Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2017 melting season  (Read 1061465 times)

Quantum

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 97
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1400 on: May 21, 2017, 11:13:28 PM »
Snowcover is above average in late may (>1SD)


When was the last time that happened? Maybe 2013? I'd expect snowcover anomalies to drop below average over the summer, still this must affect melting momentum I would have thought.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Royalty
  • *****
  • Posts: 6579
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 343
  • Likes Given: 241
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1401 on: May 21, 2017, 11:41:28 PM »
Here's one from 2013-2014:



Also above average, but slightly less so. As far as I can remember, the anomaly has always been positive. During autumn and winter, fine, I understand. But we are now well into spring and the anomaly should be getting smaller. I mean, how can it be so much above average when Rutgers doesn't show such extreme anomalies (see attachment)?

As said before, my guess is it's because of the unrealistic positive snow depth anomaly in South China/Himalayas on this map here:



One day I'm going to ask the people at Environment Canada what the deal is with those purple colours.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

FishOutofWater

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 612
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 178
  • Likes Given: 61
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1402 on: May 22, 2017, 02:51:30 AM »
The Jet stream was intense over the Atlantic & Pacific ocean. Westerlies (zonal winds)  were stronger than normal and tapped into copious amounts of moisture. The whole northern hemisphere had more snow than normal from fall, through winter into late spring. However, the snow is melting faster than normal now so don't expect levels to be above normal through June.

The high albedo will have a cooling effect but there's also an excess of water vapor in the Arctic atmosphere that will have a warming effect.

Notice the flow of tropical moisture from Hawaii that's working its way into the Canadian Arctic. Total precipitable water north of Banks Island is extraordinarily high. This wet atmosphere will trap solar energy in the boundary layer above the ocean and destroy sea ice.

VeliAlbertKallio

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1403 on: May 22, 2017, 03:04:03 AM »
I mentioned these two effects to the UK Parliamentarians when I gave evidence last month at the Environmental Audit Committee among many recent changes in Arctic cryosphere: https://www.academia.edu/33000316/MPs_to_review_UKs_role_in_Arctic_sustainability_-_24th_April_2017.docx

The Jet stream was intense over the Atlantic & Pacific ocean. Westerlies (zonal winds)  were stronger than normal and tapped into copious amounts of moisture. The whole northern hemisphere had more snow than normal from fall, through winter into late spring. However, the snow is melting faster than normal now so don't expect levels to be above normal through June.

The high albedo will have a cooling effect but there's also an excess of water vapor in the Arctic atmosphere that will have a warming effect.

Notice the flow of tropical moisture from Hawaii that's working its way into the Canadian Arctic. Total precipitable water north of Banks Island is extraordinarily high. This wet atmosphere will trap solar energy in the boundary layer above the ocean and destroy sea ice.

jdallen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2839
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 90
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1404 on: May 22, 2017, 07:12:24 AM »
All the ice between the Beaufort and Chukchi is starting to break up.
A close up look.


Doesn't ice generally start fracturing extensively at this time in the Beaufort and Chukchi? I am more interested in how it breaks up which reveals the overall strength (thickness, temperature etc.) of the ice. Does it quickly turn into a melange or rubble, very small floes, or do we see it fracturing in large rafts, rhomboids and such? From that image, it looks like a mix (perhaps a little heavy on rubble) but I do not know the scale of the image. How large are the largest floes?
Not this early. Not this extensively.
This space for Rent.

Andreas T

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1124
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1405 on: May 22, 2017, 08:45:43 AM »
.......

The high albedo will have a cooling effect but there's also an excess of water vapor in the Arctic atmosphere that will have a warming effect.

Notice the flow of tropical moisture from Hawaii that's working its way into the Canadian Arctic. Total precipitable water north of Banks Island is extraordinarily high. This wet atmosphere will trap solar energy in the boundary layer above the ocean and destroy sea ice.

