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nicibiene

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1100 on: May 05, 2017, 02:16:59 PM »
As you mention methane here I would like to ad an observation I made. (although a little OT) There are more and more SO2-spots to watch at nullschool-maybe also a product of that microbes and a sign of growing thawing methane hydrates-SO2 can be a product when microbes work under  anaerobic conditions. Also thought about a kind of whirlpooleffect of bubbling methane, regarding mixing usually temperature layers of the ocean...

I already shared that observation at stupid questions thread regarding eastern Siberia-now there are more spots at east coast of Greenland, some northern Canada and Alaska.

Made a compairing picture 2016/2017:



 
« Last Edit: May 05, 2017, 02:24:09 PM by nicibiene »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1101 on: May 05, 2017, 02:48:20 PM »
Interesting. It'd help much to have a legend for which concentrations correspond to those colors... How big is the difference, in ppb?

For ACI melting season, CH4 releases from land permafrost regions are quite a bit relevant thing, however, there is no massive "mode change". Last 3 million years or so, with long-term temperature trend being some -0.7°C every million year, there was gradual accumulation of clathrates in both land permafrosts and seabed deposits, overall. However, each summer during inter-glacials, land permafrosts had all the sunlight warming things up just like it happens nowadays, - i mean whereever snow cover was absent during the summer, of course, so no big difference in terms of albedo to present day. With summer snow cover gradually retreating, and accumulation of heat from year to year, certainly levels gradually rise. So while it is something we could talk about in terms of how much it affects this melting season in compare, say, to some 1980 or some 1750, etc, - this is relatively minor thing.

The ESS bothers me so much because until very recently (this century), ESAS usually remained ice-covered for much of the summer, which protected seabed clathrates from most of summer's direct insolation (ESS is shallow enough waters for that), and also kept whatever little CH4 is released from entering the athmosphere (most of it, anyway). On top of those differencies, CH4 emitted from land permafrosts has to move quite a distance to start doing its GHE over sea ice, some of it oxidizes on its way, wind often blows "the other direction", etc, - while CH4 which goes into the athmosphere right from the seabed is instantly there, starting to produce its GHE very moment it escapes water, if it's sunny weather. Which is why i dare write about ESAS CH4 concern in this topic, but not so much about land permafrosts (which are of course very important part for many other topics and matters other than this melting season, especially long-term).
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1102 on: May 05, 2017, 03:13:42 PM »
I note the DMI 80N temperature graph froze on May 2nd.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

RikW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1103 on: May 05, 2017, 03:14:47 PM »
When watching NASA worldview from the last 30/40 days I've got the feeling that reality is much worser than f.e. IJIS is showing or IJIS will drop really sharply in the next couple of weeks. Beaufort getting redding to just flush out of bering strait with some imagination.

Nares Strait/ Kane bassin just the same. With the right conditions, the ice will have an easy 1-way trip to south and be gone. Just cracks/ movement everywhere...

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1104 on: May 05, 2017, 03:24:16 PM »
As you mention methane here I would like to ad an observation I made. (although a little OT)....

I'd like to follow this topic more closely.  Which is the best thread for it?

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1105 on: May 05, 2017, 03:52:07 PM »
As you mention methane here I would like to ad an observation I made. (although a little OT)....

I'd like to follow this topic more closely.  Which is the best thread for it?
Try:-
Arctic Sea Ice : Forum » AGW in general » Consequences » Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1106 on: May 05, 2017, 04:22:54 PM »
Just to clarify the dynamics of esas and other shelf methane releases in the arctic while we are going there. Release to air is maximum in Autumn and winter because oxygen levels in the water become depleted. The prolific Algae blooms produce enough to break a lot of it down late spring and summer before riverine doc influx and die offs of biota combine in Autumn along with the methane to deplete dissolved oxygen again. These fluxes do not have to rise much at all for the whole basin to anoxify within a couple of decades and this to start spreading to nth Atlantic and pacific. The majority of esas release is happening over 1000 km offshore all along the deep end of the slope and is poorly quantified. Shaks could not get either permission or funding to get out there in her earlier studies. So they were mainly on the inshore hotspots eg lena delta where warm river water and extensive submerged thermokarst lake fields have uncorked the beast. Noone should pay attention to fossil funded slowists like Archer. His infinate unperforated slab layercake one dimensional thermal conduction analysis is infamous as an absurdity of unreality and misdirection. That beast is dangerous.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1107 on: May 05, 2017, 05:40:32 PM »
Stunning aprupt upwards movement of the Extent Graph of Bremen...  :o

