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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #550 on: April 01, 2017, 09:01:54 PM »
Ice mass balance buoy 2017A isn't updating daily like in the good old days. This is the latest available info:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Current Buoy Data (03/27/2017):

Pos: 72.81 N, 146.57 W
Air Temp: -26.78 C
Air Pres: 1019.21 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 96 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 11 cm

1 meter thick ice...that makes me nervous. The Beaufort is going to open up early this year as well.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #551 on: April 01, 2017, 09:10:00 PM »
Ice mass balance buoy 2017A isn't updating daily like in the good old days. This is the latest available info:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Current Buoy Data (03/27/2017):

Pos: 72.81 N, 146.57 W
Air Temp: -26.78 C
Air Pres: 1019.21 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 96 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 11 cm

1 meter thick ice...that makes me nervous. The Beaufort is going to open up early this year as well.

 The exact thickness depends on the selection criteria of the scientists that installed it.  However the thickening rate is more worrisome. 
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #552 on: April 01, 2017, 09:13:17 PM »
I am feeling particularly awkward about the South-East moving blob of ice from the Baffin Bay on Tigertown's HYCOM link. There isn't much left behind on northern Baffin Bay except a thin frost veneer and few leftover pieces. This already seems clearing the plug from the mouth of North West passage and Nares strait. Expect early ice losses in the Canadian Archipelago looks like a domino effect progressing there from the Baffin Bay.
Also, on HYCOM.


Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #553 on: April 01, 2017, 09:38:06 PM »
I am feeling particularly awkward about the South-East moving blob of ice from the Baffin Bay on Tigertown's HYCOM link. There isn't much left behind on northern Baffin Bay except a thin frost veneer and few leftover pieces. This already seems clearing the plug from the mouth of North West passage and Nares strait. Expect early ice losses in the Canadian Archipelago looks like a domino effect progressing there from the Baffin Bay.
Also, on HYCOM.


The only way the Northwest passage is not navigable this year is if an active garlic press sends MYI through the CAA into the passage in large quantities.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 Melting Season
« Reply #554 on: April 01, 2017, 11:15:24 PM »
Just in time LOL, the high was at around 1.6 Celsius / 36F

( and there is still water to see for weeks now and most of the time it was much more open water than right now )


What does the web cam in Barrow look like now?

quite regular conditions for the time of the year :-)

you find the links on top right corner under "webcams"

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #555 on: April 02, 2017, 12:57:09 AM »
I think "pushing" to be a good choice of wording for this side of the Arctic. Navy HYCOM shows an increase in drift, which no doubt pushed the ice in this direction faster than it could melt. You can see a shift throughout the pack in concentration toward this side. So it is definitely not to be confused with growth or refreezing.
CLICK IMAGE      25th vs. 31st    (side by side below)


The ice is pushed out rapidly between FJL(at top) and Svalbard on this Worldview animation of March 19-april1 - the expanse of open water behind FJL grows 100km in a matter of days

The second attachment is a larger version of the same images which better show the state of the ice - the floes are like flat pebbles, corners ground off and of all sizes


Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #556 on: April 02, 2017, 05:57:14 AM »
It might be a good time to check back in on Baffin Bay.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #557 on: April 02, 2017, 08:08:50 AM »
Some export through Bering Strait Mar 30 - Apr 01. According to Earth-nullschool there are stronger winds (12 - 14 m/s) again starting Wed-Thu, pushing more ice to Bering Sea. Images: Worldview.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #558 on: April 02, 2017, 09:41:13 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Sunday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Second half of the week still colder (or not so warm as first half of the week).

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #559 on: April 02, 2017, 10:30:47 AM »
subgeometer, your animation is scary. So much ice pushed out while extent is stationary, the CAB is gutted from the inside with the melting season barely started.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 08:30:10 PM by oren »

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #560 on: April 02, 2017, 12:58:31 PM »
Arctic Sea Ice Currently Taking a Hit From All Sides
Yes, the Arctic sea ice seems to be taking a hit from all 4 sides of the Arctic Basin at the beginning of the melt season.

