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jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3150 on: July 25, 2017, 05:37:23 PM »
Mostly clear view of the Atlantic side today and wow look at those holes opening up!
Aside from embedded MY I, most of that extent finished the freeze under 1.75M as I recall.  I expected the holes and am glad there aren't more.

More generally, I'm anticipating a reestablishment of the "Atlantic melt front" we've seen from NE Greenland running north of Svalbard and FJL, opening up a couple 100KM into the CAB proper.  I expect all the peripheral seas to melt out almost entirely.  In short, I think the end of the year will see the ice circling the wagons in the CAB at the finish, somewhere close to or slightly below 2007/2011/2016.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3151 on: July 25, 2017, 07:15:01 PM »
August 1 2016 on top.
Today, July 25, 2017 on the bottom.
(north of Greenland)

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3152 on: July 25, 2017, 07:44:20 PM »
Mostly clear view of the Atlantic side today and wow look at those holes opening up!
Almost as bad as the same dates in 2013!

Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3153 on: July 25, 2017, 08:32:32 PM »
August 1 2016 on top.
Today, July 25, 2017 on the bottom.
(north of Greenland)

Of particular note is the fjord.  Ice free in 2016 yet still frozen in 2017.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3154 on: July 25, 2017, 08:37:28 PM »
The hole near North Pole should be FYI, but the rest of Atlantic side supposed to have more ice than 2012/2016. Open water appears where PIOMAS modeled 2-4m thickness ice. Seems warm currents near Svalbard have destroyed much MYI

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3155 on: July 25, 2017, 08:53:32 PM »
Remember that PIOMAS graphics shows average ice thickness, though it models a distribution in each grid cell. Actual measurements a few months ago did indeed show 3 thick ice in the Lincoln Sea, so it was no mistake back then. In addition, some of the thick ice has been exported to Nares and Fram. So it is not impossible to have holes in the middle of this area. The rest of the ice could still be quite thick. I have no clue about current thickness, but the 2D evidence does not necessarily disprove PIOMAS.

Steven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3156 on: July 25, 2017, 09:33:10 PM »
Latest weekly MODIS 7-day composite image from Environment Canada:

Latest one:



Comparison of the 5 years 2013-2017:


Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3157 on: July 25, 2017, 11:43:41 PM »
When it comes to the 2017 melting season my main question is if we are going to have a repeat of the 1016 freezing season.  That is, does this melting season really end in September?

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3158 on: July 26, 2017, 12:28:01 AM »
August 1 2016 on top.
Today, July 25, 2017 on the bottom.
(north of Greenland)
Of particular note is the fjord.  Ice free in 2016 yet still frozen in 2017.
Perhaps the difference in dates creates that artifact. Wait a week until Aug. 1, the date of the 2016 image.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 04:54:30 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3159 on: July 26, 2017, 04:43:09 AM »
This animation shows only peripheral ice (in black), comparing 2012 and 2017, which, apart from some left over in the CAA, will likely disappear in the next few weeks, affecting volume and extent graphs more than may be being predicted. In other words, the stuff that is most likely to disappear, is the most important part right now as to how it affects extent and volume in the coming weeks. The Pacific side, with extra ice from 2012, may not make up the difference enough.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 03:33:44 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3160 on: July 26, 2017, 04:54:42 AM »
Things have been kind of quite lately in the Arctic. Really not that bad of a year. Not much momentum, the melt season seeming to just fizzle out. Or is it just being a little sneakier this year.
21st-25th CLICK IMAGE
« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 05:05:16 AM by Tigertown »

epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3161 on: July 26, 2017, 08:50:11 AM »
Mostly clear view of the Atlantic side today and wow look at those holes opening up!
Almost as bad as the same dates in 2013!

I sound like a broken record on this... but you've got to look harder. Viz:   (2017 is on top, 2013 below...)

