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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2850 on: July 14, 2017, 11:14:14 PM »
<snip; find some other thread for these long-winded posts; I've copied your text, PM me if you want it; N.> Dropped here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1364.0.html
« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 12:12:06 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2851 on: July 15, 2017, 01:18:37 AM »
I wonder what a 'fluid dynamics' knowledgeable person would say about those pretty swirls, and especially their opinion about any vertical mixing associated with them.

It was Lewis Fry Richardson who wrote...

Big whorls have little whorls
Which feed on their velocity,
And little whorls have lesser whorls
And so on to viscosity.


... All this shite counts as extent. But not for long.

A wonderfully apt description. I was going to say something along the lines of "you took the words out of my mouth", but, given the context, I think I'll avoid that particular expression.

Shown below is a zoomed snapshot from NSIDC's 5-day Charctic as at 13th July. The date range covered is basically from  the 6th to 20th.

As mentioned upthread, the NSIDC daily value has dropped 516k in the last 3 days. However, it only dropped 131k over the previous 3 days. That means two of those "slow" days are still incorporated in the Charctic value for the 13th. Consequently, it is reasonable to expect that the gradient may well steepen - at least for the next couple of days.



subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2852 on: July 15, 2017, 02:30:44 AM »
Current DMI and NOAA SST anomaly charts. They are different in specifics but the general theme is the same - a lot of warmer water all around, especially on the Pacific side. NOAA's version has been getting particularly angry looking recently.

Still a few more weeks of serious insolation to crank those temps higher, and the remaining ice will be surrounded by a killing field,( as well as storm driver and source of anomalous snowfalls later on)

AS a note, at some point the link between NH snow extent and ice pack extent must be severed if a warmer Arctic continues driving anomalously high snowfalls in Siberia and Canada. At some point there will be icefree Ocean but still a lot of snow on land

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2853 on: July 15, 2017, 02:49:23 AM »


It was Lewis Fry Richardson who wrote...

Big whorls have little whorls
Which feed on their velocity,
And little whorls have lesser whorls
And so on to viscosity.


... All this shite counts as extent. But not for long.

[/quote]

Inspiring bill. Felt drawn to rap out another verse to follow. Lets honour the man with a chain limerick . Whos next?

Big whorls have little whorls
Which feed on their velocity,
And little whorls have lesser whorls
And so on to viscosity.


The vortex gods be hard to read,
  sometimes fair whorlets, they ears ring.
With chaos Devas, then they may feed,
 hence from ripples near, earthchange springs.

« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 02:55:41 AM by Hyperion »
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Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2854 on: July 15, 2017, 02:54:25 AM »
The first attachment is from July 10 to July 14 of 2016. The second attachment the same dates but for 2017. They are both Nullschool Temp at 850 hPa. It looks warmer in 2016. 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2855 on: July 15, 2017, 03:21:42 AM »
On the flip side, the Pacific side SSTA's seem warmer in 2017. The Atlantic side seem cooler in 2017 but somehow more ominous.
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2856 on: July 15, 2017, 03:52:08 AM »
The first attachment is from July 10 to July 14 of 2016. The second attachment the same dates but for 2017. They are both Nullschool Temp at 850 hPa. It looks warmer in 2016.

Perhaps it was warmer in 2016. That could be more incoming heat, or the cooling effect of melting ice this year. IMHO theres not a big difference climatically between 2016 and this year. but the preconditioning  of last year prevented a lot of heat loss from the ocean over winter and left us with a slush pack that is an efficient cooler and condenser in the global atmospheric circulation system at the expense of basin wide exposure rather than mostly just the periphery exposed to melting with weather system exclusion resulting as our past experience is limited to .

Heres the Jet stream at 250hpa comparison between 2016 and 2017.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2857 on: July 15, 2017, 04:52:37 AM »
11th-14th
CLICK IMAGE

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2858 on: July 15, 2017, 09:50:39 AM »
It was Lewis Fry Richardson who wrote...