In this region it looks like the channels in the CAA, and the Fram/Atlantic, as well as the Nares Straight have more extent than 2016 for example. I wonder if that adds to it? Fram could be mostly export. Nares and Fram could be Greenland melt, freshwater that cools the surface (floats on salt water, and is cooler, and also freezes more easily). But I think it is mostly export.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2017, 01:30:36 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1108 on: May 05, 2017, 05:58:05 PM »
Here I took out everything about 1.75 meters thick and compared it to 2016.
Looking at just the main area of the Arctic Basin here.
If you think of yellow (3m thick) and yellow-green, as showing robust state of Arctic Basin, then 2016  maybe looks more spread out across the icepack than today (as well as thicker reds (5m) in 2016).
In terms of melting, has a certain thickness in early May been generally observed to survive the summer melt? I'm guessing 1.5 meters is vulnerable (putting aside concentration for a minute here, since a lot of 3m ice is usually pretty concentrated.)
« Last Edit: May 05, 2017, 06:16:21 PM by Thomas Barlow »

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1109 on: May 05, 2017, 07:10:02 PM »
TB, the red patch in the Beafort shown in your 2016 image as ~4m thick, known as Big Block, completely melted at the very end of the melting season. And in general, leftover extent was much smaller than shown in that image. So I would say 2.5m thick ice is also surely vulnerable, depending on latitude and mobility, possibly even thicker than that. If you put the May map side by side with the same map at the Sep min, some more insights might arise.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1110 on: May 05, 2017, 07:14:24 PM »
TB, the red patch in the Beafort shown in your 2016 image as ~4m thick, known as Big Block, completely melted at the very end of the melting season. And in general, leftover extent was much smaller than shown in that image. So I would say 2.5m thick ice is also surely vulnerable, depending on latitude and mobility, possibly even thicker than that. If you put the May map side by side with the same map at the Sep min, some more insights might arise.
What I've been harping on and what is evident in that comparison is the easy access open water will have on the Pacific side to the heart of the Arctic this year. You can see that while thickness was bad along the immediate coast last year, this year, it is a much larger bite out of the pack that extends much further into its heart. Very, very bad.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1111 on: May 05, 2017, 07:44:59 PM »
<snip; Enough too long comments about CH4, Hadley cells and Sahara. Think about the other readers, please, and go to the appropriate threads; N.>
« Last Edit: May 05, 2017, 08:37:04 PM by Neven »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1112 on: May 05, 2017, 11:38:10 PM »
As you mention methane here I would like to ad an observation I made. (although a little OT)....

I'd like to follow this topic more closely.  Which is the best thread for it?
Try:-
Arctic Sea Ice : Forum » AGW in general » Consequences » Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
If you want to follow the topic of methane release in the arctic, there is even a thread just for that
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.250.html

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1113 on: May 06, 2017, 08:04:29 AM »
HYCOM is showing cracks appearing in the 3- 5 m thick section of the last remaining bastion of MYI in the CAA. Then, the whole pack gets rotated clockwise, promoting Fram Export.
Meanwhile, another Cold Blast is expected mid- week into Eurasia.

Buckle up! Nuclear Winter is in the Works.

vigilius

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1114 on: May 06, 2017, 09:04:36 AM »
Leads have been opening in the Beaufort over the past week, once again the open water is starting to refreeze I think- I am struck by the series of almost parallel lines- I gather that each line contains an area of progressively more re-frozen water as it gets closer to the ice which pulled back? Or is this a different effect? (Image from Nasa Worldview, May 5,this is the west shore of Banks Island at the bottom of the image.)

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1115 on: May 06, 2017, 09:23:59 AM »
Leads have been opening in the Beaufort over the past week, once again the open water is starting to refreeze I think- I am struck by the series of almost parallel lines- I gather that each line contains an area of progressively more re-frozen water as it gets closer to the ice which pulled back? Or is this a different effect? (Image from Nasa Worldview, May 5,this is the west shore of Banks Island at the bottom of the image.)
Yes, the darker areas are newly refrozen open water while the lighter areas are where some time has passed allowing the refreezing to thicken. It's like a real-world lab for thermodynamic thickening.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1116 on: May 06, 2017, 11:04:23 AM »
10 days of ice pack rotation/drift with major cracks starting north of CAA - see zoom out at end.

ktonine

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1117 on: May 06, 2017, 11:46:01 AM »
Wayne Davidson has his 2017 Arctic prediction up. Here's the takeaway - though the whole thing is worth reading:

Quote
#1 least volume of sea ice come September, with a bit of a problem with extent predictability,  because sea ice is spread out from continuous daily displacements.  The East Siberian sea  to North Pole "arm" or ice bridge will figure prominent again, but will be eventually wiped out given the Gyre circulation,  made strong last year,  was recently reinforced.  The stable presence of an Anticyclone North of Alaska  is normal when the Canadian Archipelago atmosphere is coldest,  the clouds presence encompassing this anticyclone span is also very normal in spring.  Eventually the temperature dew point spread will widden due to solar warming and the effect of a huge area High over the Arctic Ocean will hit like in 2007.    I would expect record number of melt Ponds -late- from all that thick snow cover.  This will accelerate the melt rapidly,   numerous melt ponds will signal the start of very rapid melting, after seemingly sluggish melt daily rates interspersed with at times great variations caused by the lack of sea ice consolidation.   The North Pole will be partially ice free because pack ice will be moving all over the place.  A good Yacht Captain should be able to make to the Pole though.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1118 on: May 06, 2017, 02:45:20 PM »
Latest GFS is forecasting mild temps over Arctic Ocean around May 10 - May 13. Heat event starts around May 10 (ESS) and extends towards North Pole and Greenland (May 13), some areas over CAB have temps above zero (Climate Reanalyzer). Scandinavia still cold, Alaska and Canada are seeing quite warm temperatures.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1119 on: May 06, 2017, 03:53:45 PM »
So I would say 2.5m thick ice is also surely vulnerable, depending on latitude and mobility, possibly even thicker than that. If you put the May map side by side with the same map at the Sep min, some more insights might arise.
Here is just over 2m thick, and below that, just over 2.5m thick, for May 2.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1120 on: May 06, 2017, 04:05:28 PM »
So I would say 2.5m thick ice is also surely vulnerable, depending on latitude and mobility, possibly even thicker than that. If you put the May map side by side with the same map at the Sep min, some more insights might arise.
Here is just over 2m thick, and below that, just over 2.5m thick, for May 2.

The Beaufort barrier is gone...

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1121 on: May 06, 2017, 04:05:52 PM »
Here is just over 1.5m thick ice for May 2, 2016, alongside Sept. 15th 2016 minimum.
Below that is May 2, 2017, with just over 1.5m thick ice.
The 1.5m+ version does seem closer in area at first glance, since the 2m+ version seems too small an area when comparing the 2016 May and Sept. (area) versions (because of how the area tends to move towards the Atlantic side eventually.)
« Last Edit: May 06, 2017, 04:52:34 PM by Thomas Barlow »

dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1122 on: May 06, 2017, 05:42:23 PM »
Here's a similar thickness comparison using HYCOM.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1123 on: May 06, 2017, 06:18:50 PM »
Looking at these comparisons from DMI and Hycom I'm having some thoughts:
* Obviously thickness in early May is not a very good predictor of location of remaining ice in September. I guess movement during the season is a large part of that.
* Some might be explained by latitude, as ice below 80 deg has a lower chance of surviving for a given thickness, while ice at 85 deg on the Atlantic side may still thicken more during May.
* Some might be explained by model inaccuracies, as DMI is not known for its good volume estimates. Maybe a PIOMAS cutout of current date in 2016 vs. remaining ice at min 2016 could shed some more light or expectation for this year, though it seems there is just not enough information yet.
* The Hycom comparison for the 2.5m ice in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016 is shocking.

