The 2017 melting season

[Michael Hauber]

Any ideas about how the 2017 minimum will look like?

What are your guesses? Here i put my very simple idea about how the 2017 minimum might look like by the middle of September:

Similar shape to 2007.  More ice towards Atlantic and less ice towards Pacific.  The ice towards Siberia looks to be retreating well ahead of any other year, but still close to 2007.  Current patterns seem similar to what set up 2007, but maybe the cold part of the dipole stronger and the warm part weaker.

[nukefix]

I found this sea-ice portal by the Alfred Wegener Institute and University of Bremen...should be added to the resources I think:

http://www.meereisportal.de/en/

[Neven]

It's on the ASIG, and I blogged about the English version coming online last year.

[Sterks]

Tomorrow begins a warm weekend in the Beaufort sea, the CAA, and the Chukchi sea. Part of the Central Arctic Basin will be effected.
Attachments don't didn't work

[magnamentis]

considering the weather forecast and general conditions i'd say this could mean:

here we go

[Neven]

1024 hPa over the Beaufort as we speak.

[Neven]

And here's the final result of the single run vs ensemble run vs reality comparison I started last week. Instead of a cyclone at 979 hPa dominating the Arctic on D6 (single run), or 995 hPa according to the ensemble, it's the high pressure area of 1023 hPa over the Beaufort Sea that is stealing the show. Although, if you look carefully, you see that both runs had something similar in the works, more to the south.

Of course, this is just a snapshot, and other forecasts may prove more accurate, but it goes to show how things can quickly get iffy after D3-4, let alone D6-D10 (the forecast for which changes almost every run).

[F.Tnioli]

1024 hPa over the Beaufort as we speak.

Yep, Pacific side is taking the insolation head-on.

[seaicesailor]

The ACNFS drift forecast for today and following 6 days

[Shared Humanity]

Persistent high insolation on the Pacific side with ice drift towards the Atlantic side and out the Fram. Can't think of a worse set up.

[magnamentis]

Persistent high insolation on the Pacific side with ice drift towards the Atlantic side and out the Fram. Can't think of a worse set up.

absolutely, while at least the forecast predicts a wind pattern that would be agains too much fram export for the days to come, at least if that forecast will prove to be somehow accurate.

[F.Tnioli]

It seems significant melt is going on Atlantic side as we speak, too, with the region of particular interest being 65...110°E x 80...85°N. Much of that area is badly fractured, and most of it has only very thin "cloud" cover. I'm not sure that could be called clouds, even...

[Clenchie]

It seems significant melt is going on Atlantic side as we speak, too, with the region of particular interest being 65...110°E x 80...85°N. Much of that area is badly fractured, and most of it has only very thin "cloud" cover. I'm not sure that could be called clouds, even...

The ice packed above Severny island looks to be in sunshine too.

[Shared Humanity]

Most of that ice was spread out across the Kara but was pushed up against the island by the recent low pressure system.

The new Arctic, highly fractured and very mobile.

[Lord M Vader]

And soon the Northern Route might open up for sailing a boat through the route even if that boat can't sail right through but has to make a curvy one to get through

[Sterks]

And soon the Northern Route might open up for sailing a boat through the route even if that boat can't sail right through but has to make a curvy one to get through

You read my thoughts so to speak. The Hycom gif of seaciesailor indicates some clearing of obstacles furthermore from Beaufort sea to Laptev sea.

[Thomas Barlow]

Northern hemisphere sea-ice extent:
Apart from the strong anomaly melting of Spring 2016, the current trend has a normal curve, but low, near to 2012 now, and is headed close to early summer 2016 levels at best... which was not good at this time of year)
(Arctic Ocean volume is worse)

[bairgon]

The ice packed above Severny island looks to be in sunshine too.

Definitely getting warm up there. This is the fate of some fast ice on the mainland (opposite the ice packed on the island). It has separated and just about melted in 6 days.

