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deconstruct

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3200 on: July 27, 2017, 01:45:47 PM »
Here is a Modis composite from Aqua/Terra images at 1km resolution from 24-27th of July 2017, trying to remove as much clouds as possible:

deconstruct

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3201 on: July 27, 2017, 01:49:11 PM »
My view of it is:
Clearly there are lots of wholes in different areas, but that is IMO no wonder, considering the many lows recently in the artic, dispersing the ice flows.
But it is hard to tell from the image, what state the ice really is, because there is no way to derive the thickness of the ice there by just looking on the image.

It could be, that it is quite thin and many of it will melt out, but it could also be so thick, that most of it will survive this season. I guess, we will only know afterwards.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3202 on: July 27, 2017, 02:00:53 PM »
I was called a denialist.  The theory, to which I posted recent research was called "debunked" and several questions were asked as to why I should even be able to post here.  If you believe that one sardonic comment of mine, followed by a zipped mouth emoticon, is baiting, then I guess I can't say any more.

Sometimes, all this reminds me of Peak Oil: At the "peak" of that theory, there were those fights between peaksters and cornucopians all the way. Then the peak was delayed, mostly by US-fracking and a booming Irak production ("the price") and both sides screamed victory: "I always knew peak oil was a scam!" against "The peak of conventional oil DID HAPPEN back in 2005."

Then, with a diminished audience, a rationalization took place and the best of those brains started to reanalize the situation with new knowledge and information. Suddenly the doomers and cornucopians went away, they couldn't stand the timeframe of the delayed disaster (now probably around 2025).

Same could happen here: The blue ocean WILL happen, but it could easily happen in 2025, too. A lot of time for scientific observation and preparation. Though I don't say it will happen that late. All I want to say is, that since 2007, or at least since 2012, many here are awaiting a doomish scenario taking place very soon. But nature and also mankind have proven that they don't stick to individual desires and expectations.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 02:10:02 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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deconstruct

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3203 on: July 27, 2017, 02:13:38 PM »
Of course it matters to Mother Earth. Deeply. Haven't you heard of extinction? Not to mention all the suffering (and I'm not talking about just H. sapiens suffering)...
Species got extinct all the time on mother earth. I meant "mother earth" more as a general place for organisms to be able to live on, and we had that since a couple of hundred million years now, where the earth saw all kinds of different climates and species. Of course, many species died out during this, and others evolved. But for that system in general, climate change will not matter (as something will live somewhere, even if it warmed 10 degrees).

But our human species could not preserve the same standard of living, when such changes are too fast and to severe. Because we have big cities where they are now, we have our country-borders, our agricultural areas, areas with ethnic groups etc. If half of Europe or North America would be covered by glaciers again, and that would happen in 100-200 years, that would be catastrophic in the same way as warming. Because you have only a few decades to rebuild whole countries elsewhere, that costs huge amounts of money. And at that elsewhere there are already people living, probably not so happy, to share their land with foreign people from elsewhere leading to all sorts of ethnic and societal conflicts up to wars, which will further make it more different to deal with that situation (one has only to look at the refugee crisis or other things now, which are on a way smaller scale).

So, that was now totally off topic with regards to the 2017 melting season.
But to get back at least in the direction of the topic:

All that I wanted to say is: The past doesnt matter so much as the present. We live now and we have to deal now with climate change. And the development of sea ice plays a huge role in that, alone because of the albedo effects that an ice-free arctic in summer would have. And how 2017 will turn out, is IMO not clear at all. I would neither rule out the possibility, that the melting will slow down and we end up like 2016, or that melting will continue at a high level and we will end up lower than 2012. There are hints and arguments for both of that scenarios, and I am not confident at all, which of the paths it will take.

12Patrick

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3204 on: July 27, 2017, 02:51:39 PM »

Daniel B.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3205 on: July 27, 2017, 02:52:56 PM »
I was called a denialist.  The theory, to which I posted recent research was called "debunked" and several questions were asked as to why I should even be able to post here.  If you believe that one sardonic comment of mine, followed by a zipped mouth emoticon, is baiting, then I guess I can't say any more.