Summarising recent posts above:
1) Russian side - big cracks and areas of low concentration as the ice is blown out to sea
2) Atlantic side - ice blown out into the Barents sea, where bottom melt might be expected
3) Ice transport through the Nares Strait seems to be setting up
4) Ice is being blown out through the Bering Strait and the ice already South of there is breaking up and being blown further South.


U. Bremen Ice Concentration Map Year-on-Year Comparison for 1 April
April 1st is one of the chosen days for Neven's useful year-to-year comparison of the U. Bremen Arctic sea ice concentration maps.

As attached below, this comparison shows the ice this year on the Russian side - i.e. the ESS and Laptev Sea (red arrow) to be, on the face of it, in the worst state for this date of any of the illustrated years.


CPOM/ESA Spring Ice Thickness Maps for 2011-14 and 2017
The CPOM/ESA measurements of ice thickness are wrapping up for the end of this freeze season. As they are actual measurements - albeit with corrections - rather than more model-based assessments, I tend to consider that they probably give the most accurate picture of the ice thickness distribution over the Arctic Basin. Also attached then is a gif showing their latest 28-day map compared against the years for which they publish well-calibrated Spring maps, namely 2011-14.

  From these maps, the 2013 Arctic sea is seen to have been in terrible condition after the carnage of the record 2012 melt season. On the face of it, 2013 had less thick ice around this date than even this year, in contrast to the other years shown having considerably more ice than this year.

   And yet 2013 turned out to be a recovery year for the sea ice, which suggests that this year also has that potential in the case that this year's upcoming melt season turns out to be mild. On the other hand, is this year's ice already being blown around more than was the case in 2013?

   The bottom line from this comparison is that a mild melt season this year could still lead to a recovery in the Arctic sea ice but, on the other hand, a historic low minimum extent in 2017 is looking quite likely. It's early days yet.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 11:58:09 PM by slow wing »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #561 on: April 02, 2017, 02:34:59 PM »
Arctic Sea Ice Currently Taking a Hit From All Sides
Yes and the hit suggested below ...

Latest forecast runs suggests more high pressure dominated weather in the foreseeable future. If easterlies over Canadian Arctic will emerge we might get an early opening of the Beaufort Sea. ...


seems really certain now, just as we enter April. Added latest ECMWF forecast from hour 0 to 144.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #562 on: April 02, 2017, 03:06:04 PM »
Arctic Sea Ice Currently Taking a Hit From All Sides

My own analysis of the current situation, especially for the benefit of Rep. Lamar Smith!

Facts About the Arctic in April 2017

Some extra graphs to add to the collection. All in all, the prognosis is not good. Both in Washington DC and much further north.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #563 on: April 02, 2017, 03:16:15 PM »
The Beaufort sea ice cracks that appeared in March 29. The area seen before and after using AMSR2 sea ice brightness temperature, the animation runs from March 16 and everything has been very quiet, except strong sea ice drift that happened only for one or two days. The microwave image reveals neatly the weakened remain of the crack, will see what happens with it during April.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #564 on: April 02, 2017, 04:45:58 PM »
subgeometer, your animation is scary. So much ice pushwd out while extent is stationary, the CAB is gutted from the inside with the melting season barely started.


A new and permanent feature of the Arctic sea ice is mobility. The ice is increasingly mobile and vulnerable to mechanical forces (mixing etc.) than when it was a relatively solid patch of thick MYI. We can see this increasing mobility year round with these wonderful animations posted here.  We can measure it if we look at a 40 year trend in ice dispersion at minimum.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #565 on: April 02, 2017, 08:33:15 PM »
The ice between FJL and Svalbard looks to continue onward and break off from the main pack and make a happy little trip deep into the Barents. If it only knew.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 09:27:31 PM by Tigertown »

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #566 on: April 03, 2017, 04:31:45 AM »
Year over year 2016 vs 2017 comparison of ice temps in the Hudson/Baffin and environs.