Big whorls have little whorls
Which feed on their velocity,
And little whorls have lesser whorls
And so on to viscosity.


... Lets honour the man with a chain limerick . Whos next? ...


Large floes break into lesser floes
Which increases their perimeter
It's like someone's taken the Arctic ice
And f***ed it with a scimitar


Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2859 on: July 15, 2017, 09:53:44 AM »
The Atlantic side seem cooler in 2017 but somehow more ominous.

The Atlantic side had pretty cool weather for the last weeks or even months. It's just starting to warm up now. Therefore those spotty areas. In two weeks the picture could have changed completely in the sense that the Atlantic side could become as red as it was in 2016.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 04:41:07 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2860 on: July 15, 2017, 10:26:50 AM »
On the flip side, the Pacific side SSTA's seem warmer in 2017. The Atlantic side seem cooler in 2017 but somehow more ominous.
Is it not significant that 2017 seems much warmer off the NW Territories and in Canada, and the western CAA? There seems to be a pincer-move developing for remaining MYI, if the comments about increasing Atlantic SST are borne out.
Sic transit gloria mundi

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2861 on: July 15, 2017, 11:09:48 AM »
WTF I keep having issues uploading attachments

I'll try again

July 10-14, Alaska at bottom center.
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2862 on: July 15, 2017, 03:13:14 PM »
NSIDC SIE Daily
x 106 km2

2017,    07,  12,      8.274
2017,    07,  13,      8.075
2017,    07,  14,      7.930

Down another 145k km2

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2863 on: July 15, 2017, 03:58:05 PM »
NSIDC SIE Daily
x 106 km2

2017,    07,  12,      8.274
2017,    07,  13,      8.075
2017,    07,  14,      7.930

Down another 145k km2

That's more than a 270 k drop in 3 days.

I guess the probablistic models need to be updated with July's extent drops, to get us closer to Reality for the Minimum.

Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2864 on: July 15, 2017, 04:31:58 PM »
Quote
That's more than a 270 k drop in 3 days.
Just to correct, it's the 344 k drop in 2 days, and 0,5 mln drop in 3 days

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2865 on: July 15, 2017, 05:36:41 PM »
Quote
That's more than a 270 k drop in 3 days.
Just to correct, it's the 344 k drop in 2 days, and 0,5 mln drop in 3 days

Where do You get that 0, 5 M from?
344 k in 3 days.
With that pace, for the Remainder 60 Days:
20 x 344= 6, 88 M Loss is expected,
which should leave us with
1, 050 M km2.

Voila, there's that Blue Ocean Event.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2866 on: July 15, 2017, 06:08:08 PM »
Ok. Doc, think for a minute,

2017,    07,  12,      8.274        starting point or Zero
2017,    07,  13,      8.075        one day or 24 hours later
2017,    07,  14,      7.930        two days or forty eight hours


meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2867 on: July 15, 2017, 06:26:29 PM »
Ok. Doc, think for a minute,

2017,    07,  12,      8.274        starting point or Zero
2017,    07,  13,      8.075        one day or 24 hours later
2017,    07,  14,      7.930        two days or forty eight hours

Ok & another 145 k drop as of today?

In that Case, prepare for a Blue Ocean Event.
Or Nuclear Winter & global (actually, only Northern Hemisphere) Nuclear War.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2868 on: July 15, 2017, 06:45:03 PM »

Voila, there's that Blue Ocean Event.

only that this rate is not realistic due to lessening insolation and cooling of the high arctic starting in mid/end august already, et voilà, there goes the blue ocean event, perhaps next year ;)

but then however it will be, who knows really, i don't, hence we can only talk about likeliness/probabilities, based on earlier years which may as well mean nothing this or in future years, let's see ;)

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2869 on: July 15, 2017, 06:45:23 PM »
It looks like the Atlantic front is really starting to melt now, whether by direct insolation or SST's, not to mention the warm surface breeze coming up to meet the ice edge.

