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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2550 on: July 04, 2017, 04:57:19 PM »
@ Thawing Thunder

Nice improvement. We need Ennio Morricone to write the music, though. The personification of momentum as a big bully, like the one it is. It has been building up slowly but steadily right under our noses. One example, a blob of warm water is building up next to FJL. Apparently, the ice is too thin and scattered, and allowing the sun's rays to pass through into the water below.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 05:05:19 PM by Tigertown »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2551 on: July 04, 2017, 05:06:02 PM »
So the sea ice is melting. Well, it is summer at the height of the melting season. Yes, average thickness of the ice is lower, but not by as much as it was last month. A record low volume is certainly on the cards. I am not convinced about extent, momentum or no momentum.  I cannot ignore what has happened in previous years. I hope the graph below is self-explanatory.

« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 05:11:43 PM by gerontocrat »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2552 on: July 04, 2017, 05:13:23 PM »
Yes you can!

:D

You just don't want to. But on some level, you (and we all) really should ignore previous years. The state of the ice this season is really very different from anything ever happened before. I think i have just one word which describes this melt season best:

The "soup" season.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2553 on: July 04, 2017, 05:17:33 PM »
So the sea ice is melting. Well, it is summer at the height of the melting season. Yes, average thickness of the ice is lower, but not by as much as it was last month. A record low volume is certainly on the cards. I am not convinced about extent, momentum or no momentum.  I cannot ignore what has happened in previous years. I hope the graph below is self-explanatory.

values of extent, area and volume at times are hugely apart (big gaps) while at this time of the year they're mostly very close together for a while. in other words, the fact that values are closer to other years means exactly nothing when it comes to an outlook for the rest/end of the season.

since volume is basically extent X thickness and/or value X thickness it's very logically that fragmented and somehow dispersed ice = higher extent = misleading is producing a relatively close to normal volume number.

you will see later on that the very same factors, dispersion as well as fragmentation will help to open the gap again, appropriate weather provided. there is always a possibility for extremely ice-friendly weather but more sooner than later even that will not help much anymore because the heat is in teh system/water and ice will eventually melt out even during cold summers.

not sayin' it will be that way this year, perhaps only regionally but it will happen.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2554 on: July 04, 2017, 05:20:06 PM »
Yes you can!

:D

You just don't want to. But on some level, you (and we all) really should ignore previous years. The state of the ice this season is really very different from anything ever happened before. I think i have just one word which describes this melt season best:

The "soup" season.

+1 short and spot on (kurz und knackig) LOL

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2555 on: July 04, 2017, 05:57:57 PM »
SST anomaly on July 1st, 2012 vs 2017:

The Pacific side is worse this year which is maybe more important than the the big lead in anomalies in Kara sea in 2012.
I wonder if a 'hot' Bering Sea is worse for ASI than a 'hot' Beaufort Sea.  I suspect 'what heats the Beaufort stays in the Beaufort' but the equivalent is not true for the Bering.

...
If an average year used to be able to remove swathes of 2m FYI then what of an 'average year and 1.5m ice?
...
I suspect that melting 2m over an Arctic Sea shelf is more likely to happen than melting 1.5m over the >80N abyssal plain (due to when melt starts, its relation to peak insolation, cold water depth, etc.) 

Are there delta maps showing how much ice melted (or moved away) between the end-of-April (or May) time period and area, extent or volume minimum?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2556 on: July 04, 2017, 06:03:03 PM »
The first animation simply flips back and forth between 10 July 2012 and 10 July 2017. As discussed earlier, the differences are not plausibly attributable to hycom thickness inaccuracy, model versioning or color palette transitions.

The second shows the extensive thickness loss over the last month. The whole Siberian quadrant will be slush in a few weeks. (Extensive regions of the Arctic Ocean have been seasonally ice free for years; the low albedo season overlaps poorly with insolation season but well with wind layer-mixing months.)

The third tracks the 'shark fin' feature from late Sept 2016 to 10 July 17 in weekly increments. Hycom tracks ice features accurately regardless of how it is doing on actual thickness. While the shark is not literally pushing the ice ahead of it to its doom in the Barents, it does help corral that ice and so visualize the export process.

It is quite feasible to add tracks for other visually persistent features. Indeed it almost seems possible to grasp the overall plastic deformation of the ice pack over the last nine months despite its rapid shape-shifting. (This would not differ much from Tschudi's sea ice age .mov from 1990 - Nov 2016 which is based on brine loss effects on satellite radar returns. Note the disadvantage of  complex movie formats in terms of simple frame updates of gif89.)
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 06:47:48 PM by A-Team »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2557 on: July 04, 2017, 07:26:37 PM »
Yes you can!

