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cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2300 on: June 26, 2017, 08:53:04 AM »
So yeah, all very interesting, but we still can't say which way this will go.  :)

If the 2017 volume path is kinda like 2011 or 2012, we'll get a bit of accelerated volume loss in July or August, and see a record low volume.  If 2017 is kinda like 2016 and keeps a steady pace, we're likely to tie 2012 for a record low.  If 2017 is somehow like 2014 and volume loss decelerates, we'll see one of the four lowest volumes of all time.

With compactness dropping now, 2017 is not looking like 2014...

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2301 on: June 26, 2017, 08:57:55 AM »
So, the story so far, was that PIOMAS volume is record low, which speaks in favour of a possible new record low minimum this year, whereas snow cover, melt ponding and SST spoke (somewhat) against it.
Thank you Neven for a great overview, and I agree on the struggle between PIOMAS volume, and snow cover, melt ponding and SST.
Some notes on your post here :
Quote
In the meantime, snow cover no longer plays a role:

I'm not sure I agree with that. Yes, land snow cover anomaly has been reduced, but it is not gone. Remember that the lines on that graph are 1 million km^2 thick !
Since the 4 million km^2 anomaly from the May average, the anomaly is still there, but since we still don't have daily land snow numbers available, we need to wait until the beginning of July until we know the true extent of land snow over June.
And recall that correlation analysis suggests that for every 1 M km^2 of land snow anomaly in June, some 160 k km^2 of ice disappears in September. That is not unsubstantial, but not negligible either.

Quote
SST anomaly is still not making a lot of progress on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, but is still going strong on the Pacific side (and possibly within the various holes, although these will always show up as strong anomaly because normally there's ice there):
...
And compactness has been dropping fast lately, which is probably a sign of melt ponding (corroborated by the bluish hue on satellite images of the Arctic), although dispersion is probably also playing a role, given the big cyclone churning things up right now:

SST in 'holes' like the Beaufort and overall compactness and their influence on the melting season are also captured nicely by Nico Sun's 'albedo potential' graphs :
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs
which also suggests (just as you did) that 2017 so far has been kind of in the middle of the pack.

Quote
But PIOMAS has stalled somewhat, and with 2012 dropping precipitously around this time of year it's almost on a par with 2017 (more info on the mid-month update in the PIOMAS thread):

Yeah. That (PIOMAS anomaly) was really scary a month ago, but even though ice-volume did catch up with 2012, we are not out of the woods yet. PIOMAS is still running at record low, and we need some bad weather to let it move into 'safe' territory.

Quote
So yeah, all very interesting, but we still can't say which way this will go.  :)

It has been a very interesting struggle so far between ice volume and land snow/ice concentration/melting ponds, and it seems that so far they have evened out.

But I personally feel a bit uncomfortable now with that new dipole coming up...
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2302 on: June 26, 2017, 09:05:49 AM »
The latest operational run is no longer showing such a disastrous dipole pattern around the Arctic but a huge high pressure dome covering virtually the whole basin. And with acentering towards Svalbard. The model run shows that it isn't certain that a dipole pattern will develop. We'll have to wait and see. What should be pretty clear is that we'll see more high pressure dominated weather for the next 10 days. Thiswill give the melting some  boost as we are close to the solstice.Another 2 weeks later and the effect wouldn't been the same. But the sun is  still strong and able to do a decent damage to the ice.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2303 on: June 26, 2017, 09:52:43 AM »
Dipole or not, the OP shows some scary 850 hPa temps. Assuming warm air inflow from America, and insolation on top of it.
But let's wait and see, it is pretty far out

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2304 on: June 26, 2017, 10:03:04 AM »
I'm confused why you think this is a slow melting season when Wip's numbers show that the CAB is at a record minimum area for this date, and I think we are around third lowest for extent on NSIDC. Surely a slow melting season would have us at above average extent?

Because 2017 had a headstart on both SIE and volume, which is no longer there. May extent loss was an unimpressive 12th smallest, June has been a little quicker, relative to other years, but still far behind 2012. The snow cover was slow to melt, melt ponds came late and there hasn't been much melt momentum - until now - just a steady chiping away of ice which was record thin and weak to begin with. 2017 would end nowhere close to 2012 minimum if this trend contiued another month. Fortunately, it wont.
I think that a pretty good amount of ice was getting melted all along, but this was disguised by excessive dispersion.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2305 on: June 26, 2017, 10:11:07 AM »
I think that a pretty good amount of ice was getting melted all along, but this was disguised by excessive dispersion.