Obuoy14 in the CAA confirms this: the last few days it has shown relatively high temperatures, above -2C today, under overcast sky. This seems to be low cloud, the horizon is visible (more or less) it seems but contrast between sky and snow is almost nonexistent

Thawing Thunder

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 207
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1406 on: May 22, 2017, 10:44:32 AM »
This seems to be low cloud, the horizon is visible (more or less) it seems but contrast between sky and snow is almost nonexistent
Some enhancement helps:
« Last Edit: May 23, 2017, 12:10:27 AM by Thawing Thunder »
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2189
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1407 on: May 22, 2017, 11:47:14 AM »
Also above average, but slightly less so. As far as I can remember, the anomaly has always been positive. During autumn and winter, fine, I understand. But we are now well into spring and the anomaly should be getting smaller. I mean, how can it be so much above average when Rutgers doesn't show such extreme anomalies (see attachment)?

Rutgers looks pretty positive to me. Flicking back through day 141 on Rutgers, I found I had to go back to 2004 to find more positive areas somewhat near Arctic (perhaps 2009 is also positive but not quite as much as 2017 or 2004). So I don't understand, to me the different sources are consistent and 2017 is unusually positive for snow cover.

That isn't the trend I expect for this late in spring, but one year does not make a trend. Last 12 years are below average for May, so one unusual year does not reverse the trend.


Edit: If what you were saying was just about purple Y shape, yes I agree that is weird. but I don't think there is reason to query 2017 being unusually high for snow cover.

April wasn't as positive as 2013, but 2013 was negative by May per Rutgers.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 11:55:47 AM by crandles »

JayW

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 386
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1408 on: May 22, 2017, 01:44:16 PM »
NWS Anchorage, Alaska 3 month sea ice outlook released yesterday.  I'll only post the overview to save space.

Quote

SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1147 AM AKDT SUNDAY 21 MAY 2017

...MAY 2017 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE SEA ICE BREAK UP SEASON IS WELL
UNDERWAY IN THE BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA. THERE IS A BAND OF SEA
ICE REMAINING BETWEEN SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
IN THE BERING SEA...AS WELL AS SOME ICE REMAINING IN AND NEAR NORTON
SOUND.

THE CHUKCHI SEA HAS ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT MELTING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA BEYOND THE SHOREFAST ICE FROM
KIVALINA UP TO BARROW. THIS MELTING IS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN USUAL
AT THIS POINT IN THE BREAK UP SEASON AND WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
BREAKUP IN THE CHUKCHI SEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS.

AS WE LOOK FURTHER INTO BREAKUP SEASON...WITH BREAKUP ALREADY SO FAR
ALONG IN THE CHUKCHI SEA AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MULTI-YEAR ICE IN
THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA AND NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...BREAK UP IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE EARLIER THAN RECENT YEARS IN THE CHUKCHI
AND BEAUFORT SEAS.

DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN EACH PERTINENT SECTION BELOW.
 
http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fz/fzak30.pafc.ico.afc.txt
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

S.Pansa

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1409 on: May 22, 2017, 02:39:14 PM »
Here's one from 2013-2014:


As said before, my guess is it's because of the unrealistic positive snow depth anomaly in South China/Himalayas on this map here:


They must have installed quite a few mighty snow guns up there to keep the anomaly so steady. It didn't change a Yota in the last month. The data from Global Snow should be more reliable

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2189
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1410 on: May 22, 2017, 02:44:29 PM »
and one from 2014


so there for over 2.5 years.

S.Pansa

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1411 on: May 22, 2017, 02:49:31 PM »
While Ice Extent is lazing about right now, preconditioning seems to go strong - at least in the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS Laptev, according to DMI ice temperature. Forecast for the next 3 days. The ice temps in the Amundsen Gulf and the Smith Sound should be taken with a grain of salt I guess though. Not much ice left there.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1412 on: May 22, 2017, 02:58:18 PM »
While Ice Extent is lazing about right now, preconditioning seems to go strong - at least in the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS Laptev, according to DMI ice temperature. Forecast for the next 3 days. The ice temps in the Amundsen Gulf and the Smith Sound should be taken with a grain of salt I guess though. Not much ice left there.
I would add ESS too, no hesitation. It is not having a cold start at all. Actually Laptev sea seems quite cooler but that can change in a blink it seems

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1413 on: May 22, 2017, 05:10:35 PM »
Barrow web cam is showing sea ice melt the last couple of days. Puddles in town and melt on the lake right side of picture frame.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1414 on: May 22, 2017, 05:38:25 PM »
The CFS-v2 weekly forecasts tend to exhibit the same sort of "hot" bias that was identified for the GFS, in their forecasts 7-14 days in advance. I compare the forecasts for this week, which was done one week ago, against same forecast done this morning.


