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Iain

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #350 on: March 21, 2017, 10:42:42 PM »
<no off-topic stuff in this thread, especially when related to Donnie Tiny Hands. Take it elsewhere; N.>
« Last Edit: March 21, 2017, 11:50:11 PM by Neven »
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #351 on: March 22, 2017, 04:24:04 AM »
A couple areas that are noteworthy today.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #352 on: March 22, 2017, 07:20:33 AM »
A couple areas that are noteworthy today.

Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.  The Hudson starting to come apart is a little unexpected, and not at the same time.  Ice there in spite of recent cold temperatures has never had a chance to really set up and is quite a bit less solid and less thick than I've seen previously (which admittedly is only 5 years...).

Both breaking open will increase insolation uptake at a point very early in the melt season.

It implication of that from the Hudson is not that great.  Ice leaving the Kara is much more troublesome, as it will introduce heat at high latitude and eliminate ice which buttresses both the CAB and Laptev.  Admittedly the Barentsz is more important for the CAB, but it all works together, and without some integration we will see albedo reductions in the high arctic even with out melt ponds, as peripheral ice melts, and permits the main pack to disperse.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #353 on: March 22, 2017, 07:38:24 AM »
EOSDIS image, aqua-modis, palette squashed to 230-255K, white to green/black (hottest)

The largest concentration of thickest MYI in the arctic lies in the center of the field of view, mostly between N. Greenland and the Pole.

It is fractured to a faire-the-well, poised to get pushed into the FJL/Svalbard/Fram killing ground, as it is pounded by the strong persistent westerlies roaring around the low pressure systems spinning into the CAB from the N. Atlantic.

Not a good way to start things.  I wouldn't expect to see ice like this until at least June.

(Edit: replaced the original screen shot as it turned the > 255K regions white.  Link:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(opacity=0.44,palette=green_1,min=228.7,max=256.5,squash),Coastlines&t=2017-03-21&z=3&v=-1178165.0457067718,-1091186.6011562506,1607114.9542932282,338317.3988437494
)
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #354 on: March 22, 2017, 09:22:18 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows again bit higher anomalies until next Wednesday.
Kara, Laptev and ESS warmest, but heat also extends to North Pole and Beaufort.
From Sat - Wed strong winds over Barents Sea.

Sam

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #355 on: March 22, 2017, 09:24:15 AM »
Jdallen,

This just really became apparent on the 21st.

https://go.nasa.gov/2nAl97Z

If you use the video tool and run it from the 13th to the present, it is clear that the transport of this ice to the Fram is already underway in a big way.  :o

It appears that we may see truly dramatic changes in the ice over the next week.

P.s.  I find it hard to imagine with this sort of ice movement having the Barneo ice camp happen at all this year.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 09:42:22 AM by Sam »

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #356 on: March 22, 2017, 09:48:58 AM »
Your profile has been released, Sam.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #357 on: March 22, 2017, 10:22:11 AM »
I find it hard to imagine with this sort of ice movement having the Barneo ice camp happen at all this year.

It seems the 'copters are grounded in Khatanga by weather at the moment:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.msg107203.html#msg107203

Maybe the search for a solid floe will start tomorrow?
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #358 on: March 22, 2017, 10:53:43 AM »
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.
That to me is the most noteworthy event in the Arctic right now. I've made an animation of the ice retreat south of Novaya Zemlya for the last 8 days:



Given the current wind and temps forecast this is going to continue for at least another week.

And so the big question becomes: Will this freeze over again when the winds reverse?

It did back in 2011 and 2012, but this time the retreat will go further, I expect.

2011:



2012:



When things closed up again, they stayed that way until mid-May. Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #359 on: March 22, 2017, 12:13:01 PM »
Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.

I'd noticed that too Neven:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-220245

The Hamburg Uni processing pipeline seems to be gummed up at the moment, but this is how things looked yesterday:

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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #360 on: March 22, 2017, 01:03:16 PM »
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.
That to me is the most noteworthy event in the Arctic right now. I've made an animation of the ice retreat south of Novaya Zemlya for the last 8 days:
...
When things closed up again, they stayed that way until mid-May. Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.