This - and I remember a quote where someone stated that excessive amounts of slush tricked the PIOMAS-sensors in believing that there is much more ice than in fact exists.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2306 on: June 26, 2017, 10:32:48 AM »
I copied this from www.polarview.aq/arctic and it is the same chart from Uni-Bremen but with a white background, which seems to make the colors pop more. Maybe it's just me.
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2307 on: June 26, 2017, 12:26:22 PM »
It has been a very interesting struggle so far between ice volume and land snow/ice concentration/melting ponds, and it seems that so far they have evened out.

But I personally feel a bit uncomfortable now with that new dipole coming up...

Yes, the weather forecast isn't looking good for the ice. High pressure over the Beaufort Sea (and possible beyond) could deliver a massive blow to the already thin ice. I wouldn't be surprised if this is then followed by another, more powerful cyclone in July.

Fortunately, the Atlantic seems to run less 'hot' than we've seen in previous years.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2308 on: June 26, 2017, 01:20:52 PM »
... May extent loss was an unimpressive 12th smallest, June has been a little quicker, relative to other years, but still far behind 2012. The snow cover was slow to melt, melt ponds came late and there hasn't been much melt momentum - until now - just a steady chiping away of ice which was record thin and weak to begin with. 2017 would end nowhere close to 2012 minimum if this trend contiued another month. Fortunately, it wont.
"Fortunately"? Why it'd be "fortunate"?
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slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2309 on: June 26, 2017, 01:22:03 PM »
EOSDIS Worldview shows the 'low concentration' regions on the Atlantic side of the U Bremen AMSR2 map as genuine gaps in the ice rather than melt ponds.

  As can be seen by comparing the figures below, the boundary of first year sea ice seems to also roughly bound the main region of low concentration within the Arctic Basin proper. That is, the first year ice in that region already has gaps whereas the second year ice next to it is generally in better shape.

  To guide the eye, I've drawn a boundary line on each of the the three maps - but only roughly - the 3 lines will coincide only approximately.

  This lower concentration first year ice will struggle to survive the melt season, especially if July is sunny on the Atlantic side.

   It's going to be interesting to see how near this year's melt out will come to the North Pole.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2310 on: June 26, 2017, 01:22:27 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

an idea that's not necessarily the case is that with the ice getting thinner each year, more and more dirt/soot accumulates on the surface. an example for this happening is the glaciers in the alps (and elsewhere) that get darker and darker in summer when the snow cover melted and this year's surface melt adds to the previous years.

there is a certain amount of sand and other dirt in the ice and some glaciers know entire regions where the ice is almost fully covered by the stuff, which of course accelerates the melting process through increased albedo. the end result in some places is a black surface and not all is just dust, at times there are small stone fragments, at least on glaciers, not necessarily/probable in the arctic and most propably not on sea-ice due to lack of sources for stones. what remains is the dust made from volcanic ashes from centuries and sand imported from deserts over time.

An interesting idea Maggie, and I get where you are coming from, but this particular ice melts out in the summer.

ok, thanks for the heads up, was focusing on soot instead of considering the exact location, so it either is fresh ash etc. or something in the imagery.

resume, idea not valid, thanks, perhaps someone else has more insight, let's see.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2311 on: June 26, 2017, 01:35:32 PM »
It has been a very interesting struggle so far between ice volume and land snow/ice concentration/melting ponds, and it seems that so far they have evened out.

But I personally feel a bit uncomfortable now with that new dipole coming up...

Yes, the weather forecast isn't looking good for the ice. High pressure over the Beaufort Sea (and possible beyond) could deliver a massive blow to the already thin ice. I wouldn't be surprised if this is then followed by another, more powerful cyclone in July.

Fortunately, the Atlantic seems to run less 'hot' than we've seen in previous years.

considering all the ice that was pushed into the atlantic and in great part melted there, there must be some kind of impact on SST in that region which, once the ice has melted out entirely in the periphery SST could catch up very quickly considering that the heat is not just a surface thingy but that there is a huge water column for heat storage. what do you think about making this connection ?

Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2312 on: June 26, 2017, 01:42:23 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

an idea that's not necessarily the case is that with the ice getting thinner each year, more and more dirt/soot accumulates on the surface. an example for this happening is the glaciers in the alps (and elsewhere) that get darker and darker in summer when the snow cover melted and this year's surface melt adds to the previous years.

there is a certain amount of sand and other dirt in the ice and some glaciers know entire regions where the ice is almost fully covered by the stuff, which of course accelerates the melting process through increased albedo. the end result in some places is a black surface and not all is just dust, at times there are small stone fragments, at least on glaciers, not necessarily/probable in the arctic and most propably not on sea-ice due to lack of sources for stones. what remains is the dust made from volcanic ashes from centuries and sand imported from deserts over time.

An interesting idea Maggie, and I get where you are coming from, but this particular ice melts out in the summer.

ok, thanks for the heads up, was focusing on soot instead of considering the exact location, so it either is fresh ash etc. or something in the imagery.

resume, idea not valid, thanks, perhaps someone else has more insight, let's see.

An earlier post by Buds on this thread points out that the ice in this area is always that colour, but not knowing the cause.
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meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2313 on: June 26, 2017, 03:05:46 PM »
The Ice lateral to the marked areas look pretty blueish to me. That's a couple of million km2.

Rick Aster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2314 on: June 26, 2017, 03:49:31 PM »
I am surprised at the rate of melt in the Greenland Sea this month. I had thought it was jammed with ice, but now it looks at risk to melt out. Surely more ice will come along before that can happen. I can't remember Greenland Sea ice looking much weaker than this.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2315 on: June 26, 2017, 03:57:53 PM »
Quote
: RoxTheGeologist  Today at 02:02:19 AM
I'm confused why you think this is a slow melting season when Wip's numbers show that the CAB is at a record minimum area for this date, and I think we are around third lowest for extent on NSIDC. Surely a slow melting season would have us at above average extent?

: Rubikscube  Today at 07:46:56 AM
Because 2017 had a headstart on both SIE and volume, which is no longer there. May extent loss was an unimpressive 12th smallest, June has been a little quicker, relative to other years, but still far behind 2012. The snow cover was slow to melt, melt ponds came late and there hasn't been much melt momentum - until now - just a steady chiping away of ice which was record thin and weak to begin with. 2017 would end nowhere close to 2012 minimum if this trend continued another month. Fortunately, it wont.

Except that the Arctic Ocean is currently the lowest volume on record is it not?

Sterks

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2316 on: June 26, 2017, 04:07:28 PM »
Favorite chart: the ECMWF forecast of temperature in five days time, at 850 hPa level from wetterzentrale. Similar to what was brought over Beaufort sea, will get worse, along the coasts, deeper in the pack

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2317 on: June 26, 2017, 04:33:07 PM »

UPDATE for NSIDC SIE
x 106 km2

2017,    06,  18,     10.537
2017,    06,  19,     10.453
2017,    06,  20,     10.383
2017,    06,  21,     10.293
2017,    06,  22,     10.234
2017,    06,  23,     10.124
2017,    06,  24,     10.034
2017,    06,  25,      9.941
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2318 on: June 26, 2017, 05:05:38 PM »
Slater's #s for August have taken a nosedive in the past few days and I expect the trend will only worsen as we get a clear picture of just how much of the Arctic is about to melt out. The extent/area numbers hide this year's volume deficit (in particular, across the Beaufort/western CAB).

I wonder if in addition to a July cliff, we also see an unprecedented continuing drop in late August/early September. There will be so much more thin ice at that time than normal (and so much more open water) that this year may seem to be a more plausible candidate for "delayed refreeze" than even last year, which in itself was... shocking.




F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2319 on: June 26, 2017, 05:06:25 PM »
ESAS hole got quite very big recently, it seems. And growing fast (open water area there), right? There is this recent publication which explains my worry, that is. Any chances ESAS would at least stop getting more open water during July? Probably not?
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2320 on: June 26, 2017, 05:29:57 PM »
Except that the Arctic Ocean is currently the lowest volume on record is it not?