Random_Weather

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 68
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1415 on: May 22, 2017, 06:02:38 PM »
seaicesailor,

Yes, the best webpage to compare this is here: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

Since end of April, GFS has a increasing Warm-Bias on NH

for arctic only you can look here:
http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_arctic/verification/ANOM2m_bias_past07_arctic.html

Its not so new, saw this also years before, its likly an issue with snow cover, because GFS tend to a far to strong melt in spring-time

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1416 on: May 22, 2017, 06:11:26 PM »
To EVERYONE here: Right now the GFS skill score is just complete GARBAGE!

THIS says more than words! Courtesy: Ryan Maue from Twitter.

« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 06:29:12 PM by Lord M Vader »

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 92
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1417 on: May 22, 2017, 06:16:40 PM »
Barrow web cam is showing sea ice melt the last couple of days. Puddles in town and melt on the lake right side of picture frame.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

considering the soot that has been visible for at last 2-3 weeks this had to be expected and is a very good first hand example as to what dark ice/snow surfaces will do, even though i've not seen any temps above 0C in barrow over the last two weeks and i check on that one daily. well worth a mention, thanks because i think albedo reduction due to soot on surfaces will play an increasing role. for every layer of snow/ice that will melt, the "built-in" dirt will accumulate and make for an ever increasing darkening. another positive feedback so to say, negative in relation to keeping ice intact of course LOL

this can be observed on glaciers for long but i think now it will increasing impact sea ice, expecially where it was older ice which in barrow of course is not the case.
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

FishOutofWater

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 612
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 178
  • Likes Given: 61
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1418 on: May 22, 2017, 06:17:31 PM »
The deep snow is holding out in northern Siberia, keeping that area of land cold, but it is also maintaining a strong jet stream which is advecting even more warm air than forecast 7 days ago into the Canadian Arctic. North south transport is amplified.

The deep snow in the Siberian Arctic started last September and it has impacted the NH weather for over 6 months.

Note that the ECMWF also has warm high pressure over the Beaufort sea for the next 10 days. The weather has been and will continue to be warmer than normal across the Arctic but the "Urals trough" will continue to be stronger than normal keeping it cold over Scandinavia and north western Europe.
 

woodstea

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 87
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1419 on: May 22, 2017, 06:24:40 PM »
To EVERYONE here: Right now the GFS skill score is just complete GARBAGE!

THIS says more than words!


I agree that GFS isn't doing too well lately, but I'm not crazy about seeing Ryan Maue used as a source on this forum.

Edited: ...which I know is off-topic. I'd be interested in others' viewpoints on Ryan Maue and WeatherBELL. Perhaps someone can suggest the right forum for that?
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 06:36:38 PM by woodstea »

dnem

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 191
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1420 on: May 22, 2017, 06:39:11 PM »
I had to Google Maue, but yeah, I see what you mean!

Also, the posted correlation between predicted and realized temp anomalies is for 20 - 80 deg N.

Quantum

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 97
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1421 on: May 22, 2017, 06:43:28 PM »
To EVERYONE here: Right now the GFS skill score is just complete GARBAGE!

THIS says more than words!


I agree that GFS isn't doing too well lately, but I'm not crazy about seeing Ryan Maue used as a source on this forum.

Edited: ...which I know is off-topic. I'd be interested in others' viewpoints on Ryan Maue and WeatherBELL. Perhaps someone can suggest the right forum for that?

Ryan Maue is fantastic at what he does, I always find his visualizations fascinating. He has also been gracious enough to help me (by all accounts a random nobody) with data processing.

Whether or not he hangs out in climate 'skeptic' circles, to me, is only relevant if we are talking about AGW. With regards to anomaly correlations of models, I'm inclined to take what he says at face value. In any case we all know the ECMWF is vastly superior to the GFS anyway.