Rick Aster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1124 on: May 06, 2017, 07:53:48 PM »
One last look at weather in Nome, Alaska, on the northeast corner of Bering Sea. The weather station is reporting 39°F. The Weather Underground forecast keeps temperatures above freezing for the next 10 days except for 13 hours around midweek.
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:99762.1.99999?MR=1
There isn’t much ice left in Bering Sea and not much time left for the ice that remains. Temperatures like this combined with 17 hours of daylight won’t be consistent with ice retention.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1125 on: May 06, 2017, 09:13:25 PM »
Looking at these comparisons from DMI and Hycom I'm having some thoughts:
* Obviously thickness in early May is not a very good predictor of location of remaining ice in September. I guess movement during the season is a large part of that.
* Some might be explained by latitude, as ice below 80 deg has a lower chance of surviving for a given thickness, while ice at 85 deg on the Atlantic side may still thicken more during May.
Hard to predict, yes. Here is the movement, month to month, for 2016. Always ends up clumping up against CAA and Greenland.
https://media.giphy.com/media/3og0IGrFYUSA6F65dC/giphy.gif
* Some might be explained by model inaccuracies, as DMI is not known for its good volume estimates. Maybe a PIOMAS cutout of current date in 2016 vs. remaining ice at min 2016 could shed some more light or expectation for this year, though it seems there is just not enough information yet.
It would be interesting to put a DMI graph and a HYCOM graph with the 2016 annual curves together on one chart, adjusted for graph scales, and include one or other of their 'margin of error' ranges. I think they would both seem pretty similar compared to the margin of error. I think there are none of them that super-accurate, and I very much doubt the US navy, since they are only concerned with places a ship could get through. I doubt they are too concerned with great accuracy. I take all of the systems as just rough estimates really.
* The Hycom comparison for the 2.5m ice in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016 is shocking.
It is pretty wild looking.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2017, 09:18:34 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1126 on: May 06, 2017, 09:35:56 PM »
Rick, Nome temperatures were as high as 46F today and temperatures at Red Dog Dock north of Kotzebue hit 40F. Red Dog Dock had water temperatures last year but it looks like the water temperatures are missing this year.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=65.011N&lon1=169.454W&uom=E&dist=250

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1127 on: May 06, 2017, 10:11:18 PM »
To complete the discussion on ice expected to survive the summer, here is an animation of PIOMAS from 2016, May 1st to min at Sep 15th based on Wipneus' material. Just eyeballing it seems to show that ice <2m south of 80 deg is expected to disappear, while ice >3m is expected to survive in some form. (Check the thick ice in ESS that eventually turned into the "ESS arm" at min.) Edit: added the current 2017 PIOMAS map.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2017, 10:52:25 PM by oren »

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1128 on: May 07, 2017, 02:28:18 AM »
Here is just over 1.5m thick ice for May 2, 2016, alongside Sept. 15th 2016 minimum.

It seemed to me like 2008 had relatively thin ice in May, and not record setting low volume in September?

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1129 on: May 07, 2017, 03:06:19 AM »
The following is useful for comparison with my previous gif of the Beaufort gyre and sea ice drift north of CAA (which starts at same time - 4/26).  Winds associated with nominal gyre-driving high pressure systems persist into the forecast . Notice in the Amundsen gulf, the high winds that are jettisoning that big block seen moving briskly in previous gif. It'll be interesting how the pack responds over the week.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1130 on: May 07, 2017, 04:11:49 AM »
It seemed to me like 2008 had relatively thin ice in May, and not record setting low volume in September?
Although 2008 had a lot more reds and pinks than current.
Don't know if that made a difference. Seems unlikely, since they are crunched against CAA mostly.
I am not expecting record setting low area in September, based on this, but close.
(I'm using May 2, because DMI seems to be stuck on May 2 right now.)

(ice just above 1.5m thick)
« Last Edit: May 07, 2017, 05:59:50 PM by Thomas Barlow »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1131 on: May 07, 2017, 01:17:13 PM »
The forecast for the first week of the CFS-v2 verified, the second week's remains basically unaltered with high pressure systems over the CAB and Greenland creating the circulation all across the Arctic, from America and from the Pacific side toward the Atlantic. Higher temperatures in Siberian and Alaskan coasts but cold temperatures in the Central Arctic and Barentsz. Expect clockwise sea ice drift with further coastal opening, and significant transport toward Barentsz and the Atlantic ocean.

The third week forecast shows that warming that has been already mentioned around. See that warming of the continents and the pacific half of the Arctic.
The Beaufort high still persists in that forecast.
Interesting to note that the warming predicted for Eastern Siberia and for large parts of Canada imply temperatures above zero day and night for the first time of the year (down to the coast in ESS). Not particularly early, but we should see a substantial drop in snow cover.
From Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1132 on: May 07, 2017, 02:56:14 PM »
According to NSIDC daily values there have been a small uptick in extent during the last two days.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1133 on: May 07, 2017, 03:18:10 PM »
As a reference point for developments on the east siberian coast I look at weather observations from Pevek http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&WMO=25051&ART=MXMN&CONT=asie&R=0&LEVEL=150&REGION=0028&LAND=RF&NOREGION=1&MOD=&TMX=&TMN=&SON=&PRE=&MONAT=&OFFS=&SORT=
temperatures have occasionally been above zero. This has been enough to prevent refreezing of opening sea surface nearby and snow cover on mountain slopes has been going down, reducing albedo of land surface with noticeable effect on surface temperature as seen in band31 images.

