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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1550 on: May 28, 2017, 01:32:24 AM »
@bairgon
Here's another little area that's opening up. These will soon add up.
First image is for point of reference.

Coffee Drinker

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1551 on: May 28, 2017, 03:04:58 AM »
Melt in full swing at Kimmirut. Look at the meltponds. Max today was 8C and full sun.
http://www.kimmirutweather.com/


subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1552 on: May 28, 2017, 03:08:00 AM »
Above the CAA clockwise rotation of the pack teases open the cracks and opens more big leads at the margin of the fast ice. This view shows the north west of Ellesmere Island (at bottom right) and the Islands to its west

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1553 on: May 28, 2017, 04:11:15 AM »
Above the CAA clockwise rotation of the pack teases open the cracks and opens more big leads at the margin of the fast ice. This view shows the north west of Ellesmere Island (at bottom right) and the Islands to its west
If HYCOM is to be believed, those widening cracks are going to turn into gaping fissures over the next few days, and will possibly extend all the way through to the Atlantic, as the ice being drawn into Nares separates from the main CAB.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1554 on: May 28, 2017, 04:41:21 AM »
Just to put things in perspective, here is July 8-15 of 2016
CLICK IMAGE

georged

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1555 on: May 28, 2017, 06:07:12 AM »
@bairgon
Here's another little area that's opening up. These will soon add up.
First image is for point of reference.


That's a particularly shallow part of the archipelago. Wekerle et al is a good read on saltwater transport through the channel:
http://sci-hub.cc/10.1002/jgrc.20330

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1556 on: May 28, 2017, 08:18:05 AM »
First attachment is Uni Bremen sea ice concentration.   I wonder if it rained on the Beaufort Sea.
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/regional/

Second attachment is the 72 hour ECMWF forecast for Alaska.  Looks like strong easterly winds over the southern Beaufort. Warm too.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2017052800&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1557 on: May 28, 2017, 09:33:17 AM »
First attachment is Uni Bremen sea ice concentration.   I wonder if it rained on the Beaufort Sea.
EOSDIS worldview visual for 5/27 suggests significant melt pond formation has already taken place across much of the Beaufort and western ACA. That may be what Bremen is showing.

Best part of a quarter million KM2 of ice looks like it is rapidly turning to slush as we watch.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1558 on: May 28, 2017, 09:50:39 AM »
DMIs model shows temps above freezing point over a large part of Beaufort Sea as well as partly over the CAB.


jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1559 on: May 28, 2017, 10:09:26 AM »
DMIs model shows temps above freezing point over a large part of Beaufort Sea as well as partly over the CAB.
The Hudson and Foxe BASIN ad well. Wall-to-wall meltponds visible in Hudson's Bay.
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bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1560 on: May 28, 2017, 10:11:26 AM »
@bairgon
Here's another little area that's opening up. These will soon add up.
First image is for point of reference.


What has struck me about that image is that the top of Baffin Bay is clear. Big chunk collapsed, and the export from the Lincoln Sea has reached that area, but there is little sign of the ice filling up the top of Baffin Bay. It's all melting. The ice that is in Baffin Bay is now making its way south, and will melt out, but nothing is replacing it.

Animation below shows this.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1561 on: May 28, 2017, 10:42:52 AM »
Thanks Jdallen! I think I discounted Hudson and Foxe as they tend to melt to melt out anyway every season. Beaufort and the CAB OTOH is a completely different history if we are going to see an early melting momentum there which might be disastrous later in the season given the thin ice there.

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1562 on: May 28, 2017, 10:43:39 AM »
First attachment is Uni Bremen sea ice concentration.   I wonder if it rained on the Beaufort Sea.
EOSDIS worldview visual for 5/27 suggests significant melt pond formation has already taken place across much of the Beaufort and western ACA. That may be what Bremen is showing.

Best part of a quarter million KM2 of ice looks like it is rapidly turning to slush as we watch.