[Clenchie]

The ice packed above Severny island looks to be in sunshine too.

Definitely getting warm up there. This is the fate of some fast ice on the mainland (opposite the ice packed on the island). It has separated and just about melted in 6 days.

Nice sequence Bairgs, but dreadful to see how fast those large floes dissolved.  Guess they were only thin ice.

[jai mitchell]

Chartic continues to track SIE almost identical to 2011 with amazingly high coincidence (for the past 30 days!) now also aligns well with 2012.  Obviously everything is going to depend on pre-melt in July and late season melt impacts. 

Strong positive PNA index for the next 10 days is also reinforced by ECMWF 850 mb temp anomalies.  These are pretty extreme and am not sure how valid they are but the forecast is only 10 days out.  If this holds, and we reach additional heat pulses in mid August we will easily surpass both SIE and PIOMAS volume records by Sept 21st.

[Thawing Thunder]

Chartic continues to track SIE almost identical to 2011 with amazingly high coincidence (for the past 30 days!) now also aligns well with 2012.  Obviously everything is going to depend on pre-melt in July and late season melt impacts.

With so much ice yet to go on the atlantic side (in other words, ice that's doomed to perish) and very weak one in Laptev and Beafort sea, I think we only need an average melt to keep 2017 on track. Remember the ice is much thinner than in 2011 and 2012.

[FishOutofWater]

Latest ECMWF has a dipole with low pressure over Siberia and high pressure over Canada for the next ten days solid. The wind pattern will continue to expand the open water over the Chukchi and Beaufort seas and will transport summer water through the Bering strait into the Arctic. The weather pattern looks like 2007, but there's almost no thick ice left this time around.

This is not a good forecast for ice preservation. The persistence of the dipole will make it more effective at transpolar transport. Note also that when the Barents sea has little Atlantic water flowing in the warm flow heads up the east side of the Fram strait. SST patterns show the warm water flow on the west coast of Svalbard.
 

[VeliAlbertKallio]

Heavily pulverised ice on the Kara Sea (note: large 3D-surface area).

It seems significant melt is going on Atlantic side.. Much of that area is badly fractured,

[VeliAlbertKallio]

Today's superb, revelatory image of the North Pole shows the Arctic Ocean in its full glory!   The high variability of the spatial viscosity and the ice floe sizes across a large tract of Central Arctic Basin. Channels of crushed sea ice are moving around by the ocean currents in CAB. Who can describe this ice as in a good condition? I suspect the streams of pulverized ice with the smallest ice floes melt first before the larger ice due to a larger 3D-surface, lower spatial viscosity, pounding of moving floes against each other, mixing and splashing of sea water, and the larger thermal inertia transfer as it moves easier over warmer sea water on its way to oblivion.   To fully appreciate this image you need to click it large, then again with magnification glass to see even more fine details to study the effect of ocean currents in ice.

[jai mitchell]

The dark shade in the above picture is caused by clouds.  here is the clear(er) sky image from a nearby location.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-06-27&z=3&v=-349527.46157887566,379544.64554861444,-144727.46157887566,480792.64554861444

[VeliAlbertKallio]

Correct, on the top left corner. (Interim grayscale color expresses semi-transparent clouds partially masking the ice. Without veiling clouds, the ocean appears black, sea ice entirely white. The gray is fairly easy to discern with a double-click on the largest magnification.)

The dark shade in the above picture is caused by clouds.  here is the clear(er) sky image from a nearby location.

[Hyperion]

Big Fat wad of warm moist air penetrating deep through the CAB towards CAA and Greenland from Bering Strait region over next day. 850hpa at 6.2C and 22 kg/m^2 TPW over pole region:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/06/30/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-305.21,92.05,850/loc=-147.303,83.711

[philiponfire]

MASIE has dropped by over 350,000 sq km from day 178 to 179 moving 2017 from behind 2012 to in front by almost 94,000 sq km. The game is on! 

