The 2017 melting season

[romett1]

As A-Team is missing, I try to operate with gif's. Latest Hycom forecast Mar 8 - Mar 12. Notice Fram export, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

[Tigertown]

Using nullschool, the following images are the Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for 5 March 2015,2016,2017

I think the North Pacific is much cooler this year and that might favor a milder melting season.

You might want to look at a site that gives temps. just below the surface. Storms tend to cool the surface fairly quick.

[jdallen]

As A-Team is missing, I try to operate with gif's. Latest Hycom forecast Mar 8 - Mar 12. Notice Fram export, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

Notice also, not a lot of thickening, anywhere.

[Sterks]

This image pertains to the melting season thread. Day 64 2017 snow cover anomaly.
Regardless of the massive snowing this winter, there is an early beginning of spring in many locations of the northern hemisphere as last year. Less snow means more insolation in areas where it already does matters. It's still early but everything counts. An equivalent of FDD might be devised for land.

[wili]

Sorry if this has already been posted or if it's in the wrong thread here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/arctic-sea-ice-disappear-world-achieves-climate-target

Arctic sea ice could disappear even if world achieves climate target:

Goal of limiting rise in average global temperatures to below 2C may not prevent ice-free Arctic, scientists warn

Arctic sea ice could vanish in summers this century even if governments achieve a core target for limiting global warming set by almost 200 countries, scientists have said.

The ice has been shrinking steadily in recent decades, damaging the livelihoods of indigenous people and wildlife, such as polar bears, while opening the region to more shipping and oil and gas exploration.

Under the 2015 Paris agreement, governments set a goal of limiting the rise in average world temperatures to well below 2C (35.6F) above pre-industrial times, with an aspiration of just 1.5C.

“The 2C target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic,” James Screen and Daniel Williamson of Exeter University wrote in the Nature Climate Change journal after a review of ice projections.

A 2C rise would still mean a 39% risk that ice would disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summers, they said.

Ice was virtually certain to survive, however, with just 1.5C of warming.

Pretty impossible to stay within 1.5 C, now, right. And really not realistic that we could stay with in 2 C anymore for that matter. So...that's that.

[wehappyfew]

Here's a chart I made. I like it when R^2 is above .90... don't like the implications for ice melting.

It's the annual average of temperatures north of the Arctic circle, compared to the annual average sea ice. Temps from NCEP reanalysis, ice area from NSIDC. Both temps and ice area are shown as their anomalies from the 1979 to 2016 average.

2017 has only two months data, it is the last point to the far lower right, slightly above the trend line.

To get ice free summers... considering that summers have been declining faster than winter... I'm going to guess about 3-4 more degreesC of Arctic warming will give us ice free Aug, Sept and Oct.

With Arctic amplification running about 6 times the global average (using the same NCEP reanalysis data), we need only about 0.5 to 0.7C more globally averaged warming to get us there. Maybe 20 years at the current accelerating rate.

The first ice free minimum would happen much earlier... and that's important as a warning signal... but I see albedo feedback as the real killer here. The regular appearance of blue Arctic Ocean in August when the sun is still shining 24 hours per day... that's going to be awful to see.

[Jim Williams]

Sorry if this has already been posted or if it's in the wrong thread here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/arctic-sea-ice-disappear-world-achieves-climate-target

Arctic sea ice could disappear even if world achieves climate target:

Goal of limiting rise in average global temperatures to below 2C may not prevent ice-free Arctic, scientists warn

Arctic sea ice could vanish in summers this century even if governments achieve a core target for limiting global warming set by almost 200 countries, scientists have said.

The ice has been shrinking steadily in recent decades, damaging the livelihoods of indigenous people and wildlife, such as polar bears, while opening the region to more shipping and oil and gas exploration.

Under the 2015 Paris agreement, governments set a goal of limiting the rise in average world temperatures to well below 2C (35.6F) above pre-industrial times, with an aspiration of just 1.5C.

“The 2C target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic,” James Screen and Daniel Williamson of Exeter University wrote in the Nature Climate Change journal after a review of ice projections.