First attachment is an animation of May 25-28.  We can see a cyclone moving from Utqiagvik to a position north of Wrangel island, putting the Beaufort Sea squarely in the warm sector.  And despite 850 temperatures being cold enough to support snow.  There is a warm later beneath it. 
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu

Second attachment is the 28.0z skew-t plot for (Barrow) Utqiagvik, Alaska clearly showing above freezing temperatures between 925mb and 1000mb, with a surface inversion.  This screams rain, perhaps freezing rain where the warm layer is thinner, and the surface cold enough.  But I do believe rain fell over a large portion of the Beaufort.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/upper/skew-t
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1563 on: May 28, 2017, 10:45:06 AM »
Wipneus posted a nice animation today in his Home Brew AMSR2 thread, showing the torching in Beaufort:

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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1564 on: May 28, 2017, 10:47:08 AM »
Wipneus posted a nice animation today in his Home Brew AMSR2 thread, showing the torching in Beaufort:


The dark greys seem to directly correspond to where the ice was left extremely unusually thin, wonder if it melts out in a matter of weeks instead of months -- could turn very bad into extraordinarily bad.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1565 on: May 28, 2017, 10:59:02 AM »
Wipneus animation seems to correspond quite well with DMIs temp picture, and yes, it might be really bad later in the season. Especially if ll that thin ice will melt out early and allow for some decent sunshine to penetrate down into the sea and raise the SSTs before the sun gets too weak to have a serious impact.


Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1566 on: May 28, 2017, 11:16:16 AM »
Looking at Wipneus' animation.

OUCH....

The next week it may not matter a lot. But a month from now?

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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1567 on: May 28, 2017, 11:42:30 AM »
Wipneus posted a nice animation today in his Home Brew AMSR2 thread, showing the torching in Beaufort:


The dark greys seem to directly correspond to where the ice was left extremely unusually thin, wonder if it melts out in a matter of weeks instead of months -- could turn very bad into extraordinarily bad.

not only that, if one has a look at barrows webcam it's obvious that the ice ice almost dark brown which i mentioned earlier and i'm still convinced that such large areas of dirty ice will have a huge impact on meltpond building and ultimately on melting seasons development. i observed meltpond building in barrows despite freezing temps and with relatively poor insoltation 2 weeks ago and those meltponds are  now deep holes already.

it could be assumed that this is not limited to the coastal area because as far as i know all that soot is not entirely (or not at all ) locally produced. perhaps someone knows more about eventual sources  for pollution in or near barrows that would render my assumption wrong, but i did not find any other explanation than that this is a general thing this year, dirty air must habe been imported from farther south.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1568 on: May 28, 2017, 11:57:58 AM »
The surroundings of the small town are still cozily covered by a nice white blanket. The melting we see sometimes in the webcam is anthropogenic but of the local kind.
Image of Barrow from the sat yesterday

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1569 on: May 28, 2017, 12:33:24 PM »
DMIs model shows temps above freezing point over a large part of Beaufort Sea as well as partly over the CAB.
The Hudson and Foxe BASIN ad well. Wall-to-wall meltponds visible in Hudson's Bay.
My untrainded eyes insist that the Beaufort and the CAA have acquired a bluish tinge as well.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1570 on: May 28, 2017, 12:34:04 PM »
Looking at Wipneus' animation.
OUCH....
The next week it may not matter a lot. But a month from now?


I also add thickness chart - May 28 this year vs 2016. Chukchi Sea, ESS and Laptev clearly thinner this year, Bering Sea empty as last year. Parts of Beaufort Sea and part of CAA almost 2 times thinner than last year. Lot of 1-2 m thick ice has moved to Barents Sea and Fram Strait, that is why temporarily overall extent and volume have not dropped dramatically. Have to wait, right now low pressure over Kara Sea and extending to Barents Sea probably killing lot of ice there as well. But yes, Beaufort Sea still most problematic. Images: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 12:41:51 PM by romett1 »

bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1571 on: May 28, 2017, 01:59:51 PM »
Cross post from Nares Strait thread; relevant for overall melting progress.

To get an idea how much ice has left the Lincoln sea into Nares strait, I have tracked some floes back to the 12th when they were at the position they had when the ice arch broke.

At a very rough guesstimate of area, that is a triangle with sides of 140km. That works out to around 8500km^2. The last image in the sequence is 27th May, so that is 15 days of export.