Same could happen here: The blue ocean WILL happen, but it could easily happen in 2025, too. A lot of time for scientific observation and preparation. Though I don't say it will happen that late. All I want to say is, that since 2007, or at least since 2012, many here are awaiting a doomish scenario taking place very soon. But nature and also mankind have proven that they don't stick to individual desires and expectations.

I do not think that it will happen that soon.  I tend to agree with most of the published literature of a 2050-60 timeframe, although predicting anything that far out has a huge uncertainty factor.  The melt this year is starting to show signs of ebbing, making a new minimum highly unlikely.  The cold North Atlantic and increasing glacier mass in Greenland will help limit further melting.  Something similar to a 2010 minimum seems reasonable, although I would not rule out something as high as 2014. 

I tend to agree with Neil, that the outlook is for sea ice growth in the next few years.  This is especially true, if the AMO cool phase continues.  That would likely rein in most of the believers in an accelerating sea ice melt. 

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3206 on: July 27, 2017, 03:08:56 PM »
Given the amazing progress of this melt season, I am discouraged by the "off topic" nature of this thread. I only occasionally have any insights to offer here but visit daily to get updates on the melt season from informed commenters. This site has threads available for every conceivable topic. Can everyone work to keep comments relevant?

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3207 on: July 27, 2017, 04:45:18 PM »
According to Wip's PIOMAS graphic, the 2016/2017 refreeze season was much lower (less ice formed) than the 2015/2016 refreeze season (see the break points in slope from October through April)  However, since melt season the slope of volume loss for this year's melt is slightly lower than the melt rate for last year.

overall, this indicates significantly lower final volume in this year's september from last but not due to an increase in sea ice loss during the melt season but rather a significant (record!) reduction in the formation of ice during the freeze season.

A continuation of cloudy and colder weather would continue to prevent a new record low volume, there is no indication that this will happen, but it could!
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3208 on: July 27, 2017, 05:23:10 PM »
Let's face it, even a minimum anywhere even close to 2012 or 2016 is still bad news, since we know the oceans are warming and Atlantic surface water is infiltrating, CO2 is still rising.

However, with regard to this season, with the Arctic Ocean at the lowest volume, possibly on record, as far as we can tell (Oren's Inner Basin graphs), I don't see how anyone can think this is a humdrum year. Isn't most peripheral ice irrelevant to what happens in the Arctic Ocean? There are still icebergs in Hudson Bay right now for example.
We'll see, the volume of the Arctic Ocean (AO) could recover to be in the 'near-disasterous' range of 2nd or 3rd lowest for the Arctic Ocean, as Oren predicts.
I personally have no real idea if it will be the lowest volume for AO, but that large area of pretty integrated ice from just NE of Greenland out towards Beaufort and up towards Chucki Sea could save the day (for extent at least).

Our arena has changed and I think people look at the graphs so much they forget. Pretty hard for any post to be conservative here. I'm just glad a few people on the planet are at least paying attention, and talking about it here, wether conservative or slightly alarmist.

It's all in the depth of the dip.
Compare to 1980 (yellow at top), pretty nice reasonable inverted parabola.
(1980 - the year I quit the corporate world and the mainstream world, and went looking for answers, since it was clear governments and industry were incapable of meaningful action or insightful comprehension. Hopefully it's not too late, 35+ years later)
« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 05:40:04 PM by Thomas Barlow »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3209 on: July 27, 2017, 07:22:04 PM »
I don't see how anyone can think this is a humdrum year.

Seriously, no one is thinking that. You and others have to stop creating this idea in your head and promulgate it over here. The real conservatives are in the deniosphere. There are simply people, and I am one of them, who don't want to go out on a limb when there isn't enough evidence to support it. And yes, we don't have enough information to construct sufficient evidence all the time. That doesn't mean I and others are not open to unforeseen things happening (I try to stress that as much as I can, describing different scenarios, especially when I write for the ASIB).

