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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1750 on: June 03, 2017, 08:04:50 PM »
@ seaicesailor

Y, melt-ponding is very weak in the ocean, only archipelago and hudson-bay show strong sign of melt-ponding. For me, it seem like a more normal to a weak start in melt saison

this could be related to the fragmentation. in parts there are so many "floes" at times of small size that it could be that the water is simply draining instead of staying on top of the ice and at least in parts. someone posted an image recently from "jack labe" where one could see a few small meltponds (light blue) and many more fissures and holes where the melting ice as well as rain would drain into. (dark blue/blackish)

Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1751 on: June 04, 2017, 10:03:59 AM »
Once the MYI in the Lincoln Sea has gone are we not likely to have an early opening of the Nares Strait every year?  Not sure if first year ice is strong enough to keep it closed.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1752 on: June 04, 2017, 10:11:15 AM »
Latest model runs seems more ice friendly with a more cyclonic weather impact later in the runs. While bad it might not be a complete disaster for the ice.

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1753 on: June 04, 2017, 11:04:24 AM »
Latest model runs seems more ice friendly with a more cyclonic weather impact later in the runs. While bad it might not be a complete disaster for the ice.

Perhaps the deterministic runs, but outside of 5 days it is largely a roll of the dice in the Arctic.  ECMWF ensembles look rough, and is the only model to even slightly trust beyond 120 hours.

 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2017060400&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=404
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1754 on: June 04, 2017, 11:31:01 AM »
Earth.nullschool is forecasting +26 °C for Hudson Bay coast tomorrow and +32 °C on Tuesday.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1755 on: June 04, 2017, 03:28:42 PM »
Once the MYI in the Lincoln Sea has gone are we not likely to have an early opening of the Nares Strait every year?  Not sure if first year ice is strong enough to keep it closed.
Most years there are ice bridges within Nares Strait, so ice freezes in place all the way into Lincoln Sea. Nares Strait ice bridges (or arches) are sometimes associated with 'favorable' winds that minimize ice movement, and young ice definitely makes up at least part of 'all' Nares Strait ice bridges.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1756 on: June 04, 2017, 04:14:54 PM »
Once the MYI in the Lincoln Sea has gone are we not likely to have an early opening of the Nares Strait every year?  Not sure if first year ice is strong enough to keep it closed.

Also, if the North Atlantic keeps warming, the Nares will be more likely to stay open longer.
Probably not new information for people here, but just in case: The warmer Atlantic waters enter the Arctic Ocean along Norway coast, then turn westward towards north of Greenland, and enter the Nares Straight from the north. With long annual ice cover on the straight (and Lincoln), those waters stay deep longer (they are warmer, but saltier, therefore denser. Dense enough to make them flow around the bottom of the ocean), while fresher, colder Arctic water stays on top.
But when the Straight is more open, then winds can whip up the surface causing an effect (Ekman Flux) that can build up and churn the deeper waters with the upper layers mixing the warmer, saltier, Atlantic water with the surface. So then there is a chance of a compounding effect in the Straight.

(Edit: Just realized this effect is being discussed in the Nares thread as we speak.
--> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.1100.html#lastPost )
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 04:40:02 PM by Thomas Barlow »

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1757 on: June 04, 2017, 05:31:30 PM »
North Pole today. Image: Worldview.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1758 on: June 04, 2017, 05:41:28 PM »
Once the MYI in the Lincoln Sea has gone are we not likely to have an early opening of the Nares Strait every year?  Not sure if first year ice is strong enough to keep it closed.

Also, if the North Atlantic keeps warming, the Nares will be more likely to stay open longer.
Probably not new information for people here, but just in case: The warmer Atlantic waters enter the Arctic Ocean along Norway coast, then turn westward towards north of Greenland, and enter the Nares Straight from the north. With long annual ice cover on the straight (and Lincoln), those waters stay deep longer (they are warmer, but saltier, therefore denser. Dense enough to make them flow around the bottom of the ocean), while fresher, colder Arctic water stays on top.
But when the Straight is more open, then winds can whip up the surface causing an effect (Ekman Flux) that can build up and churn the deeper waters with the upper layers mixing the warmer, saltier, Atlantic water with the surface. So then there is a chance of a compounding effect in the Straight.