Forest Dweller

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2870 on: July 15, 2017, 07:16:10 PM »
I guess for the sake of being complete regarding the above posts, the Nullschool SSTA of today belongs here too.
Such a cool tool it is.
I used to make similar interactive apps but this one takes the cake.
The "cold blob" south of Greenland and Gulfstream are doing interesting stuff so i thought i'd include some of that too.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2871 on: July 15, 2017, 08:49:41 PM »
I wonder how much of all that solar heat accumulated at Beaufort-Chukchi-ESS is actually melting ice. With the current conditions, I think very little. There is no strong air advection to bring it over it, no strong storm to disperse ice on these seas. But well, that could change anytime.
Chukchi sea is different, as has been noted one can see some swirls get very far into the pack or what has been calked the "soup" or the "rubble" north of Chukchi and ESS.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2872 on: July 15, 2017, 08:51:04 PM »
It looks like the Atlantic front is really starting to melt now, whether by direct insolation or SST's, not to mention the warm surface breeze coming up to meet the ice edge.
Being just pushed too.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2873 on: July 15, 2017, 10:23:09 PM »
So what's our take?

Is it better that the open water gets no ice drifted into it, and so impacts our Autumns WACCy weather, or spend that energy on melting ice drifted into it?

I spent a good number of years worried about losing the ice and being ignorant to the open water that we were seeing over ever greater areas ever earlier in the season?

I'm now drifting into thinking that this was wrong esp, after what we have seen of messed up weather this past 2 winters?

I think I'd rather have the ice all melted and all the energy early open water absorbed being spent before it compounds another miserable year for folk around the hemisphere from WACCy weather?
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Cook

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2874 on: July 15, 2017, 10:42:02 PM »
I think I'd rather have the ice all melted and all the energy early open water absorbed being spent before it compounds another miserable year for folk around the hemisphere from WACCy weather?

I suspect that the more ice you remove the more abnormal, waccy if you like weather you will observe.

Less ice = a warmer arctic and a weaker more meandering jet stream. It also means more moisture in the air and more precipitation.

Let us not forget that H2O is a powerful greenhouse gas. Larger open areas of water and warmer temperatures = more humidity and therefore warmer temperatures.

So, if we want weather we are used to, then we should be hoping for more ice and less open water.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2875 on: July 15, 2017, 11:26:56 PM »
When the ice goes arrive waves, mixing of top fresh layer, delayed freezing is the result, better to have ice and warm water than mix them. But this is somewhat OT.

NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2876 on: July 16, 2017, 12:47:12 AM »
In that Case, prepare for a Blue Ocean Event.

It's unlikely that this rate will continue.  It is only in extent and this is the 15% - 30% melting out or compacting into the CAB.

More interesting will be what happens come the start of August when the easy peripheral ice is gone and the CAB is under fire.
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2877 on: July 16, 2017, 05:13:36 AM »
Some glimpses Through the clouds on the European front. Gif rotates anti-clockwise thru green selections on keymap from first at 85-87 nth polewards of FJL. click to animate.
Then a wide shot of the massive ice free zone opened off the Kara sea. Pink rectangle in the key.

I'm amazed at how despite the compacting offshore winds these regions seem to have much bigger spaces between the floes and lots more of it slush free dark ocean than a few days ago.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2878 on: July 16, 2017, 05:29:20 AM »
 Hyperion,
Quote
Then a wide shot of the massive ice free zone opened off the Kara sea. Pink rectangle in the key.
Don't you mean off the Laptev? I agree about it being massive.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2879 on: July 16, 2017, 09:13:48 AM »
Always interesting to compare 10-day difference (Jul 05 - Jul 15). Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2880 on: July 16, 2017, 09:54:01 AM »
Everywhere extent is growing is melting. everywhere area is shrinking is melting.  Everywhere there are heavy clouds... it's melting.

We are beyond screwed.