I also want to urge people to stay on-topic and/or short as much as possible, or else I'm going to start snipping again.

Here are the 'rules' for this thread (I'm more lenient elsewhere on the Forum):

1) Every comment in the melting/freezing season threads should pertain to that subject. These are the most popular threads for readers who don't comment, so don't bother them with off-topic stuff.
2) If you have to be off-topic, be short.
3) If you're the third guy who wants to say something about the off-topic subject, say: Okay, guys, this is getting off-topic, let's go to this or that thread - or open a new one - so our discussions don't get lost and we don't bother others. It's a big forum.
4) In other threads you can go off-topic more.
5) Don't start discussions about these rules in the thread itself. PM Neven or go to the The Forum category.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 09:59:10 PM by Neven »
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3210 on: July 27, 2017, 10:13:15 PM »
Here are the DMI SST anomalies of today's date vs same date 2014 and July 28th 2012 and 2016.



It's clear that this year is no rebound year like 2014 was, but it also can't quite compare to the heat anomaly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in 2012 and 2016. I believe that this was one of the reasons 2016 ended as low as it did, as weather conditions weren't all that conducive to melting either (this year is worse, unless a big GAC and mega-Dipole show up, like they did in August last year).

But given that PIOMAS volume is as low as it is, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if this year ends in the top 3, regardless of the weather, which would be quite spectacular in itself. If there's a GAC or something similar, a second place is quite possible as well. Somehow I don't believe the 2012 records will be broken, but you never know.
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12Patrick

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3211 on: July 27, 2017, 10:15:14 PM »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3212 on: July 27, 2017, 10:25:32 PM »

Am I crazy to think the weather will probably change for the worse as the season gets closer to changing? I don't necessarily mean huge storms but simply more movement and waves and less calm, and moderate storms at the least.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3213 on: July 27, 2017, 10:26:44 PM »
Cci-reanalyzer seems to be saying there is still some oomph in air temperatures to add to sea temperatures. It ain't over yet.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3214 on: July 27, 2017, 10:39:31 PM »
It's definitely not over, but area and extent have continued to slow down in various data sets. Things will have to pick up real soon for 2017 to go seriously low. I think it will, regardless of the weather.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3215 on: July 27, 2017, 11:03:46 PM »

Too much of thin ice that is going to disappear.

Meanwhile from Wipneus AMSR2 calculations
Extent: +41k vs 2016, -98k vs 2015, -428k vs 2014, -223k vs 2013, +102k vs 2012
Area: +55k vs 2016, -41k vs 2015, -551k vs 2014, -324k vs 2013, -14k vs 2012
It's just 100k difference with 2012 in extent and less area. I still bet 2017 will end with record low extent\area\volume


Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3216 on: July 27, 2017, 11:39:22 PM »
It's just 100k difference with 2012 in extent and less area. I still bet 2017 will end with record low extent\area\volume

Could be, but given that PIOMAS says they're on a par, it will take weather conditions similar to those in 2012 (or perhaps last year) for that to happen. In other words a GAC. Might very well happen. Things are pretty crazy in the Arctic.

Here's a comparison of all UH AMSR2 concentration maps since 2012 (earliest date for 2012 is August 1st, the rest is July 27th). My subjective interpretation is that 2012 looks worse, with all that easy ice in the ESS and the NWP open etc. 2013 looks similar on the interior (also lots of cyclonic weather dispersing the ice pack, worse than this year). 2016 doesn't look all that great either, and remember, it ended up quite low, given that melting momentum wasn't near as powerful as it was in 2012.

But this year's interesting feature is that big bite in the Greenland Sea, which shows there has been very little Fram export:
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3217 on: July 27, 2017, 11:52:45 PM »
Neven or someone else, can you describe the setup that led to the GAC of 2012? You say that the arctic is crazy... what features exist now that up the chances of another GAC event? I hope it is ok to post here!

I had to look up the GAC of 2012 and there isn't much info about it. Here is a nice image for those like me that weren't even thinking of the state of the arctic in 2012.


Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3218 on: July 28, 2017, 12:04:09 AM »
Hi NotAllIceIsFrozen,

I would suggest you read my ASIB blog posts from back then. Start here. After reading scroll back up and click the next blog post title.

That was an exciting time. The Arctic has been lucky a couple of times since then (as have we), but last year was reminiscent.

It's hard to tell in advance which set-up leads to a GAC, although some here have the extensive meteorological knowledge to describe the required conditions.

I guess that when the forecast models start to point towards it and keep predicting it several days in a row, we can be fairly sure something is going to happen. Nothing like it on the radar for now, except for occasional hints that are too far out. But it's not August yet, of course, and the ice is thin and the water is warm.

Edit: For instance, ECMWF has a 974 hPa cyclone 10 days from now (GAC-2012 was around 963 hPa). I'm not even posting that image. Too far out. It has to be D3-D4 to seriously consider it.

In the meantime, 2017 is in the process of being characterized by a full-fledged PAC (persistent Arctic cyclone), the likes of which we haven't seen since 2013, when it comes to longevity.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3219 on: July 28, 2017, 12:28:10 AM »
There have been some changes recently.

Looking at Arctic Penguin's compactness graph



I note that at the time when extent for 2017 has been closing on 2012, compactness has been dropping like a stone.

Looking at the Beaufort, that ice is not spreading to safety.  More spreading to destruction.  With or without a GAC.



I assume the PAC has some part in this. What was, originally, a very compact and homogenous Beaufort is being torn to shreds and sent out to melt in warmer waters.

Whilst this, in itself, is not a single major factor, it seems that 2017 has been characterised with a head start and multiple small pushes to keep it on track.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3220 on: July 28, 2017, 12:35:54 AM »
Hello everyone and thanks for all the science and your opinions.
I've been watching some MYI (I think) which was heading for the Fram Strait until the wind or current changed. Hopefully it will survive as it heads towards FJL, though it seems pretty warm (comparitively) there too recently.
More interesting, perhaps, is the mobility of the ice around it.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3221 on: July 28, 2017, 01:05:50 AM »
Since the 2,3,4 and 5 meter ice is effectively gone now the heat that was available to melt it has now gone to melt the 1 meter ice that is left... It won't be long folks..... BTW ice breakers are no longer needed are they?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3222 on: July 28, 2017, 01:10:48 AM »
the PAC may soon exert more influence on proceedings . after toying with deepening beyond a week out GFS has now popped a deep Low within 96 hours .. with no sign of cyclonic activity lessening in the outlook . We may be soon finding out how much ..or how  little ice lies under the snow . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3223 on: July 28, 2017, 01:58:13 AM »
Looking at Arctic Penguin's compactness graph
In the CAB, area has finally started to drop -- late but (so far) rapidly. Extent has yet to follow suit.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3224 on: July 28, 2017, 03:17:01 AM »
I assume the PAC has some part in this. What was, originally, a very compact and homogenous Beaufort is being torn to shreds and sent out to melt in warmer waters.

Whilst this, in itself, is not a single major factor, it seems that 2017 has been characterised with a head start and multiple small pushes to keep it on track.

Looking at Barrow it's currently about 15ºF above average and expected to stay in that range for about three more days so i'd expect some significantly warming water up there.  Offshore winds too.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3225 on: July 28, 2017, 08:26:10 AM »
ECMWF in less than 2 days suggests the Chukchi may have some difficulty.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3226 on: July 28, 2017, 09:41:46 AM »
Posted by: greatdying2

ECMWF in less than 2 days suggests the Chukchi may have some difficulty.


That might be a Sign of Things still to come in the Remainder of the Melt Season...