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3162 on: July 26, 2017, 09:45:44 AM »
From SIPN July report, figure 9 :



I wonder how much that 'dipole' setup contributed to the Beaufort Gyre and ice compaction on the Pacific side and ice dispersion on the Atlantic side between halfway June and halfway July.
Quote
The extended range forecast from NOAA/CPC for the end of July 2017 continues a low pressure pattern over the central Arctic (See image, here), suggesting a continuation of only modest sea ice melt in coming weeks.
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/july

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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3163 on: July 26, 2017, 09:49:04 AM »
Things have been kind of quite lately in the Arctic. Really not that bad of a year. Not much momentum, the melt season seeming to just fizzle out. Or is it just being a little sneakier this year.
21st-25th CLICK IMAGE


GFS predicts a dipole setting up in a day or so with highs returning to the Beaufort, and the PAC drawing in some deeper fast moving lows from about 100hrs. As Pavel noted the weather has been driving the periphery outward toward Russia etc, whereas I can't help think that compaction and consolidation would be better for ice preservation despite the big extent drops that would imply. And there is that monster cyclone developing east of Japan.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3164 on: July 26, 2017, 10:33:07 AM »
Things have been kind of quite lately in the Arctic. Really not that bad of a year. Not much momentum, the melt season seeming to just fizzle out. Or is it just being a little sneakier this year.

Funny. I'm planning the same animation, but from exactly the opposite point of view (and therefore I am waiting a couple of days longer). No fizzle out but sneakyness with a bang. I feel the state of the ice is worsening at an accelerated pace and the atlantic side today entered a 2013 lookalike-contest. I know time is running out this season, so maybe we won't see a catastrophic outcome, but it's all far from over.
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3165 on: July 26, 2017, 10:43:08 AM »
Greenland seems to be losing a lot of sea ice this year. Also the Atlantic side of NP becoming very thin. Things could get interesting yet.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3166 on: July 26, 2017, 10:48:55 AM »
Ground surface temps seem extreme. Permafrost much there?


Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3167 on: July 26, 2017, 12:33:07 PM »
Things have been kind of quite lately in the Arctic. Really not that bad of a year. Not much momentum, the melt season seeming to just fizzle out. Or is it just being a little sneakier this year.

Funny. I'm planning the same animation, but from exactly the opposite point of view (and therefore I am waiting a couple of days longer). No fizzle out but sneakyness with a bang. I feel the state of the ice is worsening at an accelerated pace and the atlantic side today entered a 2013 lookalike-contest. I know time is running out this season, so maybe we won't see a catastrophic outcome, but it's all far from over.
Termites come to mind where I live. They eat your wood-frame home out from under you before you know what is happening. By the time anything goes bang, it is usually about too late.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3168 on: July 26, 2017, 12:40:00 PM »
I sound like a broken record on this... but you've got to look harder.

Might I suggest you look harder at 2013, if you don't comprehend the point Peter is making?

See A-Team's enhanced image from July 6th 2013 once again for example?

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meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3169 on: July 26, 2017, 02:01:29 PM »
This Section (CAB) looks very prone to melt- out (or flush- out) for me.
Something, that has never- ever happened in the last couple Million Years.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3170 on: July 26, 2017, 02:17:37 PM »
This Section (CAB) looks very prone to melt- out (or flush- out) for me.
Something, that has never- ever happened in the last couple Million Years.

The Eemian took place around 120K years ago, so let's not exaggerate.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3171 on: July 26, 2017, 02:46:24 PM »
The Eemian took place around 120K years ago, so let's not exaggerate.

And 2014 was 3 years ago, if my arithmetic is correct:
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12Patrick

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3172 on: July 26, 2017, 02:57:36 PM »
Virtually ALL the 2 meter arctic sea ice will be gone next month. No use reporting on the 3,4 and 5 meter sea ice anymore as it is effectively gone now... Now the question is how thin does the remaining ice get?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3173 on: July 26, 2017, 06:47:47 PM »
Termites come to mind where I live. They eat your wood-frame home out from under you before you know what is happening. By the time anything goes bang, it is usually about too late.

o love that one, great analogy

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3174 on: July 26, 2017, 07:02:47 PM »
This Section (CAB) looks very prone to melt- out (or flush- out) for me.
Something, that has never- ever happened in the last couple Million Years.