...Heck, we can't even see screwed from where we are.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2881 on: July 16, 2017, 10:20:54 AM »
At this rate the Northern Sea Route could be open before the month is out.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2882 on: July 16, 2017, 11:21:01 AM »
I think the heat is on now on the pacific side of the CAB. This doesn't look like a "mood" for me of the Bremen graph, there's too much green already.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 12:00:36 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2883 on: July 16, 2017, 12:24:14 PM »
I find interesting that despite what seems like compaction on the Beaufort frontal features, the concentration behind the front is dropping.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2884 on: July 16, 2017, 01:17:59 PM »
I think the heat is on now on the pacific side of the CAB. This doesn't look like a "mood" for me of the Bremen graph, there's too much green already.

No, this is real, Uni Hamburg AMSR2 shows it too. There's a lot of melting potential there, and given the 'piggy bank' ice in the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and Baffin Bay, I'm expecting the series of JAXA century breaks to continue for a while longer.

Here's a comparison of DMI SST anomalies for 2012 (left), 2016 (middle) and 2017 (right) for July 15th. I would say that 2017 is well ahead of 2012 on the Pacific side, slightly behind on the Atlantic, and I'm somewhat surprised that no red still hasn't shown up in the Laptev Sea this year. The story for 2017 vs 2016 is the same, except that 2016's lead on the Atlantic side was much larger. But given the current forecast, with persistent high pressure on the Siberian side of the Arctic, 2017 might still catch up.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2885 on: July 16, 2017, 01:44:59 PM »
I'm surprised that at that date in 2012 the ESS was still completely covered by ice! The shape and contours of 2017 look so common, I didn't suspect such an advantage in that region compared to a record year. What I call the "butterfly" in many years appeared in more or less the same shape. But it seems that it happened rather in August than in July. If we direct our attention away from the peripheral ice – which IMO will melt away anyway, even if it's above average – and we concentrate of the central area of the ice, the butterfly, then I dare to say that this year is well ahead compared to most of the previous years.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2886 on: July 16, 2017, 02:16:20 PM »
I think the heat is on now on the pacific side of the CAB. This doesn't look like a "mood" for me of the Bremen graph, there's too much green already.

No, this is real, Uni Hamburg AMSR2 shows it too. There's a lot of melting potential there, and given the 'piggy bank' ice in the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and Baffin Bay, I'm expecting the series of JAXA century breaks to continue for a while longer.

Here's a comparison of DMI SST anomalies for 2012 (left), 2016 (middle) and 2017 (right) for July 15th. I would say that 2017 is well ahead of 2012 on the Pacific side, slightly behind on the Atlantic, and I'm somewhat surprised that no red still hasn't shown up in the Laptev Sea this year. The story for 2017 vs 2016 is the same, except that 2016's lead on the Atlantic side was much larger. But given the current forecast, with persistent high pressure on the Siberian side of the Arctic, 2017 might still catch up.

My impression that there is some sort of conservatism in how data is assimilated to the DMI model as compared to NOAA. There seemed to be an initial lag in temps earlier in the the other open areas, beaufort, ESS etc as compared to the NOAA chart before catching up. NOAA is now showing warmer than 0C in parts of the Laptev bite. Perhaps DMI will show a different reading soon. Kara on DMI showed a negatory anomaly not long ago, now bright red.  On the other hand NOAA's model just seems to make stuff up in places, like the 16C it shows near Svalbard

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2887 on: July 16, 2017, 04:33:25 PM »
At this rate the Northern Sea Route could be open before the month is out.

My guess, on the blog, was NSR and NW passage, potentially open, in the next 3 weeks.  That was on Friday.

I think the NW passage is also looking vulnerable but is suffering the same coolness the rest of the Atlantic side is.

Little to do but wait, the heat is now gobbling up the periphery, especially where it's just a thin layer on top.

On Chartic, it looks like 2017 will drop away from 2016, solidly, in two to three days.  It should crash through 2011 around the beginning of August.