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3227 on: July 28, 2017, 10:18:26 AM »
There will be mostly only thin and dispersed parts of ice pack remaining in the Arctic in late August that could be easily manipulated by any winds and waves. CAB may export it's ice anywhere. Maybe SIE could be higher than 2012 but it'll still drop in September

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3228 on: July 28, 2017, 10:23:25 AM »
Those dice are wrong - 3 and 4 should be on opposite faces. Opposite numbers always add up to seven.  :)

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3229 on: July 28, 2017, 10:31:54 AM »
This might be a bit of a stupid questions, but why is there still ice in hudson bay?
I went though world view and it what appears like slush, but its been like this for several weeks.
The ocean is dark all around it and have been for over a month, hence should have picked up a lot of energy.
Is this a remnant of MYI, or is there a different explanation?


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3230 on: July 28, 2017, 10:41:36 AM »
ECMWF in less than 2 days suggests the Chukchi may have some difficulty.

And both ECMWF and GFS predict, that it will continue with more storms for the next week.
GFS shows the storm over the East Siberian Sea with below 980 hPa, GFS sees it even below 975 hPa.

May not be as bad as the GAC from 2012, and it is still some days out, so the forecast may not be correct, but it could still have a huge impact. Wave heights in the ESS are forecasted to reach 4 meters.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3231 on: July 28, 2017, 10:52:11 AM »
This might be a bit of a stupid questions, but why is there still ice in hudson bay?
I went though world view and it what appears like slush, but its been like this for several weeks.
The ocean is dark all around it and have been for over a month, hence should have picked up a lot of energy.
Is this a remnant of MYI, or is there a different explanation?
That is quite common in the Hudson Bay. In nearly every year the ice is driven to the western shore of the bay and stays there for multiple weeks. My guess is, that there aren't much currents in that area and not much overturning, so the cold meltwater stays near the surface, providing a cold environment for the remaining ice.

2016 had ice around till August 7th exactly at the same spot, and 2015 had it there even till end of August.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3232 on: July 28, 2017, 11:18:01 AM »
From this weather forecast Kara and Barents will import another wagons of ice from CAB. Despite their waters colder than in previous years but it seems warm enough to melt any imported MYI

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3233 on: July 28, 2017, 12:11:26 PM »
From this weather forecast Kara and Barents will import another wagons of ice from CAB. Despite their waters colder than in previous years but it seems warm enough to melt any imported MYI

Probably it's not even MYI, but FYI.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3234 on: July 28, 2017, 12:19:50 PM »
That thinning spot in the middle of the image, north of the Laptev Sea, already exists over a week now. Just waiting to see open water there.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2017, 01:08:04 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3235 on: July 28, 2017, 02:24:46 PM »

It's clear that this year is no rebound year like 2014 was, but it also can't quite compare to the heat anomaly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in 2012 and 2016. I believe that this was one of the reasons 2016 ended as low as it did, as weather conditions weren't all that conducive to melting either (this year is worse, unless a big GAC and mega-Dipole show up, like they did in August last year).

But given that PIOMAS volume is as low as it is, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if this year ends in the top 3, regardless of the weather, which would be quite spectacular in itself. If there's a GAC or something similar, a second place is quite possible as well. Somehow I don't believe the 2012 records will be broken, but you never know.

I seriously doubt we will approach the 2012 record.  The recent slowing makes even the top 3 look difficult.  I think the cold Atlantic and Greenland will keep ice higher in that area, compensating for the warmth in the west.  I do not think 2017 will make the top 5.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3236 on: July 28, 2017, 02:49:26 PM »
I think it will be 2nd lowest.

2012 is now safe but going second still well on

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3237 on: July 28, 2017, 03:44:04 PM »
I think it will be 2nd lowest.

2012 is now safe but going second still well on

I agree.

This past winter and the ridiculous low volume coming out of it made me think we were headed toward an all time record. We need to spend some more time discussing and trying to understand why this is the case. Is it purely weather related? Did we dodge a bullet because this melt season was not conducive to melting?