My impression from worldview images is that snowcover is a bit less than 2016 which had lowland surfaces snow free around the 20th of May

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1134 on: May 07, 2017, 03:35:57 PM »
The Beaufort barrier is gone

Normally it would be partially replenished in May/June by the Beaufort Gyre, but...

Winds associated with nominal gyre-driving high pressure systems persist into the forecast.   

... the winds don't seem strong or persistent enough to get the gyre back up to normal speed in the next week or longer.  However, the attendant highs look to be strong enough to dispel some cloud cover.  That leaves huge swaths of first-year ice exposed to increased insolation.  Only snow cover stands in the way of an extensive melt-ponding event.

image credits: Climate Reanalyzer, Nico Sun at CryosphereComputing

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1135 on: May 07, 2017, 06:56:03 PM »
Dunno why the Full- Screen Forecast Maps are stuck at 11th March, but this is looking very unusual.
The Icecap is still there but the Jetstream is already totally messed up.
Meridional Flows, especially over Continental US.
Don't expect anything good this Summer.
Especially, with geopolitical preparations for Nuclear Winter.

rboyd

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1136 on: May 07, 2017, 09:29:15 PM »
Zero or above over large area of thin ice, plus lots of sun.


StopTheApocalypse

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1137 on: May 07, 2017, 10:07:42 PM »
Is there a way to track melt pond formation in real time? I've been poking around for products but haven't seen anything, maybe I'm looking in the wrong places.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1138 on: May 07, 2017, 10:51:58 PM »
Is there a way to track melt pond formation in real time? I've been poking around for products but haven't seen anything, maybe I'm looking in the wrong places.

Unfortunately, no. I've been begging for that for ages. I did get monthly melt pond distribution maps (modelled) from David Schroeder from the University of Reading which were central to my melt pond updates on the ASIB.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1139 on: May 07, 2017, 10:59:58 PM »
I think usually the best way is to look for blue in visual images such as worldview, when melt pond fraction is high it shows up quite well.
In addition, there's the Wipneus chart showing melt extent, it's more of a proxy as it shows not just melt ponds but surface water in general, but it's updated daily and is quite useful.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extentA.png
Of course the best anecdotal way is to check the mass balance buoys that are equipped with webcams, but only one such is currently operational.
http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera
« Last Edit: May 07, 2017, 11:06:40 PM by oren »

Coffee Drinker

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1140 on: May 07, 2017, 11:35:51 PM »
Kimmirut now above zero (+0.8C). That's probably it with winter over there. Expected weather is snow turning into light rain and then sunny/partly sunny with temps reaching +5C the coming week.

http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1141 on: May 08, 2017, 07:24:32 AM »
There is something seriously disturbing now appearing on the long-range models. The Canadian/EURO seem to do a better job vs. the GFS, which seems (IMO, and per others here) to reduce snowfall on-ground prematurely.

The models are now showing extremely severe cold anomalies appearing across many mountainous mid-latitude regions -- on the order of 20C below normal. Heavy snowfalls are now being projected D8-10 across much of mountainous Europe and the Rockies, while snows continue into Quebec and the interior Northeast. The Himalayas also remain extraordinarily cold, and in each of these regions I suspect it is primarily due to the lingering ++++volume of snow, which continues to be deposited in very anomalous amounts.

As the sea ice continues to linger/set new record lows in terms of volume, this would seem to be directly correlated to the propagation of polar lows towards the mid-latitudes instead of the Arctic; indeed, mountainous mid-latitude regions may have a better shot at both retaining and generating cold air, as long as they are snow-covered, which depends on high enough atmospheric moisture content.

Hyperion's posts/analysis have been very useful in this regard, as have others, in showing that the warming/increasingly ice-free Arctic is causing massive plumes of moisture, which inevitably intersect with mountaintops that ordinarily are snow-free by this time due to lack of moisture, above other factors. If moisture continues to increase, as seems likely, this seems to present a "looks like a duck, talks like a duck, it's a duck" argument re: causation of abrupt ice ages.











What does this have to do with sea ice? With +++snowfall/cover across the mid-latitudes relative to normal, I anticipate it will favor very low 500mb height anomalies over the affected regions. This should have the effect of encouraging equator->pole heat transport as vast plumes of heat are lofted over the negative height anomalies, directly impacting the Arctic in the process as we are already seeing.