The Eemian took place around 120K years ago, so let's not exaggerate.

The early and middle Holocene was 6-10,000 years before present

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004162#

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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3175 on: July 26, 2017, 08:01:00 PM »
Wanted to thank seaicesailor for "going out on a limb" in suggesting that we could see a normal refreeze season and a kind of recovery to the ice. I know some of us, including myself, get passionate about conveying the rapidly changing aspects of our climate, but that passion should not cloud my capacity to reason clearly and debate respectfully (or not at all).

The gif below shows how much more anomalously warmer the temps were around the arctic in 2016 Apr-Jun versus 2017. Obviously for 2017 the extra snow is important and for 2016 being at the tail end of our super nino.


meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3176 on: July 26, 2017, 08:42:46 PM »

The Eemian took place around 120K years ago, so let's not exaggerate.

The early and middle Holocene was 6-10,000 years before present

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004162#

I guess Reduced Sea Ice is a completely other Animal, than Ice- free...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3177 on: July 26, 2017, 10:06:28 PM »
Wanted to thank seaicesailor for "going out on a limb" in suggesting that we could see a normal refreeze season and a kind of recovery to the ice. I know some of us, including myself, get passionate about conveying the rapidly changing aspects of our climate, but that passion should not cloud my capacity to reason clearly and debate respectfully (or not at all).

While the past freeze season was one for the record books, we have had anomalously warm polar winters for at least a decade. I would be surprised if this is not the case for the next freeze season.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3178 on: July 26, 2017, 11:01:48 PM »
While the past freeze season was one for the record books, we have had anomalously warm polar winters for at least a decade. I would be surprised if this is not the case for the next freeze season.

Anything but an anomalously warm winter is almost impossible. The arctic may not be melting out completely, but there certainly has been a regime change with far more open water and more water vapor in the atmosphere than there was 30+ years ago. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, making an anomalously warm winter, compared to the last 30 years pretty much dead certain. I would bet my house on it.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3179 on: July 26, 2017, 11:28:45 PM »
While the past freeze season was one for the record books, we have had anomalously warm polar winters for at least a decade. I would be surprised if this is not the case for the next freeze season.

To me, what happened last year was that the ice opened early in a big way, causing the waters to absorb more heat than they usually would.

Come freezing season, this heat was released as water vapor to the atmosphere, making the air warmer and more moist. This heat and moisture meant that the air was warmer (especially when the cycle was completed by snow coming out).

All that extra snow really slowed down this melting season; it seems like it had a bigger impact in the end the warm air keeping the ice thin.

That all being said the conditions that triggered the 2016 fast opening are not, IMO, magical or impossible to repeat. There will be continued see-sawing, but I think the long term direction is very well established.


Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3180 on: July 26, 2017, 11:37:21 PM »
Termites come to mind where I live. They eat your wood-frame home out from under you before you know what is happening. By the time anything goes bang, it is usually about too late.

o love that one, great analogy

But would you know what was happening if you knew there were termites under your house? Would you have some way of measuring their progress? Perhaps some indirect measures, or data from other houses?

Because we are aware of the issue wrt Arctic sea ice, and we have many people looking at various sources of data. We have PIOMAS, which obviously is a model, but combined with CryoSat gives a good idea how thick the ice is at the start of the melting season (or give us a hint that there has been a lot of snowfall during winter, as happened in the 2012/2013 and 2016/2017 winters). We have an indication of melt pond formation through the University of Reading's model. If there had been lots of melt ponds during May and June, I can assure you very few people here would be reticent. The same for land snow cover, that likely has an impact - possibly big - on melting season progression (as Rob Dekker has been showing). And then we have all these archives for temperatures and sea level pressure, sea surface temperatures even. We have weather forecasts, satellite images and sea ice concentration maps on which those stupid extent and area graphs are based.

