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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #400 on: March 24, 2017, 02:45:58 PM »
Nice Work SIS, you posted while I was typing,  :o

 
Quote
This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait,

Looks like this surge is pumping a big flush out of Bering in that third Animation.
I've often wondered if there is a periodic resonance effect in the Bering in/out flows. If storm surges in from the atlantic side match the tidal resonance of the Arctic basin then it could make Bering look pretty interesting.  ::)
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Buddy

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #401 on: March 24, 2017, 03:05:12 PM »
<snip, off-topic and too much caps lock (with colour no less); N.>
« Last Edit: March 24, 2017, 05:11:54 PM by Neven »
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #402 on: March 24, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.


And we have drift forecast like this for Monday. Tuesday is pretty much the same or even worse.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #403 on: March 24, 2017, 03:55:20 PM »
seaicesailor thanks. Freaking awesome animations.


If we are depending on the Beaufort to be the strong ice for the upcoming melt season, we are pretty well screwed.

If you completely ignore the lack of multiyear ice, the Beaufort looks great compared to the rest of the Arctic.
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #404 on: March 24, 2017, 04:57:18 PM »
Meanwhile the circulations of the less visible stuff above at this point below.
850hpa ~1.2km , 500hpa ~6km , 70hpa ~18km , 10hpa ~30km

There appears to be now a hole right through the roof of the dawn.
The counterclockwise rotations are stacked from  sea level up to 30km over the Arctic lows. And even higher I suspect. Notice the temperature is at its lowest in the 30km altitude where I have marked the green circle at 70 and 10hpa altitudes. The stratosphere starts where the temperature is lowest and rises with altitude from there. This area above the Kara and Severny Island looks like it has the updrafts from the resident lows starting to shear away, but likely still rising at 30km up. Producing this cold spot due to expansion of the rising air. The 10hpa world looks completely different to a month or two ago. Then the coldest place was above the equator, and the warmest the poles. Now the opposite. Almost anyway, the warmest spot is where I've marked with the red squiggle on the 10hpa pic above the nth Pacific. A toasty -37C ! There appears to be a third stratospheric polar Vortex establishing at this point. Descending air from even higher up? There is a pretty warm big and deep low directly below it but in the 12-18 km altitude range at that location there's a very big jetflow sprawling out into the warmest region in the 12-18km atmosphere. Over CAA and Greenland.

Very stable and unbending rivers air below aligning with the big 3-18 km altitude 30 -70 degree nth or sth meandering jets that have established. Like the Southerly blast coming up the Atlantic from off Americas east coast ound 30deg nth thats been established for  days through the whole nth sea.
We had one like that 2 weeks ago in NZ. The easterly Trades just bent and came straight down off fiji 2500km nth of here. And met a river coming 3000km from the SSW straight up off Antarctica. No "weather systems" circulating, but A 100yr flood every night for 4 days.  And gale force winds without a cyclonic driver. :o
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Rick Aster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #405 on: March 24, 2017, 05:28:36 PM »
When I look at thickness maps and satellite images of Beaufort and Chukchi seas, the ice looks smoother than I can remember ever seeing anywhere on the ocean, almost like a bigger version of lake ice. I'm not sure that impression is valid because of issues of scale. Smooth level ice is smooth on a 10-meter scale and I'm looking at more like a 10-kilometer scale. Also, the appearance of smooth ice could just reflect the new absence of multi-year ice and perhaps less vigorous cracking during the winter. With that caveat, if the ice there actually is as smooth as it appears, that could mean early melt ponds and early melting.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #406 on: March 24, 2017, 07:31:52 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.


If we are depending on the Beaufort to be the strong ice for the upcoming melt season, we are pretty well screwed.
The Beaufort isn't thick enough.  Most of the ice there is under 2M.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #407 on: March 24, 2017, 10:32:47 PM »
An open access paper from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition:

"Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes in the upper ocean under Arctic sea ice"

Quote
Oceanic heat flux is weakly positive in winter over the Nansen Basin during quiescent conditions, increasing by an order of magnitude during storm events. An event of local upwelling and mixing in the winter-time Nansen basin highlights the importance of individual events. Spring-time drift is confined to the Yermak Plateau and its slopes, where vertical mixing is enhanced. Wind events cause an approximate doubling of oceanic heat fluxes compared to calm periods. In June, melting conditions near the ice edge lead to heat fluxes of O(100 W m−2). The combination of wind forcing with shallow Atlantic Water layer and proximity to open waters leads to maximum heat fluxes reaching 367 W m−2, concurrent with rapid melting.
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Cate

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #408 on: March 24, 2017, 10:34:22 PM »
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132

Is it normal for that much of the Northwest passage to have such thin ice? With that large crack, it almost looks as if it is open for business.