And your point is? Read my comment again and find that no one disputes that 2017 is still in contention for record minimums. The fact is that all the volume deficit you refer to is the result of the disastrous 2016/17 refreeze and got nothing to do with this melting season. Rather to the opposite, since 1st May - the start of melting proper - net volume loss have been comparable to 2014, allowing the difference to all the front runners (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2016) to shrink substantially. Relative to the last 7 years, that is called a slow melt.

Every year since 2012 the same thing happens, some people fall into the optimist bias trap and start looking for confirmation that this is going to be another record breaker instead of trying to analyze the data objectively.
"Fortunately"? Why it'd be "fortunate"?
I believe the general arguments for that can be found in another thread, but I'm not gonna pretend that I have any moralist qualms about being exited by the prospect of new record minimums.



Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2321 on: June 26, 2017, 06:12:41 PM »
some people fall into the optimist bias trap and start looking for confirmation that this is going to be another record breaker instead of trying to analyze the data objectively.
In the long run (let's say over the last 10 years), those "optimists" have alway been proven right.

"Fortunately"? Why it'd be "fortunate"?
I believe the general arguments for that can be found in another thread, but I'm not gonna pretend that I have any moralist qualms about being exited by the prospect of new record minimums.
I don't think this is about moralist qualms once one grasps the possible consequences of a blue ocean event.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2322 on: June 26, 2017, 06:21:07 PM »
Quote
I don't think this is about moralist qualms once one grasps the possible consequences of a blue ocean event.
That would make a good thread:  What Can Blue Do For You? (No link yet, just in conceptual stage)
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2323 on: June 26, 2017, 06:22:49 PM »
Rubikscube says:
"Every year since 2012 the same thing happens, some people fall into the optimist bias trap and start looking for confirmation that this is going to be another record breaker instead of trying to analyze the data objectively."

The external reality of Arctic sea ice is neither optimistic nor pessimistic with respect to the ongoing melt season. Thus, it is not objective to minimize the significance of the fact that 2017 has the lowest volume metric, still; and among the lowest extent/area readings in the satellite era. Objectivity mandates a report on data without bias one way or the other.

The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2324 on: June 26, 2017, 06:41:31 PM »
Except that the Arctic Ocean is currently the lowest volume on record is it not?

And your point is?

the point is that every post that tries to reduce the gravity of the current conditions as well as development over recent years leaves a bit of a smell of bias and/or talk just to talk or contradict just to be heard. not saying it is, most often probably not but the impression remains at times.

further i'm repeating here that the less ice there is on max, i.e. extent or volume, the less of it is periphery and it's absolutely logical that some of the headstart will be gone sooner or later because the early melting regions and easy to melt ice is/are reduced from the start.

once we shall have half of the ice in march, we can never face the same rate of loss till june and sooner or later the total amount of ice to melt from max to minimum (i.e. zero) will be smaller than the melting rate in any year before 2000.

what i expect is that some denialists will have the "toupé" to claim a recovery just because the amount of ice lost between march and July will be smaller than it was 20 years ago, not considering that only ice that is there can melt at all.

what i'm saying for the umpteenth time is that the less ice we have, the smaller the melt rate will be due lack of material that can melt.

another point is that it makes little sense how some users cherry pick each year the criteria that meats there views. volume is lowest (after all the only that really counts) and extent is very low but not lowest and what we see here is a discussion over pages about laggy melting, (see above why)

all this does not matter, the ice is going down the river and is worse than last year, no matter whether extent is lowest or not, period, not much more to be added to that FACT while most of those back and forth arguments are about short term interpretations, a typical human limitation IMO.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2325 on: June 26, 2017, 07:01:17 PM »
Slater's #s for August have taken a nosedive in the past few days and I expect the trend will only worsen as we get a clear picture of just how much of the Arctic is about to melt out. The extent/area numbers hide this year's volume deficit (in particular, across the Beaufort/western CAB).