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3238 on: July 28, 2017, 04:31:46 PM »
I seriously doubt we will approach the 2012 record.  The recent slowing makes even the top 3 look difficult.  I think the cold Atlantic and Greenland will keep ice higher in that area, compensating for the warmth in the west.  I do not think 2017 will make the top 5.

doubts are never wrong till results are final while you probably refer to extent, all was said about the value of extent at this time of the year and there is so much time left that daily and/or even weekly variations in melting speed do not mean that much. as stated earlier we should more keep the bigger picture with various factors in mind than to react and adapt our outlooks to every little up and down in a graph.

finally to remind everyone who could get a false impression, i voted for second lowest, not for lowest with a mention of a lowest still in reach and the weather has a great say in the reminder of this melting season

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3239 on: July 28, 2017, 04:46:39 PM »
this image somehow give a nice outlook how things will probably end up this year, the color scheme is somehow user friendly and easier to interpret than many others.

everyone can easily draw the lines and be impressed, this image somehow implements thickness to extent in a different than the usual way.

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3240 on: July 28, 2017, 07:26:36 PM »
This might be a bit of a stupid questions, but why is there still ice in hudson bay?
I went though world view and it what appears like slush, but its been like this for several weeks.
The ocean is dark all around it and have been for over a month, hence should have picked up a lot of energy.
Is this a remnant of MYI, or is there a different explanation?

Hudson Bay is relatively fresh water and so melts and freezes at a slightly higher temperature than the Arctic ocean.  The extent is typical to ever-so-slightly low for this time of year.

Of course, the Great Bear Lake is farther north, fresher water, and more inland; so why the Great Bear Lake would melt out and the Hudson wouldn't is probably important.  Depth of water?
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 07:39:43 PM by cesium62 »

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3241 on: July 28, 2017, 07:51:48 PM »
We are coming to arguably the most interesting part of the melt season. Here is a gif of what happened last year in the 6 weeks following July 27, compared to what July 27 looks like this year.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3242 on: July 28, 2017, 09:52:18 PM »
this image somehow give a nice outlook how things will probably end up this year, the color scheme is somehow user friendly and easier to interpret than many others.

everyone can easily draw the lines and be impressed, this image somehow implements thickness to extent in a different than the usual way.

I don't know. Ice thickness seems such a wild guess to me, I wouldn't bet anything on any of those graphs. DIM, NAVY ... you name it. Each is so different, some show the Atlantic side thinning, others the Pacific area. I agree that there's a lot of thin ice, and that it's certainly distributed rather towards the edges. But if there's nothing strange going to happen soon, this season is running out of steam for a new record. If the anomalies show up that late like last year, only a cyclone could push the limits. But with each day that goes by, I doubt more that that poof-event I was so convinced of, is really going to take place.
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cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3243 on: July 28, 2017, 11:32:35 PM »

It's clear that this year is no rebound year like 2014 was, but it also can't quite compare to the heat anomaly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in 2012 and 2016. I believe that this was one of the reasons 2016 ended as low as it did, as weather conditions weren't all that conducive to melting either (this year is worse, unless a big GAC and mega-Dipole show up, like they did in August last year).

But given that PIOMAS volume is as low as it is, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if this year ends in the top 3, regardless of the weather, which would be quite spectacular in itself. If there's a GAC or something similar, a second place is quite possible as well. Somehow I don't believe the 2012 records will be broken, but you never know.

I seriously doubt we will approach the 2012 record.  The recent slowing makes even the top 3 look difficult.  I think the cold Atlantic and Greenland will keep ice higher in that area, compensating for the warmth in the west.  I do not think 2017 will make the top 5.

The Slater graphs ( http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ ) have observations tracking predictions rather well right now.  Also in 2016 for August and September.  And the track record is darn good: the early August prediction of the average September extent has been about 100K to 200K lower than actual.

After 2012, the next four minima are not that far apart and 2017 is still on track to be in the range of that group of extremely low extent years.  The widespread snow fall lowering albedo, the cold Atlantic, and the persistent cloudiness are not enough to prevent this cold year from achieving an extent on par with the low extents of recent hot years.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3244 on: July 29, 2017, 12:00:17 AM »
this image somehow give a nice outlook how things will probably end up this year, the color scheme is somehow user friendly and easier to interpret than many others.

everyone can easily draw the lines and be impressed, this image somehow implements thickness to extent in a different than the usual way.