(Edit: Just realized this effect is being discussed in the Nares thread as we speak.
--> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.1100.html#lastPost )

thanks for this, explains and answers many questions for us laymen very well :D :-)

mitch

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1759 on: June 04, 2017, 05:42:14 PM »
Another feature to watch:  Mackenzie River has broken up and 'warm' water from the south is building up in the delta behind shore fast ice.  This adds to significant warming in the Beaufort Sea.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1760 on: June 04, 2017, 06:37:28 PM »
HYCOM shows quite a situation developing over on the Atlantic front -- its accuracy would seemingly be confirmed by DMI, which shows the normal seasonal uptick in SSTs across peripheral seas, but a very abrupt and dramatic warming vs. normal (at least, I would think) across Barentz/Kara. It seems the huge pool of warm water in the NE NATL is finally making its presence known further to the north, just in time for the peak of the melt season.

This should have two main impacts; the first is that bottom melt is going to continue and worsen along the Atlantic front, and all the easy ice that has appeared there since last winter is about to melt very quickly. The second is the accumulation of warm water N of Scandinavia, which as summer goes on, should further lend itself to enhanced storminess/cyclonic activity, which will add in the continued export from FRAM while also destroying whatever remains along the Atlantic periphery through wave action/even stronger bottom melt.



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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1761 on: June 04, 2017, 07:09:58 PM »
Meant to post this here -- looking like a familiar pattern:
 



Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1762 on: June 04, 2017, 07:19:09 PM »
North Pole today. Image: Worldview.

It is not the fracturing that worries me but the lack of those rhomboid floe structures that, if iirc, are evidence of thick, strong MYI.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1763 on: June 04, 2017, 07:44:42 PM »
North Pole today. Image: Worldview.

It is not the fracturing that worries me but the lack of those rhomboid floe structures that, if iirc, are evidence of thick, strong MYI.

*Exactly*, SH, exactly.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1764 on: June 04, 2017, 08:21:08 PM »
With snowcover in Siberia's far North mostly melting out now, it seems less unlikely that the GFS projections will not verify. It has been consistent in blasting the Laptev/ESS with heat for several days now, and the forecast for said event is now within the D10 window. By no means a certainty, but if this does come to pass, the fast ice along the Siberian coast and the sea ice within Laptev/ESS are likely to disappear very quickly within the next two weeks. Combined with the rapid melting across the North American coast we are already seeing, and ongoing Pacific-side melting, this should pave the way for continental heat blasts to begin affecting the heart of the CAB by mid-June.



Combined with the forecast for the Atlantic sector, which is imminently going to endure a massive heat influx from the NATL and persistent LP that is conducive to FRAM export and bottom melt, it would appear we are indeed in for a June cliff this year. Whether Hudson/Baffin cooperate fully remains to be seen, but they will melt out one way or the other anyways -- if they coincide with the rest of what's imminently happening, the fall will be that much more impressive.

I would also argue that the forecast for the next two weeks implies that 2017 may actually increase its lead wrt volume loss vs. 2016 and 2012 -- things are looking extremely bleak on all fronts, and the large positive anomalies at the jaws of the FRAM are about to meet their doom, which could spell an additional increase in the current gap vs. 2012, and not in a direction that is favorable to the sea ice.

stackmaster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1765 on: June 04, 2017, 08:45:36 PM »
First bits of liquid muddy waters can be seen on worldview in the Lena river delta, one of the annual spectaculars is beginning to unfold. 

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1766 on: June 04, 2017, 08:49:59 PM »
Landfast ice along the ESS coast is still snow covered when it was largely bare last year and starting to melt in 2015 and2014. It then usually takes a month to break up, I am not convinced that this should go so much quicker when there is still snow on adjoining land.
I agree that the situation is unfavorable for the ice on the atlantic side and in the Chukchi where ice is thinner than last year and moving west with large open areas behind.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1767 on: June 04, 2017, 09:27:11 PM »
The 12Z ECMWF goes hostile at D2 and nuclear at D4. Building heights over the Pacific side of the Basin and very warm temps on the Atlantic margin should result in a two-front rapid retreat of the ice margins and widespread melt ponding. How much damage is done depends on how long that pattern lasts. The ensembles were hostile to D6, but due to poor skill scores lately, it's probably best to disregard progs after the D6 timeframe.

Koop in VA

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1768 on: June 04, 2017, 09:30:27 PM »
By no means a certainty, but if this does come to pass, the fast ice along the Siberian coast and the sea ice within Laptev/ESS are likely to disappear very quickly within the next two weeks. 