A 2C rise would still mean a 39% risk that ice would disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summers, they said.

Ice was virtually certain to survive, however, with just 1.5C of warming.

Pretty impossible to stay within 1.5 C, now, right. And really not realistic that we could stay with in 2 C anymore for that matter. So...that's that.

I am of the "the models are all bogus" mindset.  Give me something that explains what is happening now in term of the Industrial Revolution 200 years ago and I might find some value in the argument.  Until then, let's just stick with what is actually happening.

[wili]

Well, if we are going to make any claims that GW is going to be a major hazard to human and other life, we need to either model it or point to paleo-records.

Meanwhile, robertscribbler is chiming in on what is happening (or about to) in the Chukchi:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/warm-winds-take-aim-at-chukchi-as-arctic-sea-ice-volume-hits-record-lows-during-february-of-2017/

Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows

[jdallen]

Well, if we are going to make any claims that GW is going to be a major hazard to human and other life, we need to either model it or point to paleo-records.

Meanwhile, robertscribbler is chiming in on what is happening (or about to) in the Chukchi:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/warm-winds-take-aim-at-chukchi-as-arctic-sea-ice-volume-hits-record-lows-during-february-of-2017/

Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows

Time to officially shift my focus from "Refreeze" to "Melt" I think.

Scribbler's got good support from the GFS.  I've been watching the ensemble here, tracking 2M anomalies.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017030618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=788

While we can only be reasonably assured of stuff no more than 4-5 days out, what the implication of the later stages of the model suggest is a very high level of instablility in circulation, with major potential intrusions of heat from lower latitudes.

It appears the CAA and nearby CAB will remain colder, but even short term, it looks like these areas - Okhotsk, Barents, Western Kara, Bering, Chukchi and Hudson's Bay - are going to get hammered seriously by heat.  If the long term trend holds, it will continue.

[Tigertown]

Focusing on two areas. The Bering Strait and Sea, and the FJL and Svalbard Region.
March 5th vs. 6th

[nicibiene]

Sorry for being off topic  (a little) but do you already know this website of Ole Humlum? http://www.climate4you.com - maybe there is a thread for such links too?

It is full of VERY impressive graphics (includes all of shown here, compressed in impressive annual comparsion modes) and actual datas. A real treasure I will dive in today... 😊

[folke_kelm]

Nicibiene,

You have to be very carefull with Ole Humlum. He is a rather scary denier, publishing papers where he is calculating out the trend and blaming all remaining changes to climate to just...natural variations, claiming in public that he did show that climate change is fully natural. Some of his papers are totally bullshit, but here in Scandinavia he is the deniers hero, like Roy Spencer in US.

regards
Folke

[Pmt111500]

I haven't acquainted myself to Ole Humlum' stuff. Presuming he's one of the great number of people who like to think most of everything humans do is 'natural' so he'd be discounting quite a bit of human influence. "I just happened to find this petrol station and my credit card fits in the slot and I get this stuff that burns so brightly i'm blinded by it"-type of denier, possibly. Has someone classified deniers into sub-types? Could be an interesting (thpugh completely futile) intellectual exercise?

[gerontocrat]

Just thought all need to know that the Trumpocracy's first budget proposes a 26 percent cut in the NOAA budget (effective Oct 1).

War on climate science officially declared ?

[oren]

Sorry for being off topic  (a little) but do you already know this website of Ole Humlum? http://www.climate4you.com - maybe there is a thread for such links too?

It is full of VERY impressive graphics (includes all of shown here, compressed in impressive annual comparsion modes) and actual datas. A real treasure I will dive in today... 😊

A quick look at the site shows it's definitely denier stuff. All charts somehow twisted.

[Oyvind Johnsen]

Re Ole Humlum`s site: As a site, it is designed and written to support his denialist agenda. However, some of the graphs on the site are interesting enough, and he links to the actual, scientific sources. His comparisons of temperature data in the satellite period are worth a look. His labelling of satellite data as "quality class A", Hadcrut as "class B", and NOAA/GISS as "class C" is of course just ridiculous, but the graphs show the real data, anyway.
So deniers, of the sort who will suspect any graph presented to them by a "warmist", may discover that Earth is actually warming. (Perhaps a bit optimistic...)

