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NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3100 on: July 24, 2017, 09:44:15 AM »
Thanks Rob,  I noticed 2007 was a very big deviation, it's variance from 2006 was very large.  2012 was not so much of a deviation and it's variance from 2011 was only really about half as much.

I was wondering whether the loss of ice volume would lead to each new record low being a smaller deviation than the last, until we suddenly reach blue ocean.

Which would increase the accuracy of modelling until it just suddenly went away.  It does make 2007 look much more like a step change, rather than just a record low, though.
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oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3101 on: July 24, 2017, 09:58:01 AM »
It's finally possible to compare Uni Bremen concentration maps from 2012 to 2017, as July 23rd is the first date for which a map is available.
This is very confusing, as the years are similar in both extent and volume, but the ice distribution and shape look nothing alike. There are vast differences almost everywhere (except for the inner CAB).
Eyeballing, it seems that 2012 ice was much more vulnerable and dispersed, but OTOH looking at the concentrations it doesn't seem like both years have the same volume (admittedly it's guessing 3D from 2D, but still it feels like something doesn't fit).
Does anyone know whether the maps are directly comparable from then til now? I recall reading here that the color code may have changed?
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3102 on: July 24, 2017, 10:26:17 AM »
Oren, the problem is that, no matter how scientifically correct comparisons you and others post, a gallery here will keep thinking the ice pack is this year of "a different quality", meaning made of thin smoking paper instead of H2O, as usual.
Still we are going to see a lot of progress in the Pacific side because there is a lot of heat in the water and it is FYI.

Now I go "out on a limb" (is that correct) and say that regardless the minimum, this year won't have the extraordinary refreezr of last year (probably not even melt), simply because last year heat in the NH was out of charts, this year isn't. The refreeze season I think will be pretty ordinary overall, perhaps late in the pacific side but nothing like last two years. Why? Because it is the weather and chances are in favor of nothing special, it is irrational to think of a repeat just "because", it is not irrational to think of a rebound however, based on experience (yes yes there is a past tipping point, an atmospheric cell has collapsed, the ice is made of paper and blah blah)

Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3103 on: July 24, 2017, 10:28:23 AM »
Uni Bremen currently shows huge areas of FYI as 100% concentrated (ice packs that initially formed in Laptev, ESS and Chuckchi). Just a week ago it showed 100% concentratin in the part of Kara, but this ice have almost disappeared.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3104 on: July 24, 2017, 12:13:47 PM »
Yeah TT that gives a much more approachable view of what we have overall. What pixel size on worldview did you start with? 1km? 5km? Or have you smaller blocks with the full 250m available resolution?
We could start a thread where volunteers  team up with territories assigned, archive frames, and just clip the visible areas out for each tile . Then layer those. and perhaps cheat a little with a bit of clone brushing to fill in the holes.
Its pretty easy with the Lassoo tool and control and shift keys on my oldschool paintshop pro4 to do that. Dunno about others apps.

tried a few of psp tools on it. Only thing I could do that might have brought out a little detail thru the clouds was max the colour saturation and a slight contrast boost.

I started with the images you obtain with the camera function on the world view site, 9328 x 6032 pixels. I tried to upload the result, but it was too big. I did not apply any lasso or stamp or whatsoever. The clouds you can see simply were in those places for a week (But I cleaned up the open water with a brush). One week anyway results in a lot of distortion because of the movement and melt of the ice, though in the central area of the pack it was not so much. If anybody wants to see the full resolution image, I uploaded it to flickr:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/153006036@N06/35995358361/in/dateposted-public/

With regard to your suggestion to organize this task in a group – that would require a lot of organization and discipline, maybe too much. Single persons like Wipneus maintain their very much appreciated rhythm here of daily contributions. But a group of people? And it's not easily done. That image took me hours and even with some routine it will require a lot of time. Please understand me, I'm sceptic but not against your idea.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3105 on: July 24, 2017, 12:46:18 PM »
This summer the motion of the pack has been mostly cyclonic. There has been negative export from the Fram for over a month. The storms and clouds have kept temperatures in the central Arctic quite cool. U. Bremen may have made some changes to the image processing but other measures show that this summer's ice pack is concentrated, not dispersed. Summer 2012 was warmer and sunnier in the Arctic than this summer. Even if we did get something like the GAC of 2012, it would not have the same effect. The minimum of 2012 is not going to be broken this year. The lack of export combined with much cloudier weather than 2012 has made up for the very low thickness at the beginning of this year's melt season.