FishOutofWater

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 612
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 178
  • Likes Given: 61
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1422 on: May 22, 2017, 07:16:05 PM »
The politics of the southern U.S. has affected Maue's opinions on climate. There's an "other, politics" forum here where that is discussed. Maue's work on accumulated hurricane energy is good. Obviously, trends in hurricane energy are affected by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the frequency of El Niños.

The factor that is going to affect this year's melt season is the strong northwards transport of heat in both the ocean and the atmosphere caused by strong blocking highs in the north Atlantic, frequently centered over Greenland. Maue has neglected the effect of aerosols from Europe on the heat content of the north Atlantic which has affected both Atlantic hurricane intensity, and sea ice extent in the Barents and Kara seas.

High sulfate emissions from dirty industrial activities in post war Europe may have cooled the north Atlantic in the 60's and 70's reducing hurricane activity and protecting sea ice. Maue has incorrectly attributed the sulfate induced cooling of the north Atlantic in his analyses. He attributes the anthropogenic sulfate caused cooling to natural cycles.

This year the flow of cold fresh water out of the Arctic and warm salty water into the Arctic has spun up in response to weather patterns related to the PDO shift. More warm water is entering the Atlantic basin now and more warm water is being transported into the Arctic.




Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1644
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1423 on: May 22, 2017, 07:42:21 PM »
There is plenty of warm water to go around, and early in the year , at that.
It's expected to increase in the coming days. Hint: Look at Okhotz, Bering Sea, Labrador, Barents.
First image is today.
Second image is nine days out.
Edit: CLICK IMAGE 3 for gif comparison of now to May 31st
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 07:51:21 PM by Tigertown »

FishOutofWater

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 612
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 178
  • Likes Given: 61
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1424 on: May 22, 2017, 08:28:50 PM »
Here's a 500mb reanalysis anomaly map for the past 30 days that shows the Greenland blocking high that has intensified north-south heat transport in both the ocean and atmosphere.

Dispersion has led to the slow drop in IJIS extent. Everything appears to be setting up for a huge extent drop in June. We'll see. The CFS has failed before so maybe this ice will do better than it looks today.

Ice Shieldz

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 210
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1425 on: May 22, 2017, 09:26:59 PM »
Thick ice continues to export out the Nares over the last 7 days. The Lincoln Sea itself is transitioning into a corridor for thick ice from other areas of the CAB.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 09:38:24 PM by Ice Shieldz »

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1644
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1426 on: May 22, 2017, 09:29:27 PM »
Where did it go?
Charts show this ice that's now  entering Nares to be old thick ice, but the way it crumbles makes for doubt. 5-21 vs. 5-22
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 09:55:11 PM by Tigertown »

romett1

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 220
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1427 on: May 22, 2017, 09:47:50 PM »
Where did it go?
Charts show this that's now ice entering Nares to be old thick ice, but the way it crumbles makes for doubt. 5-21 vs. 5-22


I had some respect for this piece before cracking. By the way, I see you have posted 1,234 posts. Thanks for great contribution.

Ice Shieldz

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 210
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1428 on: May 22, 2017, 09:52:46 PM »
Well TT you've got more experience than i around how the Arctic plays rock, paper, scissors with thick ice. But it seems plausible that this is thick ice, since ice of course will lose to rock, especially with the relative velocity that it's traveling and any torque associated with water currents under the surface of the entire floe.

Thomas Barlow

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1429 on: May 22, 2017, 10:01:30 PM »
Where did it go?
Charts show this ice that's now  entering Nares to be old thick ice, but the way it crumbles makes for doubt. 5-21 vs. 5-22
i was just looking at that.
The ice is being reported as 4-5 m thick ice, but is being pulverized as it enters the Nares. Seems surprising. 

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1644
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1430 on: May 22, 2017, 10:01:40 PM »
Yes, it could be that particular piece hit the rock at just the right speed and angle to break up. However, there seems to be no other that is holding together out of all the ice breaking up in the area. Of course, a clog would make things boring, but a boring Arctic is a healthier Arctic. I don't expect much boredom on the forum here this summer.