Therefore export rate is around 550 km^2 per day. That matches well with my original estimate of 500km^2:

Looking at the export over the last couple of days at start of the Robeson Channel (see gif) I estimate about 500 km^2 exported per day

FredBear

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1572 on: May 28, 2017, 02:42:53 PM »
Barrow Sea Ice Break Up

Dirty Ice is a known problem (quote):-

We define break-up as the first detected movement of landfast ice shoreward of grounded ridges within the 20 m-isobath off NARL, approximately 5 miles north of Barrow. Typically, movement is parallel to the coast, confined by grounded pressure ridges at the 20 m-isobath. However, we exclude ice affected by dust from town and a coastal road, i.e. the first approx. 100 m off shore. Typically, we detect movement from coastal RADAR and from Satellite imagery. In previous years, webcam images near NARL were available.

It is also interesting that pressure ridges can ground in 20m water depth (most years?), I saw someone was saying that ice off Siberia looked as if it had stopped moving in circa 10m water.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1573 on: May 28, 2017, 05:10:07 PM »
Light and therefore heat will get through the thin ice as soon as melt ponds form. The ice in the Beaufort is so thin that it will be very transmissive to light as soon as the snow on top has melted away. However, the melt pond stage will be brief because it will quickly turn to mush.

Warm humid air is also going to blast the Kara sea over the next few days. Expect that thin ice to be compacted against Nova Zemlya and melted from above by heat and below by waves.

The stage is set for a very rapid decline in ice extent in June. It all depends on the weather and the strong wavy jet stream for this time of year indicates there will be strong heat flow from the warm continents to the Arctic seas. That's not good.

In 2013 the jet stream was very weak and collapsed around the Arctic margins, keeping the Arctic ocean cold and stormy. This jet stream pattern is setting up for high pressure near the pole and storms around the margins of the Arctic ocean. In other words I'm expecting the opposite of the ice preserving conditions of June 2013. Because the jet stream is strong for this time of year I expect the general tendency of high pressure around the pole we see today to continue through June because the ridges produced by warm air advected northwards by the storms circling the Arctic will tend to converge at the pole.

Tetra

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1574 on: May 28, 2017, 05:23:45 PM »
Uh oh. Could we be ice free by july?

Am very depressed over this now.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1575 on: May 28, 2017, 06:16:03 PM »
Jaxa AMSR2 volume down by 3,000 km3 in the last two weeks. That is nearly 15 percent. Many say that the absolute values should  be treated with great caution. But one can have more confidence in changes in volume.
Given continued slow drop in extent this implies signficant drop in average thickness, in turn implying greater potential for significant increased wipeout of ice. One year soon it has to happen.
Roll on PIOMAS update.

But the extent data continues to defy expectations for 2017.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1576 on: May 28, 2017, 07:44:10 PM »
Uh oh. Could we be ice free by july?

Am very depressed over this now.

while your general feeling/concern is well based i strongly believe that "ice-free by july" is vastly exagerated. i don't even believe we shall be ice-free this year but that's at least remotely possible.

should that happen it would have to be in september but as is said, i personally don't think so.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1577 on: May 28, 2017, 08:21:20 PM »
Quote
Uh oh. Could we be ice free by july?

For this to happen, there would have to be a new record in the total volume ice loss between now and July 31.  Just eyeballing comparison to the 2012 melt season it would have to be around 35% greater than that record season.

This estimation also assumes that at 750 km^3 the arctic reaches the 'effective ice-free' state of < 1,000,000 km^2

This would then also lead to a final September sea ice extent value far, far below the 1,000,000 km^2 threshold, say around 450,000 km^2 (or less!).  With the loss of multi-year ice these last years that reality is not too difficult to imagine.

however, shooting from a minimum sea ice volume of 3.35 thousand km^3 to less than 750 km^3 by July 31 is a pretty tall order and would have to be the result of some kind of tipping point climate impact.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 08:32:47 PM by jai mitchell »
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1578 on: May 28, 2017, 08:30:10 PM »
The current state of high pressure in the CAB has not led to significant surface melt, as would have otherwise been expected.  This appears to be due to high levels of cloud cover.  The cloudcover appears to be a function of water vapor intrusion from the North American side in a classic 'negative PNA index' push at the 850 mb altitude.  This was the dominant system that operated on the arctic 2013/2014 melt seasons.  The PNA index has been negative but is projected to shift sharply to a strong positive in the forecast models.  This will combine with the forecast models of stronger high pressure in the CAB to greatly accelerate melt pond formation and precondition of ice loss through the rest of the melt season.