The persistently positive AO tells the story. It's good news for the ice this summer.

Now for the bad news. The oceans of the northern hemisphere are very warm and heat has built up in the subtropics. Ocean heat is flowing into the Arctic from the north Atlantic at an accelerated rate. That heat will lurk below the surface in coming years effecting future melt seasons if the AO continues to be positive. Warming of the Atlantic layer at 300m to 600m depth in the Arctic will affect the ice for years to come.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3106 on: July 24, 2017, 01:19:29 PM »
@seaicesailor
I was going to reply like this: I respectfully disagree about the winter. The heat is in the water and during the freezing season, it will show the most.

Then I noticed that  FishOutofWater went into detail about the heated oceans,
Quote
Now for the bad news. The oceans of the northern hemisphere are very warm and heat has built up in the subtropics. Ocean heat is flowing into the Arctic from the north Atlantic at an accelerated rate. That heat will lurk below the surface in coming years effecting future melt seasons if the AO continues to be positive. Warming of the Atlantic layer at 300m to 600m depth in the Arctic will affect the ice for years to come.


Like I said, I think we have a problem already this winter, not just later down the road.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 01:29:09 PM by Tigertown »

Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3107 on: July 24, 2017, 01:24:02 PM »
Fram strait is not the only way to export ice. Currently Laptev and Beaufort import ice from CAB - and this one of the reason of slow SIE decline last two days. Meanwhile Pacific side is even more impressive in SSTa. ESS, Chuckchi, Bering and SoO will struglle to refreeze this fall\winter. There's too much of energy accumulated around CAB

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3108 on: July 24, 2017, 01:35:24 PM »
Hi,

Just curious, I've been lurking for a while,  and while I see a lot of pics posted, I don't see a lot posted pulling from the sentinel satilte missions, is there a reason why? ( Or is it and I'm just not realizing it)

In the same vein the sentinel 3 sat data is available now, and when I played around with it in the sentinel toolbox it looks like you could use it to really clean up the swaths and get some very clear images of the ice. I was.mostly just fooling around, but it looked like you could run algoriths against pixels based on the cloud masks. You can also use it to process the sentinel 1 and 2 data the same way. Might be easier than Photoshop. Apologies if this belongs in stupid questions  :)


Liam

Where do you access these? What sites? Links?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3109 on: July 24, 2017, 01:44:48 PM »
I don't see a lot posted pulling from the sentinel satilte missions, is there a reason why? ( Or is it and I'm just not realizing it)

If you search the forum for the word "Sentinel" you will discover numerous images in the area specific threads. By way of one recent example:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,400.msg120973.html#msg120973

Where do you access these? What sites? Links?

How about these for starters?

http://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/

http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php

https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3110 on: July 24, 2017, 02:09:35 PM »
I bit the bullet, stacked one week of images from the eastern Arctic and removed the clouds manually (took hours).

Over the years A-Team has provided a number of helpful hints concerning how to automate "seeing through the clouds". How about this one for example?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,53.msg118915.html#msg118915
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3111 on: July 24, 2017, 02:16:07 PM »
Thank you Jim, I'll give it a try!
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3112 on: July 24, 2017, 02:32:17 PM »
Hi,

Just curious, I've been lurking for a while,  and while I see a lot of pics posted, I don't see a lot posted pulling from the sentinel satilte missions, is there a reason why? ( Or is it and I'm just not realizing it)

In the same vein the sentinel 3 sat data is available now, and when I played around with it in the sentinel toolbox it looks like you could use it to really clean up the swaths and get some very clear images of the ice. I was.mostly just fooling around, but it looked like you could run algorithms against pixels based on the cloud masks. You can also use it to process the sentinel 1 and 2 data the same way. Might be easier than Photoshop. Apologies if this belongs in stupid questions  :)
Liam
I've tried most of these, and I haven't seen a good method that works very well. Although the Sentinel cloud opacity slider seems ok, but I'm not sure it is using the most recent image to do that. It seems to be using a previous (older) image to fill in.
Layering in Photoshop, and very laboriously erasing clouds layer to layer, is the only other way, and often not that satisfactory, except if you are just trying to remove cloud from a couple of days images.