2017 pretty clearly has a lot more available heat sooner than 2016.  Entirely subjectively, the quality of the ice using visible light suggests to me the Hudson is 1-2 weeks ahead of (last years) schedule, in spite of low late season temperatures.

Palette is Sea Ice brightness temperatures 6KM 89V using the "rainbow" palette squashed to 182-277K

EOSDIS Worldview basic link: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #567 on: April 03, 2017, 06:27:22 AM »
IJIS has extent running in place.  It would appear dispersion is taking place.

Generated this quick animation from worldview using 12KM Sea ice concentration.  It doesn't give a lot of detail, but does demonstrate how the ice is spreading out - which unfortunately in the Barentsz means into rather warm water.

<click to animate>
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #568 on: April 03, 2017, 06:46:26 AM »
@jdallen
Likewise it seems in the Bering Sea. Dispersion and melting.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #569 on: April 03, 2017, 09:27:16 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Monday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Definitely colder over mainland Siberia, but relatively warm over Beaufort Sea (high pressure). Strong winds over Barents Sea and Kara Sea Apr 7 - Apr 10. Locally also strong winds over Beaufort Apr 5 - Apr 10.

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #570 on: April 03, 2017, 10:36:22 AM »
You can see the vulnerability.  20 cm is less than a foot.  Heck, 30 cm is a foot.

« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 10:42:59 AM by Cid_Yama »
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Iain

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #571 on: April 03, 2017, 01:53:19 PM »
Are the purple and mauve areas inside the 85 deg latitude, indicating 400 – 500 mm of thickness for real?

Or are they a false reading at the edge of the scan for some reason?
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #572 on: April 03, 2017, 02:06:11 PM »
Definitely colder .

First,  thanks romett1 for this helpful update. I find it very useful.

 A nit pick if I may. It is not necesarilly colder, only less anomalously warm.  The Arctic is just as  warm as it was in the middle of winter, but the mean temperatures are catching up this year's temperatures. Now that we approach the transition time from a winter arctic to a summer arctic, temperature anomalies are likely to be much closer to the mean.  Once the temperatures reach equilibrium with the ice, the temperature anomalies are also likely to stay close to the mean. At least while there is enough ice. If sufficient ice is lost then the anomalies will jump up significantly.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #573 on: April 03, 2017, 02:40:10 PM »
Are the purple and mauve areas inside the 85 deg latitude, indicating 400 – 500 mm of thickness for real?

Or are they a false reading at the edge of the scan for some reason?
From what I have heard SMOS is supposed to be extremely accurate up to 0.5 meters, but that does look weird.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #574 on: April 03, 2017, 03:03:01 PM »
Are the purple and mauve areas inside the 85 deg latitude, indicating 400 – 500 mm of thickness for real?

Or are they a false reading at the edge of the scan for some reason?
From what I have heard SMOS is supposed to be extremely accurate up to 0.5 meters, but that does look weird.

They have been there all winter.  I believe the are artifacts of the North Pole hole ( sampling and interpolation errors ).

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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #575 on: April 03, 2017, 03:05:29 PM »
Definitely colder .

First,  thanks romett1 for this helpful update. I find it very useful.

 A nit pick if I may. It is not necesarilly colder, only less anomalously warm.  The Arctic is just as  warm as it was in the middle of winter, but the mean temperatures are catching up this year's temperatures.

Thanks. I'm thinking the same (less anomalously warm and mean temperatures are rising). I checked that GFS anomaly maps for Arctic mean 65°N - 90°N. So it includes land north of 65° as well. When it's colder than usual over northern part of Russia, Canada or Greenland, it brings the average down.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 03:23:08 PM by romett1 »

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #576 on: April 03, 2017, 03:32:45 PM »
Definitely colder .

