This one caught my eye in one of nearby threads, posted yesterday:
Is this real? Can there be any much error?
It is most definitely real and also explains why volume is at a record low.
Models are now emphasizing a sustained period of warmth across the Pacific side of the Arctic beginning shortly and extending/worsening indefinitely.
I have already mentioned how I believe this is connected to the very early melt of Bering/Okhotsk, and it appears that the ramifications of ^ will result in the same occurring over Chuchki/ESS, and potentially the Beaufort as well.
If you look at HYCOM/PIOMAS it is apparent that while there is a slight barrier of 2-3M ridged ice between Beaufort and Pacific inflows, this is totally absent along the Chuchki front. Last year saw some extremely thick ice in between the inflows & both peripheral seas, something we are almost lacking completely this year.
If we see sustained warmth as the models are now indicating, the ramifications will be quite dire for several reasons.
1) With the Bering already mostly ice-free, there is vastly heightened potential for Pacific inflows to push much farther into the Arctic than they ever have before. On PIOMAS the only year with ice thicknesses anywhere near 2017's in the aforementioned regions appears to be 2011.
2) With ice thicknesses already at record lows in the Chuchki/ESS, any heat intrusions have the potential to rapidly melt the little amounts of ice that currently exist. HYCOM and satellite already show areas of low concentration in these peripheral seas. If we see extended heat through to 6/1, we may be dealing with large portions of these areas taking up an unprecedented amount of solar insolation at the peak of summertime. Normally this energy would go into melting the ice, not warming up the water.
3) Increased Pacific inflow is likely to destroy the structural integrity (or whatever minimal amount remains) across Beaufort/the CAA. Beaufort's ice thickness is again at unprecedented low levels, though somewhat thicker than Chuchki/ESS. But it could and IMO likely will melt out completely this year, and as Chuchki/ESS melt out, the increasing areas of open water will likely lend themselves to heat intrusions of mounting substance from several perspectives.
4) The above directly relates to the fate of the ice in the CAA in that the fracturing of the Beaufort/ice adjacent to the CAA will allow the garlic press to activate *way* ahead of when it had in recent years. This means we could see much more freshwater and thick ice flush into Baffin Bay and, ultimately, this would disrupt AMOC circulation to a greater extent than we have seen in recent years.
5) Finally, the increased open water in peripheral seas during the height of NHEM insolation means that as cyclones drift north from Siberia during the summertime, they will likely intensify beyond levels previously seen, enhancing export out of the FRAM, at least while there is still ice to export. Besides enhancing export, heat transport into the Arctic is also likely to continue increasing. And as we enter late July and August, the sheer area of the Arctic Ocean that will be ice-free means that we are likely to see GACs far worse than the repeat events of last summer.
If the above holds to be true, last year may in fact have been the last instance of meaningful September sea ice. The PIOMAS maps are absolutely terrifying, not just because of the record-low volume, but because of where the worst anomalies are situated and what they entail for solar insolation during the months of June, July, and August. The situation is likely to result in superficial gains in Atlantic ice extent (as well as substantial freshwater export) continuing for a month or two, but this will all melt out by September anyways.