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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #500 on: March 30, 2017, 06:48:17 PM »
Seems like Laptev Sea will see temperatures briefly exceeding the freeze point in the next 24 hours. Questonable if there will be any precipitation in form of rain or sleet there.

MusicScienceGuy

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #501 on: March 30, 2017, 07:01:59 PM »
Although JAXA is up a bit, it sure looks, to me, like the whole Arctic ice cap is amazingly thin; from Hudson's Bay, to Fram Strait, and especially to the whole north of Siberia area.
I hereby predict that large areas will start to drop below the 15% ice coverage level in these areas in the next couple of weeks and JAXA will dive.

If so, the followup question is, at what point will the mainstream media take notice?

Your thoughts?

dnem

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #502 on: March 30, 2017, 07:22:42 PM »
Although JAXA is up a bit, it sure looks, to me, like the whole Arctic ice cap is amazingly thin; from Hudson's Bay, to Fram Strait, and especially to the whole north of Siberia area.
I hereby predict that large areas will start to drop below the 15% ice coverage level in these areas in the next couple of weeks and JAXA will dive.

If so, the followup question is, at what point will the mainstream media take notice?

Your thoughts?

dnem

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #503 on: March 30, 2017, 07:23:03 PM »
Never.  Anything going on in the arctic will be treated as a curiosity and get cursory coverage.  Only unambiguously anomalous and hugely disruptive extreme weather in densely populated parts of the highly developed world will cause the MSM to take notice.

Sorry for the diversion from the thread.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #504 on: March 30, 2017, 07:51:09 PM »
Although JAXA is up a bit, it sure looks, to me, like the whole Arctic ice cap is amazingly thin; from Hudson's Bay, to Fram Strait, and especially to the whole north of Siberia area.
I hereby predict that large areas will start to drop below the 15% ice coverage level in these areas in the next couple of weeks and JAXA will dive.

If so, the followup question is, at what point will the mainstream media take notice?

Your thoughts?
I don't think thickness and volume are hugely worse of than the last few years according to this below. However, all these measures are within a margin of error, and not precise, that's why I like the big thick line on this one. More realistic assessment.
But still, among the lowest, and should be a warning sign. The media will report it, some will denounce it as hyperbole, others will overstate it, and make us all look silly. Fact is, it's not good, but not off the cliff quite yet (I say that as someone who was convinced we would head off a cliff this year... not sure yet. Won't know until July or August really. No-one will. It's a fun guessing game, but that's about all.)

http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent

dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #505 on: March 30, 2017, 07:57:17 PM »
@Thomas That graph doesn't line up with what I'd expect just based on the FDD anomaly delta between the two years.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #506 on: March 30, 2017, 08:26:43 PM »
The Arctic Penguin (PIOMAS) doesn't agree with DMI (at least as to the relation of 2016 ice volume to other years).
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #507 on: March 30, 2017, 08:31:19 PM »
Quote
The Arctic Penguin (PIOMAS) doesn't agree with DMI (at least as to the relation of 2006 ice volume to other years).

Yikeesss.  So we're about 10% below the record low level for this time of year.  That's not good...
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #508 on: March 30, 2017, 08:50:02 PM »
We should get a PIOMAS update within a week. I think volume should still be about 1,000 km3 below last year for the date. The melt season is going to be a bad one, but a couple weeks from now is a little early to expect it to really kick in with full force. Once it does get going, we might just find out how inaccurate some of the thickness charts are. Either way, the ice has very weak bonds to say the least, and when it gets torn apart, won't last long. Export will also flow freely this summer.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #509 on: March 30, 2017, 09:25:00 PM »
Latest forecast runs suggests more high pressure dominated weather in the foreseeable future. If easterlies over Canadian Arctic will emerge we might get an early opening of the Beaufort Sea. Seems like temps should start to rise significantly soon as spring emerges northward.

The thin ice in Berings Sea will likely survive for another 10 days before a cyclone might smash through the ice with a significant reduction in sea ice extent.

LRC1962

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #510 on: March 30, 2017, 09:46:31 PM »
I don't think thickness and volume are hugely worse of than the last few years according to this below. However, all these measures are within a margin of error, and not precise, that's why I like the big thick line on this one. More realistic assessment.
The Arctic Penguin (PIOMAS) doesn't agree with DMI (at least as to the relation of 2016 ice volume to other years).