First,  thanks romett1 for this helpful update. I find it very useful.

 A nit pick if I may. It is not necesarilly colder, only less anomalously warm.  The Arctic is just as  warm as it was in the middle of winter, but the mean temperatures are catching up this year's temperatures.

Thanks. I'm thinking the same (less anomalously warm and mean temperatures are rising). I checked that GFS anomaly maps for Arctic mean 65°N - 90°N. So it includes land north of 65° as well. When it's colder than usual over northern part of Russia, Canada or Greenland, it brings the average down.
Since I am waiting for the year summer temps spike significantly above the mean I agree with this analysis.  Whenever that happens you can say that the Arctic is effectively ice free.  I doubt it will be this year, but you never know.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #577 on: April 03, 2017, 08:31:49 PM »
BTW the thread to take the year-round ice free arctic discussion is this one: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,191.msg102977.html#msg102977

What I really want to know about this year is... when do we see the impact of this low volume situation? Last year we heard "rubble", "weak", "low volume", "melt ponds"... all the time, and didn't see the extent impacts I would have felt from such talk.

wili

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #578 on: April 03, 2017, 08:50:45 PM »
JO, what "extent impacts" were you expecting?

Ice that is "rubble"--something like a slushy--is going to be able to spread out faster and further more easily than an ice pack that is mostly made up of solid, multi-meter-thick ice slabs, right?

I suspect that most of our metrics are no longer measuring exactly what they used to be...we can get solid figures on various supposed measures of quantity more easily than we can get reliable estimates of overall quality of the ice.
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JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #579 on: April 03, 2017, 09:07:34 PM »
JO, what "extent impacts" were you expecting?

Ice that is "rubble"--something like a slushy--is going to be able to spread out faster and further more easily than an ice pack that is mostly made up of solid, multi-meter-thick ice slabs, right?

I suspect that most of our metrics are no longer measuring exactly what they used to be...we can get solid figures on various supposed measures of quantity more easily than we can get reliable estimates of overall quality of the ice.

Last year, I was expecting thin, spread out ice to... well, melt.

But rather than get into an argument about what the "Real state" of the ice is that our metrics can't measure... what I'd like to know is what people expect of the things our metrics can measure.

If we take it as given that the ice is much less thick than last year, that all the good ice went out the Fram, etc, what do we expect that to mean for the ice in June? As measured by ASMR2 or NSDIC or JAXA or your favorite measure.

Will we see a rapid cliff once some condition is met because the ice is too thin to resist? Or will we have a new-normal (2010s)ish melting season but... feel like it's thinner the entire time?  I understand that the weather matters and would be happy with someone saying something like "It's more likely we'll have a record low extent than we did with the same extent last year, because this year's ice is thinner".

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #580 on: April 03, 2017, 09:22:10 PM »
JO, what "extent impacts" were you expecting?

Ice that is "rubble"--something like a slushy--is going to be able to spread out faster and further more easily than an ice pack that is mostly made up of solid, multi-meter-thick ice slabs, right?

I suspect that most of our metrics are no longer measuring exactly what they used to be...we can get solid figures on various supposed measures of quantity more easily than we can get reliable estimates of overall quality of the ice.

Last year, I was expecting thin, spread out ice to... well, melt.

But rather than get into an argument about what the "Real state" of the ice is that our metrics can't measure... what I'd like to know is what people expect of the things our metrics can measure.

If we take it as given that the ice is much less thick than last year, that all the good ice went out the Fram, etc, what do we expect that to mean for the ice in June? As measured by ASMR2 or NSDIC or JAXA or your favorite measure.