Regarding using Sentinel for Arctic, I'm not sure, but does it really go into the Arctic? Seems to cut off at the top of Greenland and all around that latitude, not really imaging the Arctic Ocean, only the peripheral of it?
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 02:45:54 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3113 on: July 24, 2017, 02:42:37 PM »
Guys, your help on the Sentinel graphics is appreciated, but please try to keep this forum free of comments that belong elsewhere. In this case, the Developers Corner thread was created for such discussions. Thanks...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3114 on: July 24, 2017, 04:21:26 PM »
Regarding using Sentinel for Arctic, I'm not sure, but does it really go into the Arctic? Seems to cut off at the top of Greenland and all around that latitude, not really imaging the Arctic Ocean, only the peripheral of it?

You appear to be thinking of Sentinel 2? Sentinel 1 covers most of the Arctic apart from a modest "Pole Hole".

See below for an example. Much higher resolution available via: http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

Guys, please try to keep this forum free of comments that belong elsewhere.

Is this sufficiently on topic? What should one do if folks keep on making misleading remarks in here?

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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3115 on: July 24, 2017, 04:25:19 PM »
You appear to be thinking of Sentinel 2? Sentinel 1 covers most of the Arctic apart from a modest "Pole Hole".
See below for an example. Much higher resolution available via: http://www.polarview.aq/arctic
Guys, please try to keep this forum free of comments that belong elsewhere.
Is this sufficiently on topic? What should one do if folks keep on making misleading remarks in here?
Yes, I meant Sentinel Playground. Is Sentinel 1 updated almost daily? Seems only updated for a certain area once in a while? Sentinel 2 seems more frequent?
For example, on topic, here's part of the Beaufort near Banks island, in Sentinel Playground a couple of days ago. I don't know how to do that with Polar View?
Click for best resolution:
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 07:13:10 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3116 on: July 24, 2017, 04:49:14 PM »
I meant Sentinel Playground, not misleading, as that is what was being discussed by Liam

Liam referred to the Sentinel Toolbox.

Sentinel 2 images the Beaufort Sea much more frequently than Sentinel 1. The reverse is true for (most of) the CAB however!
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3117 on: July 24, 2017, 04:50:35 PM »

Personally I reckon the risk is still very real on Pen Hadow's planned route!
Yes, going from Alaska seems ambitious. Wouldn't Iceland be a better point, and then past Svalbard somewhere. Maybe too stormy?

liefde

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3118 on: July 24, 2017, 05:05:44 PM »
In forecast mode (using 1992-2011 data), for 2012, my method still predicts 3.83, essentially the same as in hindcast mode (3.82). The final extent was 3.62, so a reasonable prediction.
In forecast mode (using 1992-2006 data), for 2007, my method predicts 5.06, slightly higher than the 4.77 prediction in hindcast mode, but still predicting a record low. The final was 4.29 which is quite a bit lower than either forecast or hindcast mode predictions.
So, the first (for 2007) showed .48 lower actual, the second (2012) .20 lower actual. Let's assume your forecasts aren't including methane and some other positive feedbacks with exponential forcing character for melting that should be included now rather than in 5 years, like with the IPCC, I think it's fair to say your prediction for 2017 could be about ~.8 off actual.
Taking that on board, for 2017, you predict 3.85 M km^2 NSIDC 'area' in September. I say that may well end up being no more than 3 M km^2 area in September.

Look at global SST's again, using the newer more accurate satellites, for July 23rd in 2016;

and 2017:

Note how the El Niño effects have barely, if at all, "disappeared". If anything, sea surface temps have gone more dense in heat overall, in the Mediterranean too. Looking at this global scale doesn't make it really clear, but heat has moved about 100km polewards, on both sides. This heat will exchange with surface air, move around, and ultimately melt ice.
Thickness and volume will, in my view, derived from first-hand work near Шпицберген 2 months ago, reach an absolute record low this year. And, like I wrote earlier, my 51 years on this planet tell me we've seen Peak Ice globally. For trustworthy predictions, I think we need to look at total energy in atmo. The energy has to be and go somewhere, when it's not radiated out to space. (Adding 4 Hiroshima bombs per second is not something to ignore.)
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 10:39:16 PM by liefde »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3119 on: July 24, 2017, 05:59:35 PM »
Шпицберген = Špicbergen = Spitsbergen
(not that I know Russian, but I can use a few internet resources)
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3120 on: July 24, 2017, 06:19:45 PM »
simply because last year heat in the NH was out of charts, this year isn't.
Hi seaicesalior, what data are you referring to in regards to this year's NH heat?