:D

You just don't want to. But on some level, you (and we all) really should ignore previous years. The state of the ice this season is really very different from anything ever happened before. I think i have just one word which describes this melt season best:

The "soup" season.

+1 short and spot on (kurz und knackig) LOL
Want? Don't want? On a hot day a child may want an ice cream. But what the child needs is a glass of water. I am not convinced because as yet the data on previous years and tthe current year to date is insufficiently convincing. But "Thunderbirds are go! Anything can happen in the next half hour !".  (Google for attribution).
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2558 on: July 04, 2017, 07:33:18 PM »
The "soup" season.

It has been an ocean climate since December 21, 2015.  Let's just wait until Summer is over and see what the ice does then.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2559 on: July 04, 2017, 07:34:21 PM »
... Extensive regions of the Arctic Ocean have been seasonally ice free for years; the low albedo season overlaps poorly with insolation season ...
I fear for what will happen when the planet fails to dodge that particular bullet, as I suspect it will be another irreversible* tipping point.
(* At least in terms of timescales comparable to civilisation as we know it.)

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2560 on: July 04, 2017, 07:40:39 PM »
... Extensive regions of the Arctic Ocean have been seasonally ice free for years; the low albedo season overlaps poorly with insolation season ...
I fear for what will happen when the planet fails to dodge that particular bullet, as I suspect it will be another irreversible* tipping point.
(* At least in terms of timescales comparable to civilisation as we know it.)

The planet will continue to orbit the Sun, as always.

<Bill isn't referring to what will happen to the planet; N.>
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 09:49:31 PM by Neven »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2561 on: July 04, 2017, 08:36:07 PM »
Dear Bill, I believe that point will come after the next big El Niño. Which I think might develop next year... That will ramp up the temps during fall and winter even more.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2562 on: July 04, 2017, 08:41:01 PM »
The first animation simply flips back and forth between 10 July 2012 and 10 July 2017. As discussed earlier, the differences are not plausibly attributable to hycom thickness inaccuracy, model versioning or color palette transitions.

The second shows the extensive thickness loss over the last month. The whole Siberian quadrant will be slush in a few weeks. (Extensive regions of the Arctic Ocean have been seasonally ice free for years; the low albedo season overlaps poorly with insolation season but well with wind layer-mixing months.)

The third tracks the 'shark fin' feature from late Sept 2016 to 10 July 17 in weekly increments. Hycom tracks ice features accurately regardless of how it is doing on actual thickness. While the shark is not literally pushing the ice ahead of it to its doom in the Barents, it does help corral that ice and so visualize the export process.

It is quite feasible to add tracks for other visually persistent features. Indeed it almost seems possible to grasp the overall plastic deformation of the ice pack over the last nine months despite its rapid shape-shifting. (This would not differ much from Tschudi's sea ice age .mov from 1990 - Nov 2016 which is based on brine loss effects on satellite radar returns. Note the disadvantage of  complex movie formats in terms of simple frame updates of gif89.)

the first image that illustrates what i believe how things really are leaves the question how piomas volume can be so close to 2012? the visual clearly shows the huge difference in ice thickness an there is no significant difference in extent that would explain why the real difference in volume is not much bigger than the models show. i think that we shall see the effect of the factual later this season while the steady decline on reasonable levels are probably already part of it.

emphasizing "steady" because the decline in extent is quite free of major upticks, almost a kind of straight line.

werther

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2563 on: July 04, 2017, 09:36:00 PM »
Nice illustration, A-team!

Each melt season sets a different and unique stage. Of course there's a lot of dispersed ice in the Northern Atlantic periphery. Daily composites shows a weak,  but constant dipole for all May and June. Consequently, winds were mainly North over the Atlantic sector. It kept extent and modelled volume on the high side. Lots of snow has the numbers biassed and temps on the low side.

So what now?

There may be a prolonged reel down. Without sensational days, but relentless. Or, when the new properties of this Arctic are exposed to some mean conditions, an event. When the final result will be clear by the end of September, I'm quite confident that it will reflect uncharted territory. In retrospection, it will be regarded as a 'black swan'-event. With a lot more impact weatherwise than the 2007 eye-opener.