Sure, it would be better if we had exact figures (and historical data!) on ocean heat flux, thickness during summer and melt ponds. But it's not as if we have nothing to go by.

So, we know termites are under our house and we have various ways to measure their progress and compare that to what happened at other times. I don't think things will come crashing that unexpectedly. I think there will be hints, stronger hints than from what we've seen this year. That's where the analogy breaks down.

But even if we have an inkling of what's to come, it will still be mindblowing to see it play out. And whether we see it in advance or not, it doesn't matter one bit for the story itself. We can't influence that. The story is: Arctic sea ice loss likely has very negative consequences for the whole world, and they're not starting once the Arctic is ice-free (whether that be in 2017, 2027 or 2057).

----

Sorry, for the off-topic, but I'm getting tired from the 'something is about to happen that is invisible, but only a select few great minds have been predicting all along'. I may have to open a thread on that soon, so we don't have to discuss the same nonsense all over the place.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3181 on: July 26, 2017, 11:37:30 PM »
Great points everyone. Let's also not forget how wacky the polar jet was last fall/winter. Another seemingly recurring phenomena. Any substantive repeat of that and there's more than enough heat in the system to yield very low winter power.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3182 on: July 27, 2017, 12:00:37 AM »
I meant the termite analogy in a very simple manner, and did not intend it go that far. I do believe this season has been sneaky, because the ice is melting at a pace similar to some of the worst years on record, but the extent is not reflecting this. Nobody has to be blind to that, only if they choose. This year does not have to blow 2012 away, but has it's place in the tapestry. I don't mean to declare disaster any more than any other year, and don't yet know how bad it will be, but I know it is not over and it won't exactly be all that good when it is.


Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3183 on: July 27, 2017, 12:34:54 AM »
I meant the termite analogy in a very simple manner, and did not intend it go that far. I do believe this season has been sneaky, because the ice is melting at a pace similar to some of the worst years on record, but the extent is not reflecting this. Nobody has to be blind to that, only if they choose. This year does not have to blow 2012 away, but has it's place in the tapestry. I don't mean to declare disaster any more than any other year, and don't yet know how bad it will be, but I know it is not over and it won't exactly be all that good when it is.

Fair enough, TT!

I think extent will reflect some of the state of the ice in the end. But however it plays out, it's clear that this year the Arctic didn't just dodge a bullet. It dodged a cannonball.

And we're learning a lot here.

---

The ECMWF weather forecast runs have been pointing more and more towards high pressure trying to break back in. Here's today's 12Z forecast:

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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3184 on: July 27, 2017, 12:49:34 AM »
I think the positions on this board are closer than it sometimes seems. In this GIF I compare a fictive state of the ice, which I would consider very preoccupying, with the actual Bremen image.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3185 on: July 27, 2017, 01:13:07 AM »
I don't know why that GIF makes me think everything will turn out okay one moment and then 'handbaskets' and the like the next.   :-\
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3186 on: July 27, 2017, 02:19:51 AM »
Wanted to thank seaicesailor for "going out on a limb" in suggesting that we could see a normal refreeze season and a kind of recovery to the ice.

Dangerous thing that.. :-X
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3187 on: July 27, 2017, 02:25:00 AM »
Wanted to thank seaicesailor for "going out on a limb" in suggesting that we could see a normal refreeze season and a kind of recovery to the ice.

Dangerous thing that.. :-X
I'm confused... Don't the vast majority of people on this forum consistently agree with the conservative outlook? I guess must I have no sense of humour and smoke too much pot. Nevermind, I'm not going to respond to this kind of provocation again. Carry on...
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3188 on: July 27, 2017, 03:15:52 AM »
Here is an animation of some reasonably cloud free frames between Svalbard and the pole 17-26 from worldview. And stills of the 17th and 26th, and a wide from Greenland-Sval-Pole from the 25th to show the location. Despite north-east drift it looks to me that a fair bit of the smaller slush melted out between the larger floes opening up water area, despite general compaction.
The big Floe is about 30km diameter.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3189 on: July 27, 2017, 06:06:27 AM »
7/18/12 lowest thickness in satellite era compared to 7/18/17 new lowest thickness... In just 5 years we have virtually lost all the 3,4 and 5 meter ice folks and next month so goes the 2 meter ice... Get ready for the Clathrate Gun folks...


« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 07:45:07 AM by Neven »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3190 on: July 27, 2017, 07:59:09 AM »

A couple of layers from latest Worldview composite. A chunk of glacial ice is just sea ice now. Whether these next six, seven weeks or so pass by without something much more dramatic happening there will be interesting. The ocean underneath will be working up something big, perhaps for another season. The inevitability of it all is disheartening really.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3191 on: July 27, 2017, 08:43:46 AM »
SST's have not been working right on Earth Null School.
Best to search elsewhere for now.
Compare same dates from 2016 and 2017
CLICK IMAGE

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3192 on: July 27, 2017, 09:27:23 AM »
It is remarkable how little ice there is more than a couple of meters thick anywhere. A lot of it appears thinner than thickness maps display. This area though, barely registers on thickness maps and must be pretty thick in there.

This sea ice formed around a barricade of islands on the Greenland coast is significant due to the way it is holding back the open ocean fronts from confronting giant glacial ice faces hundreds of meters thick. Given the ice sheets behind are thousands of meters thick, melt seasons just keep getting more scary. Seas are rising.

I had a quick look back through the last few years and pulled out a few notable late season encroachments.




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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3193 on: July 27, 2017, 09:57:01 AM »
I guess Reduced Sea Ice is a completely other Animal, than Ice- free...

Perhaps you read the paper...
They talk about reduced sea ice in comparison with now, so less ice than now.
And they talk about possible completely ice-free summers:

"While reconstructing paleo-sea ice extent from proxies is a challenging task (de Vernal et al., 2013), there are several independent studies of Arctic Ocean sea ice proxies suggesting that parts of this period was also characterized by less sea ice over large areas and potentially even sea ice free summers"

So suggesting that the current conditions would be unique in the last couple of million (or even ten-thousands) years, is not what out current understanding of paleo-climate tells us. The dangerous thing now is: This happens very fast, it is by far not over (because the climate is not yet in equilibrium for current CO2-levels and we are still emitting huge amounts of CO2, so it will get hotter) and most important: At the time something similar last happened, there were no mayor human settlements with billions of people being affected by the changes.

If lets say sea level raised 2 meters 100.000 years in the past, no one noticed or the few humans around the coasts just wandered with their tents a little bit land-inwards. Today, a rise of 2 meters would be catastrophic, because we have billions of people living at the coasts, we have huge cities there, harbours, etc. All those people and properties would have to be relocated, and I guess no country would be happy to welcome e.g. dozen of millions of Bangladeshis.

So yes, climate has always changed and the planet saw all kinds of different climate states from totally ice free to nearly completely ice-covered. But the consequences for us - a modern human society and economy - resulting from such a rapidly changing climate are on a totally different scale nowadays than back then.

For mother earth that might not matter, but for our standard of living it does very well.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3194 on: July 27, 2017, 10:15:17 AM »
deconstruct:

I am very well aware of this.
Nevertheless, we are are already effectively, warmer than the Eemian.
And CO2 levels are higher than anytime, in the last 20 Million Years.
Methane also.
And as You said, the Change is already proceeding 10 Times faster than during the PETM or Permian. Even before entering the Abrupt, exponential Phase.

OTOH, last Melt Season saw 2 or 3 Cyclones late in August, which almost finished off the Ice.
The Repeat of only 1 of those, could very well be the Bullet.






binntho

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3195 on: July 27, 2017, 10:27:15 AM »
For mother earth that might not matter, but for our standard of living it does very well.
I guess you meant "but for our standard of living it does very much". Other than that, I agree with you totally.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3196 on: July 27, 2017, 10:50:17 AM »
Of course it matters to Mother Earth. Deeply. Haven't you heard of extinction? Not to mention all the suffering (and I'm not talking about just H. sapiens suffering)...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3197 on: July 27, 2017, 12:10:33 PM »
This area though, barely registers on thickness maps and must be pretty thick in there.