As others indicate the ocean around and in the arctic has been consistently building heat, more so than anywhere on earth, and is showing no signs of slowing. Perhaps weather this coming fall and winter might be cool enough to counteract the warmth in the oceans, but i wouldn't personally bet on that.

We have entered the positive phase of the PDO and even with the atmosphere behaving quite nina-ish the ocean in nino regions are not cooling like one would expect. Global temps so far this year are the second hottest ever recorded even amidst neutral to nina conditions - very unusual for that to happen, plz see short article -https://thinkprogress.org/no-el-nino-still-hot-39162a5cc5bc

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3121 on: July 24, 2017, 07:15:04 PM »
Sentinel 2 images the Beaufort Sea much more frequently than Sentinel 1. The reverse is true for (most of) the CAB however!
Thanks., I always wondered why people don't use Polar View more often.
Is there a magic 'composite view' on Polar View', or do I have to composite several images myself? (sorry, not sure the proper place for this question0
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 08:11:00 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3122 on: July 24, 2017, 08:11:24 PM »
Apologies if this is the wrong thread for this comment but I did a quick search and couldn't find one dedicated to the o-buoys.

I noticed that o-buoy 14 has been on the move for a couple of weeks and is headed below Stefansson island seemingly towards a dead end.  Maybe it will do a loop along another channel with the current or perhaps come back again.  No idea really.

On another note, the view from the camera a few weeks back showed a lot of surface water and less ice.  Since then it has appeared very icy with few melt ponds.

http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera


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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3123 on: July 24, 2017, 08:15:40 PM »
Here's the Buoy thread, Clenchie.

SST anomaly for today's date last year vs this year:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3124 on: July 24, 2017, 08:22:15 PM »
Is there a magic 'composite view' on Polar View?

Not that I am aware of. If you're particularly interested in the Beaufort Sea the Canadian Ice Service provide a weekly Radarsat-2 mosaic:

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/getprod.pl?prodid=IPYMMR1WA&lang=en
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3125 on: July 24, 2017, 09:56:10 PM »
Ok, I gave it a go. Didn't seem worth it in the end.
You live and learn.
I could have used their higher quality images, but would have taken too long.
Fram and north.
(Right-click - open image in new window, zoom-in for closer view)
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 10:46:28 PM by Thomas Barlow »

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3126 on: July 24, 2017, 10:14:26 PM »
Oren, the problem is that, no matter how scientifically correct comparisons you and others post, a gallery here will keep thinking the ice pack is this year of "a different quality", meaning made of thin smoking paper instead of H2O, as usual.
More ad hominem attacks. This forum is degenerating quickly, I must say.

As I and others have said repeatedly before, it goes without saying that the highest probability prediction will always come from pretty much ignoring any outlying data (like this year's low PIOMASS volume), assume no drastic changes from other years, and follow the trend lines (be they extremely over-simplified or merely somewhat over-simplified).

Personally, I am not at all interested in such conservative predictions -- they are boring. A lot of people, including many experts, think there's a good chance there will be a tipping point some time in the near future. But it's darn pretty hard to predict what it will look like.

There's no need to poke fun at people who are thinking outside the box, it's exactly what is needed to possibly predict, a little bit ahead of time, an event that would break all models and trend lines.

P.S. Why is seaicesailor a guest??  ???
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3127 on: July 24, 2017, 10:30:07 PM »
Regarding thin smoking paper.
Some clearer images just out in the last hour from Terra modis of the Nares strait, north of Greenland to north of Ellesmere Island.

This Piomass bank of 3-4m thick ice, our bestest most likelyest to survive of all?

Its not blue /grey from meltponds, its so thin you can see the sea thru it and is melting right out before it makes it 100km down Nares strait.

Its a slurry of salt ice slush and floating snow with a few old remnants embedded in it.
And its starting to flush through all the CAA channels.

Looking like we are already below all previous Sept volume minimums.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3128 on: July 24, 2017, 11:07:09 PM »
The melting momentum is currently strong in that area. It was very warm last summer too.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3129 on: July 24, 2017, 11:21:02 PM »
P.S. Why is seaicesailor a guest??  ???