PNA Index forecast  (note the jump to strong positive in the next week)



850 mb water vapor intrusion from the canadian and alaskan side.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/05/27/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-136.54,65.90,816

I have not seen anyone else discuss this dynamic, anywhere, what are your thoughts o venerable forum of ice?

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Tetra

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1579 on: May 28, 2017, 08:41:26 PM »
Quote
Uh oh. Could we be ice free by july?

For this to happen, there would have to be a new record in the total volume ice loss between now and July 31.  Just eyeballing comparison to the 2012 melt season it would have to be around 35% greater than that record season.

This estimation also assumes that at 750 km^3 the arctic reaches the 'effective ice-free' state of < 1,000,000 km^2

This would then also lead to a final September sea ice extent value far, far below the 1,000,000 km^2 threshold, say around 450,000 km^2 (or less!).  With the loss of multi-year ice these last years that reality is not too difficult to imagine.

however, shooting from a minimum sea ice volume of 3.35 thousand km^3 to less than 750 km^3 by July 31 is a pretty tall order and would have to be the result of some kind of tipping point climate impact.

Isn't the record thin ice a sign of a tipping point? And do you think we could barely avoid a blue ocean event in august or July with enough cloud cover?

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1580 on: May 28, 2017, 08:44:24 PM »
@jai
I think that is showing the winds at 850 mb, but the TPW which is for the whole  m2 column. At least numberwise, not sure about colorwise. Not the expert here, but usually when you check the TPW going into the Arctic it is like 1.68 kg/m2  or some number of that sort, not between 8 and 12 some odd kg/m2. This is a huge change, but seems to happen this time of year lately.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 08:53:27 PM by Tigertown »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1581 on: May 28, 2017, 09:26:40 PM »
Isn't the record thin ice a sign of a tipping point? And do you think we could barely avoid a blue ocean event in august or July with enough cloud cover?

You're asking a lot of questions. Maybe lurk and read a bit first? This thread is for discussing what's going on in the Arctic near real-time.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1582 on: May 28, 2017, 10:34:44 PM »
Uh oh. Could we be ice free by july?

Am very depressed over this now.
No. Some regions are likely to be hit very hard, but it is still unlikely we will have an ice free Arctic this season.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1583 on: May 28, 2017, 11:47:25 PM »
No we wont be ice free but we will be in the top 1 for low ice extent by september

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1584 on: May 29, 2017, 12:10:21 AM »
In reply to Jai: The effects of water vapor are very complex because low thin clouds can trap heat in some cases and disseminated vapor when cloud free is a powerful greenhouse gas, but thick clouds will reflect radiation and keep the ice cool.

For what it's worth, I don't think this years situation of later melt in the Beaufort this year than last is related to the water vapor. This season the high pressure came on much later and snow cover across the NH has been much deeper and covered more area. The high snow cover has been the key to keeping this May behind last year.

As to ice free this year. I don't think so. I think we'll see a new record low but ice has a way of piling up on the Greenland side of the pole.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1585 on: May 29, 2017, 12:27:47 AM »
Still keeping an eye on the CAA.
As the debris washes out to Baffin Bay, more and more water opens to insolation and waves.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1586 on: May 29, 2017, 12:35:23 AM »
As to ice free this year. I don't think so. I think we'll see a new record low but ice has a way of piling up on the Greenland side of the pole.

When there was a lot of MYI. Now it's all flushing through Fram Strait and other places. That extent and area in this season didn't show new record lows yet, is because of the spread of fractioned ice all over the Arctic. Given the right conditions, an ice free Arctic in September could very well be probable.

But as an average melting season is the most probable thing to assume, there's still a mayor probability of the polar region being covered by ice in September. But all in all the Arctic is becoming something similar to Hudson Bay ...
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1587 on: May 29, 2017, 03:11:38 AM »
The good: No El Niño. There is a relatively large extent of ice in the Barents. There is a relatively large extent of snow on the periphery of the Arctic. The North Atlantic seems cooler than in both 2016 and 2015. 

The bad: It is still warmer than the 20th century average in the arctic. The ice is thin. The pacific side looks in rough shape.