For who will notice.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2564 on: July 04, 2017, 11:30:32 PM »
The weather in the Arctic changes, dominated in the next five days by cyclones on the CAB. I just cropped a map of ensemble ECMWF SLP, averaged for the next five days. Resembles now the pattern around the 3rd week of July 2012, which not surprisingly came with just around average decline of extent.
ACNFS forecasts dispersion of the ice pack toward open water areas of the Pacific side especially Beaufort sea.
Not all good news for the ice since it will be meeting the heat accumulated in these waters during the last month of sun and lately warm air.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2565 on: July 04, 2017, 11:36:21 PM »
Nice SST animation, sis!

Quote
The weather in the Arctic changes, dominated in the next five days by cyclones on the CAB.

But with high pressures popping up behind the cyclones on the Siberian side of the Arctic, which will effectively take care of that ice that has remained stuck to Novaya Zemlya for a surprisingly long time. I hadn't even noticed SSTs suddenly shooting up there. Not good news either for the hole in the ESS and the Laptev Bite.

If the forecasts after D4-D5 then come about with a renewed bout of high pressure on the American/Pacific side of the Arctic, we have a nice game of ping pong going on, which may actually be the most detrimental combo for the ice, especially if we get a big cyclone in August. High pressure for insolation, low pressure to prevent compaction. Back and forth. Ping pong.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2566 on: July 04, 2017, 11:47:15 PM »
Neven,
Quote
But with high pressures popping up behind the cyclones on the Siberian side of the Arctic, which will effectively take care of that ice that has remained stuck to Novaya Zemlya for a surprisingly long time.

Added to that, warm land air at surface level will attack the ice there as of late tomorrow. It will reach 3oC a good ways offshore. Perhaps it is the pressure setup that causes this; not sure, but it will last for days.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2567 on: July 05, 2017, 01:48:16 AM »
By popular request, the animation shows three more features tracked from the end of the 2016 melt season up to July 10th of this year. Some of them don't recognizably kick in until later in in the fall. The last frame shows initial and final positions (or the full track for point features).

Overall the fluidity is like 'someone' was swirling different colors of paint on a turntable in a freezer that got moved later to the greenhouse. It's very hard to discern the patterns of movement shown in older textbooks (pre-2010?) such as ice caught up for multiple years in a full Beaufort gyre, or transported linearly eurasia-ward by a Transpolar drift. (Note currents per se are not shown but rather currents + wind-induced motion.)

Shear happens: when one feature hardly moves (eg by Wrangel) and an adjacent block has a sweeping trajectory. However it is happening in relatively slow motion and the ice itself often has floe vacancies, so shear lines are not necessarily seen.

There'll be a lot of turnover before the season has finished. This is part of the reset mechanism that Oren mentioned up-forum by which piomas, hycom and others get a clean slate each fall to paint a known ice edge, large areas of open water and FYI with basic thermo, as otherwise persisting mistakes are melted and exported away.

[The animation should be animating but wasn't, even though it fell well within the 700x700 pixel and file size limits. The cure, as it often is, is to crop size down very slightly and save again.]
« Last Edit: July 05, 2017, 04:14:26 AM by A-Team »

anotheramethyst

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2568 on: July 05, 2017, 02:47:14 AM »
Wow, Ateam, thank you for those!!  You can really see where the strongest ice is in the arctic, and I especially appreciate being able to see how some of the features of the thicker ice formed.  Piomas really looks ominously thin.  I wonder if that will actually help lower albedo by keeping the ice more dispersed.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2569 on: July 05, 2017, 02:51:03 AM »
By popular request, the animation shows three more features tracked from the end of the 2016 melt season up to July 10th of this year. Some of them don't recognizably kick in until later in in the fall. The last frame shows initial and final positions (or the full track for point features).

Overall the fluidity is like 'someone' was swirling different colors of paint on a turntable in a freezer that got moved later to the greenhouse. It's very hard to discern the patterns of movement shown in older textbooks (pre-2010?) such as ice caught up for multiple years in a full Beaufort gyre, or transported linearly eurasia-ward by a Transpolar drift. (Note currents per se are not shown but rather currents + wind-induced motion.)

There'll be a lot of turnover before the season has finished. This is part of the reset mechanism that Oren mentioned up-forum by which piomas, hycom and others get a clean slate each fall to paint a known ice edge, large areas of open water and FYI with basic thermo, as otherwise persisting mistakes are melted and exported away.

[The animation should be animating but wasn't, even though it fell well within the 700x700 pixel and file size limits. The cure, as it often is, is to crop size down very slightly and save again.]