I'm not sure I would agree with that.  According to the extent of Laptev and ESS seen here: https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png?attachauth=ANoY7cpSEeCqcKPYju2nnUCHciAZwJ1DUK-llGD23dD4A_cV-3UanzI3gbjjGKABDiHxSBERUgWv4UYAWlebT35DPu6RtXzbUZxxHavhnbEAieyzlSp_hWsN9BO3DYQnhbXXqftPw5u3zZ-eeYtaMrBtM_tn1Jn1SA41o5NchmSJypuvoW_I0KoQrfuxdZnDmTa7OI5gdy-YpKzSkwegs1jdEhQ2djf3UpWYLIqFIeK6vKbHqqiYcCBY27mMxEKO-Q-eyYM4TzMw&attredirects=0

We have over 1.3M km sq worth of extent and if they melt out they normally don't do so until August.  IMO, the next couple of weeks could develop Neven's melting momentum for both Laptev/ESS but hard to imagine even 25% of it melting out in two weeks.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1769 on: June 04, 2017, 09:41:23 PM »
Myriad of leads across the North Pole and flat ice is seen on a dark image. There is no doubt that the ice has considerably weakened from multiyear ice of era when transoceanic leads and their secondary and tertiary leads ruled the top of the world in limited numbers across central Arctic. 

North Pole today. Image: Worldview.

It is not the fracturing that worries me but the lack of those rhomboid floe structures that, if iirc, are evidence of thick, strong MYI.

*Exactly*, SH, exactly.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 10:12:08 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1770 on: June 04, 2017, 11:02:45 PM »
Like Andreas says there's the snow cover, but there's another but... as well. Sea surface temperature anomalies is not near what it was last year, as can be seen on this comparison (June 4th 2015 vs June 7th 2016 vs June 3rd 2017):



Okay, still four days to go before I can really compare like with like, but SST seems to be running a lot colder on the Atlantic side of the Arctic than in 2015 and 2016.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 11:40:43 PM by Neven »
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Reallybigbunny

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1771 on: June 04, 2017, 11:07:07 PM »
The calm before the storm.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1772 on: June 04, 2017, 11:19:43 PM »
Like Andreas says there's the snow cover, but there's another but... as well. Sea surface temperature anomalies is not near what it was last year, as can be seen on this comparison (June 4th 2015 vs June 7th 2016 vs June 3rd 2017):



Okay, still four days to go before I can really compare like with like, but SST seems to be running a lot colder on the Atlantic side of the Arctic than in 2015 and 2016.
The persistent circulation in May, with winds blowing from the Arctic over the Barents and then the Atlantic had to have a strong effect on the SSTs. The question is if the underlying currents have changed. If not, the SST can look similar to past years in a few weeks...
The Chukchi sea is importing a nice batch of Pacific water (at least in the surface)


Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1773 on: June 04, 2017, 11:21:18 PM »
Neven,
Quote
SST seems to be running a lot colder on the Atlantic side of the Arctic than in 2015 and 2016.

Wouldn't that be because dispersion has allowed more of the heat energy on that side to go toward melting the ice, even if that has been bottom melt? That may be rhetorical for now. The ice in that area looks like something has taken a toll on it, but we will soon see how it holds up, and then we will truly know the extent that such heat has attacked it from below. I am just thinking that maybe it went to that end, rather than heating the open surface as much.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1774 on: June 04, 2017, 11:38:13 PM »
Big waves inside Baffin Bay are causing half meter waves to propagate into the CAA on that side, and the activity in Amundsen Gulf is causing a similar phenomenon on the other end of the passages. This seems to be becoming a perpetual situation, and is working on the ice in between from both ends.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 12:17:52 AM by Tigertown »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1775 on: June 05, 2017, 05:44:56 AM »
May sea ice concentration in the Arctic region. There might be a random day or two missing.



Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1776 on: June 05, 2017, 05:55:20 AM »
North Pole today. Image: Worldview.

It is not the fracturing that worries me but the lack of those rhomboid floe structures that, if iirc, are evidence of thick, strong MYI.

*Exactly*, SH, exactly.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1777 on: June 05, 2017, 08:46:39 AM »
Despite the persistence of snow cover in Siberia there appears to be at least some meltponding on the fast ice in the ESS. This image is from June 5

Often Distant

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1778 on: June 05, 2017, 10:32:56 AM »
Interesting how the cracks from the Nares opening appear on this map. Like lightning striking the pole.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1779 on: June 05, 2017, 02:19:39 PM »
This map, as well as Wipneus' animation based on latest PIOMAS data, and as well as latest data about developing dipole - all those show one same thing we've been waiting for: big-time acceleration of melt (both happening and further expected) on the Atlantic side of ASI. It is pretty much "normal" for it to happen now, but i somehow had a glimpse of hope Atlantic side would hold up a little longer.