In either case one factor is missed. As we have been seen throughout the freezing, a lot of MYI thick ice has been sent through the Fram. That means no matter how thick what ice is left is young ice. That means high saline/contaminated content in that ice because it takes a few ice to 'purify' it. that means if there turns out to be a big melt off this melting season, it can not last much longer then any other of the ice that is around.
Granted that is a predicated on weather conditions in that particular region.
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #511 on: March 30, 2017, 10:26:34 PM »
Seems like Laptev Sea will see temperatures briefly exceeding the freeze point in the next 24 hours. Questonable if there will be any precipitation in form of rain or sleet there.

Au contraire mon Ami  ::) . Snowing and sleeting its tits off I'm Afraid.

Its copping a roundhouse right hook from an Atlantic tropical water giant. below we have the images of 10kg/sqm flow of 100% relative humidity right up to at least 12km coming in off the continent at over 20 knots.
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #512 on: March 30, 2017, 10:34:40 PM »
Lower down and temps at 1000hpa - a couple of hundred metres off the ground.
This flow seems about 1000km wide. Anyone care to estimate how much energy its dumping?
Thats probably snow on the water, not refreeze people are noticing. And with all the photons being emitted by the water vapour as it freezes in the sky, It would not even surprize me if there were melt ponds.
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Cate

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #513 on: March 30, 2017, 11:41:49 PM »
Big low ripping up the ice at the moment. The Northwest Atlantic iceberg field is moving down into Titanic territory. Sea ice now extends hundreds of km east of Newfoundland, putting offshore oil-drilling operations into caution mode.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #514 on: March 30, 2017, 11:59:55 PM »
@Thomas That graph doesn't line up with what I'd expect just based on the FDD anomaly delta between the two years.

The Arctic Penguin doesn't agree with DMI (at least as to the relation of 2016 ice volume to other years).

All these measures are within a large margin of error, and not precise. They are just fairly good indicators of a general trend, not precision analyses.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 12:36:59 AM by Thomas Barlow »

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #515 on: March 31, 2017, 01:03:41 AM »
NB. JAXA graph shows a virtually continuous all-time lowest sea ice volume since the closing days of summer. Its easy to look at years in isolation (i.e. 2017) but the continuous lowest volume has been in place since the last August. Only very brief periods sea ice volume has been second worst. I would account these short periods 100% to uncertainties within the variable ice volume fluctuations and certain indicator of the lowest ever volume of sea ice - but an artifact only if JAXA model's assumptions had a systematic error (flaw) that exaggerated the ice volume reduction throughout this period (highly unlikely). Furthermore, the sea ice look is supportive of thin, soft, newly formed sea ice which has been bending and breaking easily throughout the winter. This taken into account, plus the close-to-sea-level altitude's unusual warmth (regular inversion of air temperature cooling from the surface rather than one of the past), rising methane levels and the air humidity over the entire Arctic, I do not consider JAXA sea ice volume model having any error and sea ice is truly as bad as it looks and as the models show. To hope otherwise, is just nothing more than a false Trumpian hope that there ain't anything wrong in the Arctic...

JAXA volume sitting all alone now for this year, well below former years. This chart has been trending about 1,000 to 1,200 km3 below PIOMAS. I am sure we are all looking forward to the next PIOMAS update, though maybe a little anxiously.

« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 01:23:46 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #516 on: March 31, 2017, 01:11:25 AM »
Latest forecast runs suggests more high pressure dominated weather in the foreseeable future. If easterlies over Canadian Arctic will emerge we might get an early opening of the Beaufort Sea. Seems like temps should start to rise significantly soon as spring emerges northward.

The thin ice in Berings Sea will likely survive for another 10 days before a cyclone might smash through the ice with a significant reduction in sea ice extent.

Not so sure easterlies are likely or needed. The South-Southwest flow in the jets (red arrow and higher altitudes) being belt driven by this big nth pacific low is strong from ~1km altitude to over six. Looks likely this BIG hammerblow of warm wet air is going to get caught in it and run the Beaufort and CAA. The indigenous Totem Pole TerrorHawk over the great lakes is just a feint. And a warning. Hi Veli 8).
Reckon that Bering ice is just flush-mush Vader. Its been streaming out of the Bering and melting constantly. Good chance that cyclone will rip it up PROPER within a week. ;D

3km altitude winds and Total Precipitable Water at all altitudes per sqm:
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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2017 Melting Season
« Reply #517 on: March 31, 2017, 02:17:46 AM »
Just in time LOL, the high was at around 1.6 Celsius / 36F

( and there is still water to see for weeks now and most of the time it was much more open water than right now )


What does the web cam in Barrow look like now?
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slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #518 on: March 31, 2017, 02:48:07 AM »
WorldView shows the big tears in the ESS and Laptev Sea and the exposed water gaps next to them.

Compare with last year on the same date: the outer boundary of the fast ice was still visible as a crack but the ocean side still had solid ice right next to the crack (albeit with some smaller fractures visible).

EDIT:
2015 was similar to last year.

A bit more action was seen in the Laptev in 2014 although less dramatic than this year and, again, there was no big water gap in the ESS.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 02:58:46 AM by slow wing »

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #519 on: March 31, 2017, 02:54:16 AM »
Much worse this year....

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #520 on: March 31, 2017, 05:51:01 AM »
Whatever the actual thickness of the thickest sea ice is, we can observe how it is flowing. It is headed to the Fram and has all season to get there. I can't imagine a situation like this ever happening before, with the thickest ice in the Arctic being this free flowing, and I don't see any surviving this summer. I think this to actually be much more important than whether or not the extent drops below 1 million km2.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #521 on: March 31, 2017, 07:39:58 AM »
Tigertown, There are still four ITP WHOI buoys reporting locations. Three in the Beaufort gyre 97, 98, 99 and  93 trapped into fast ice on the north coast of Svalbard.  The thing I find intriguing  is that none of the reporting buoys in the Beaufort gyre show the Northwest thick ice drift modeled in your last post. I have to believe buoys sending real time data over models in this case.
 I like to watch the temp /salinity contours but sadly we only have one of the above listed buoys still sending T/S profiles this year.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136

This buoy is sitting just North of McClure Strait and should show northward drift if the model was representing current conditions

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156
« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 07:50:26 AM by Bruce Steele »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #522 on: March 31, 2017, 09:05:08 AM »
Decent big high pressure at 1035 hpa to cover virtually the whole Arctic basin in about a week or so according to 00z op ECMWF run. Might push back some thick ice into the safe heaven again if the forecast holds :)

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #523 on: March 31, 2017, 10:08:16 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Friday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer).
Kara Sea still windy near Novaya Zemlya (where there is open water).
Also strong winds at Fram Strait Apr 6 - Apr 7 and near Bering Strait Apr 7.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 11:30:42 AM by romett1 »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 Melting Season
« Reply #524 on: March 31, 2017, 11:36:06 AM »
What does the web cam in Barrow look like now?

FYI it's now officially the Utqiaġvik (Barrow) web cam. What do you suppose this image proves?
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Rick Aster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #525 on: March 31, 2017, 03:27:41 PM »
On the northeast corner of the Bering Sea, the Nome Airport shows a temperature of 9 F, with the Weather Underground forecast temperatures -3 to 20 F for the next week before a warmup arrives. That's about 5 F below historical average. I would guess that would be cold enough to allow the Bering Sea ice extent to hold steady. The eastern Bering Sea is one of the few areas in the Arctic to be colder than average right now.

By contrast, farther north in Utqiagvik (Barrow) the temperature of -14.5 F is near average.

Cate

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #526 on: March 31, 2017, 03:35:52 PM »
Driven by that huge nor-easter, pack ice is moving into the harbour of St John's, Newfoundland today. This is very rare---I remember it happening in 1974, and maybe again in the 1980s.

https://twitter.com/PaulKinsman/status/847800660171120642

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #527 on: March 31, 2017, 03:58:05 PM »
Tigertown, There are still four ITP WHOI buoys reporting locations. Three in the Beaufort gyre 97, 98, 99 and  93 trapped into fast ice on the north coast of Svalbard.  The thing I find intriguing  is that none of the reporting buoys in the Beaufort gyre show the Northwest thick ice drift modeled in your last post. I have to believe buoys sending real time data over models in this case.
 I like to watch the temp /salinity contours but sadly we only have one of the above listed buoys still sending T/S profiles this year.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136

This buoy is sitting just North of McClure Strait and should show northward drift if the model was representing current conditions

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156
I really don't know what the explanation for that is. We are looking at a vast area here and it may just be a matter of exact location of the buoys. I know that the majority of the ice above Greenland and the CAA is moving toward the Fram.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #528 on: March 31, 2017, 04:02:11 PM »
Also, on HYCOM.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 04:13:50 PM by Tigertown »
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Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #529 on: March 31, 2017, 04:20:31 PM »
Tigertown, Maybe the buoys are too far west to be moving yet? I don't know. Will watch to see if they start going north over the next couple weeks .  The ice over Greenland is certainly moving towards the Fram. 

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #530 on: March 31, 2017, 04:34:13 PM »
Tigertown, Maybe the buoys are too far west to be moving yet? I don't know. Will watch to see if they start going north over the next couple weeks .  The ice over Greenland is certainly moving towards the Fram.
Also, it seems that the ice over the CAA is pulling free slowly from the one side, as opposed to all moving together.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2017 Melting Season
« Reply #531 on: March 31, 2017, 04:59:23 PM »
What does the web cam in Barrow look like now?

FYI it's now officially the Utqiaġvik (Barrow) web cam. What do you suppose this image proves?

Thanks. I was just curious since there was visible water at the beginning of melt season topic. Looks like now there isn't.
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 Melting Season
« Reply #532 on: March 31, 2017, 05:17:30 PM »
What does the web cam in Barrow look like now?

FYI it's now officially the Utqiaġvik (Barrow) web cam. What do you suppose this image proves?

Thanks. I was just curious since there was visible water at the beginning of melt season topic. Looks like now there isn't

I think that's because there's been not much to drive drift in any direction for quite a while. No upheaval / ridging either - that ice looks like you could sweep it off and play hockey on it.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #533 on: March 31, 2017, 06:17:34 PM »
This is pancake ice on Lake Michigan, but it too would look smooth from a satellite's perspective, and (even if thickened to 93 cm) I wouldn't be tempted to play ice hockey on it! 

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epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #534 on: March 31, 2017, 10:15:03 PM »
This is pancake ice on Lake Michigan, but it too would look smooth from a satellite's perspective, and (even if thickened to 93 cm) I wouldn't be tempted to play ice hockey on it! 

(from today's Earth Science Picture of the Day)

Neither would I - but I was looking at the webcam!

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #535 on: April 01, 2017, 12:04:14 AM »
Northern Hemisphere snow cover trend line for this year is starting to approach second lowest position:
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #536 on: April 01, 2017, 12:31:09 AM »
Northern Hemisphere snow cover trend line for this year is starting to approach second lowest position:
Looks like data differs substantially; the Canadians are showing about average extent but possibly still record volume.

I think there are four key areas of anomalies at the moment; on the plus side, far NE Siberia and Quebec/the hinterlands of the Hudson are all glaringly snowy at the moment, with purples now appearing in parts of these regions.

On the flipside, the western areas of North America and Russia are dominated by reds (and in the former's case, even yellows). Eastern Siberia near Okhotsk also appears to be suffering deficits.

I would posit that this heralds a very brutal melt season for both the Pacific and Russian sides of the Arctic in general, but particularly Bering/Chuchki/Barentz/Kara.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #537 on: April 01, 2017, 01:35:06 AM »
That snow is going to melt pretty fast this year....dont see it lasting... and record volume was very warm ground due to insulation...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #538 on: April 01, 2017, 01:48:11 AM »
That snow is going to melt pretty fast this year....dont see it lasting... and record volume was very warm ground due to insulation...
i think record volume is due to increasingly open arctic ocean (i.e. record low sea ice volume directly translates into record high NHEM snowpack volume), though i agree that the warm ground insulation is going to be a factor across the permafrost areas that continue to warm/melt (mostly Siberia). this is not the case in Quebec though.

i think that we will definitely see a plunge in overall extent and may end up with record overall lows but on the flipside, the situation re: sea ice may favor extended cover vs. normal in NE Siberia and especially in Quebec. this is because as we see less ice in the Arctic and as it melts out earlier, the first-year ice in Hudson Bay is likelier to outlive the ice further to the N, which (IMO) is likely to favor persistent cold air over the relatively lower-latitude areas of SE/Central Canada.

will be very interesting to watch the evolution this melt season!

TheUAoB

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #539 on: April 01, 2017, 02:13:44 AM »
That snow is going to melt pretty fast this year....dont see it lasting... and record volume was very warm ground due to insulation...
i think record volume is due to increasingly open arctic ocean (i.e. record low sea ice volume directly translates into record high NHEM snowpack volume), though i agree that the warm ground insulation is going to be a factor across the permafrost areas that continue to warm/melt (mostly Siberia). this is not the case in Quebec though.

i think that we will definitely see a plunge in overall extent and may end up with record overall lows but on the flipside, the situation re: sea ice may favor extended cover vs. normal in NE Siberia and especially in Quebec. this is because as we see less ice in the Arctic and as it melts out earlier, the first-year ice in Hudson Bay is likelier to outlive the ice further to the N, which (IMO) is likely to favor persistent cold air over the relatively lower-latitude areas of SE/Central Canada.

will be very interesting to watch the evolution this melt season!
I'm afraid, I think you're grasping at straws.  Hudson is looking pretty thin and temperatures have been pretty high there recently.  Why do you think Quebec is exceptional when it comes to the ground insulation effect of snow cover?

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #540 on: April 01, 2017, 02:43:59 AM »
That snow is going to melt pretty fast this year....dont see it lasting... and record volume was very warm ground due to insulation...
i think record volume is due to increasingly open arctic ocean (i.e. record low sea ice volume directly translates into record high NHEM snowpack volume), though i agree that the warm ground insulation is going to be a factor across the permafrost areas that continue to warm/melt (mostly Siberia). this is not the case in Quebec though.

i think that we will definitely see a plunge in overall extent and may end up with record overall lows but on the flipside, the situation re: sea ice may favor extended cover vs. normal in NE Siberia and especially in Quebec. this is because as we see less ice in the Arctic and as it melts out earlier, the first-year ice in Hudson Bay is likelier to outlive the ice further to the N, which (IMO) is likely to favor persistent cold air over the relatively lower-latitude areas of SE/Central Canada.

will be very interesting to watch the evolution this melt season!
I'm afraid, I think you're grasping at straws.  Hudson is looking pretty thin and temperatures have been pretty high there recently.  Why do you think Quebec is exceptional when it comes to the ground insulation effect of snow cover?

Hudson is relatively thin compared to the remnant multi-year ice but it is still thicker than almost the entirety of the Arctic Ocean. I think Quebec is exceptional because it is downwind of Greenland a large portion of the year, and combined with Hudson Bay, that leaves it as the region least vulnerable to warming in an AGW scenario (IMO).

Without permafrost, there is no damage underneath, either. In fact I am fairly sure Quebec has been persistently cooler than average at most times of year (but particularly summer) for the past few years, a glaring contrast to most other polar regions.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #541 on: April 01, 2017, 08:47:12 AM »
Bering Strait is also opening up as winds were from favourable direction (9 - 11 m/s).
So ice extent is same, but remaining ice pretty much wind-driven.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #542 on: April 01, 2017, 09:35:35 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Saturday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer).
Seems like starting from Wed we may see cooler temperatures across Arctic.
Still windy at Kara Sea, Barents Sea, Fram Strait and at Bering Strait.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #543 on: April 01, 2017, 10:21:37 AM »
The ice south of Novaya Zemlya is pushing back now:
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #544 on: April 01, 2017, 12:32:30 PM »
That snow is going to melt pretty fast this year....dont see it lasting... and record volume was very warm ground due to insulation...

GFS is showing substantial snowmelt in the MacKenzie and Ob catchments over the next week

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #545 on: April 01, 2017, 12:39:51 PM »
The ice south of Novaya Zemlya is pushing back now:

That's just the icecap exting the Fram and beyond.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #546 on: April 01, 2017, 04:57:52 PM »
The ice south of Novaya Zemlya is pushing back now:

That's just the icecap exting the Fram and beyond.
You're two seas and one strait off.
    The expansion in Barents looks impressive on the animation - and is likely to continue another couple days - but isn't so unusual for this time of year.
    Still too early to tell whether Kara will refreeze completely, but doesn't seem to be in the cards and for the coming week.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #547 on: April 01, 2017, 05:27:27 PM »
Ice mass balance buoy 2017A isn't updating daily like in the good old days. This is the latest available info:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Current Buoy Data (03/27/2017):

Pos: 72.81 N, 146.57 W
Air Temp: -26.78 C
Air Pres: 1019.21 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 96 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 11 cm
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #548 on: April 01, 2017, 05:49:04 PM »
I think "pushing" to be a good choice of wording for this side of the Arctic. Navy HYCOM shows an increase in drift, which no doubt pushed the ice in this direction faster than it could melt. You can see a shift throughout the pack in concentration toward this side. So it is definitely not to be confused with growth or refreezing.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #549 on: April 01, 2017, 06:27:40 PM »
@ all GFS-Fans

Some point to make:

At the momentan (or since March), GFS is strong cool biased in forecast (means it go a lot warmer then GFS has forecast in +168h) you can check this out here: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php so personally i do prefer ECMWF which is much better in mid range forecast. The other thing is a potential Snow-Cover-Forecast-Bias during Spring, GFS overeastimate snow melt, i think (since i observe it) its an issue with inversion weather on ground, if you want to see it on your on, see here: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-nh.php?run=2015030706&var=SNOD_sfc&hour=384

In some words:
06z analysis GFS from first april shows 17.81% Snow Cover of the NH
60h ago, GFS forcast 17.19% for this date, this is a bias to 1.60 Mio km^2

Its a huge bias on a short forecast time. So GFS-Snow-Forecast should be used with caution