Thanks for these instructive anims.

Another interesting feature is the loop of thick ice that tracks from northwest of Ellesmore Is;and and out the Fram exit. The remaining thick ice has been squeezed in as primer for the garlic press once the NWP melts out

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2570 on: July 05, 2017, 03:33:10 AM »
The first animation simply flips back and forth between 10 July 2012 and 10 July 2017. As discussed earlier, the differences are not plausibly attributable to hycom thickness inaccuracy, model versioning or color palette transitions.

ummmm

PIOMAS says the June Avg differential between 2017 and 2012 is only about -750 km^3

This Hycom gridded data looks closer to several thousand km^3 LESS. . .

what gives?
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Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2571 on: July 05, 2017, 03:36:55 AM »
Sea Surface Temperatures anomalies 2016 vs 2017.

From: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2572 on: July 05, 2017, 04:24:42 AM »
The sst anomalies should get a penalty called for encroachment.
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oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2573 on: July 05, 2017, 04:48:08 AM »
Wow, Ateam, thank you for those!!  You can really see where the strongest ice is in the arctic, and I especially appreciate being able to see how some of the features of the thicker ice formed.
+1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2574 on: July 05, 2017, 06:00:03 AM »
There is a noteworthy weather pattern heading into the arctic through the Bering straight for the next 48 hrs. Nullschool has 31 kg/m² total precipitable water over temperate waters of 44F (6.7C). Climate Reanalyzer is showing an unusually high level of forecast Precipitation / Cloud Cover .

The heat of fusion requires 333.55 j/g of energy to melt ice. However,  liquid water needs 418 j/g to heat from 0c to 100c and another 2257 j/g to vaporize (evaporate). Does the physics of this phenomenon mean 8 kg of ice melt for every kg of water vapor that travels from the equator to the arctic?

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2575 on: July 05, 2017, 07:04:25 AM »
A composite of the ascending and descending satellite images from JAXA.
What is going on???  My take; Raining through warm air that spans from the surface up to 850 mb or higher. It may only do so in a small area each day, but it moves around. When it quits raining over any given area, the damage is done, and the candle is lit. Melt ponds plus insolation takes over.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2017, 07:17:15 AM by Tigertown »
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2576 on: July 05, 2017, 08:17:25 AM »
.....
The heat of fusion requires 333.55 j/g of energy to melt ice. However,  liquid water needs 418 j/g to heat from 0c to 100c and another 2257 j/g to vaporize (evaporate). Does the physics of this phenomenon mean 8 kg of ice melt for every kg of water vapor that travels from the equator to the arctic?
this water has not warmed to 100oC to vaporize and won't have that temperature when it reaches the arctic , so you just transfer the heat of vaporization. Since that is so large your example only has to be reduced from a factor of 8 to a factor of 7. Whether all that heat is available for ice melt is another question, some is probably warming air higher in the atmosphere and increasing radiation into space.

stjuuv

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2577 on: July 05, 2017, 01:33:32 PM »
.....
The heat of fusion requires 333.55 j/g of energy to melt ice. However,  liquid water needs 418 j/g to heat from 0c to 100c and another 2257 j/g to vaporize (evaporate). Does the physics of this phenomenon mean 8 kg of ice melt for every kg of water vapor that travels from the equator to the arctic?
this water has not warmed to 100oC to vaporize and won't have that temperature when it reaches the arctic , so you just transfer the heat of vaporization. Since that is so large your example only has to be reduced from a factor of 8 to a factor of 7. Whether all that heat is available for ice melt is another question, some is probably warming air higher in the atmosphere and increasing radiation into space.
So according to this (assuming all the heat of condensation is transferred to ice), the maximum this humid air could melt would be 31 kg/m² * 7 = 217 kg/m² = 237 L/m² = about 24 cm of solid ice over the area of this air mass?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2578 on: July 05, 2017, 01:56:34 PM »
Nice SST animation, sis!
   ....
Those warm spots sometimes fade after a few days, but this time it looks like they will persist for another week or longer.  Because of positioning of lows in the northern Pacific, moderate heat advection through Bering Strait will continue for several more days, then resume about a week out if the forecast verifies.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2579 on: July 05, 2017, 03:17:47 PM »
Did I read on this thread some time ago about the absence of the Polar Jet Stream this summer?
Anyway, I've been looking on cci-reanalyzer and it is there - admittedly more like a piper comanche than a concorde, and sort of around 50 degrees latitude. Although weak, is it sufficient to reduce the flow of warm air into the high Arctic in stark contrast to last winter ? (In the UK there has been a significant temperature variation between south and north of about 51-52 degrees N).
 