Another key thing to note re: elevation-based snowfall is that leaves the polar-adjacent landmasses much more vulnerable to losing their snowmass, as for the most part they are *not* elevated. The downsloping effect over the northern tier of Alaska, Canada, and Russia will exacerbate the ice loss in peripheral seas adjacent to these regions, as we are already seeing occur, and the outcome come September is likely to be quite bleak IMO.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1142 on: May 08, 2017, 08:02:04 AM »
Quote
Another key thing to note re: elevation-based snowfall is that leaves the polar-adjacent landmasses much more vulnerable to losing their snowmass, as for the most part they are *not* elevated. The downsloping effect over the northern tier of Alaska, Canada, and Russia will exacerbate the ice loss in peripheral seas adjacent to these regions, as we are already seeing occur, and the outcome come September is likely to be quite bleak IMO.

Canada for one is experiencing warmer temps in many areas, leading to floods and mudslides caused by these warmer temps, which melt snow on the ground and increase rainfall. So it may just be this "borrowing" effect that is causing colder temps in these mountainous regions, and yes, I do believe this will affect the sea ice, maybe even sooner than later. We have seen a couple false starts of sorts to the melt season. The ice is poised to go down quickly now, and I think we are about to see the real deal.
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psymmo7

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1143 on: May 08, 2017, 11:09:44 AM »
DMI: mean temperatures N of 80.
I contacted DMI. They informed me that they encountered some problems during routine testing of a power supply and

"Almost all of the problems have been solved by now, and the rest will be fixed shortly".

Let's hope so.

RikW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1144 on: May 08, 2017, 01:31:58 PM »
Semi-nares-strait crosspost.

This is the first freezing and melting season I'm seriously following this forum and the speed with which the beaufort seems to almost crumble near the Canadian archipelago on Worldview is impressive to me. Is is more often like this? The ice pack appeared stable/vast north of queen elizabeth islands and Ellesmere Islands and in just 5 days an, I think, 5 km wide and around 400km long crack formed and appears to expand quickly

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1145 on: May 08, 2017, 02:46:19 PM »
Some serious temperatures next week at Inuvik (near Mackenzie River delta, very close to Beaufort Sea). Source: https://www.yr.no/place/Canada/Northwest_Territories/Inuvik/long.html

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1146 on: May 08, 2017, 02:51:56 PM »
Hyperion's posts/analysis have been very useful in this regard, as have others, in showing that the warming/increasingly ice-free Arctic is causing massive plumes of moisture, which inevitably intersect with mountaintops that ordinarily are snow-free by this time due to lack of moisture, above other factors.

Just a note,

The global Atmospheric Water Vapor maps indicate that the water vapor is coming from the tropics, that atmospheric water vapor has remained elevated since EL Nino and that circulation effects may by impacted by sea ice but, more likely, sea ice is being affected by global atmospheric circulation effects.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1147 on: May 08, 2017, 02:57:38 PM »
Hyperion's posts/analysis have been very useful in this regard, as have others, in showing that the warming/increasingly ice-free Arctic is causing massive plumes of moisture, which inevitably intersect with mountaintops that ordinarily are snow-free by this time due to lack of moisture, above other factors.

Just a note,

The global Atmospheric Water Vapor maps indicate that the water vapor is coming from the tropics, that atmospheric water vapor has remained elevated since EL Nino and that circulation effects may by impacted by sea ice but, more likely, sea ice is being affected by global atmospheric circulation effects.
Perhaps would be better worded to say that degradation of sea ice is allowing massive plumes of moisture to push increasingly poleward, crossing/impacting mid-latitude mountain ranges in the process. As we head towards ice-free, the Arctic Ocean should also begin sustaining/reinforcing these moisture plumes, though that is still a few months out.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1148 on: May 08, 2017, 03:01:32 PM »
Semi-nares-strait crosspost.

This is the first freezing and melting season I'm seriously following this forum and the speed with which the beaufort seems to almost crumble near the Canadian archipelago on Worldview is impressive to me. Is is more often like this? The ice pack appeared stable/vast north of queen elizabeth islands and Ellesmere Islands and in just 5 days an, I think, 5 km wide and around 400km long crack formed and appears to expand quickly
Here is 2016 for comparison. You can go back further on WV if you like.
First is a gif for 4-6 thru 5-6 of 2016 CLICK IMAGE, second image has 5-7-2016 at the top, with 5-7-2017 below
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1149 on: May 08, 2017, 04:06:32 PM »
Well, three days more for that crack and the rest at Beaufort to widen, then some heat.
But yeah, nothing like last year, TT, nicely done animation.