The ugly: The Nares Straight

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1588 on: May 29, 2017, 03:19:59 AM »
The last of the fast ice of northern Greenland east of the Nares has shattered.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/201705281857.NOAA.jpg

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1589 on: May 29, 2017, 03:35:27 AM »
Last week's forecast for a large high setting up near the pole with low pressure in the Barents Sea and strong southerly winds near Atlantic ice edge seems to be verifying I think.



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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1590 on: May 29, 2017, 04:37:54 AM »
And just like that, over the past week since I last posted, it appears that 2017 has taken the lead in snowmelt over 2016 in all areas of North America except for the North Slope of Alaska.  From the Mackenzie River Delta on east to Hudson Bay and Labrador, 2017 is in the lead now by a few days...at least, according to my eyes. 

2017 is now lagging behind 2016 in snowmelt only in the Chukchotka by a few days and along the White Sea / Kara Sea coast by a few weeks. 

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1591 on: May 29, 2017, 05:18:28 AM »
Wipneus posted a nice animation today in his Home Brew AMSR2 thread, showing the torching in Beaufort:



30 days in the Beaufort to May 28 from worldview showing - disintegration. Will dispersion everywhere continue to keep extent numbers deceptively high in the next weeks?

As well as the gif I've included jpgs of April 29 and May 28 - at the resolution I downloaded ~1600x1600 - the gif convert produced at this size was 100+MB. If anyone can point me in the direction of a movie format that supports arbitrary frame sizes please do - over on the gif thread http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1259.0.html


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1592 on: May 29, 2017, 11:37:56 AM »
Ice has acquired a blueish tone from Beaufort to Hudson (where the surface melting and albedo drop is dramatic). Snow cover disappearing fast now.
Below I show the GFS analysis of 2m temperature of past three days and of the three days to come, from tropicaltidbits.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1593 on: May 29, 2017, 12:02:53 PM »
is it likely that all the ice in the arctic will become one huge clockwise flowing iceberg and then refreeze back to the coasts in September leaving more multiyear ice once again?

A glass very half full assumption

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1594 on: May 29, 2017, 12:52:25 PM »
is it likely that all the ice in the arctic will become one huge clockwise flowing iceberg and then refreeze back to the coasts in September leaving more multiyear ice once again?

Pauldry, when I understand your question correctly, the assumption is, that the rotating ice will drift (by centrifugal forces?) towards the coast and refreeze there in september, creating new MYI.

But then the questions are:

The ice would move south towards warmer regions. Would it survive that?

And what is left in the polar center of the ice if such a movement occurs?
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1595 on: May 29, 2017, 01:15:23 PM »
is it likely that all the ice in the arctic will become one huge clockwise flowing iceberg and then refreeze back to the coasts in September leaving more multiyear ice once again?

A glass very half full assumption

No.

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1596 on: May 29, 2017, 01:23:19 PM »
GFS shows sustained winds next several days that will blow ice from northeastern Kara into Barents.
   does not bode well for Atlantic-side extent during June

pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1597 on: May 29, 2017, 01:27:17 PM »
is it likely that all the ice in the arctic will become one huge clockwise flowing iceberg and then refreeze back to the coasts in September leaving more multiyear ice once again?

A glass very half full assumption

No.

Well in that case we are completely and utterly screwed.

This was the only chink of light i could see. Need a cloudy foggy Summer or all sorts of changes in the climate system are likely. Gulp!

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1598 on: May 29, 2017, 02:43:36 PM »
Also not the best news for Kara Sea and Laptev Sea as coastal temps are increasing rapidly between Jun 2 - Jun 5. Image: Climate Reanalyzer, Jun 5 (GFS).

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1599 on: May 29, 2017, 03:28:30 PM »
...
As for where it could end up, these highs dominating don't bode well when it comes to melting momentum. I'll try and find some time this week to compare to previous years.
Please, do. It'd be most interesting to read, given your experience observing 'em seasons and everything.

P.S. "These" highs? Ain't we going for just one huge high in the middle with 5 lows all around it? Also, looking at thickness maps for CAA recently, and seeing that big high predicted, i just wonder: if this season will end up having Pole region completely ice-free (for hundreds miles around the Pole), - that would make big-time news, right?