Now, that's a more realistic Big Picture.
Though, I' d be surprised if we end up with that much Ice by 15th August. As You noted correctly, the Observational Data has already taken a Nosedive form the Projection Graph.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2326 on: June 26, 2017, 07:31:18 PM »
The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.
I don't agree. All Rubikscube says is there is another metric, the rate of volume decline, and this one has been in the low side since May. Objectively, this is correct, and not wanting to see it is biased thinking. There was a lot of snow in the NH, a lot of coldness associated and it really showed.
Said so, the melting has really gained momentum with the heat dragged by the storm, didn't it? Prospects are not good.
EDIT. Actually I would say that the rate of volume decline has not been smaller, but has been delayed by weeks, as delayed as the snow cover melt in the NH has been, as was clearly shown in the Rutgers maps. The thing is: the solstice comes at the same date always, give or take one day, so that delay means for sure more ice in September
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 07:36:58 PM by seaicesailor »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2327 on: June 26, 2017, 07:55:16 PM »
Except that the Arctic Ocean is currently the lowest volume on record is it not?

And your point is?

The sea-ice extent of the whole of the northern hemisphere is a red herring.
Only the volume of the Arctic Ocean matters, because once it is weakened enough, it can collapse quickly.
I will go skating on sea-ice in Ontario (Hudson Bay) even after the Arctic Ocean crumbles. ;D

« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 09:17:53 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2328 on: June 26, 2017, 08:38:17 PM »

And your point is?

the point is that every post that tries to reduce the gravity of the current conditions as well as development over recent years leaves a bit of a smell of bias and/or talk just to talk or contradict just to be heard.

Haha, I first came here to comment (#2288 ) on what a scorcher this melting season is now setting up to be. Then I'm asked to answer for my moderating bi-sentence, and in going so subsequently being accused of contradicting the common narrative just to grab attention (trolling?)? Anyway, Seaicesailor gets my point - and makes a good summary of the situation - if you don't, lets just agree to disagree (just don't come back in September and tell me "I told you so" :) ).

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2329 on: June 26, 2017, 08:50:24 PM »

And your point is?

the point is that every post that tries to reduce the gravity of the current conditions as well as development over recent years leaves a bit of a smell of bias and/or talk just to talk or contradict just to be heard.

Haha, I first came here to comment (#2288 ) on what a scorcher this melting season is now setting up to be. Then I'm asked to answer for my moderating bi-sentence, and in going so subsequently being accused of contradicting the common narrative just to grab attention (trolling?)? Anyway, Seaicesailor gets my point - and makes a good summary of the situation - if you don't, lets just agree to disagree (just don't come back in September and tell me "I told you so" :) ).

well, that's fair, to agree to disagree is always a good option till results are available, deal :-)

a smell is not an accusation but something to consider, it was meant to explain the reaction you replied to before my post. as to who get whose point, watch carefully, some people would disagree always with what some others write. kind of personal thing after that something went into the left brain half, hard to get things out of there and mostly it's my fault that it happens due to choice of wording, mea culpa, no problem, still learning like everyone should

enjoy further and nothing personal, let's see how things turn out ;) :D

jplotinus

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2330 on: June 26, 2017, 09:12:51 PM »
The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.
I don't agree. All Rubikscube says is there is another metric, the rate of volume decline, and this one has been in the low side since May. Objectively, this is correct, and not wanting to see it is biased thinking. There was a lot of snow in the NH, a lot of coldness associated and it really showed.
Said so, the melting has really gained momentum with the heat dragged by the storm, didn't it? Prospects are not good.
EDIT. Actually I would say that the rate of volume decline has not been smaller, but has been delayed by weeks, as delayed as the snow cover melt in the NH has been, as was clearly shown in the Rutgers maps. The thing is: the solstice comes at the same date always, give or take one day, so that delay means for sure more ice in September

Your edit suggests that you do not agree with Ribikscube, though you don't actually say that. I would add that I do not consider Rubikscube as having introduced a metric of rate of volume decline because Rubikscube has chosen to limit the field of data comparison to only a handful of years, precisely in a manner that might be seen as a bias in favor of predicting a high, non-record, minimum.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2331 on: June 26, 2017, 09:46:33 PM »
The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.
I don't agree. All Rubikscube says is there is another metric, the rate of volume decline, and this one has been in the low side since May. Objectively, this is correct, and not wanting to see it is biased thinking. There was a lot of snow in the NH, a lot of coldness associated and it really showed.
Said so, the melting has really gained momentum with the heat dragged by the storm, didn't it? Prospects are not good.
EDIT. Actually I would say that the rate of volume decline has not been smaller, but has been delayed by weeks, as delayed as the snow cover melt in the NH has been, as was clearly shown in the Rutgers maps. The thing is: the solstice comes at the same date always, give or take one day, so that delay means for sure more ice in September