[jai mitchell]

Big Fat wad of warm moist air penetrating deep through the CAB towards CAA and Greenland from Bering Strait region over next day. 850hpa at 6.2C and 22 kg/m^2 TPW over pole region:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/06/30/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-305.21,92.05,850/loc=-147.303,83.711

Wow! 3.1C surface temperatures 5 days out!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/07/04/0900Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-17.42,92.69,850/loc=-144.929,77.669

[Tigertown]

27th-29th in first gif CLICK IMAGE & Zoom
29th charts compared in second gif CLICK IMAGE & Zoom

[Tigertown]

One of the bright spots that we see on the chart is in the CAA. This was the mobile ice that got "pressed" into the channels as  the 2016 melting season was coming to a halt. Thickness charts usually show a goodly percentage of this ice as thicker than average. I am not so sure if it was ever really that thick in recent times. Who knows maybe it lost some of its thickness over the winter to sneaky bottom melt. Anyway, it's breaking up now and becoming obvious that at least part of the CAA is going to be open for business real soon. I am curious to see how this will effect the Arctic overall, depending of course, how early it does open up exactly.

[Fairbanksnchill]

The moist air is travelling right over Alaska now and phew it's warm. Climate Reanalyzer has the top half of the state in the high 70's to 80's Fahrenheit. It's currently 86 in Fairbanks.

[Lord M Vader]

Another 88K drop today. If we get a century break for June 30, we will likely end up below 9 Mn km² per June 30. Only 2010 and 2016 managed to do that. But July will determine the final outcome and the next forecast runs over the next week or so will be crucial in this process.

[Tigertown]

Another 88K drop today. If we get a century break for June 30, we will likely end up below 9 Mn km² per June 30. Only 2010 and 2016 managed to do that. But July will determine the final outcome and the next forecast runs over the next week or so will be crucial in this process.

I don't think this ice can handle July. The cliff is July, and July is the cliff. Take notes.

[bairgon]

Big Fat wad of warm moist air penetrating deep through the CAB towards CAA and Greenland from Bering Strait region over next day.

That is already having an effect. GIF below is west of Mackenzie Bay, northern Canada. I was struck by how quickly the floes are melting with the warm air coming through. According to Nullschool it will be continuing for a few days in this area.

[Lord M Vader]

GFS 00z op run is "ice friendly". But GFS op is as we all know not very reliable... The ensemble is more for HP-influence for quite a while. Waiting for ECMWF!!

[greatdying2]

Poof

[Bill Fothergill]

Another 88K drop today.

Actually closer to 92K, but what's 4K amongst friends?   

[RikW]

Seeing the state of the ice I wouldn't be surprised if the average daily drop will exceed 100k+ for july

[Hyperion]

Big Fat wad of warm moist air penetrating deep through the CAB towards CAA and Greenland from Bering Strait region over next day.

That is already having an effect. GIF below is northern Canada. I was struck by how quickly the floes are melting with the warm air coming through. According to Nullschool it will be continuing for a few days in this area.

My estimates are around a quarter of a million ton per second of water vapour entering the CAB at present.  From this event alone. Quite a  lot of enthalpy released from that as it condenses. Null say some places over the central CAB getting six millimeters of rain in three hours from this.

[Jim Hunt]

Thickness charts usually show a goodly percentage of this ice as thicker than average.

The low hanging fruit has fallen, but the rest may not be so easy. Compare "old ice" in the Parry Channel this year with last:

[magnamentis]

Big Fat wad of warm moist air penetrating deep through the CAB towards CAA and Greenland from Bering Strait region over next day.