Thomas; Thick maybe, but apparently not solid. Someone mentioned honeycombed ice recently. Or maybe from the start these are comprised of smaller floes that had froze together. Maybe not the strongest bonds? I think overall, it is due to the lack of FDD's over the last freezing season.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 10:11:10 PM by Tigertown »

Ice Shieldz

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 210
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1431 on: May 22, 2017, 10:16:49 PM »
Thomas, FYI this from forum member Andreas T
 . . .measurements taken by scientists on the ice in that area show a mean thickness of 3m
http://blogs.esa.int/campaignearth/2017/05/01/cryovex-first-results-show-sea-ice-continues-to-thin/

I think Tigertown may be on to something with honeycombing, refreezing and FDDs. Also perhaps with all the storms and sloshing around over the last many months the ice could have more stress fractures and thereby more prone to break up?

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1644
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1432 on: May 22, 2017, 10:27:58 PM »
@ Ice Shieldz
Your gif in #1425 really shows the big picture. The ice is going straight from being part of a pack to smaller floes without any intermittent phase or a very brief one at the least. I would not be surprised to see past export numbers blown away due to this pattern.

Ice Shieldz

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 210
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1433 on: May 22, 2017, 10:29:51 PM »
I would not be surprised to see past export numbers blown away due to this pattern.
Solely because smaller pieces will not clog the Nares pipe?

Edit: Hmm upon looking at it, it seems that export could increase for other areas such as the fram as small floes will readily slough off a traditionally more solid and stationary pack.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 10:39:09 PM by Ice Shieldz »

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1644
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1434 on: May 22, 2017, 10:40:49 PM »
That, and if and when the CAA opens up. There looks to be momentum building at the mouth of Nares. I think that ,in regard to the Lincoln Sea, a little more open water and any added heat from insolation or otherwise will only spur things on. Maybe the "garlic press" at the end of the last melt season was only a small foregleam of what will happen soon.

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1644
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1435 on: May 23, 2017, 01:03:32 AM »
Borrowed from the Nares Strait thread. Applies to the current conversation here.
Apocalypse4Real,
Quote
NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve continued her Arctic field work into early April, moving from Cambridge Bay, Canada to Alert in Ellesmere Island. In Alert, Stroeve focused on sampling ice thickness and snow pack characteristics along a CryoSat-2 flight track within the Lincoln Sea. This is an area between northernmost Greenland and Ellesmere Island where thick, old ice remains. The scientists flew by Twin Otter each day, out onto the sea ice between latitudes 83°N and 87.1°N. The field campaign was also supported by an aircraft from the British Antarctic Survey carrying a Ka band radar, LiDAR, and a broadband radiometer. A NASA Operation IceBridge flight also flew over the same track.

The group noted that the ice was unusually broken up and reduced to rubble, with few large multi-year floes, forcing the pilots to land on refrozen leads that at times were only 70 centimeters (28 inches) thick. Pilots remarked that they had never seen the ice look like this.

Preliminary estimates suggest mean thicknesses ranging from 2 to 3.4 meters (6.6 to 11 feet), with the thickest ice found between an ice bridge in the Lincoln Sea and mobile pack ice to the north.

Modal thickness, a representation of thermodynamically-grown level ice, ranged between 1.8 and 2.9 meters (6 and 10 feet), including 0.25 to 0.4 meters (10 to 16 inches) of snow. Second- and first-year modal ice thicknesses ranged between 1.8 and 1.9 meters (6 and 6.2 feet), about 0.2 meters (8 inches) thinner than previous airborne measurements indicated.

For details see
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg114458.html#msg114458

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3875
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1436 on: May 23, 2017, 01:36:18 AM »
Borrowed from the "Buoys" thread, the heart of the Northwest Passage is now above freezing:



Meanwhile north of Utqiaġvik (AKA Barrow) the ice is gradually warming up:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A-Temp

Current Buoy Data (05/22/2017):
Pos: 74.27N, 157.77W
Air Temp: -7.8 C
Air Pres: 1010.8 mb
Snow depth : 12 cm
Ice thickness : 119 cm
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

VeliAlbertKallio

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1437 on: May 23, 2017, 02:22:51 AM »
[term: pulverizing]

Over a decade ago 2005-2010 I raised the idea that vertical mixing of the increasingly open ocean and the wave actions due to the growing winds and temperature gradients between open and ice covered parts of the ocean breaking and pulverizing sea ice, I had to explain a few times  exactly what I meant with these now self-evident processes attacking Arctic sea ice.

