookmarks right now.
AFAIK Wipneus is just one person (one amazing person, but still one). Please note how i mentioned "research body" in my request for public area data. This is no disrespect to Wipneus and his very impressive works, it's just me wishing for something truly Cryosphere-Today scale.

May be i ask for too much. Sorry.

since the data he's using are from such "bodies" i can't say where one could have a problem with the graphic results based on such data from a respected person who is know for delivering 99.9% accurate graphs and then immediately admits any minor error. i don't think you ask too much but i think we got already what you're asking for and then, often "bodies" are less efficient and more biased ( money sources and carrier thinking comes into play ) than a person who uses neutral data and has never shown any sign of "profiling neurosis" LOL

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1234 on: May 12, 2017, 03:58:35 PM »
If it'd be that simple, we'd see NSIDC and JAXA doing what CT did (i.e. public area data and graphs), themselves; but they don't (afaik), right? Heck, NSIDC has that very CT'ish "chARCTIC" extent graph nowadays, why not doing the same for area then? There is an answer to this question. Which i do not _know_. And i'll omit voicing any suspicions. Neven's around, he'd strike me dead if i'd go on with this, i bet. Neven, please have mercy on our souls! %)
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1235 on: May 12, 2017, 04:41:17 PM »
The season just started and we declare it over? No patience here...

We are down to 6th lowest on IJIS now

If no record set this year I think its just a blip year

Once the next El nino takes shape it will rip the rest of the Arctic to bits

Who said I declare it over. By no means

Im just surmising that if its a slow one next year and the years after the downward trend will continue apace

It could be a record breaker for all i know

im still stickin with 3.7m minimum based on ....nothing but to give me interest in the final minimum and see how close i got

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1236 on: May 12, 2017, 07:03:04 PM »
The season just started and we declare it over? No patience here...

We are down to 6th lowest on IJIS now

If no record set this year I think its just a blip year

Once the next El nino takes shape it will rip the rest of the Arctic to bits

Who said I declare it over. By no means

Im just surmising that if its a slow one next year and the years after the downward trend will continue apace

It could be a record breaker for all i know

im still stickin with 3.7m minimum based on ....nothing but to give me interest in the final minimum and see how close i got

just remember the very late and very high max in 2012 and what came thereafter. it's totally irrelevant what happens during a week or two, what counts are things like weather, starting point and other key factors that make up for the end-result. the amount of ice currently totals way less than in any of those years that were lower at the same day of the year, hence if we have only 60% ice left and loose 80% of what we lost then, we still end up with less ice at the end.

anyways, it's has to be remembered that with less ice there is less ice to lose. i'm sure that once we are heading towards zero, there will be people mentioning that in the year 19xx we lost 3 times more ice in a given period LOL, even though that would mean a negative number mathematically once that moment has come.

it's always bad and very common unfortunately to look at things detached from the systemic whole. this is about melting season and neither weekly, daily nor extent and energy wise it's the total amount of ice that counts and that is way below anything before (volume) no matter what other indicators are showing at one given moment. right now we have a glass full of crush ice which does not mean that we have more ice to melt than if we had 3 solid ice-cubes in the very same cup, on the opposite.

dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1237 on: May 12, 2017, 07:09:38 PM »
Relatively large jump in SST compared to yesterday (that area has been around -1.2C), with more heat on the way it'll be interesting to see if it gets any worse.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-94.59,89.02,826/loc=171.724,70.557

jai mitchell

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Haiku of Past Futures
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are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1239 on: May 12, 2017, 09:22:43 PM »
Seems like HP-dominated weather will continue for another 10 days on the North American side. The strong sunlight which now is 24/7 in the Arctic should be able to do its job onto the thin ice over Chukchi and ESS over those days. Just look at the holes around Wrangels Island.