And its not just the retreat, its the loss of density of all the pack shown in the image...  wow!  Ten more days, the ice could be literally diving into summer!

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #361 on: March 22, 2017, 03:04:05 PM »
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.
That to me is the most noteworthy event in the Arctic right now.

I am also very concerned about the ice, north of Greenland:

The largest concentration of thickest MYI in the arctic lies in the center of the field of view, mostly between N. Greenland and the Pole.

It is fractured to a faire-the-well, poised to get pushed into the FJL/Svalbard/Fram killing ground, as it is pounded by the strong persistent westerlies roaring around the low pressure systems spinning into the CAB from the N. Atlantic.

Not a good way to start things.  I wouldn't expect to see ice like this until at least June.

« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 04:07:50 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

sondreb

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #362 on: March 22, 2017, 03:12:29 PM »
As a follow-up to the post by jdallen, I made an animated gif of the same view (March 20-21, varied to get less clouds) for 2013-2017, 5 sec delay between images.

(Another note: Have accounts been deleted? Deleted automatically when inactive? Couldn't find my account and made a new one)

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #363 on: March 22, 2017, 03:35:33 PM »
Your new profile has been released, sondreb, so you can post freely now.
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Sam

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #364 on: March 22, 2017, 03:52:37 PM »
The Russian Expedition sent two mil 8 helicopters out to begin searching for a stable flow for ice station Barneo on Sunday. They report that they reached Severnaya Zemlya from Krasnoyarsk.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/03/russias-north-pole-camp-making

The video about the airdrome being open is from 2016.

https://www.facebook.com/BarneoRu
http://www.ag24.ru/news/206-Iz-Krasnoyarska-do-Severnogo-polyusa

With the tremendous fracturing and ice movement all around the pole as the ice sheet rotates, it is hard for me to imagine how they will find ice stable enough to build the ice station this year.

https://go.nasa.gov/2nBHVvU

Perhaps it is fortunate that the weather turned when it did. Two weeks later and the ice station might have been under construction as the breakup began. They might well have lost another An-74 to the ice.




Rick Aster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #365 on: March 22, 2017, 04:15:43 PM »
The Russian Expedition sent two mil 8 helicopters out to begin searching for a stable flow for ice station Barneo on Sunday...
I think it's been mentioned a couple of times, but readers wanting to keep up with Barneo will be interested in the Barneo 2017 thread. http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.0.html

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #366 on: March 22, 2017, 04:18:44 PM »
From last entry of Judah Cohen blog, this speculation I think of interest here, worth being taken into account. Interesting that he does take as valid the excess in accumulated snow (depth, not extent) in Siberia and Canada shown by the models.

Longer term, the global environment favors mild temperatures for the coming months.  The Arctic remains exceptionally warm, aided by record or near record low sea ice; land and ocean temperatures also remain near record warm temperatures.  The only boundary forcing that I can think of that may contribute to relatively cool temperatures is snow cover across the NH.  The amount of snow covering (in mass not extent) the NH is the highest observed over the past twenty years or so.  I hope to be able to tweet out this week a graph of the snow mass this winter across the NH.  A deep snowpack across Canada and especially Siberia will retard warming at least across the high latitudes of the continents that may be transported episodically to lower latitudes.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Sam

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #367 on: March 22, 2017, 04:32:44 PM »
Rick,

Thank you.  I had not found that thread.

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.

Sam

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #368 on: March 22, 2017, 06:14:24 PM »
From last entry of Judah Cohen blog, this speculation I think of interest here, worth being taken into account. Interesting that he does take as valid the excess in accumulated snow (depth, not extent) in Siberia and Canada shown by the models.

Longer term, the global environment favors mild temperatures for the coming months.  The Arctic remains exceptionally warm, aided by record or near record low sea ice; land and ocean temperatures also remain near record warm temperatures.  The only boundary forcing that I can think of that may contribute to relatively cool temperatures is snow cover across the NH.  The amount of snow covering (in mass not extent) the NH is the highest observed over the past twenty years or so.  I hope to be able to tweet out this week a graph of the snow mass this winter across the NH.  A deep snowpack across Canada and especially Siberia will retard warming at least across the high latitudes of the continents that may be transported episodically to lower latitudes.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

While my previous posts re: impending ice age due to runaway NHEM snowcover may be both insane and wrong (but possibly not!), I think that if it is correct, it is making itself quite obvious already...