Will we see a rapid cliff once some condition is met because the ice is too thin to resist? Or will we have a new-normal (2010s)ish melting season but... feel like it's thinner the entire time?  I understand that the weather matters and would be happy with someone saying something like "It's more likely we'll have a record low extent than we did with the same extent last year, because this year's ice is thinner".
JO, it's fun to guess, and it's fun to come up with every scrap of information we can find on the subject, but when it comes right down to it I don't think anyone has a clue what is going to actually happen.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #581 on: April 03, 2017, 09:28:37 PM »
JO, what "extent impacts" were you expecting?
<snippage>
<more snippage>
Will we see a rapid cliff once some condition is met because the ice is too thin to resist?
<and even more snippage>
I expect a cliff in 2-3 weeks as effective received insolation pushes past an average effective level of 3 KWH/Day/M2 at 85N and below. (Incident is already much higher). When that happens, the Barentsz, the Bering, the Kara, the Okhotsk and parts of Baffin and Hudson's bays will see dramatic melt backs.  We could see a solid week of century drops.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #582 on: April 03, 2017, 09:34:31 PM »
In addition to being  more susceptible to melt, the ice has less protection against export.
If it can flow this freely now, what about a month from now? Or two, three months from now?

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #583 on: April 03, 2017, 10:02:26 PM »
In addition to being  more susceptible to melt, the ice has less protection against export.
If it can flow this freely now, what about a month from now? Or two, three months from now?
I actually somewhat expect export to support extent - cause it to "run in place" - but reduce concentration.  I think the effects of export *now* will be more aparent *later* in the season, as in after June.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #584 on: April 03, 2017, 10:31:55 PM »
Last year, I was expecting thin, spread out ice to... well, melt.
...
I understand that the weather matters and would be happy with someone saying something like "It's more likely we'll have a record low extent than we did with the same extent last year, because this year's ice is thinner".
One winter morning, many years ago, I brought a chunk of ice that had frozen in a pot outside into the kitchen, and I had my mother, my daughter and I all guess how long it would take to melt entirely. I forget the details, but what I do remember is that it took a lot longer than we expected to completely melt out.

So, while the changes in the Arctic are rapid in the context of Arctic Sea Ice, I think we all underestimate how hard it is to melt the vast quantity of sea ice that currently exists.

So, yes, a lot is down to the weather, and the weather last year was not conducive to ice melt, but we weren't that far off a record regardless. When we have a year like 2007, or 2012, then we will have another monster record.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #585 on: April 03, 2017, 11:15:12 PM »
Quote
When we have a year like 2007, or 2012, then we will have another monster record.

2007 + 5 = 2012

2012 + 5 = 2017

Makes a guy go hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #586 on: April 03, 2017, 11:16:32 PM »
The ice keeps pushing back against the open water southwest of Novaya Zemlya. Given the wind forecast I think it's going to ice over again, so no super-unprecedented on that score. But we'll have to see what happens after that (that region only opened after the first week of May for years like 2011 and 2012).
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #587 on: April 04, 2017, 12:21:07 AM »
I wouldnt really expect a huge record this year.

Maybe we will beat the old record or get down to about 3.7m that would be my guess.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #588 on: April 04, 2017, 12:36:49 AM »
JimboOmega, this year is already objectively different from all other recent years by its winter PIOMAS results. I hope you call this a measurement even though it's mostly a model.
I expect 2017 to reach:
Record low volume with very high probability.
Record low area with high probability.
Record low JAXA extent with 50-50 probability.
Yes the weather can do all sorts of wonders, but at some point it's just average weather that brings the record.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #589 on: April 04, 2017, 12:53:18 AM »
Are the purple and mauve areas inside the 85 deg latitude, indicating 400 – 500 mm of thickness for real?

Or are they a false reading at the edge of the scan for some reason?

I think the spots around the pole hole are noise, there's generally a random spattering there

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #590 on: April 04, 2017, 01:46:28 AM »
I wouldnt really expect a huge record this year.

Maybe we will beat the old record or get down to about 3.7m that would be my guess.

Why?