Because it would be pretty much required for Atlantic half to resist much better than "normal" if to compensate for big-time melt happening from the Pacific. But now, i think we're most likely going for "record low" season, i think. The only saving from that happening would be unusually ice-friendly weather for 2nd half of June and most of July, i think; chances of that? Not very high, per "unusual" term definition.

P.S. anyone willing to comment in more detail on latest PIOMAS data? Or are you guys just speechless seing it? Things are bad...

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1780 on: June 05, 2017, 04:15:00 PM »
...  anyone willing to comment in more detail on latest PIOMAS data? Or are you guys just speechless seing it? Things are bad...
See Neven's latest post (dated June 4th) on the ASIB.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/06/piomas-june-2017.html

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1781 on: June 05, 2017, 04:59:48 PM »
Despite the persistence of snow cover in Siberia there appears to be at least some meltponding on the fast ice in the ESS. This image is from June 5
I may be misreading what your arrow is pointing at but some of those dark patches are cloud shadows. The 7,2,1 bands on worldview are very good at showing up surface water (dark blue) and clouds (white) against snow/ice (light blue)
https://go.nasa.gov/2rL5eoV
meltponding on Chaunskaya bay was stronger at this time in 2016 and 2015 (by a few days) and more extensive along the coast to the west, where it is still absent at this time.
Snow cover on the land near the bay started to clear some time ago but lower temperatures have slowed this down. The rivers flowing into the bay are nevertheless starting to pour water onto the ice (small dark patches are appearing). To see developments in previous years look for the "Siberian coast " thread.
The feature which will make a difference there is the open water in the ocean off the bay which is absorbing much more sunlight than the ice cover.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1782 on: June 05, 2017, 10:41:50 PM »
DMI temps blipped down and further delayed the Arctic melt onset. But for how much longer?

bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1783 on: June 05, 2017, 10:55:20 PM »
The last one is of an area of Parry Channel which appears to be melting out rather than breaking up (though other areas further down have broken up).

That has now triggered a spectacular breakup in the Parry Channel.

Iain

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1784 on: June 05, 2017, 11:01:14 PM »
Ice breakup at the SE end of Parry Channel
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1785 on: June 05, 2017, 11:16:29 PM »
Nothing but gravy for the gullet. There is not even one floe out there trying to impersonate a solid piece any longer. Not even one. Not in this part of the Arctic.

Sarat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1786 on: June 05, 2017, 11:32:35 PM »
Any chance we see an eye of open water form at the poll in a week or so?


crandles

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1787 on: June 06, 2017, 12:44:12 AM »
Any chance we see an eye of open water form at the poll in a week or so?

those in favour say eye  ;)

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1788 on: June 06, 2017, 01:29:38 AM »
Any chance we see an eye of open water form at the poll in a week or so?

None. I'm pretty confident this is noise - you don't see anything on WorldView or any other source. Usually this is melt ponding (not open water)... But it's too cold for that there.

I guess it's possible divergence in the pack opens water there, but that's slower than this.

Let's see what it says tonight... or if we get an unobscured visual pass.

In the meantime I'm really wondering how long it can be so warm on the shores of Hudson Bay (80F/27C forecast tomorrow for Port Nelson.. with rain!) without the ice just off the shore melting or showing any negative impacts. I can't imagine much worse weather for ice...

But then I'm planning on skiing on July the 4th up in Tahoe, so... maybe snow/ice is just immune to warm weather this year?  :)


subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1789 on: June 06, 2017, 02:34:26 AM »
Despite the persistence of snow cover in Siberia there appears to be at least some meltponding on the fast ice in the ESS. This image is from June 5
I may be misreading what your arrow is pointing at but some of those dark patches are cloud shadows. The 7,2,1 bands on worldview are very good at showing up surface water (dark blue) and clouds (white) against snow/ice (light blue)
https://go.nasa.gov/2rL5eoV
meltponding on Chaunskaya bay was stronger at this time in 2016 and 2015 (by a few days) and more extensive along the coast to the west, where it is still absent at this time.
Snow cover on the land near the bay started to clear some time ago but lower temperatures have slowed this down. The rivers flowing into the bay are nevertheless starting to pour water onto the ice (small dark patches are appearing). To see developments in previous years look for the "Siberian coast " thread.
The feature which will make a difference there is the open water in the ocean off the bay which is absorbing much more sunlight than the ice cover.