And, expect more cracks in Beaufort in a few days or so as southerlies moves in there.


oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1240 on: May 12, 2017, 09:36:30 PM »
If it'd be that simple, we'd see NSIDC and JAXA doing what CT did (i.e. public area data and graphs), themselves; but they don't (afaik), right? Heck, NSIDC has that very CT'ish "chARCTIC" extent graph nowadays, why not doing the same for area then? There is an answer to this question. Which i do not _know_. And i'll omit voicing any suspicions. Neven's around, he'd strike me dead if i'd go on with this, i bet. Neven, please have mercy on our souls! %)
F. Tnioli, NSIDC is publishing sea ice extent and concentration, from which anybody can calculate sea ice area "CT style". But the amazing Wipneus is doing everyone the service of this calculation and the graphs. Here is his post from today in another thread:
Time for an update concerning sea ice area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration compared with extent (same as calculated by NSIDC).

While extent is 5th lowest (~690k higher than 2016), area has dropped to #10, more than 1 Million higher than 2016.

Here are the rankings for 11th May:

extent NH
datum: -05-11
2005-05-11 13.119149
2003-05-11 13.056350
2011-05-11 12.968637
2007-05-11 12.940884
2014-05-11 12.876776
2017-05-11 12.830311
2015-05-11 12.757955
2004-05-11 12.709222
2006-05-11 12.709040
2016-05-11 12.143364

area NH
2017-05-11 11.467165
2007-05-11 11.449676
2003-05-11 11.447578
2004-05-11 11.381959
2014-05-11 11.324955
2010-05-11 11.241607
2011-05-11 11.145334
2015-05-11 11.144258
2006-05-11 11.007650
2016-05-11 10.454304
Of course if you prefer to be very cautious you can download the relevant files from NSIDC and perform the calculation yourself. And yes it would be nice of NSIDC to post it themselves in calculated form and in graph form after CT disappeared, but government bodies move slowly and not always according to user input.

Bottom line, 2017 is one million km2 of sea ice area more than 2016 in the same date, according to NSIDC data. (But according to PIOMAS, this ice is much thinner)

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1241 on: May 12, 2017, 09:57:05 PM »
The Atmosphere is the weather.  The Ocean is the climate.  It's too early to tell, but I think this is the year we actually see climate change as weather.  The collapse of Nares was kinda a BIG HINT.

WACC is in our future, but I think Cold Continent is only in comparison, and not some sort of real cold.


Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1242 on: May 13, 2017, 12:45:19 AM »
I've only seen a spring river breakup once, but I remember it as both fast and dramatic.  Is it ok for me to consider the Nares Strait a river?

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1243 on: May 13, 2017, 12:55:25 AM »

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO

How long have we been "measuring" thickness? Since 1979 or sometime thereafter? I thought it wasn't until about 10-15 years ago. If so, extent is the only metric we have to compare this year with years for which we have no thickness data. If no one was paying attention it's possible the much larger extents in the 1980s coincided with thin more spread out ice.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1244 on: May 13, 2017, 01:29:15 AM »
Looks like the MacKenzie River is starting to flow.

It is indeed, albeit a few days later than last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Mackenzie-Flow

Last year's numbers are still provisional, and will almost certainly be revised downwards ultimately.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1245 on: May 13, 2017, 03:42:40 AM »
The first animation is a comparison of the Atlantic side of the Arctic on May 11 2016 vs May 11 2017.
The second one is the same but for the Pacific side.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1246 on: May 13, 2017, 05:33:03 AM »
I also was just looking over the Bering/Chukchi area. You can see a big difference between the first(left) of May, 2017 and the twelfth(right) of May, 2017.
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S.Pansa

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1247 on: May 13, 2017, 07:43:12 AM »
The HP domination mentioned above by Lord M Vader wil -  according to GFS and ClimateReanalyzer - feature an interesting side show: The great snow cover massacre. The last days of a polar snow flake.

A heartbreaker.  :'(

Should get the melt season finally going methinks. Fist image 12th May, second image 20th (best compared in new tab)

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1248 on: May 13, 2017, 07:58:48 AM »
Same Scene, different source, TOPAZ4 + a comparison with 2016 & 2012

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1249 on: May 13, 2017, 09:03:12 AM »
Same Scene, different source, TOPAZ4 + a comparison with 2016 & 2012
Taken as an assemblage, I'd say they also portend the appearance of extensive melt ponds on the Pacific side, from the Amundsen Gulf all the way to the ESS.

Interesting yet disturbing to see if it pans out.
This space for Rent.