(On the land ice, I queried early 2000's temperature measurements from inside Greenland ice sheet and the answer I was given was that we do not need to measure more than one meter from the surface as ice is insular. Completely failing to understand the transport of heat through moulins and crevasses that drain water and heat in it to beneath ice sheet.)

Years pass and things come to pass. Overall, I am very much delighted to see infinitely better and aware discussion than at the turn of the millennium. And ASIF forum is a superb venue to come together to see the rapid change and try to foresee what will be the next big thing.

In Ilulissat people used to drive cars on winter road to Disko Island, then ice weakened and it was not possible in late 1970s but still possible with motor sleds, since then the winter sleds also has gone away and at last many dogs have been put down in Ilulissat. Local people has known for long that this was coming but the professionals were slow to note this and speak openly about it. In September 2007 I took a copy of The Times citing about "the ice age" after fears of Golf Stream weakening reported at the time, and we had a good laugh with people of Thule attending the RSE VII conference about the crazy British (as they were just 900 miles from the North Pole and seas were opening even there was heat and melting).

Today we are at least in a right spot to discuss these things which are parallel to local knowledge. That was not always the case not so long ago.

Where did it go?
Charts show this ice that's now entering Nares to be old thick ice, but the way it crumbles makes for doubt. 5-21 vs. 5-22
i was just looking at that.
The ice is being reported as 4-5 m thick ice, but is being pulverized as it enters the Nares. Seems surprising.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3513
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 426
  • Likes Given: 926
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1438 on: May 23, 2017, 07:21:34 AM »
A very strange year in terms of extent. One might expect lower extent at this time, considering the poor winter and the huge lead in PIOMAS numbers, but instead we are 7th on the IJIS rankings. On the other hand, digging into the numbers shows a huge positive anomaly in the Barents sea, and much higher than normal extent in the Greenland sea and Baffin bay. Altogether the Atlantic side explains the whole anomaly. As the Atlantic is export-based, this will all go to hell at some point, but I'm sure current numbers have caused some raised eyebrows.

epiphyte

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1439 on: May 23, 2017, 08:31:59 AM »
A very strange year in terms of extent. One might expect lower extent at this time, considering the poor winter and the huge lead in PIOMAS numbers, but instead we are 7th on the IJIS rankings. On the other hand, digging into the numbers shows a huge positive anomaly in the Barents sea, and much higher than normal extent in the Greenland sea and Baffin bay. Altogether the Atlantic side explains the whole anomaly. As the Atlantic is export-based, this will all go to hell at some point, but I'm sure current numbers have caused some raised eyebrows.

For my money in the post-2000 regime, when it's mostly fragmented and fluid FYI, the only thing that extent tells us at this time of year is the size of the pool of blood on the floor.

pauldry600

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 174
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1440 on: May 23, 2017, 11:27:16 AM »
As im predicting a 3.7m IJIS finish I am going to update from time to time the daily extent avergage loss required for that eventuality by September 15th (rather niavely)

As of today we need 68,376 loss of IJIS a day

A tall order but lets see...

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 92
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1441 on: May 23, 2017, 03:12:22 PM »
A very strange year in terms of extent. One might expect lower extent at this time, considering the poor winter and the huge lead in PIOMAS numbers, but instead we are 7th on the IJIS rankings. On the other hand, digging into the numbers shows a huge positive anomaly in the Barents sea, and much higher than normal extent in the Greenland sea and Baffin bay. Altogether the Atlantic side explains the whole anomaly. As the Atlantic is export-based, this will all go to hell at some point, but I'm sure current numbers have caused some raised eyebrows.

true but it has all been explained various times by myself and others. in nevens blog there is another nice excerpt about how tho see this. has a lot to do with fragmentation, mobility and as the only previously unknown the current weather/temps. as i stated earlier we're definitely in for a sudden drop of some kind, there will be a rude awakening for those with the risen eyebrows, at least if i understood correctly and you refer to doubters :-)
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1442 on: May 23, 2017, 03:46:38 PM »
Seems like we are on the verge to see some decent action in work soon.