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A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2580 on: July 05, 2017, 04:39:51 PM »
Quote
my take: raining through warm air. It may only do so in a small area each day, but it moves around. When it quits raining over any given area, the damage is done, melt ponds plus insolation take over.
Interesting proposal. There has definitely been pronounced blueing in the Beaufort just in the last few days. To quantitate visual blue and its daily progression (requires clear days), the rgb was split into r, g, b channels and the b histogram taken.

The image Ttown uses above is a hybrid of a sea ice concentration layer with the 0-20% melt cut out, exposing only there the thickness layer underneath, the idea being thickness algorithms are relatively weaker on thin dispersed ice.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2017, 11:10:21 PM by A-Team »

Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2581 on: July 05, 2017, 06:18:29 PM »
I don't like to say it but judging by the satellite pictures a lot of peripheral ice is disappearing very quickly!

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2582 on: July 05, 2017, 08:41:04 PM »
lots of clouds and snowfall in the CAB in the next 5-day forecast.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2583 on: July 05, 2017, 09:52:02 PM »
The Slater Projected Probabilistic Sea Ice Extent is predicting a clearing of the thickest Ice on the Greenland north coast.  I think this is actually some sort of weather related artifact tricking the algorithm.  But the channel that has been predicted over the past few days through the Beaufort out to the Fram is quite dramatic.  The shattering of the Alaskan lobe of the Ice Butterfly would take ones breath away.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2584 on: July 05, 2017, 10:12:08 PM »
Should I be worried?
Am I right in saying that for the day, July 4th was within one day's melt (more than 100 thousand  square KMs a day right now) for Day 185, of overtaking 2012 to be the lowest on record for this time of year?

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/\\ (July

Day 185 - July 3rd and 4th of the respective years
« Last Edit: July 05, 2017, 10:17:47 PM by Thomas Barlow »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2585 on: July 05, 2017, 10:23:57 PM »
Should I be worried?
Am I right in saying that for the day, July 4th was within one day's melt (more than 100 thousand  square KMs a day right now) for Day 185, of overtaking 2012 to be the lowest on record for this time of year?

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/\\ (July

Day 185 - July 3rd and 4th of the respective years

that's even an average, i think a 5 days running mean but not 100% sure while the real daily value is lower than 2012 already, albeit by only a fraction, see here:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

or this from another source

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg119647.html#msg119647

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2586 on: July 05, 2017, 10:42:08 PM »
Yes, the NSIDC chart does a 5 day running average, as has pointed out on occasion.

The Actual daily values for 2017 NSIDC SIE are;                   2012 values.   July 3rd is day 185
x 106 km2

                                                                                   
2017,    07,  01,      9.244                                                   2012,    06,  30,      9.335
2017,    07,  02,      9.154                                                   2012,    07,  01,      9.062
2017,    07,  03,      9.087                                                   2012,    07,  02,      8.971
2017,    07,  04,      8.963                                                   2012,    07,  03,      8.954
« Last Edit: July 05, 2017, 10:48:01 PM by Tigertown »
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2587 on: July 05, 2017, 11:07:09 PM »
In the diagram the Alaskan lobe has meltwater sitting on thick unbrokened ice (see my Image of the Day), whereas the tiny snaking red colour on the Atlantic side is more significant in that it is by open water between ice floes. You may marvel this wonder using today's NASA Worldview. Thus I would downplay the red butterfly lobe on CAB towards Alaska for the moment, and pay attention to the less visible red snake round the North Pole on its Atlantic-Russian side which is open water.
... The shattering of the Alaskan lobe of the Ice Butterfly would take ones breath away.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2588 on: July 05, 2017, 11:42:12 PM »
Better get out there and Wrangel up that sea ice before it melts.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2589 on: July 05, 2017, 11:42:48 PM »
So Veli. Would you expect an especially large giant beaver assault caused by the large and late snow melt? How long should it take them to swim from the river deltas to beneath the pole?
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2590 on: July 05, 2017, 11:57:32 PM »
Quote
So according to this (assuming all the heat of condensation is transferred to ice), the maximum this humid air could melt would be 31 kg/m² * 7 = 217 kg/m² = 237 L/m² = about 24 cm of solid ice over the area of this air mass?