[gerontocrat]

Well, if we are going to make any claims that GW is going to be a major hazard to human and other life, we need to either model it or point to paleo-records.

Meanwhile, robertscribbler is chiming in on what is happening (or about to) in the Chukchi:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/warm-winds-take-aim-at-chukchi-as-arctic-sea-ice-volume-hits-record-lows-during-february-of-2017/

Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows

No need to model or look at paleohistory for effect of GW on animals. GOTO sciencerecorder.com/news/2017/02/14/effectofclimatechangeonanimals. Or for a single example google "puffins in trouble".

It is not anymore so much about what will happen but what is happening.

[Tigertown]

The last six or seven comments don't belong in this thread. If there is no other place for a subject, try  the Open thread. PLEASE!

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost

[Shared Humanity]

The last six or seven comments don't belong in this thread. If there is no other place for a subject, try  the Open thread. PLEASE!

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost

Seconded. This thread is to discuss the 2017 melt season which, given the current state of the ice, will be a barn burner. Let's stay on topic.

[ipexnet]

The only significant (new) cracks I can see (beyond what has been seen in prior years, and beyond the laptev sea disintegration), is in the east siberian. The winds haven't been favorable for excessive cracks in the this area either, so looks to be just a factor of thin ice. Again, I really only go by the MODIS visual records as a picture is worth a thousand words. Generally the main pack looks in much better shape and must be liking the recent cold weather. Its the fringes that look terrible.  Still in awe at the data and scientific centric view of many contributors. The data (very weak) doesn't quite align with the visuals (even weaker) in my mind. So curious to see what the next few weeks provides. Any hint of winds from the beaufort or east siberian coupled with even normal heat might drastically change the picture 

[Tigertown]

March 5th 6th 7th from left to right. By warm water or whatever means, there is melting in the Bering.

[pauldry600]

And March 8th to 11th are only going to exacerbate the situation further going by climate reanalyzer forecast.

[rboyd]

March 11th looks really bad for the ice.

[DrTskoul]

Yikes.  The cold has taken a vacation down south...

[jdallen]

March 11th looks really bad for the ice.

That's bloody astonishing and fairly high confidence as it is less than three days out.

[Tigertown]

 A look at one concentration forecast. I tend not to believe this play by play, but just to the effect that we can start to expect the condition of the ice to start going down overall.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE          March 9th-18th

[Adam Ash]

When you look at those concentration maps you get the impression that there is a lot of pretty solid ice in there. 

A remarkable comment by a traveller on an icebreaker in 2009 (way back then, even) found that while the normal ice condition maps indicated lots of multi-year ice, in fact the ice breaker which would normally cruise at 13.5 knots in open water, was able to sustain 13.0 knots through that multi-year ice which turned out to be very broken ice offering virtually no resistance to sailing.  I doubt if things have improved since then.

Seven surprising results from the reduction of Arctic Sea ice cover | David Barber | TEDxUManitoba


About 7:40 into the video.

So while the satellites may say its solid-ish, it is in fact pretty mushy and hence very prone to physical and thermal damage.  This confirms our impressions of the overall pack over the last season.

[Thomas Barlow]

Russian researcher, Irina Orlova's, FB post, setting up camp in at the N. Pole for 2017.
Click 'not now", if it asks you to sign up for FB, and click "See Translation" to get the general idea:
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1237228086346338&id=100001774757853

[Tigertown]

Adam Ash

So while the satellites may say its solid-ish, it is in fact pretty mushy and hence very prone to physical and thermal damage.  This confirms our impressions of the overall pack over the last season.

No doubt, close ups would show that. These are the best we can do for now.

[Neven]

Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

[jai mitchell]

Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

today?

[romett1]

Recent winds have made ice edge quite fragile east of Svalbard and west of FJL.
Saturday morning 03:00 UTC is interesting - wind 28 m/s and exactly where ice is most fragile.
Images from earth.nullschool.net and https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

[DrTskoul]

Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

today?

Cute....