Your edit suggests that you do not agree with Ribikscube, though you don't actually say that. I would add that I do not consider Rubikscube as having introduced a metric of rate of volume decline because Rubikscube has chosen to limit the field of data comparison to only a handful of years, precisely in a manner that might be seen as a bias in favor of predicting a high, non-record, minimum.
A delayed sinusoidal function is slower in its decline from its maximum than the original sine function without delay, for the same moment of time. Take the volume as a sinusoidal function. I really agree with Rubikscube

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2332 on: June 26, 2017, 09:46:47 PM »

And your point is?

the point is that every post that tries to reduce the gravity of the current conditions as well as development over recent years leaves a bit of a smell of bias and/or talk just to talk or contradict just to be heard.
Haha, I first came here to comment (#2288 ) on what a scorcher this melting season is now setting up to be. Then I'm asked to answer for my moderating bi-sentence, and in going so subsequently being accused of contradicting the common narrative just to grab attention (trolling?)? Anyway, Seaicesailor gets my point - and makes a good summary of the situation - if you don't, lets just agree to disagree (just don't come back in September and tell me "I told you so" :) ).

I may just be confusing people's nicknames. I think until about 2-3 weeks ago, the Greenland Sea, the Fram, Baffin Bay, and Hudson Bay, may have had more ice extent than last year for example, so that made the total northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent melt-season look slow, but in fact the volume in the Arctic Ocean (the only bit that seems to matter) was plummeting all the time. So I was just commenting on someone who said it was a slow melt-season.  I don't see it that way because I consider the Arctic Ocean volume to be the most important factor in a future collapse.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2017, 02:27:21 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2333 on: June 26, 2017, 09:49:00 PM »
Just for a snapshot and visual interest, here is June 26 2016 compared to Sept. 15 2016, and June 26th 2017 as a comparison.
Fill in the blank for Sept 15th 2017.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2334 on: June 26, 2017, 10:16:44 PM »
Quote
I don't think this is about moralist qualms once one grasps the possible consequences of a blue ocean event.
That would make a good thread:  What Can Blue Do For You? (No link yet, just in conceptual stage)

Found this interesting podcast where Sam Carana, Guy McPherson, Jennifer Hynes, Peter Wadhams and Kevin Hester are interviewed: https://soundcloud.com/fasterthanexpected/sag-008-blue-ocean-event-10-27
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2335 on: June 26, 2017, 10:30:02 PM »
The latest 12Z run from ECMWF isn't what I call an improvement (maybe after D6, but that doesn't mean a thing). The forecast is now for the high pressure to come on stronger still over the Beaufort Sea, and from D3 onwards we'll have a dipole on our hands. Say hello, wave goodbye to the ice in the Beaufort Sea while it's still there. If this set-up remains dominant into July, this year is top 3 material. At the very least.
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oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2336 on: June 26, 2017, 10:40:39 PM »
Regarding "The People vs. Rubikscube", please calm down. Yes, facts are facts. But points of view differ. 2016 had 1 million km2 less extent than 2012 on June 1st, only to be bypassed in July. Very similar arguments were flying around last year too.
2017 started the melting season with a huge volume advantage. Since then it managed to shrink quite a bit. Looking at the Inner Basin / Arctic Ocean volume advantage, admittedly the one that really matters, that too has shrunk quite a lot in the first half of June, and not because there was less ice to melt but because the heat wasn't there as in 2012. So yes, melting has been relatively slow compared to the fastest years.
Does it mean the race is over? Not at all. 2017 still has the current situation in its pocket, 2012 has a monstrous upcoming melt season under its belt. 2017 could still set a record for volume, area and even extent. Or it could end up 2nd, 3rd or even less than that. No use fighting over it now, each can state his/her opinion but should not be offended by other valid points of view. And no, there are no deniers on this forum, thanks to the miracle-man Mr. N.
Take a look at the Inner Basin volume chart. The season is very long, it can't be over one way or the other yet.
Finally, remember - the words of people on this forum don't really change the September outcome. It only seems that way  ;)
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 10:46:10 PM by oren »

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2337 on: June 26, 2017, 11:15:18 PM »
Sea ice at both Kimmirut and Barrow moving in last 24 hours   .   .   .
At least in Kimmirut I guess it moved alright...