You could be understating things. If you estimate the flux by looking at the metres per second of airflow bringing the moisture in then you really get the picture on how much tonnage is actually involved. And though don of the fusion energy is lost to space, the trapping and reradiation of longwave from below is probably larger an effect. Especially with the heat transfer polewise from steaming swamps and high ssts.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2591 on: July 06, 2017, 01:31:31 AM »
Yes, the NSIDC chart does a 5 day running average, as has pointed out on occasion.

The Actual daily values for 2017 NSIDC SIE are;                   2012 values.   July 3rd is day 185
x 106 km2

                                                                                   
2017,    07,  01,      9.244                                                   2012,    06,  30,      9.335
2017,    07,  02,      9.154                                                   2012,    07,  01,      9.062
2017,    07,  03,      9.087                                                   2012,    07,  02,      8.971
2017,    07,  04,      8.963                                                   2012,    07,  03,      8.954

Wasn't 2010 was the lowest for this date?

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2592 on: July 06, 2017, 01:43:13 AM »
Yes, the NSIDC chart does a 5 day running average, as has pointed out on occasion.

The Actual daily values for 2017 NSIDC SIE are;                   2012 values.   July 3rd is day 185
x 106 km2

                                                                                   
2017,    07,  01,      9.244                                                   2012,    06,  30,      9.335
2017,    07,  02,      9.154                                                   2012,    07,  01,      9.062
2017,    07,  03,      9.087                                                   2012,    07,  02,      8.971
2017,    07,  04,      8.963                                                   2012,    07,  03,      8.954

Wasn't 2010 was the lowest for this date?
Ah yes, thanks. Forgot to check that. Not for long though maybe?

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2593 on: July 06, 2017, 02:36:07 AM »
RoxTheGeologist,
Quote
Wasn't 2010 was the lowest for this date?

I don't doubt that at all, but I, and apparently a few more others, are just particularly interested in how this year is running so close to 2012 in so many ways. Especially, because of how 2012 finished up.  :)
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2594 on: July 06, 2017, 03:03:57 AM »
So far I haven't seen a beaver, but someone else saw a shark swimming out of the Fram...  ::)
So Veli. Would you expect an especially large giant beaver assault caused by the large and late snow melt? How long should it take them to swim from the river deltas to beneath the pole?
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2595 on: July 06, 2017, 06:04:01 AM »
Barrow ice cam has updated. 56F and it is apparently time to go hunt seals or maybe bowheads. Lots of activity with boats and people launching boats on the beach.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2596 on: July 06, 2017, 08:09:42 AM »
Arbitrary date of Sept. 8th for 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2016. I don't of a point that I am trying to make with this, other than to give some of us an idea of what September sea ice looked like over the years. Many of us were involved in other pursuits at the time. 2002 is on here mainly as a benchmark to compare to. CLICK IMAGE TO ENGAGE ACTION
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2597 on: July 06, 2017, 08:41:47 AM »
that's even an average, i think a 5 days running mean but not 100% sure while the real daily value
...

One of the reasons for using a 5 day running mean might be to help remove artifacts in the daily *measured* values in order to be more faithful to the real values.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2598 on: July 06, 2017, 09:17:29 AM »
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/07/06/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-168.42,83.26,383/loc=-166.379,68.509

Shows that warm moist intrusion thru bering is coming in at about 100 kmh at 1.5km up. Quite a flux.
Comparing same day a year ago there was a lot less moisture mixing into the basin
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/07/06/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-168.42,83.26,383/loc=-168.420,81.988
Sorry no screenshots. This phone is limited.
Tempwise. The 850 hpa warm intrusions are penetrating deep into the CAB. Whereas last year just skirting the coast.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2599 on: July 06, 2017, 09:50:44 AM »
Interestingly at 1000hpa only a small area at the centre of the big cyclone over the whole ocean was a bit over zero C. Maxing at 1.4 :
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/07/06/0900Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-166.54,91.88,383/loc=169.850,84.763

Whereas this year the pacific half of the basin is almost all above zero. Mostly 2-4C at this just above surface altitude:
 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/07/06/0900Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-167.95,90.62,383/loc=-163.070,80.282
I think the bering steamhose is raining out heavily and drawing down the condensation energy with the rainfall to sprawl out over the whole pacific quadrant. Intrigued i is also by the big 850hpa cold air rivers being expelled over Siberia.
I think this comparison shows well that collapsed jets and lots of small mixing weather systems can be mor toxic for ice survival than big GAC scenarios.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party