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #591 on: April 04, 2017, 02:04:47 AM »
JimboOmega, this year is already objectively different from all other recent years by its winter PIOMAS results. I hope you call this a measurement even though it's mostly a model.
I expect 2017 to reach:
Record low volume with very high probability.
Record low area with high probability.
Record low JAXA extent with 50-50 probability.
Yes the weather can do all sorts of wonders, but at some point it's just average weather that brings the record.

To my mind:
2015 had a big thick chunk of ice in the Beaufort, and warm El Nino weather.

In 2016, the less thick chunk of ice had migrated to the ESS and Laptev, there was still warm El Nino weather, and a strong August storm dispersed a lot of ice to the South.

In 2017, the thick chunks of ice are gone, the El Nino weather is gone, and it seems like there's a 20% to 25% chance of a strong August storm.

I think the El Nino warmth had an effect on the Pacific side, but not much effect elsewhere.  So I'll guess that the minimum extent will probably be near the 2007, 2015, 2016 minimums, with a 20% to 25% chance of a strong August storm setting a new record.

I wonder if dispersal of ice to the South in early April would tend to cool off the southern oceans while leaving time for the CAB to rethicken?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #592 on: April 04, 2017, 03:29:22 AM »
The ice keeps pushing back against the open water southwest of Novaya Zemlya. Given the wind forecast I think it's going to ice over again, so no super-unprecedented on that score. But we'll have to see what happens after that (that region only opened after the first week of May for years like 2011 and 2012).
Nice having sunlight back to see what's actually going on.

Same time frame in Worldview suggests dispersion to me rather than any sort of freezing.

<click to animate>
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #593 on: April 04, 2017, 03:51:30 AM »
Using aqua-modis band-31 day, here's what I call "March to the Exit" - MYI passing out the Fram and Victoria strait into the Barentsz and Greenland seas to its doom.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #594 on: April 04, 2017, 04:07:08 AM »
Last but not least, some detail using Aqua Modis bands 7-2-1 that shows just exactly what happens when that ice reaches the "scorching" Atlantic heat influx we've been watching for the last 2 years.
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #595 on: April 04, 2017, 09:35:09 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Tuesday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Currently showing heat is starting to return next week - Chukchi, Bering, Beaufort, Barents and Kara seas warmer than usual. Next week colder over ESS, Siberia mainland and Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #596 on: April 04, 2017, 11:09:56 AM »
Grated cheese yesterday for a sandwich

However I squashed some in my hand and all back together again.

I think this dispersion is like that and will mean a slow start to 2017 melt season

It may actually help the ice short term but long term (in a few years) it will be gone,

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #597 on: April 04, 2017, 11:15:23 AM »
According to IMB buoy 2017A it's now sitting on ice over 1 meter thick:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221215

Current Buoy Data (04/03/2017):

Pos: 72.90 N, 147.10 W
Air Temp: -25.88 C
Air Pres: 1021.52 mb
Snow depth : 9 cm
Ice thickness : 102 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)

Snow surface accumulation: 9 cm
Ice bottom growth : 17 cm
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #598 on: April 04, 2017, 11:39:55 AM »
Last but not least, some detail using Aqua Modis bands 7-2-1 that shows just exactly what happens when that ice reaches the "scorching" Atlantic heat influx we've been watching for the last 2 years.
I am not sure this ice can last for the summer...

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #599 on: April 04, 2017, 11:59:38 AM »
One winter morning, many years ago, I brought a chunk of ice that had frozen in a pot outside into the kitchen, and I had my mother, my daughter and I all guess how long it would take to melt entirely. I forget the details, but what I do remember is that it took a lot longer than we expected to completely melt out.

So, while the changes in the Arctic are rapid in the context of Arctic Sea Ice, I think we all underestimate how hard it is to melt the vast quantity of sea ice that currently exists.
You should retry your experiment so that you don't keep the ice in the pot where it was frozen, but rather put it to float in a bathtub full of water a few degrees warmer than freezing, and keep the ice and water slightly in motion as well. That way you should find that the ice will melt a lot faster, as can be seen in the satellite images above.