That is already having an effect. GIF below is west of Mackenzie Bay, northern Canada. I was struck by how quickly the floes are melting with the warm air coming through. According to Nullschool it will be continuing for a few days in this area.

now we are facing what i, tiger and a few others were talking about all over the last 3-4 months. because the ice is so thin it will eventually melt out very fast where it too 2-3 months before and often never melted out at all and added to next season as MYI. since positive feedbacks have to be expected, i.e. albedo, wave action and increased wind speeds, this will, lack of extremely cold weather provided, precondition winter freeze and in the process next melting season.

note that there always remains the possibility of extremely ice-friendly weather patterns ahead, hence nothing is for sure but the long run i think we all agree where that will lead us.

[Shared Humanity]

Thickness charts usually show a goodly percentage of this ice as thicker than average.

The low hanging fruit has fallen, but the rest may not be so easy. Compare "old ice" in the Parry Channel this year with last:

Effects of the active Garlic Press from last years melt season.

[jai mitchell]

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v2.1.csv

NSIDC Daily Northern Hemisphere SIE Data

2017,    06,  22,     10.234,      Delta
2017,    06,  23,     10.124,      110,000
2017,    06,  24,     10.034,      90,000
2017,    06,  25,      9.941,      93,000
2017,    06,  26,      9.913,      28,000
2017,    06,  27,      9.764,     149,000
2017,    06,  28,      9.645,      119,000
2017,    06,  29,      9.531,      114,000

[Shared Humanity]

Big Fat wad of warm moist air penetrating deep through the CAB towards CAA and Greenland from Bering Strait region over next day. 850hpa at 6.2C and 22 kg/m^2 TPW over pole region:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/06/30/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-305.21,92.05,850/loc=-147.303,83.711

Wow! 3.1C surface temperatures 5 days out!



https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/07/04/0900Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-17.42,92.69,850/loc=-144.929,77.669

Looking at the wind patterns on that animation, is there a 2nd weak high over the Chukchi/Beaufort to go along with the high over the CAA? Has to be a lot of sunlight.

[seaicesailor]

I put together some Neven's SLP maps just to understand three different scenarios of weather for month of July ( 2014, 2012, and 2007)
The pressure pattern is not the whole story, but was hopeful of getting some clear picture of the differences.
Just for fun I add the latest EPS forecast averaged fron July 1 to 5, resembles to second week of July 2007

[Lord M Vader]

BIG pattern changes again folks!

Both the GFS and the ECMWF op runs depict a return to a cyclonic pattern again. And an intensive 977 hpa cyclone by D7... Well, the GFS ensemble hints the return to occur by D9 whic is far out in time. Let's wait for the ECMWF ensemble!

If this pattern change really unfolds, I'm pretty sure we'll dodge the bullet again this year. But the question is for how many more years we'll be able to dodge that bullet? It's unrealistic to believe that we'll have "good" ice years for another 10 years.

[Lord M Vader]

Just to say, the high Arctic (+80N) is unseasonable cold right now. FWI can judge by eyeballing DMIs graphs we need to go back to 2009 to find a cooler Arctic by this time at year.

[magnamentis]

Just to say, the high Arctic (+80N) is unseasonable cold right now. FWI can judge by eyeballing DMIs graphs we need to go back to 2009 to find a cooler Arctic by this time at year.

as mentioned earlier there is a discrepancy between various sourced like DMI, reanalyzer map etc.
and DMI is:

a) only on the optimistic (cold) side as compared to others

b) reports thick ice where satellites show open water

hence i don't trust DMI much and further they have horrible graphics which does not stand for
user friendly and sophisticated efforts, all a bit cheap LOL

i compare those different sources daily and even when DMI was way below average other sources were showing around average and above average temps 80N+

i do NOT know which are right, just adding this to round up the picture

[Thawing Thunder]

Is it possible that the big discrepancy between the eastern Arctic, especially Greenland, and the western Arctic, that means the Pacific side, plays a role in the low temperature average? The Pacific side definitely is not cold at all, while the Atlantic side rather destroys ice by export and storms and not so much by heat (but both sides seem to work hand in hand in a way ... ).