I believe we are going to see some big changes in PIOMAS from 7/15-8/15 that put 2017 far and ahead of all other years in terms of melt.
Comparing the charts between this time last year and today, 2017 has a substantially larger portion of its remaining area/extent that is far thinner than 2016, especially north of 80 degrees.
The main differences between last year and this year so far have been substantially less ice on the Russian/main Pacific front in 2017, slightly more in Beaufort, and substantially more on the Atlantic.
The Atlantic ice is going to melt out hook or crook and the forecasts from HYCOM et al over the next week+ show this is only going to accelerate. In fact, 2017 is going to begin closing rapidly on 2016 in terms of Atlantic area/extent.
As the Pacific/Russian fronts continue falling towards the CAB at an alarming rate (worse than any year before), this is going to setup a continued area/extent/volume cliff that persists through August and well into September, a la 2012 but likely worse.
The interesting point to consider is whether PIOMAS is overestimating current volume along the Atlantic, and what happens when the ice that it thinks is there melts out completely (as is likely to happen by 9/15 in totality, but by 8/15 in earnest). The ice there is certainly present, but is it actually all that anomalously large in thickness? We will soon find out.
If this all melts out as history would indicate it will, the "false" positive perceived by PIOMAS will result in a relative anomalous drop compared to 2012, as that is the only region holding 2017's #s out of the gutter they had previously been relegated within. Accounting for this, an area/extent record also seems much more plausible when you consider that the current state of 2017 vs. 2012 may be overestimated in 2012's favor.
With AMSR2 probably set to drop below 5M KM2 within the next two days, we could easily drop below 2M KM2 by 9/1, setting the stage for a minimum somewhere between 1.5-1.8KM2 (IMO).