[RoxTheGeologist]

Both the pacific and the Atlantic look anomalously warm over the next week. That being said, both the Gulf of St Lawrence and the Eastern Bering Sea look to be rather cold. It doesn't matter for extent if the Arctic is +20 Centigrade above average, it is still below freezing. I'll state the obvious: if the areas where ice can form are cold extent will increase despite the anomalously warm temperatures. It's why SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss. 

[gerontocrat]

Dear Rox the Geologist,
You write that SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss.
In the short term I agree. For those who are dedicated to the subject I also agree.

But as a measure for showing visually to the general public where we are it is one of the best we have, even though it hides the much higher loss of volume.
And it is sea ice extent that determines insolation.

Horses for courses ?

[romett1]

Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

Strongly agree!

[romett1]

Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 9 - Mar 16. Still losing precious green and yellow (3 - 4 m thick ice) to Fram Strait. Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.
Images https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

[RoxTheGeologist]

Dear Rox the Geologist,
You write that SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss.
In the short term I agree. For those who are dedicated to the subject I also agree.

But as a measure for showing visually to the general public where we are it is one of the best we have, even though it hides the much higher loss of volume.
And it is sea ice extent that determines insolation.

Horses for courses ?

Yes, I agree, however it's also very easy for deniers to use SIE to obfuscate the true measure of losses as increases in extent happen, even if its just a thin skin of ice.

[jdallen]

Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.

The ice on the Bay has been pretty thin all season.  Most striking to me though is the Foxe Basin, which typically gets quite thick, and previously would retain ice year over year.  It seems to me it may melt out early this year.

[Jim Hunt]

Russian researcher, Irina Orlova's, FB post, setting up camp in at the N. Pole for 2017.

Thanks Thomas. See the traditional dedicated thread:

"Barneo 2017"

[jdallen]

Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 9 - Mar 16. Still losing precious green and yellow (3 - 4 m thick ice) to Fram Strait. Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.

For contrast, I think it is worthwhile to remind everyone what HYCOM thought the ice looked like last year at this time:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016030718_2016030800_041_arcticictn.001.gif

[DrTskoul]

Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 9 - Mar 16. Still losing precious green and yellow (3 - 4 m thick ice) to Fram Strait. Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.

For contrast, I think it is worthwhile to remind everyone what HYCOM thought the ice looked like last year at this time:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016030718_2016030800_041_arcticictn.001.gif

With the caveat that year over year color comparison with Hycom are to be taken with a grain of salt, YIKEs!

[jdallen]

With the caveat that year over year color comparison with Hycom are to be taken with a grain of salt, YIKEs!

Try this on for size.

[oren]

It doesn't matter for extent if the Arctic is +20 Centigrade above average, it is still below freezing. I'll state the obvious: if the areas where ice can form are cold extent will increase despite the anomalously warm temperatures. It's why SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss.

Obvious but still worth repeating, especially if dispersing winds support the cold temps.
And as we are discussing the Arctic becoming seasonally ice-free, max winter extent remains almost the same while min summer extent drops sharply. So in summer SIE is a good measure. In winter probably the best measure is PIOMAS volume.

[jai mitchell]

Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

today?

Cute....

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v2.1.csv

2017,    03,  05,     14.447

[Tigertown]

That does appear to be the max. and it does seem that melt momentum is building. Welcome to the 2017 melting season. Have your ticket stubs ready.
March 11th

[jai mitchell]

Love Song for the Holocene

[pccp82]

i have only been looking at this stuff for about 5 years now.....but the early heat in Siberia is impressive and is something I will be keeping an eye on.

[Lord M Vader]

If the current forecast runs from ECMWF and GFS holds, the Arctic will have a tough go for the next 10 days. And a significant ice export through Fram seems likely.

I'm however, NOT inclined to agree that the maximum has been reached! This for the reason that northerly winds likely will dominate for the next 10 days. OTOH, warmer than normal conditions will be in place over the fringe zones which likely will reduce the ice extent.

[Rick Aster]

There is a broad area of fragile-looking ice in the south of the Sea of Okhotsk. Maybe that was the maximum extent. It's hard to guess.