Then, I'd say, the Arctic ice balance is in the lap of the weather.
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guygee

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2888 on: July 16, 2017, 04:44:40 PM »
"Make stuff up" sounds rather harsh, but if I understand correctly NOAA SST methodology does add climatology to older data where current data is missing, overview here: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/description.shtml

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2889 on: July 16, 2017, 06:30:34 PM »
NOAA has different methods for determining sea surface temperatures from satellite, buoy and ship observations. The model used for the "Polar" NCEP maps is designed to be responsive to rapid changes in SST. Other models show less short term variability. The "Polar" color scheme amplifies small differences above or below normal while playing down huge anomalies.

SST anomaly maps have different 30 year baselines so maps with older baselines generally have larger anomalies.

I find looking at the SST maps is helpful to understand the anomaly maps. It certainly helps understand what's happening in the north Atlantic and sub polar seas. The anomaly maps can be confusing by themselves.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2890 on: July 16, 2017, 08:12:54 PM »
I think the heat is on now on the pacific side of the CAB. This doesn't look like a "mood" for me of the Bremen graph, there's too much green already.

No, this is real, Uni Hamburg AMSR2 shows it too. There's a lot of melting potential there, and given the 'piggy bank' ice in the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and Baffin Bay, I'm expecting the series of JAXA century breaks to continue for a while longer.
<snip>
I'm expecting them to become ubuquitous.

To my point, I'm going to go back to the quality of the ice.  I've got three images below.  The first two of are the NE corner of the Barentzs, a month apart - May 26 and June 26.

The last is a section of the CAB which has been previously highlighted, approximately the same area, today.

Considering the similarity between this and the May 26th Barentzs ice, I will be very surprised if much of this doesn't disappear by August 15th.

This kind of ice quality is very common across easily half of the remaining CAB extent.  Unless we get weather on a par with 2013 and 2014, I think the 2012 records are still very much in play.

The ice we have now simply is not the same as anything like previous years.  The closest would be 2013. 

We dodged a bullet then.  Unfortunately global weather circulation does not appear to be as favorable to us this year as it was then.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2891 on: July 16, 2017, 08:32:12 PM »
@jdallen

an understandable point of view which probably won't be totally off but the there are few things
to consider:

a) it's colder in the cab than in the barnetz

b) there is less insolation in the cab than in the barentz

c) there is less open water (wave action and energy) in the cab than in the barentz

d) there is less heat close by, be it water bound or in the air

e) the surrounding ice is more mass than further south.

all this will make it not THAT easy and not THAT certain but still there will be some huge holes in the ice which were not that many and smaller in the past, hence i share you general direction of thinking, just thought to mention that the cab and the barentz cannot really be compared when it comes to how similar and/or same ice patterns evolve over time, especially since we are looking at different moments in the season, around solstice and quite a bit after solstice and further north for example etc.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2892 on: July 16, 2017, 08:32:43 PM »
Another illustration.  See below the CAB just north of the gap between FJL and Svalbard.

Compare the ice quality here to the northern Kara sea on June 30th.

Admittedly, the Kara was under more insolation pressure, but given a month of similar weather, the CAB region shown here *will* turn into just so much soup.

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jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2893 on: July 16, 2017, 08:48:40 PM »
@jdallen

an understandable point of view which probably won't be totally off but the there are few things
to consider:

a) it's colder in the cab than in the barnetz

b) there is less insolation in the cab than in the barentz

c) there is less open water (wave action and energy) in the cab than in the barentz

d) there is less heat close by, be it water bound or in the air

e) the surrounding ice is more mass than further south.

Thank you for your points.

I'm aware of the differences regionally.

I'd disagree that "heat near by" really makes a signficant difference except by way of facilitating the creation of melt ponds.  Right now that's moot in my opinion.

What is relevant is ocean heat and insolation.  To a lesser degree rainfall may come into play, but still is a lower reservior of heat that the other two factors.