Comradez

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2338 on: June 26, 2017, 11:15:52 PM »
Now that it has been a week since my last Worldview Sea Ice Outlook for Summer 2017, I've done a Part 2 using the latest Worldview imagery and my subjective take on it:


In summary:  things have accelerated more than I expected, such that I now think 2017 will end up somewhere between 2012 and 2016. 

gregcharles

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2339 on: June 26, 2017, 11:57:27 PM »
Say hello, wave goodbye to the ice in the Beaufort Sea while it's still there.

I like that you don't sugar coat it, but soft cell it instead.

numerobis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2340 on: June 27, 2017, 12:23:50 AM »
Finally, remember - the words of people on this forum don't really change the September outcome. It only seems that way  ;)

Indeed, we're like the talking heads on election night discussing who will win what riding... after the votes have all been cast. Or like sports commentators.

There's still ice in the outlet of Frobisher Bay. The first shipment leaves Montreal towards Iqaluit about now, so there's two weeks left for the ice to melt for that shipment. My goods will be on the second shipment, for delivery at the end of August.

The sea is apparently mostly clear South of there. The ice service has in the past few days put out maps saying there will be no further maps for those regions, except for one chunk of ice off Labrador that it's still tracking.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2341 on: June 27, 2017, 02:08:11 AM »
Take a look at the Inner Basin volume chart. The season is very long, it can't be over one way or the other yet.
Finally, remember - the words of people on this forum don't really change the September outcome. It only seems that way  ;)

Great to see that graph. Thanks !
Volume at the lowest, and SSTAs all around mostly in the red (except where ice is leaving and melting out). I wouldn't think this can be seen as a good scenario at all? If the SSTAs don't revert soon, I would think it would be a faster melt coming this summer (with or without storms), impacting less ice-volume.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2017, 04:17:06 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2342 on: June 27, 2017, 02:20:25 AM »
Looks hot in the NW Passage now.
O-Bouy:

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2343 on: June 27, 2017, 02:32:41 AM »
...The thing is: the solstice comes at the same date always, give or take one day, so that delay means for sure more ice in September

Though I'd agree with everything else, I'd have to doubt this one point.  Insolation is only the most important fact until it suddenly doesn't matter much at all.  At some point the maritime climate takes control, and it is the storms and waves that count.

I'm not saying you are wrong about anything other than your assertion of "for sure."

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2344 on: June 27, 2017, 02:42:29 AM »
Finally, remember - the words of people on this forum don't really change the September outcome. It only seems that way  ;)

I had to laugh when I realized you may be wrong about this.  The actual raw data is pretty sparse, and I suspect that we do in fact influence at least some of the researchers.

Geoff

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2345 on: June 27, 2017, 02:51:54 AM »
That is some blue and melty ice  :o

Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2346 on: June 27, 2017, 02:54:55 AM »
Arctic sst's for years 2014-2017

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/
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cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2347 on: June 27, 2017, 06:18:41 AM »
Relative to the last 7 years, that is called a slow melt.

Just to play devil's advocate...

Ice thickness is not evenly distributed across the arctic.  Arguably the thinnest southern ice has been melting out just as rapidly this year as in any of the fast melt years.  The thickest northern ice is quite likely also melting out as rapidly this year as in any of the other fast melt years.  Previous years may have had a lot of thick ice that didn't melt by this time of year and this year may have had a medium amount of thick ice that also didn't melt by this time of year.  Thus allowing the volume of ice this year to catch up with the volume of ice in previous fast melt years.

A flat line at zero volume would get closer to the fast melt years as the summer progressed...

But I'm not  gonna pretend that I have any moralist qualms about falling into the bias trap.  ;D

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2348 on: June 27, 2017, 07:14:11 AM »
Looks hot in the NW Passage now.
O-Bouy:
Thanks for this TB. Seems like the O-buoy local vicinity is very representative of conditions in the NW passage as a a whole. The deep blue and big cracks in your image were not there a few days ago. CLICK to animate.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2349 on: June 27, 2017, 07:52:48 AM »
<snippage> If this set-up remains dominant into July, this year is top 3 material. At the very least.
Definitively not the weather we were hoping for, Neven.
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