I don't know. Ice thickness seems such a wild guess to me, I wouldn't bet anything on any of those graphs. DIM, NAVY ... you name it. Each is so different, some show the Atlantic side thinning, others the Pacific area. I agree that there's a lot of thin ice, and that it's certainly distributed rather towards the edges. But if there's nothing strange going to happen soon, this season is running out of steam for a new record. If the anomalies show up that late like last year, only a cyclone could push the limits. But with each day that goes by, I doubt more that that poof-event I was so convinced of, is really going to take place.

unfortunately for prediction accuracy you're right.

i think that sometimes it helps to look at various sources and filter the information to get
better GUESS while it remains a guess as you're hinting at.

just thought to provide another image that's rarely or never to be seen here ;)
and to be honest, it meets about my own assessment of the current situations as well as a possible "end game" during the reminder of the melting season which is why it caught (pleased) my eyes. ;)

be cause

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3245 on: July 29, 2017, 12:56:48 AM »
She seems so innocuous just now .. barely below 1000mb as she slips through the Bering straight heading North . This is an important little low . her southern flank will be wild and windy .  Her presence helps stimulate activity . soon a trio of deep little lows are dancing on ice . Is autumn returning to the Arctic .. and how long for ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3246 on: July 29, 2017, 01:48:43 AM »
This persistent wheather pattern may throu out huge amount of ice from North Pole and Fram Straight areas to Barents\Kara to melt there. What will remain in the CAB? Only holes

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3247 on: July 29, 2017, 02:39:54 AM »
She seems so innocuous just now .. barely below 1000mb as she slips through the Bering straight heading North . This is an important little low . her southern flank will be wild and windy .  Her presence helps stimulate activity . soon a trio of deep little lows are dancing on ice . Is autumn returning to the Arctic .. and how long for ?
Any little activity that will move the ice around and mix up the melt water, and it's on again, melt wise, that is. Everything has been stagnant for so long; it's a good thing mosquitoes don't like the cold.

numerobis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3248 on: July 29, 2017, 02:47:41 AM »
Since the 2,3,4 and 5 meter ice is effectively gone now the heat that was available to melt it has now gone to melt the 1 meter ice that is left... It won't be long folks..... BTW ice breakers are no longer needed are they?

I saw an ice breaker on Wednesday, surrounded by ice. The ice piled up in house-sized chunks on shore where it was melting quite quickly a couple hour later ago.

The communities north of Iqaluit on the Baffin sea shore will need icebreakers to access for a little while yet. Some people on here have doubted if it'll all melt this year (still a month and a half to go, so it seems likely to me, at least if we get back to predominant winds).

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3249 on: July 29, 2017, 04:09:22 AM »
Here are the DMI SST anomalies of today's date vs same date 2014 and July 28th 2012 and 2016.



It's clear that this year is no rebound year like 2014 was, but it also can't quite compare to the heat anomaly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in 2012 and 2016. I believe that this was one of the reasons 2016 ended as low as it did, as weather conditions weren't all that conducive to melting either (this year is worse, unless a big GAC and mega-Dipole show up, like they did in August last year).

But given that PIOMAS volume is as low as it is, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if this year ends in the top 3, regardless of the weather, which would be quite spectacular in itself. If there's a GAC or something similar, a second place is quite possible as well. Somehow I don't believe the 2012 records will be broken, but you never know.
I notice one clear trend on the above 4 pictures: rapid deterioration of ice situation in the ESAS. CARVE spotted numerous over-horizon methane bubbling regions there in recent past. Need i remind you that CH4 produces over 120 times more greenhouse effect (than CO2) short-term at the location on athmospheric entry? Or that extra heat content in ESS' water has few ways to spread but into higher-Arctic waters? My guts, unlike yours, tell me records are quite possible.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 04:37:01 AM by F.Tnioli »