I will agree that intruding Atlantic water into the Barentzs provides significant heat, and that insolation is declining.  However, we have 8 weeks left in the melt season, and the lions share of that work in August will be bottom rather than top melt.

I'll add that the region I'm considering is adjacent to the Barentzs and is subject to much the same forces the Barentzs is.

On the Pacific side, the situation is actually much more dire, much is at lower latitude will be getting more insolation for longer longer.

Lastly, I think you are underestimating the potential for storms to stir up wave action inside of the CAB.  There is nothing like the contiguous stretches of ice we saw in previous years.  It is much more like 2013, that by the end did resemble a bowl of ice cubes.  The thing that saved us that year was persistent cloudiness *and* virtually stagnant airflow.  That's not been the case this year. Those gaps between blocks are measured in 10's of KM, which is far and away enough to cause 1-2M swells given even a modest 20-30KPH surface wind.  Those swells would be both very destructive to the relatively weak frangible ice we have, *and* the ability of that wind to move both water and ice around will prompt ekman pumping bringing up heat from depth far more easily than in the past.

We will need better weather than we've been getting to save the ice.

If we get a GAC as we did in 2012, I think the results this year would be far more dire.  I will be watching the coming hurricane season with intense interest.
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stackmaster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2894 on: July 16, 2017, 08:56:13 PM »
Looks like 3,000km or more of fast ice just broke free of NE Greenland by the polynya.
https://go.nasa.gov/2uoILzQ
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 09:05:48 PM by stackmaster »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2895 on: July 16, 2017, 09:07:25 PM »
@jdallen

sure, as to the importance we subjectively give to various factors it's totally ok that there are some differences in assessment :-)

i think the things more or less are on the table and now we shall wait and see how it goes, interesting and always good to learn other users views and opinions, all this adds to everyone's learning curve in one or another way, thanks for sharing yours  8)

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2896 on: July 16, 2017, 09:43:00 PM »
Here's a comparison of DMI SST anomalies for 2012 (left), 2016 (middle) and 2017 (right) for July 15th. I would say that 2017 is well ahead of 2012 on the Pacific side, slightly behind on the Atlantic, and I'm somewhat surprised that no red still hasn't shown up in the Laptev Sea this year. The story for 2017 vs 2016 is the same, except that 2016's lead on the Atlantic side was much larger. But given the current forecast, with persistent high pressure on the Siberian side of the Arctic, 2017 might still catch up.
Hi Neven, did you have those images saved, or is there a way on the site to get the image for 2016? (high quality)
thanks.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2897 on: July 16, 2017, 10:02:51 PM »
Hi Neven, did you have those images saved, or is there a way on the site to get the image for 2016? (high quality)
thanks.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

Some I have saved, others I have retrieved from ASI updates over the years on the blog.

I like DMI SST maps, because they're quite detailed and make it possible to compare with other years.
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2898 on: July 16, 2017, 10:21:50 PM »
The forecasts keep shifting, which is why I haven't posted them recently. One thing that keeps coming back is high pressure on the Siberian side of the Arctic. I can't remember high pressure being so dominant over there (although I'm sure it's happened more often over the last 10 years, I just don't remember it). Usually that's where cyclones dominate.

But here's today's 12Z ECMWF forecast (Tropical Tidbits) for the coming six days. The high over the Beaufort Sea is said to disappear on D3, and high pressure over the Siberian Seas should start to diminish 1-2 days later, with low pressure dominating much of the CAB.

But this forecast could change again tomorrow morning. Either way, high pressure over Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Kara is going to mean bye-bye for a lot of ice.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2899 on: July 16, 2017, 10:29:09 PM »
For what it's worth, this animation more or less shows the difference in extent for 2016 and 17 for this day (from Polar Portal) A bit rough, but, ie. 2016 extent that 2017 does not have, and 2017 extent that 2016 did not have.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 03:17:06 AM by Thomas Barlow »