Consider that this winter New York City has seen over 30" of snow (slightly above normal) while having one of its warmest winters on record (I believe top 5). Not only that, but this follows the same situation last year (32", even warmer I believe).

We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #369 on: March 22, 2017, 06:26:41 PM »
For max snowfall you need a warmish atmosphere with lots of water vapor and temperatures around freezing. Too cold and rel humidity is lower and snow flakes are too small. Around and little above zero C flakes are at their largest and depth builds quickly. A little warmer and it's rain... no I do not see that happening....a ton of snow that melts quickly....

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #370 on: March 22, 2017, 06:45:14 PM »
The very high snow cover extent is a double egged sword. If the spring is cool it will likely help to benefit the sea ice. OTOH, if the spring is going to be warm or very warm it could yield a very big river runoff with fresh water to the Arctic basin, just like it did back in 2012 if my memory is correct.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #371 on: March 22, 2017, 07:01:49 PM »

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.

Sam


jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #372 on: March 22, 2017, 07:20:28 PM »

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.

Sam

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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #373 on: March 22, 2017, 07:24:35 PM »
For max snowfall you need a warmish atmosphere with lots of water vapor and temperatures around freezing. Too cold and rel humidity is lower and snow flakes are too small. Around and little above zero C flakes are at their largest and depth builds quickly. A little warmer and it's rain... no I do not see that happening....a ton of snow that melts quickly....
IDK about that; yes that is the case for places like NYC that get 30" of snow in an average winter, but further north, even with the warming we have seen, areas 42-43N+ are almost always substantially below freezing from November through March.

Indeed, you are correct that at 0C things become perilous for frozen precipitation, but the thing is, even with the blazing reds of the anomaly maps, Siberia/Canada/the northern tier most everywhere is still very far from reaching that mark (except for Svalbard/areas adjacent to the newly-opened-Arctic Ocean, where the year-round climate has seemingly shifted towards Oceanic vs. Arctic).

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #374 on: March 22, 2017, 08:04:25 PM »
Also: WRT the accuracy of the northern hemisphere snow charts, it would seem to me that the pattern shown on 3/21 would match the recent papers showing a decline in Eastern Himalayan snowfall (and plateau in central Himalayan snows) concurrent with a dramatic rise in the western portion. I would posit that this is directly related to increasingly open sea area in Kara/Barentz (due NW of the Western Himalayas/Turkey/Iran, all of which have seen collossal amounts of snow this winter), perhaps combined with very warm sea temps in the Arabian & Indian Oceans.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #375 on: March 22, 2017, 08:44:26 PM »
For max snowfall you need a warmish atmosphere with lots of water vapor and temperatures around freezing. Too cold and rel humidity is lower and snow flakes are too small. Around and little above zero C flakes are at their largest and depth builds quickly. A little warmer and it's rain... no I do not see that happening....a ton of snow that melts quickly....

Agreed.  That has been the recent history.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #376 on: March 22, 2017, 11:33:54 PM »
Anyway I remember maps with similar positive anomalies last year in Eastern Siberia and disappeared pretty abruptly. In fact a heat wave in May or June started last years ESS bite. Its really unpredictable.
Models hinting for that Beaufort high forming in five days and coupling with a strong Laptev low for two or three days. We may see some wind-driven sea ice drift clockwise in the Beaufort sea after all ( though the underlying Gyre ocean current seems dead to me, not the slightest displacement this year so far).

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #377 on: March 22, 2017, 11:51:14 PM »
The very high snow cover extent is a double egged sword. If the spring is cool it will likely help to benefit the sea ice. OTOH, if the spring is going to be warm or very warm it could yield a very big river runoff with fresh water to the Arctic basin, just like it did back in 2012 if my memory is correct.

Make that a quadruple edged sword, since fall/winter snow will serve to both trap extra heat in the ground and keep the sea ice from growing as rapidly.  Also the extra Siberian snow cover associated with WACC supports wavier jet, disrupted vortex and associated increases in heat/moisture.  The extra snow is a positive feedback that speeds up the demise of Arctic winter power, etc.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #378 on: March 23, 2017, 12:59:35 AM »
...
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that?  I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C.  It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #379 on: March 23, 2017, 02:53:12 AM »
...
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that?  I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C.  It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.
No, that is not my contention -- I am saying that the current amount of warming combined with the increasingly open Arctic Ocean results in more snowfall. Currently this results in relatively small opportunities for negative temperature anomalies (like last fall, where the +++snowfall in areas that don't normally see it so early resulted in very negative departures across much of Asia in October/November).

Eventually, if this feedback continues to amplify, I suspect it could lead to much more dramatic cooling by way of albedo effect. But we are most definitely not yet at that point and it may not even exist (though I suspect it does).

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #380 on: March 23, 2017, 03:19:34 AM »
...
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that?  I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C.  It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.
No, that is not my contention -- I am saying that the current amount of warming combined with the increasingly open Arctic Ocean results in more snowfall. Currently this results in relatively small opportunities for negative temperature anomalies (like last fall, where the +++snowfall in areas that don't normally see it so early resulted in very negative departures across much of Asia in October/November).

Eventually, if this feedback continues to amplify, I suspect it could lead to much more dramatic cooling by way of albedo effect. But we are most definitely not yet at that point and it may not even exist (though I suspect it does).
I wanted to reply to this, but so as not to derail this thread,
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1932.0.html

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #381 on: March 23, 2017, 07:25:54 AM »
Crossposting from IJIS-thread:

NSIDC has called the min max now which occurred by March 7: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-at-record-low/

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #382 on: March 23, 2017, 10:08:31 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) now shows larger anomalies until next Thursday.
Also Kara Sea goes windy starting Saturday, meaning no chance of refreeze there in near future.
Kara, Laptev and ESS as usual warmest, also Beaufort and North Pole warmer than usual.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #383 on: March 23, 2017, 12:35:39 PM »
On the IJIS thread, JDAllan mentioned the expected formation of melt ponds on the ice around June. But given the severely fragmented nature of the ice pack this season what are the chances of melt ponds of any size forming? 

Instead, will not a more fractured pack offer significantly more 'side' to low angle insolation than the comparatively homogeneous / continuous ice pack of old?  That flow side will have high albedo but that won't help, as it will simply reflect a fair share of incident radiation downwards, into the surrounding water and onto other 'sides' nearby where the energy received will simply chew away at the sides of each floe.   

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #384 on: March 23, 2017, 12:41:13 PM »
Jaxa sea-ice drift graph shows considerable sea-ice drift south out of Baffin Bay. Significant?
Weather-forecast.com indicates probable massive ESE movement of ice into open water Monday Tuesday Wednesday next week. This observer is not finding anything to indicate any reason for melting to slow down yet.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #385 on: March 23, 2017, 12:42:54 PM »
Yes the pack is fragmented, but the individual pieces are still quite large. Don't forget a flow that is only 1 pixel will still be many kilometres across. Melt ponds will be on the 10's to possibly 100's meters scale. There's several order of magnitude there.

Not until the flows break up to around the melt pond scale will side melt make a major difference.
The pack may be shattered, but it's still almost all top and bottom melt.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #386 on: March 23, 2017, 08:35:32 PM »
is there a metric for daily or weekly sea ice mobility anomaly?  this would be very useful when the Arctic turns into a single gyre.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #387 on: March 23, 2017, 09:33:19 PM »
is there a metric for daily or weekly sea ice mobility anomaly?  this would be very useful when the Arctic turns into a single gyre.
Nevö höörd nevöevö... never heard of such a thing. People still believe thaere's weather.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #388 on: March 24, 2017, 12:50:07 AM »
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?

 There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...




  The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.

   And if the pattern ends soon then there is still well over a month left of weather cold enough to somewhat heal the tears on the Russian side.

   But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?

  A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?

   If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?

   Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?

   Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2017, 01:22:36 AM by slow wing »

epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #389 on: March 24, 2017, 03:00:48 AM »
(I tried to post this earlier, but it didn't work. Scaled it down and trying again...)

Pan-Arctic Gyre firing up?

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #390 on: March 24, 2017, 05:32:59 AM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

I always enjoy "watching" the spring flood of the MacKenzie River in early May.  In recent years, it has produced a burst of early warmth into the Beaufort.  About the same time, we may also start to see large forest fires in Canada and Siberia producing a burst of speculation about their effects on the climate and vice versa.

As others have mentioned, watching the Beaufort throughout the season is interesting.  In 2015, there was a large patch of thick ice that lingered and kept ice extent and area high there.  But that patch was rotating clockwise.  So in 2016, there seemed to be relatively thick ice in the ESS and Laptev that kept those seas from melting out until late in the season.  So I'll be watching those seas to see if they seem to be melting out earlier this year.

Next I'm fascinated by the break up of the fast ice along the northern edge of the Canadian Archipelago.  Winds from Russia across the pole tend to pile up thick ice there during the winter, and then in summer winds and currents may carry the ice west to the warm Beaufort or east through the Fram strait, leaving impressive cracks along the shore.  And last year there were many good images of the ice being pushed south through the straits in the archipelago.

Climate Reanalyzer is a favorite tool for watching remnants of Pacific Typhoons blow through the Bering Strait and rile up the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.  Also the regular series of storms that blow up through the North Sea and pull ice through the Fram Strait.  People get very excited when a strong low pressure system lingers in the Arctic Ocean.  A strong storm in 2012 and another last year seem to have been quite effective at dispersing ice to the south and generally cracking the ice and pushing sea water on top of the ice.

And in late August and early September, you'll watch the progress of boats through the Northwest and Northeast passages.  You may end up reading some history of some of the early multi-year attempts at navigating the Northwest passage.

More than just the weather, there's a lot of geography, history, physics, economics and geopolitics going on as well.  And talking about the weather is kind of a natural lead in to some of these other subjects.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #391 on: March 24, 2017, 09:10:45 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Friday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev and ESS, also Beaufort and Northern Canada warmer than usual.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2017, 10:44:37 AM by romett1 »

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #392 on: March 24, 2017, 11:17:08 AM »
If Hycom is right, there is a very big section of ice that looks like it is leaving Baffin Bay.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #393 on: March 24, 2017, 01:13:27 PM »
If Hycom is right, there is a very big section of ice that looks like it is leaving Baffin Bay.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

And Fram...

Cate

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #394 on: March 24, 2017, 01:39:48 PM »
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #395 on: March 24, 2017, 02:21:25 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #396 on: March 24, 2017, 02:28:31 PM »
Three animations taken from one of Worldview's sea ice concentration layers (AMSR2 12 km resolution), of the last thirteen days.
First one shows the retreat of the ice at Kara sea.
Second one shows the dispersion of the ice over Fram, Svalbard and Barents in general. In the last two frames, some retreat (or rather melting?) of the ice  near Svalbard and Fram can be observed,
The last one shows an interesting feature forming in Bering sea ice edge during the last few days, its formation not following the general drift of the ice at Bering sea. This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait, more aligned with the Asian coast. Hycom shows ocean flow in that location and direction precisely.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #397 on: March 24, 2017, 02:28:49 PM »
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132

Is it normal for that much of the Northwest passage to have such thin ice? With that large crack, it almost looks as if it is open for business.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #398 on: March 24, 2017, 02:32:06 PM »
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?

 There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...

  The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.

   But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?

  A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?

   If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?

   Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?

   Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.

This looks a dangerous pattern indeed. If the anticlockwise forcing from low pressure systems continues then the chances of hot gulfstream water sweeping right around the top of europe onto the ESAS this summer are multiplied. This would effectively multiply the killing front where ice is being gobbled and surface low salinity surface waters are mixed away that has thus far been extending its grasp past Svalbard but blocked in recent years by FJL. If it gets well in place and a "pan Arctic CCW Gyre" sets up we could even see Pacific waters pumping in through Bering straight in Autumn to extend the Halocline killing front into a full Arctic Circle Whirlpool. ???
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #399 on: March 24, 2017, 02:33:17 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.


If we are depending on the Beaufort to be the strong ice for the upcoming melt season, we are pretty well screwed.