Yes, the Atlantic side is to blame for why we are lagging in extent numbers. Despite fairly cool weather conditions in Kara Sea, the ice there will start to see some major damage soon. The same should be true for the ice between Franz Josefs land and Svalbard but especially in the Labrador Sea.

At least 1-2, maybe even 3, Century breaks should not be of bound for the next 7 days as the Arctic continues to heat up.

Thomas Barlow

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1443 on: May 23, 2017, 03:52:50 PM »
The people saying that the ice is breaking up in smaller blocks appear to be right.
Was the winter freeze, with all its anomalously warmer temps., only enough to cement small, broken-up blocks together, rather than create any significant new thickness or extent, creating an illusion of relative stability in area?
"""Polar bear scientists see unusual sea ice breakup""
http://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Polar-bear-scientists-see-unusual-sea-ice-break-up-423713633.html
« Last Edit: May 23, 2017, 09:26:59 PM by Thomas Barlow »

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 92
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1444 on: May 23, 2017, 05:05:43 PM »
Seems like we are on the verge to see some decent action in work soon.

Yes, the Atlantic side is to blame for why we are lagging in extent numbers. Despite fairly cool weather conditions in Kara Sea, the ice there will start to see some major damage soon. The same should be true for the ice between Franz Josefs land and Svalbard but especially in the Labrador Sea.

At least 1-2, maybe even 3, Century breaks should not be of bound for the next 7 days as the Arctic continues to heat up.

exactly what i think and i forgot to mention before that not only did the very mobile ice drift in large quantities to the atlantic side, compared to other years big parts of that ice is very thick MYI, felt almost half of the remaining MYI is now in in that part of the arctic, including the relative thick ice that drifted almost the entire winter towards fram and probably takes a bit longer to melt out than the thinner ice of previous years. that's just a rudimentary assessment of the situation, a precise analyzes would shed more light, only that i lack the skills to do that myself :-)
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

jdallen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2839
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 90
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1445 on: May 23, 2017, 06:49:26 PM »
Seems like we are on the verge to see some decent action in work soon.

Yes, the Atlantic side is to blame for why we are lagging in extent numbers. Despite fairly cool weather conditions in Kara Sea, the ice there will start to see some major damage soon. The same should be true for the ice between Franz Josefs land and Svalbard but especially in the Labrador Sea.

At least 1-2, maybe even 3, Century breaks should not be of bound for the next 7 days as the Arctic continues to heat up.
Looking at the Barentsz, Kara, Labraffor and Greenland seas, I fully anticipate major flash melting in June that will have multiple centuries, possibly multiple double centuries of melt as the thin broad extent gets heated, and ice less than 1.5 meters their virtually evaporates.
This space for Rent.

marcel_g

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1446 on: May 23, 2017, 08:47:02 PM »
The people saying that the ice is breaking up in smaller blocks appear to be right.
Was the winter freeze, with all its anomalously warm temps., only enough to cement small, broken-up blocks together, rather than create any significant new thickness or extent, creating an illusion of relative stability in area?
"""Polar bear scientists see unusual sea ice breakup""
http://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Polar-bear-scientists-see-unusual-sea-ice-break-up-423713633.html

That would be my vote. Someone mentioned on this forum a while back that ice temperature affects its mechanical strength, so that -20C ice is 5x stronger than -10C ice. (Hopefully I'm not misremembering that.) Assuming that the FDD anomaly affects not only ice thickness but ice temperature as well.

Quantum

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 97
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1447 on: May 23, 2017, 09:06:29 PM »
I had a go at comparing the MODIS satellite images from this year to last year and highlighting the regions of melt (anywhere that has a distinctly blue tinge). Obviously this is completely subjective and shouldn't be taken too seriously but it does, I think, highlight some of the general regions of melting.


Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1644
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1448 on: May 23, 2017, 09:13:19 PM »
I was just considering the temperature anomalies for today over the Beaufort and the CAA.

sondreb

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 5
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1449 on: May 23, 2017, 09:19:28 PM »
Lincoln Sea May 23th 2016 vs 21/21/23 2017. I made a stitch of the 3 days, to make the image as clear as possible with least clouds.