I was told that Nares usually opens in July. If you compare this same period from previous years, you can see how different the whole strait looks this year. The famous arch is key---will it hold or not? And will other arches be able to form with the ice in that state?

dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #409 on: March 24, 2017, 10:52:14 PM »
I think a fair amount of ice north of the Nares has been busy sliding towards the Fram instead of pressing on the arch, a trend which looks set to continue.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #410 on: March 24, 2017, 11:08:40 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.


And we have drift forecast like this for Monday. Tuesday is pretty much the same or even worse.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

How can we have drift like this and not have large Polynya open up along the Kara Sea coast? It's been continuously warm-ish there (per cci-reanalyzer) and the 30cm/sec is 25km/day - more than enough to be visible on satellites.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #411 on: March 24, 2017, 11:23:19 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.


first time since long that i don't share your thoughts, that's a "dream" IMO, nothing has healed and once spring set on there will no resistance. further i don't believe in any homogenous 2m ice in the beaufort, if at all it's compresse ice sticking up or overlapping at times. i cannot imagine any scenario that exactly beaufort wouldn't melt this year, not that all the MYI is gone elsewhere or for good.

each year in this time when nothing big happens there is are a lot of ideas popping up that never hold a few weeks later. the greyhounds are in the startbox and can't wait to be released LOL

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #412 on: March 24, 2017, 11:44:34 PM »
I wasn't really saying that the Beaufort ice is that great compared to what it should be, only by comparison to the rest.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #413 on: March 25, 2017, 02:19:45 AM »
According to this map, the transportation of sea ice through Nares is just a small part of a much larger picture in that region. If this graph is correct, the entire sea ice cover of the Baffin Bay has started to move en masse to the Atlantic Ocean leaving behind either tiny ice veneer or open water. If so, it is no surprise that ice then can move easily out of the Kennedy Canal and the Nares Strait to the Northern Baffin Bay which is opening as ice there is also moving out. These are very large areas, indeed, to be lost barely after the spring equinox has occurred. Anyone comments how early we are with ice loss in the Baffin Bay? A friend from Nuuk (capital of Greenland) yesterday wondered from where they are getting those huge snowstorms as there are nearly 2-metre snowpile on roadsides. Best to view in scale 300% or 400% on your Internet browsers: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2017032318_2017032100_046_arcticictn.001.gif

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #414 on: March 25, 2017, 02:46:57 AM »
Yes, Baffin ice is really moving along.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #415 on: March 25, 2017, 09:02:24 AM »
I find the passive microwave (AMSR2) brightness temperature layer on worldview good for seeing movement on larger scales. As I have pointed out before, the colour scale (which fluctuates a lot) is not telling us much or is just too complex to interpret but it shows up recognizeable features which let you track the ice through cloudy weather.
https://go.nasa.gov/2ofX4zZ
 

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #416 on: March 25, 2017, 09:15:39 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Saturday.
"Heatwave" extends into April over Kara, Laptev, ESS and towards North Pole.
Kara Sea is interesting to watch - wind speed 13 - 16 m/s over open water today and tomorrow.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #417 on: March 25, 2017, 11:03:32 AM »
Drift north of Greenland and Lincoln Sea today. I used Worldview, Brightness Temperature (Band 31-Night).

Jim Hunt

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The Buoys Are Back in Town
« Reply #418 on: March 25, 2017, 11:30:57 AM »
The buoys are back in town. Or in the Beaufort Sea actually:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):

Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (03/23/2017):

Pos: 72.82 N, 146.61 W
Air Temp: -24.66 C
Air Pres: 1012.43 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 93 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017):

Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

See also: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/Data.php
« Last Edit: March 25, 2017, 11:39:09 AM by Jim Hunt »
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #419 on: March 25, 2017, 11:33:52 AM »
I find it all rather alarming that Siberia seems to be consistently warmer than normal. Also when looking at uni bremen there are blue patches appearing everywhere.

Ill be very impressed if there is anything more than the lowest on record this year.

the odds must be 100/1 at least.

Neven

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Re: The Buoys Are Back in Town
« Reply #420 on: March 25, 2017, 12:44:10 PM »
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

Wow, a whole 8 cm of bottom growth. So much for resistance to disintegration.  ;)
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #421 on: March 25, 2017, 01:18:27 PM »
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132

Is it normal for that much of the Northwest passage to have such thin ice? With that large crack, it almost looks as if it is open for business.

I was told that Nares usually opens in July. If you compare this same period from previous years, you can see how different the whole strait looks this year. The famous arch is key---will it hold or not? And will other arches be able to form with the ice in that state?

I'm not talking about Nares Strait. I'm shocked by the condition of the Northwest passage that you can see on that image.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #422 on: March 25, 2017, 01:34:28 PM »
Thanks for the info about bouy Jim.
Strange location to place that buoy, being short of funding they risk to gather like .... four months of data.
Who knows, last year Laptev sea ice, a usual "goner", did not completely melt being less than 2m (and 1m much of it) FYI. It was sealed, was cloudy and cold, it is the closest example I can come up with of the importance of (absence of) albedo feedback.
I guess this is what makes the 60% of that paper :P

Iain

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #423 on: March 25, 2017, 01:39:29 PM »
Visual confirmation the ice is moving along the full length of Nares strait and Robeson channel, however the grain size of the ice in the CAB is still too large to enter.

Meanwhile Parry channel, a conduit for ice getting through the CAA to enter Baffin bay, is still blocked between Somerset and Devon islands by an arch of ice. In 2016 it didn't break until 2nd of July. One to watch.
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PSJ

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #424 on: March 25, 2017, 03:10:21 PM »
Does anyone know where to find HYCOM/CICE forecasts after March 21? It seems the usual page has not updated for some days.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

Tigertown

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Re: The Buoys Are Back in Town/ The 2017 melting season
« Reply #425 on: March 25, 2017, 03:15:36 PM »
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

Wow, a whole 8 cm of bottom growth. So much for resistance to disintegration.  ;)
Not only that, look at the overall thickness: 93cm....
If the ice there is that much less thick than it is supposed to be, what about the rest? I think their calibration of sat. data got threw off.

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #426 on: March 25, 2017, 04:15:43 PM »
When I look at thickness maps and satellite images of Beaufort and Chukchi seas, the ice looks smoother than I can remember ever seeing anywhere on the ocean, almost like a bigger version of lake ice. I'm not sure that impression is valid because of issues of scale. Smooth level ice is smooth on a 10-meter scale and I'm looking at more like a 10-kilometer scale. Also, the appearance of smooth ice could just reflect the new absence of multi-year ice and perhaps less vigorous cracking during the winter. With that caveat, if the ice there actually is as smooth as it appears, that could mean early melt ponds and early melting.

Indeed, even if the impression of smoothness is exaggerated, the preponderance of first-year ice means the Beaufort is extremely vulnerable to melt ponding this year.  Less fracturing than usual could result in the melt ponds persisting longer before draining.  That might be even more damaging than the early open water in Kara, though perhaps less so than above-average Fram Strait export.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #427 on: March 25, 2017, 10:11:35 PM »
Still looks like a new minimum this year.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #428 on: March 26, 2017, 12:01:46 AM »
Does anyone know where to find HYCOM/CICE forecasts after March 21?

It seems to be up to March 24th now.
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Hyperion

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pinning the tail on the donkey
« Reply #429 on: March 26, 2017, 01:15:59 AM »
Its pretty obvious that on the battlefield direct observations would benefit our understanding and eliminate a lot of uncertainty in the situation that satellite and models are creating.

Introducing the Maui Dolphin / Emperor Penguin data acquisition system. A little something I prepared earlier as a cheap and easy to manufacture and deploy ROV that can travel at up to 30kph and to ~150m depths with long term independent of pickup and maintenance capability due to solar and wave energy power generation. And surf riding high speed transit capability.
Dimensions as per namesakes.
 Estimated cost under $2000, sensors extra.
Anyone want to crowd fund some? Lets start a thread. We can make extra money by hiring them out to Webpilots in their sparetime. Moderator riding shotgun of course.  8)
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slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #430 on: March 26, 2017, 03:09:27 AM »
Terrific, Hyperion!

Yes, start a thread please.

The greatest of respect to the many dedicated scientists, technicians etc. who are already providing the experimental information we rely on to understand the state of the Arctic.

Having said that, it's a disgrace that we don't have more coverage; a disgrace that we need inadequately calibrated models for the currents, water temperatures and salinities, etc - as well as information on the ice and snow state and thickness.

   Smart probes for the Arctic are difficult to fund even while smart bombs are streaming off the assembly lines.

   More broadly than your particular solution, it makes a lot of sense to have a thread on the future experimental program for monitoring the Arctic.

   Better in"Policy and solutions" or in "Science"?

   I had a look previously and couldn't find an existing thread. (Did I just miss it?)

   So there were a series of posts in the "What the Buoys are telling" thread kicking off with this one from me and then with those more knowledgeable and experienced posting valuable content.

Maybe all that can be moved to a new dedicated thread for e.g. "Existing and proposed experimental apparatus and programs for the Arctic" and add your stuff and other proposed solutions?
« Last Edit: March 26, 2017, 03:15:38 AM by slow wing »

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #431 on: March 26, 2017, 03:34:41 AM »
Yes, Baffin ice is really moving along.

Thanks Tigertown, for validating my interpretation of US Navy map.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #432 on: March 26, 2017, 09:20:59 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) is now forecasting bit higher anomalies until next Sunday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev, ESS and is heading towards North Pole later.

dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #433 on: March 26, 2017, 05:02:31 PM »
Looking at the DMI 80n graphs temps consistently start rising around day 100, whats the primary driver behind this, increase in solar energy?

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #434 on: March 26, 2017, 05:10:01 PM »
Looking at the DMI 80n graphs temps consistently start rising around day 100, whats the primary driver behind this, increase in solar energy?
I would think so, especially due to the angle of incidence of the solar energy, by that time of year.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #435 on: March 26, 2017, 08:15:02 PM »
We've been told that DMI's 80N temperature is north-pole weighted, so the NP insolation after March 20th affects the reported temperature disproportionately.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #436 on: March 27, 2017, 12:45:25 AM »
Tropicaltidbits has a nice visualization of NOAA long-range CFS model and that is always interesting, even when the skill of this model in the Arctic is been challenged in the past and we must take the predictions with a grain of salt.
These are the weekly ensemble average of a large number of runs, of pressure and temperature.
Focusing only on the persistent features, the MSLP shows that the large low pressure anomaly finally gives way to a more usual pattern in April with a high in Beaufort and a normal flow south from the Eurasian continent toward Fram thru the pole.
This translates on temperatures that are going to be anomalously high in all Siberia and all Eurasian Arctic Coast. Anomalously persistent warmth in most of Canada too, coincidentally or not. A lot of snow in both continents might start suffer decimation.
Coldness persists on Nansen basin and Greenland sea, which is associated with the northerlies that unfortunately for the MYI will keep moving it inch by inch toward the Atlantic.
Only good news for the Bering sea.
What will happen with the Beaufort sea persistent high. Repeat of '15 and '16 ?
In general not good for the Arctic but that news as usual. All of this may well be crap (1008 hours of forecast!) but it is always enjoyable to speculate some especially when more crucial moments for the menting season is about to start.
Time will tell

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #437 on: March 27, 2017, 12:54:57 AM »
These cracks or shears or whatever are spreading and getting worse. They have no respect for the NP region either. Only the the thick, robust, durable, mighty, 93 cm ice in the Beaufort stands a chance against these. ;)

Hyperion

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Roundhouse punches from the ApocalyptoKraken
« Reply #438 on: March 27, 2017, 04:51:50 AM »
These Total Precipitable water maps look like theres seven water Giants wading Around the equator swinging tentacled fists under the cover of the jetsteam. In Nth and Southern Hemispheres each, three in the pacific, two per Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Every time the God Coriolis tries to deflect them, the following Kraken punches it back on course for the poles. The circulation has gone Feral! (or should that be Ferral?). Back flows seem to be at altitude. And Hadley seems history.

Quickstab at what this setup might mean numerically. Peer review and alternative approaches most welcome:
 ;)

1,680,000,000,000,000J
18.748 kg/sqm
200km x 50kmph (ballpark flow estimate) x 24hr = 240 000 sqkm = 240 000 000 000 sqm
240 000 000 000 sqm x 19 kg x 4200J = 19,152,000,000,000,000 Joules per day
=19.52 petajoules per day
Quote wikipedia:
"The petajoule (PJ) is equal to one quadrillion (10^15) joules. 210 PJ is equivalent to about 50 megatons of TNT. This is the amount of energy released by the Tsar Bomba, the largest man-made nuclear explosion ever."
"The gigajoule (GJ) is equal to one billion (10^9) joules. 6 GJ is about the amount of potential chemical energy in 160 L (approximately one US standard barrel) of oil, when combusted."
So about ten days of ApocalyptoKraken suckerpunches = 1 Tsar Bomba = 35 million Barrels of oil burned.
North pole at summer solstice gets 12.64 kWhrs per sqm. = 12.64 x 60mx 60s kJ / sqm = 45,504,000 J per sqm per day = 45 504 000 000 000J per sqkm per day.
19 152 000 000 000 000 / 45 504 000 000 000 = 420 sqkm of full midsummer insolation. About 4200sqkm of 10% absorbed as per bright white ice.
If we were to anticipate that in a few months time there might be twice as much water vapour per sqm incoming and 4000 km front of it crossing for flux calculation purposes, then it would be 80x this. So simular to 336 000 sqkm of normal midsummer insolation.
 (Neglecting other energy transported in the humid air of course. This probably of a far larger magnitude. Anyone want to do an estimate for the specific heat transport capacity of moist air column incoming, say flux area 1000km wide by 5km deep, velocity 50kmph?).
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #439 on: March 27, 2017, 05:24:40 AM »
@Hyperion

Just trying to understand here; what are you saying has changed dramatically about the TPW? Looking back a few years, this year seems to show only minor changes of late. Please clarify. 

P.S. If we get too deep into this, you are going to need to open a new thread in a new location, as opposed to renaming this one. I don't know how that is going to fly with Neven, but I guess we'll see.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #440 on: March 27, 2017, 07:16:00 AM »
these atmospheric river events are several days worth and transport water vapor on the order of 8X10^7 kg/s into the arctic.  Called Qr in the following paper http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sxl31/papers/Baggett_Lee_Feldstein_2016.pdf

there is a separate thread in the science section for this discussion. 
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1874.0.html
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slow wing

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Re: Roundhouse punches from the ApocalyptoKraken
« Reply #441 on: March 27, 2017, 08:41:29 AM »
Thanks Hyperion, I agree that it's interesting to look at the potential contribution of atmospheric water to Arctic sea ice melt so I will take you up on your 'peer review' offer...

...
Quickstab at what this setup might mean numerically. Peer review and alternative approaches most welcome:
 ;)

1,680,000,000,000,000J
18.748 kg/sqm
200km x 50kmph (ballpark flow estimate) x 24hr = 240 000 sqkm = 240 000 000 000 sqm
240 000 000 000 sqm x 19 kg x 4200J = 19,152,000,000,000,000 Joules per day
=19.52 petajoules per day
...
That's the specific heat capacity of water - the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of 1 kg liquid water by 1 degree Kelvin \ Celsius. Better to use the heat of evaporation as the "Total precipitable water" is almost all vapour (use "Total cloud water" option to see the small part that isn't) and can melt ice by condensing. This contribution to heating the ice is much larger than the heats from temperature changes.

Water properties here.
It's actually even easier to use the ratio of heats of vaporisation to fusion.
Latent heat of melting - 334 kJ/kg
Latent heat of evaporation - 2257 kJ/kg
Ratio ~ 2257 / 334 ~ 6.76. So each kg of water vapour can, by condensing, cause the melt of nearly 7 kgs of ice.

Expressed in scientific notation, you estimated 2.4e11 m^2 of moist air entering the Arctic per day, carrying 18 kg/m^2 of water vapour, so on multiplying you say about 4e12 kg/day of water vapour entering the Arctic.

From above, this could melt 2.4e11 x 18 x 6.8 kg/day ~ 3e13 kg/day of ice.

To see if this would be a relevant amount, we should ask how many kg of ice are in the Arctic?

From PIOMAS, we see that the volume of Arctic sea ice at the end of the freeze season is around 20 000 km^3 ~ 2e13 m^3. Ice weighs around 900 kg/m^3, so this is ~ 2e16 kg of ice.

On comparing the two, it would take several hundred days to melt all the ice at the assumed rate of ingress of water vapour and assuming a large fraction of it condenses to melt ice.

  As an initial impression, I would also say that the rate of ingress you assume is anyway much larger than would be typical, perhaps by an order of magnitude or more.


So this back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the ingress of atmospheric water vapour into the Arctic can't account for a large fraction of the yearly ice loss. However, it wouldn't be surprising if it contributed at the percent level or maybe up to a few percent of the ice loss.

Given the observed rise in atmospheric moisture beginning around the start of 2016, this could still mean a significant rise in sea ice loss by this mechanism.

Presumably this has been studied at a more rigorous level. Does anyone know of such a study and their findings?
EDIT: already answered and it has been studied. Thanks, Jai Mitchell.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 08:51:14 AM by slow wing »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #442 on: March 27, 2017, 09:49:25 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Monday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev and ESS and also higher temperatures over North Pole and Beaufort.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #443 on: March 27, 2017, 10:13:31 AM »
I find it all rather alarming that Siberia seems to be consistently warmer than normal. Also when looking at uni bremen there are blue patches appearing everywhere.

Ill be very impressed if there is anything more than the lowest on record this year.

the odds must be 100/1 at least.
My ballpark for the last several years has been a 1-in-4 chance of a new record each year. A lot really does depend on the weather.

While the low pressure systems over the Arctic recently have been pushing the ice away from the SIberian coast I've noted that the mean air temperature there has still been below freezing. So does that mean that open water results in a net loss of heat, or is there enough solar insolation after the equinox to see heat enter the Arctic Ocean?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #444 on: March 27, 2017, 12:14:42 PM »
I think that at this time, all new cracks refreeze, but will easily re-open soon (1 month?) and absorb sunlight with a very negative impact on ice for the whole summer, which overcomes any beneficial heat loss. It would be a different story if this happened in January.
Likewise, the absence of cracks on the American side for the time being is certainly a positive for the ice.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 12:35:28 PM by seaicesailor »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #445 on: March 27, 2017, 03:14:36 PM »
Here is the Arctic view of the fracturing across the entire 80N area. No assurance of stability in the pack.

Note the fracturing across the top of Greenland and deeper into the Arctic Ocean. A lot of mobility that does not seem ready to slow any time soon.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #446 on: March 27, 2017, 03:40:17 PM »
<snip; this off-topic rant has been copied and pasted to the 2017 sea ice extent and area data thread, next time I will just delete it; N.>
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 09:07:41 PM by Neven »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #447 on: March 27, 2017, 07:39:17 PM »
<snip; just this one time I've copied your off-topic rant to the What's new in Antarctica thread, next time I will remove your comment, keep it short and keep it to the point (ie the 2017 melting season); N.>
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 09:02:51 PM by Neven »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #448 on: March 27, 2017, 08:25:23 PM »
Hyperion this is good stuff but should be in some other thread, not sure which though. But this stuff ain't arctic melting season.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #449 on: March 27, 2017, 09:12:29 PM »
It took me almost 5 minutes to copy the off-topic and way too long comments by Buddy and Hyperion. I won't be doing that often as the melting (and NH gardening) season progresses. So again, my 'rules' (they are actually universal laws):

1) Every comment in the melting/freezing season threads should pertain to that subject. These are the most popular threads for readers who don't comment, so don't bother them with off-topic stuff.
2) If you have to be off-topic, be short.
3) If you're the third guy who wants to say something about the off-topic subject, say: Okay, guys, this is getting off-topic, let's go to this or that thread - or open a new one - so our discussions don't get lost and we don't bother others. It's a big forum.
4) In other threads you can go off-topic more.
5) Don't start discussions about these rules in the thread itself. PM Neven or go to the The Forum category.

It's a big forum. Don't try to stuff all your ideas, theories and opinions in this one thread. Many people come here to read about the latest near real-time news on the 2017 melting season, not about the implications, the consequences and the politics of it all. Show some respect.

Thank you, that was all.
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