You may be interested in the thread dedicated to the area?

Zachariae Isstrøm / Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden / North East Greenland
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3198 on: July 27, 2017, 12:15:40 PM »
Cupla Gifs from some playing around looking for decent Sentinel imagery from the 24th.

Doesn't seem to scan further nth than 82 degrees, but some of the resolution is pretty impressive. big mixture of image qualities and contrasts.
First is north of CAA and Nares, second north of Svalbard, FJL, and SevZem.

We've got raised beaches all round NZ at about 30m above sea level from the Eemian. And none of our ships could handle stormy seas that can throw house sized boulders 5km inland and 50m above sea level in the Bahamas likes supposed to have happened from that Abrupt Greenland melt and the North Sea storms resulting. I kinda think a coastal species like us naked apes would have noticed a little Deconstruct.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3199 on: July 27, 2017, 01:14:15 PM »
I'm confused... Don't the vast majority of people on this forum consistently agree with the conservative outlook?

Apparently not last year.  Very little tolerance for views which ran against the "catastrophic" nature of the 2016 melting season or any views of anything which might be driving it.

Hence my comment.  I'm watching the ice capitulate with great interest right now.  It looks like the heavy snow layer might have been hiding an even worse situation with the ice than was originally thought.  If that is the case and Bremen AMSR2 maps are showing a rapid and continuing concentration decline, this end of July.  This decline might, just, tip the balance into a new record low if we get some storms even close to the GAC of 2012 and, given the shape, consistency of the ice and potential to release ocean heat to the atmosphere as moisture, this is by no means impossible.

Even if we have a record low, I expect it to be a difference which is proportional to the 2006/7 deviance minus the 2011/12 deviance.  If that makes sense.

Even then, after a record low, I expect a greater growth of ice in 2017/18 than we saw in 2016/17 and, possibly, 2015/16 and for this phenomena to extend to the spring of 2020.

Whilst the last bit is out of the scope of this melting season, it was also out of scope of the 2016 season when I was talking about it then.

You say that people on the forum at conservative.  I haven't noticed that.  I have noticed a strong resistance to any event which exceeds the probable melt given the heat budget available to melt it.  Said in that way, if you want to present a scenario where there is exceptional loss of ice beyond the viable heat budget, you do need to present the mechanism which introduces the extra melting, i.e. upwelling of deep ocean heat via extensive Ekman pumping.

I understand that "I expect" and "it seems", are just my opinion but there has to be some opinion  or we're just watching the cricket scores here.

The reason "I expect" things are because I happen to follow a theory which has been, partially, studied by at least 3 different scientific studies with varied results.  So far and in broad, for the last 3 years, the melting and freezing seasons have followed that theory. 

I don't believe I have been guilty of

Quote
'something is about to happen that is invisible, but only a select few great minds have been predicting all along'

I have explained why I believe what I do and have presented links to studies which aim to prove, or disprove, what I see, with varying results.

I can't exactly help it if the Arctic keeps on doing what I said it would.  We are below 2016 right now and everything points to the fact that we will continue on that path and down the path of 2012 to the end of the season.  There is not a lot of chance that 2017 will stop and follow the track of 2016.  But there is at least some chance it will and it cannot be discounted.

When we contrast the latest Bremen concentration image with 2012 of the same day





The potential for a GAC to wreak havoc in 2017 cannot be denied.

As for

Quote
Nevermind, I'm not going to respond to this kind of provocation again. Carry on...

When I chose to explain my thinking last year, as to why I believed that 2016 would stall and 2017 would not and would be a bigger melt year than 2016, the following happened.

I was called a denialist.  The theory, to which I posted recent research was called "debunked" and several questions were asked as to why I should even be able to post here.  If you believe that one sardonic comment of mine, followed by a zipped mouth emoticon, is baiting, then I guess I can't say any more.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein