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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #700 on: April 09, 2017, 12:19:58 PM »
And NH snow cover seems to be lowest right now:
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iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #701 on: April 09, 2017, 12:55:05 PM »
   ....
AWP also considers melt ponds mainly in May/June/July.
Counting them as additional open-water equivalent?  Or do you factor in any lensing effect, transmitting proportionately more insolation into the water beneath the ice ponds? 
     I have not seen any quantification, but if the amount is material, its heat signal could persist through the minimum and even early refreeze season.  That would corroborate Oren's "gut feeling."

Tealight, I personally don't believe in simplistic patterns like the one you mention, though I do believe 2017 will be a strong melting season. And I do also believe that AWP is extremely important. I have a gut feeling that the poor refreeze in autumn 2016 was very much related to the very high AWP throughout 2016.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #702 on: April 09, 2017, 01:14:42 PM »
A closer look shows the openings in the Beaufort are freezing over fairly quickly, not really unexpected this time of year, in my humble opinion.

Amundsen gulf on the right.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #703 on: April 09, 2017, 01:28:14 PM »
A closer look shows the openings in the Beaufort are freezing over fairly quickly, not really unexpected this time of year, in my humble opinion.

IMHO too. Hence my "as far as AMSR2 is concerned" proviso, and the "in 2016 the early open water mostly refroze over the next couple of weeks" at my link.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #704 on: April 09, 2017, 02:51:16 PM »
A closer look shows the openings in the Beaufort are freezing over fairly quickly, not really unexpected this time of year, in my humble opinion.

IMHO too. Hence my "as far as AMSR2 is concerned" proviso, and the "in 2016 the early open water mostly refroze over the next couple of weeks" at my link.

I'm actually finding the area extending NW from the coast of Alaska west of Utqiagvik interesting.  Looks like an "alley" of rubble.

Just bunch of back and forth in the Bering Strait.

Alaska in lower left corner.

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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #705 on: April 09, 2017, 02:55:37 PM »
Well, with so many excitable followers it almost impossible not to stray off topic. Especially online where a sense of etiquette ia often missing. Anyway, a little patience never harms.

On topic. An amoeba  of lows is swallowing a high...beaufort is on for some sunny skies...

I believe in patience as well which means we should insist immediately and patiently to the off topic commenter that they should take it to another thread. I will watch myself more closely as well. We all need to model this behavior for newcomers.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 03:02:43 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #706 on: April 09, 2017, 02:58:15 PM »
Open water (as far as AMSR2 is concerned) is appearing in the Beaufort Sea at almost exactly the same time as last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221357

These SIA charts are great for tracking the melt season in different areas of the Arctic. I expect this year will continue to track 2016 and end up, essentially ice free like last year.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #707 on: April 09, 2017, 03:04:42 PM »
The (relatively) lower temps are showing up on the DMI chart, nearing the mean for only the second time this year.
also, 2nd time since about day 255 last year (mid-Sept. 2016).
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #708 on: April 09, 2017, 03:11:27 PM »
If you look at all of the charts for these areas, 2017 looks fairly unremarkable when compared to the performance of recent years and considering the current weakened state of the ice. (The Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering the only exceptions.)

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png?attachauth=ANoY7cr3sTwdvxVHuIsm6SWW02mnEU9bViizovuYEhYIcsJDY-6_KIMmFh4UYZ1eSiff2IlyJfhjJflKPWYE_ymwuFRXQFe_ZEKLUsbPHx1EdkeYznlVjk4BuPWPBngVeUqiAD43Y5GZ0nP-mo58uHYqI3P2RCiLuWN1pNWkPWmDvuagoyqu0VFjBbNseRac7q5GOI5iaT-Pa7gndAkkEFlcBGU763yoXMRXRvyGkyL0X6aNxOXVWgWtjhP_FQmag7Lk4IhEOnQ_&attredirects=0

What does stand out for 2017 is the average thickness of the ice which should reveal itself early this year with rapid drops in SIE and SIA in the seas with anomalously thin ice compared to even last year. The Beaufort is one of these.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 03:16:37 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #709 on: April 09, 2017, 08:42:08 PM »
These SIA charts are great for tracking the melt season in different areas of the Arctic. I expect this year will continue to track 2016 and end up, essentially ice free like last year.

By pixel counting on the image uploaded below of NSIDC Charctic's 2016 September 6th, and removing spurious ice, (for extent, I don't know how I would do that with area), only 50.70% of the Arctic Ocean was free of ice (6,416 pixels of water vs 6,238 pixels of ice) at the 2016 minimum. However, using Wipneus's compactness graphs, we can multiply the area of ice by 0.5833... (using the data for the 6th) (edit uploaded below) and obtain the value for total sea ice cover of 3,638 and 5/6 pixels. Then, using a little bit of math, we obtain the value of 9015 and 1/6 pixels of water, and find the total Arctic Ocean water area to take up 71.24% of the basin. That's still 28.76% ice, which to me does not seem like essentially ice free. Perhaps once we get into the single digits we could talk about it being essentially ice free, however.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #710 on: April 09, 2017, 09:03:52 PM »
I was responding to Jim Hunt's graph about the Beaufort which was essentially ice free last year.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #711 on: April 09, 2017, 10:51:12 PM »
I was responding to Jim Hunt's graph about the Beaufort which was essentially ice free last year.
Ah, yes, the Beaufort was definitely in the single digits at last year's minimum ;D

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #712 on: April 10, 2017, 09:24:38 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Sort of interesting situation - mainland temperatures remain low, but Pacific side, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and North Pole significantly warmer than usual.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #713 on: April 10, 2017, 11:48:09 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Sort of interesting situation - mainland temperatures remain low, but Pacific side, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and North Pole significantly warmer than usual.

Sorry if this has been answered before, but are the values there for surface air temps? How are they calculated? Cheers
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #714 on: April 10, 2017, 12:14:53 PM »

Sorry if this has been answered before, but are the values there for surface air temps? How are they calculated? Cheers

They are surface air (2m) temps for area 65°N - 90°N. That includes for example northern part of Alaska, Northern Canada, Greenland, Svalbard, northern Scandinavia and northern part of Russia.
There are 4 estimates per day, 6-hour difference, so I calculate daily average. Days 5-7 have been rather incorrect, as actual temperatures turned out higher.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #715 on: April 10, 2017, 12:34:08 PM »
They are surface air (2m) temps for area 65°N - 90°N. That includes for example northern part of Alaska, Northern Canada, Greenland, Svalbard, northern Scandinavia and northern part of Russia.
There are 4 estimates per day, 6-hour difference, so I calculate daily average. Days 5-7 have been rather incorrect, as actual temperatures turned out higher.

Thanks for that. I wonder if it might be better to use 925hPa or maybe 850hPa temperatures now that we're in the melt season? The surface air temps will hold close to 0C regardless of heat input over much of the Arctic for the next few months, so it may not be of much use
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #716 on: April 10, 2017, 01:29:27 PM »
April 6-9

Used the "landcover" band to better show the clouds forming off the open water around Alaska.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-landcover-images?page=3&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B6%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1

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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #717 on: April 10, 2017, 02:39:40 PM »
They are surface air (2m) temps for area 65°N - 90°N. That includes for example northern part of Alaska, Northern Canada, Greenland, Svalbard, northern Scandinavia and northern part of Russia.
There are 4 estimates per day, 6-hour difference, so I calculate daily average. Days 5-7 have been rather incorrect, as actual temperatures turned out higher.

Thanks for that. I wonder if it might be better to use 925hPa or maybe 850hPa temperatures now that we're in the melt season? The surface air temps will hold close to 0C regardless of heat input over much of the Arctic for the next few months, so it may not be of much use

Both might be useful for different reasons. 2m anomalies will track the disappearance of sea ice and end of melt in a specific area and we will be able to witness the dramatic impact on surface temperatures. 925hPa will provide us with a more accurate assessment of intrusion of warm air masses.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #718 on: April 10, 2017, 03:53:03 PM »
Surface temps over the Arctic Ocean itself work just fine until about early/mid-May. After that, 925+850 temps are better. 850 temps also work better in the long range since they tend to be just above the boundary layer, where flow is smoother and easier to model (closer to "ideal" flow -- much the same reason 500mb height and height anomalies are used in the long range).

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #719 on: April 10, 2017, 09:04:26 PM »
not sure if this would be the best thread for this post but wanted to note that the March northern hemisphere snow cover anomaly is nearly tied for its lowest in the series.

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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #720 on: April 10, 2017, 09:16:16 PM »
not sure if this would be the best thread for this post but wanted to note that the March northern hemisphere snow cover anomaly is nearly tied for its lowest in the series.

That was last year, Jai. This past March it was almost dead average, which makes the bar difficult to see.

Right now, snow cover is lowest for the past decade (see top of this page), but not by a lot.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #721 on: April 10, 2017, 11:58:55 PM »
ahhh yes thanks, it was so close to average I missed the mark!  wouldn't be the first time!
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #722 on: April 11, 2017, 12:20:34 AM »
I checked that graph two days ago and wondered why this year's results for March still weren't in. Until I saw that tiny green speck.  ;D
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #723 on: April 11, 2017, 01:36:59 AM »
NSIDC SIE 106 km2
2017,    03,  25,     14.073                             2017,    04,  01,     14.126
2017,    03,  26,     14.107                             2017,    04,  02,     14.143
2017,    03,  27,     14.169                             2017,    04,  03,     14.227
2017,    03,  28,     14.178                             2017,    04,  04,     14.209
2017,    03,  29,     14.178                             2017,    04,  05,     14.114
2017,    03,  30,     14.181                             2017,    04,  06,     14.040
2017,    03,  31,     14.172

Last day below 14 million               2017,    02,  12,     13.898
Going down now:
2017,    04,  08,     13.993
2017,    04,  09,     13.875
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #724 on: April 11, 2017, 01:51:17 AM »
Amazing that it went from average to lowest in a single month.

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #725 on: April 11, 2017, 03:58:55 AM »
Uni-Bremen AMSR-2 site has been down over 16 hrs.  On top of losing Lance, I'm beginning to worry about our eyes getting put out.

Losing Lance-MODIS is devastating.

What if, I know this is paranoid, but what if instead of discussing how to cut emissions, they've been discussing how to deal with what is known by the public when/as it happens.

I don't want to be blinded.

I mean what if they came to some agreement that when it gets bad, everything goes dark?

If I were a politician, making sure everyone shows up for work Monday morning, and pays their bills, would be the highest priority.

I mean if I were totally morally corrupt like them.  They may see it as the greatest good.   
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 04:18:44 AM by Cid_Yama »
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #726 on: April 11, 2017, 05:21:06 AM »
@Cid
It might be hard for them to hide when people on the North-East coast of the U.S. start reporting icebergs floating by.

In the meantime, I have been depending on this:
www.polarview.aq/sic/arctic/
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #727 on: April 11, 2017, 06:49:55 AM »
Uni-Bremen AMSR-2 site has been down over 16 hrs.  On top of losing Lance, I'm beginning to worry about our eyes getting put out.

Losing Lance-MODIS is devastating.

What happened to LANCE-MODIS?
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #728 on: April 11, 2017, 09:37:02 AM »
I don't know but it's been like this for a few weeks:

https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic..terra.4km

It was my first port of call over breakfast. Much missed if it's not restored.

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #729 on: April 11, 2017, 09:38:09 AM »
Decided to try to find out.  Apparently they have replaced it with a new product called Worldview.

   https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-04-09&z=3&v=-5595136,-2551808,5595136,2551808


Thank God!  Didn't want to have to go through the summer without being able to see.  I guess one shouldn't assume. 

« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 10:01:35 AM by Cid_Yama »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #730 on: April 11, 2017, 11:59:31 AM »
Your right to be paranoid Cid.

I know a certain person who lives in a house that is white who wouldnt mind if all the Arctic Sea Ice and Polarviews just got inaccessible all of a sudden....and its not Santa

@Tigertown ... i love that site

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #731 on: April 11, 2017, 12:16:11 PM »
not sure if this would be the best thread for this post but wanted to note that the March northern hemisphere snow cover anomaly is nearly tied for its lowest in the series.

That was last year, Jai. This past March it was almost dead average, which makes the bar difficult to see.

Right now, snow cover is lowest for the past decade (see top of this page), but not by a lot.

I'm very keen to find out how w.Siberia, which took the WACCy hit in October of 7 months of snow in that month, melts out? I see no 'positive anom' over the region any more so it is starting to look like whatever WACC throws at the north it is not impacting the following melt season?

I worry that such snow cover ,early in re-freeze, protects the ground below from the rigours of an Arctic winter and so ,come melt ,leaves it prone to further degradation ( as we are seeing across Yamal?).
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #732 on: April 11, 2017, 01:17:57 PM »
Your right to be paranoid Cid.

I know a certain person who lives in a house that is white who wouldnt mind if all the Arctic Sea Ice and Polarviews just got inaccessible all of a sudden....and its not Santa

@Tigertown ... i love that site

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This one still online:

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #733 on: April 11, 2017, 01:37:41 PM »
Meanwhile average wind speed for the next 5 days. I'm wondering how much ice will survive this ride over Bering Sea.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #734 on: April 11, 2017, 01:58:46 PM »
Not sure but the wind speeds in Ireland are the same today and we are surviving :-X

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #735 on: April 11, 2017, 03:21:56 PM »
Uni-Bremen is back up.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #736 on: April 11, 2017, 04:13:50 PM »
Iceberg season in the North Atlantic is about two months ahead of schedule. Although these are not from sea ice, this article shows how the earliness is connected to sea ice reduction.

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/iceberg-threat-arctic-shipping-lanes?cm_ven=FB_WX_EC_41017_5&utm_medium=email&utm_source=website&cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=

Quote
The wild start to iceberg season fits with a pattern of rapid Arctic change that could alter access to the region. The sea ice minimum, usually hit in September, has decreased by more than 13 percent a decade since the late 1970s. That’s largely driven by the warm air and water invading the region due to climate change.

The region just had its third year in a row of record low winter sea ice and repeated bouts of warm air helping melt out ice. Warm ocean waters are also responsible for making the eastern Arctic Ocean more like the Atlantic. That could further shrink icepack, particularly in summer, allowing for easy navigation.

 Icebergs in the North Atlantic typically come from calving events off of Greenland’s glaciers, which are quickly melting due to rising temperatures.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #737 on: April 11, 2017, 05:49:44 PM »
Uni-Bremen is back up.


What's happening in the Hudson? Melt ponds? Is that atypical for this time of year?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #738 on: April 11, 2017, 06:29:59 PM »
Uni-Bremen is back up.


What's happening in the Hudson? Melt ponds? Is that atypical for this time of year?
The ice there didn't really get to thicken up much last winter. 2014, 2015, and 2016 all show it in a lot better shape at this point in the year.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #739 on: April 11, 2017, 06:35:29 PM »
I  think it was melt ponds, between 9 and 10th of April, there was a strong warm air advection above the hudson, perhaps it was enough for melt ponds, but today its replaced by cold air, so in the nxt update, it should be gone, if not, it was no melt ponds, more wind driven divergence of the sea ice there.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #740 on: April 11, 2017, 07:33:06 PM »
Those are not melt ponds.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #741 on: April 11, 2017, 10:59:24 PM »
Big positive anomalies coming back to the Arctic Basin, Kara and Barents Seas:

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #742 on: April 12, 2017, 12:00:24 AM »
Big positive anomalies coming back to the Arctic Basin, Kara and Barents Seas:

Even more crazy when you look at the temps themselves being forecast... since the baseline is rising rapidly this time of year.

The center of the patch in the central arctic is forecast to be above 0 C!

epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #743 on: April 12, 2017, 08:11:32 AM »
I wanted to relate that the worldview "Sea Ice Brightness Temperature" overlays make it all very real, to me at least, since they cut through the darkness and clouds to make it easy to see actual day-to-day ice migration across the arctic.

For what it's worth I used the above to make an amateurish video comparison of this year vs last for the Greenland/Atlantic quadrant for Mar 01 - Apr 11. It's at:



...Don't know if it will have the same impact on others as it did on me, but IMO the main takeaway is that if we thought that the ice was a) too warm and b) unprecedentedly mobile and c) headed in the wrong direction in 2016, then hold on to your hats - because so far, at least, 2017 looks much worse.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #744 on: April 12, 2017, 08:21:59 AM »
Good job on the video. Yes, you can tell the difference.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #745 on: April 12, 2017, 08:49:37 AM »
The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#Apr-12

Apart from confirming that March monthly extent was lowest in the satellite record there's also this:

Quote
New work by an international team led by Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska Fairbanks provides strong evidence that Atlantic layer heat is now playing a prominent role in reducing winter ice formation in the Eurasian Basin, which is manifested as more summer ice loss. According to their analysis, the ice loss due to the influence of Atlantic layer heat is comparable in magnitude to the top down forcing by the atmosphere.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #746 on: April 12, 2017, 08:52:02 AM »
Apparently they have replaced it with a new product called Worldview.

Worldview isn't new. It's been around for years:

http://econnexus.org/a-new-world-view-from-nasa/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #747 on: April 12, 2017, 09:02:53 AM »
The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

<snippage>

Quote
New work by an international team led by Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska Fairbanks provides strong evidence that Atlantic layer heat is now playing a prominent role in reducing winter ice formation in the Eurasian Basin, which is manifested as more summer ice loss. According to their analysis, the ice loss due to the influence of Atlantic layer heat is comparable in magnitude to the top down forcing by the atmosphere.

This is an unexpected and very bad finding.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #748 on: April 12, 2017, 11:40:41 AM »
I wanted to relate that the worldview "Sea Ice Brightness Temperature" overlays make it all very real, to me at least, since they cut through the darkness and clouds to make it easy to see actual day-to-day ice migration across the arctic.

For what it's worth I used the above to make an amateurish video comparison of this year vs last for the Greenland/Atlantic quadrant for Mar 01 - Apr 11. It's at:



...Don't know if it will have the same impact on others as it did on me, but IMO the main takeaway is that if we thought that the ice was a) too warm and b) unprecedentedly mobile and c) headed in the wrong direction in 2016, then hold on to your hats - because so far, at least, 2017 looks much worse.
Nice video, clearly reflects Fram export amount has been on the high side and a lot of ice is now being stationed in danger zone (anywhere around Svalbard, and  Greenland sea)
What the video cannot reflect is that the proportion of outgoing ice being more than 2 years old is higher this year than the past. Perhaps why it is surviving stationed near Svalbard for long time while last year it just vanished miles north of the islands. Sadly, because the overall MYI amount is supposed to be much smaller than last year's.

Meirion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #749 on: April 12, 2017, 02:07:37 PM »
If you click though the AARI map week by week over the last few months you'll see how much MYI has gone out the Fram - it's a lot

http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1