Yes there are some clouds, but there is also some blue, which indicates melt [edit: or liquid water at any rate whether fro in situ melting or flow from the land] - I'm not suggesting it is stronger than some other year.

I have to agree that is the open water that will have more effect
« Last Edit: June 06, 2017, 03:23:50 AM by subgeometer »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1790 on: June 06, 2017, 02:58:20 AM »
Any chance we see an eye of open water form at the poll in a week or so?

There is an interesting split in flow between the Nares and Fram Straits but surface wind patterns will dominate extent in the middle of the CAB.
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1791 on: June 06, 2017, 03:34:05 AM »
There is a small chance of a tiny eye but as said its remote. This graph tends to go yellow n then be pink next day which is what will occur

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1792 on: June 06, 2017, 03:43:31 AM »
HOLY SHIT:

Fournier Triangulation Reversion Processed Image of the Lincoln Sea Ice reveals substratum of further leads and coastal regions made of pulverized pancake ice heading to Nares and Fram. :-\

Bottom: Fournier Compression flattens the landscapes on the computer screens also. Here a close-up of Ellesmere Coast to avoid f-triangulation flattening that shows clearly pulverization towards pancake size ice substratum. .. run these methods to fill your pockets with dollar bills with a printer... :P
« Last Edit: June 06, 2017, 03:54:54 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1793 on: June 06, 2017, 03:45:56 AM »
It's windier over sea water than ice.

The climate reanalyser/GFS forecasts seem to have been showing  a correlation between the open areas and increased windiness recently. (despite those waters still being near freezing, so I'm not sure how seriously to take it) The latest 12z run it shows at least 30kmh wind all week in the open area in the Chukchi Sea, blowing at the ice, and peaking around 60kmh about 5 days out. The forecasts are garbage that far out of course

A low is also forecast to head into the basin over the  New Siberian Islands in about 60 hours, whose winds intensify, again to around 60kmh, as it heads over the open water nearby. I guess we'll see if this plays out.

Extra waves hammer the ice, but also mix warmer water from below feeding back into more wind (?)

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1794 on: June 06, 2017, 05:06:17 AM »
HOLY SHIT:

Fournier Triangulation Reversion Processed Image of the Lincoln Sea Ice reveals substratum of further leads and coastal regions made of pulverized pancake ice heading to Nares and Fram. :-\

Bottom: Fournier Compression flattens the landscapes on the computer screens also. Here a close-up of Ellesmere Coast to avoid f-triangulation flattening that shows clearly pulverization towards pancake size ice substratum. .. run these methods to fill your pockets with dollar bills with a printer... :P
I find it striking how the ice along all the larger leads that opened up is disintegrating into what almost looks like long channels, 10-20 KM wide of slush reaching deep into the central pack.

If it is all disintegrating into sub 100 meter floes, that does portend rapid melting out of those channels and exponentially increasing instability as they do.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1795 on: June 06, 2017, 06:23:57 AM »
Stuck in the middle, but not for long.

budmantis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1796 on: June 06, 2017, 06:54:48 AM »
HOLY SHIT:


"HOLY SHIT" is right! Thanks for the great graphics VAK!

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1797 on: June 06, 2017, 07:03:13 AM »
Ball bearings at coasts somewhat less smooth rounded bearings elsewhere on the leads. Roundness in the darker areas would indicate leads not breaking ridges. Both let the IR dark of the ocean show up on channels of IR. The pack's on the move, how fast is a question as well as the thickness. Surprising open areas may start to show up B4 long.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1798 on: June 06, 2017, 07:29:17 AM »
In the meantime I'm really wondering how long it can be so warm on the shores of Hudson Bay (80F/27C forecast tomorrow for Port Nelson.. with rain!) without the ice just off the shore melting or showing any negative impacts. I can't imagine much worse weather for ice...

If the below is anything to go by, it won't be long. This is 11 days from 26th May.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1799 on: June 06, 2017, 09:48:15 AM »
108 hour loop of the Beaufort Sea.  You can see the clockwise flow of high pressure setting up over the last couple days, and in my opinion, some gyrating which should be encouraged according to the weather forecasts.  Not to mention relatively clear skies allowing for better viewing.

Imagery courtesy of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks.

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