We're looking into it.*

In the meantime, please, don't re-kindle the fire. We're all worried about AGW, and everyone will be equally excited when the ice suddenly melts out massively, despite weather conditions. We simply don't have perfect data to predict when, although it would've been more obvious if a lot of melting momentum had been built up this year during May and June, and snow would've melted faster.

----

* Seaicesailor, have you noticed any changes in your profile recently? Sorry to have to ask you here, but I can't seem to PM you.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3130 on: July 24, 2017, 11:21:52 PM »
Its not blue /grey from meltponds, its so thin you can see the sea thru it and is melting right out before it makes it 100km down Nares strait.

Its a slurry of salt ice slush and floating snow with a few old remnants embedded in it.
And its starting to flush through all the CAA channels.

First image: Sentinel from 4 days ago. Looks like melt ponds to me.

Second: Worldview from 24th July 2016. The state of the ice looks very similar to 2017.

I do agree that this doesn't look like strong 3-4m ice, and it isn't making it down Nares.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3131 on: July 24, 2017, 11:46:05 PM »
In the meantime, please, don't re-kindle the fire.
Ok. (Saw your post in 2017 data after I sent this.)  :)
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3132 on: July 24, 2017, 11:46:15 PM »
@Hyperion and bairgon
The bigger floes are probably busting up three dimensionally rather than just by width as they gets closer to Nares. Of course, I would not doubt if these were never as thick as they were made out to be in the beginning either.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 11:52:58 PM by Tigertown »

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3133 on: July 25, 2017, 12:26:05 AM »
Looking like we are already below all previous Sept volume minimums.
Respectfully disagree. I estimate we are at 7.5 (1000 km3) using extrapolation, while the 2012 minimum was 3.67.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3134 on: July 25, 2017, 01:19:13 AM »
Looking like we are already below all previous Sept volume minimums.
Respectfully disagree. I estimate we are at 7.5 (1000 km3) using extrapolation, while the 2012 minimum was 3.67.

I think Hyperion meant in the CAA area specifically, not in the whole pack.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3135 on: July 25, 2017, 05:57:00 AM »
Big waves forecast (ECMWF) to start around now and last a day or so in the Beaufort.

(Edit: Are these notherlies, southerlies, or otherlies?)
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 06:08:25 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3136 on: July 25, 2017, 06:20:47 AM »
Big waves forecast (ECMWF) to start around now and last a day or so in the Beaufort.

(Edit: Are these notherlies, southerlies, or otherlies?)

There is some warm water in the area, and it runs fairly deep. I guess that will stir it up a bit.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3137 on: July 25, 2017, 06:35:45 AM »
Two recent relatively clear days in the Beaufort: July 18th and 23rd. Extent and area remained relatively constant (see Wipneus' graphs), but a closer look tells a different story about the melt. Is the Beaufort finally getting ready to melt out, and if so how deep into the CAB might it go?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3138 on: July 25, 2017, 06:47:42 AM »
As gifs and also the Bremen Chukchi/Beaufort concentration map for the same dates.

(Edit: I removed my previous post of the still images as the gifs appear to be of the same resolution.)
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 06:58:18 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3139 on: July 25, 2017, 07:27:12 AM »
Greatdying, The wind forecast for Barrow airport is for southwest winds increasing 10-20 knots tomorrow.  So the wave forcast is for southerly waves along with the winds IMO.This should drive the waves towards ITP 97 which is in the pack north of the wave forecasts. ITP 97 is currently showing a lot of surface heating and a shoaling of salinity layers.It should  be interesting to see what effect some waves will have.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3140 on: July 25, 2017, 08:50:36 AM »
Arcus Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) July report is out :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/july
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3141 on: July 25, 2017, 08:55:21 AM »
Arcus Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) July report is out :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/july
Thanks. Figure 3 there is interesting.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3142 on: July 25, 2017, 09:01:52 AM »
The melting momentum is currently strong in that area. It was very warm last summer too.


The CAB is experiencing higher Temps relative to Rest of the Pack.
It looks to me that this is due to Export through Nares, Garlic Press, cyclonic Dispersion.
All that thick Ice is being dispersed all around & then >poof< it's gone.

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3143 on: July 25, 2017, 10:18:13 AM »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3144 on: July 25, 2017, 11:26:45 AM »
And then it started to change



I did notice a trend in the 75% concentration to spread in the direction of a clockwise gyre.  I was wondering what that effect might be over the next 6-7 weeks of melting.

It does look, to me, like the snow cover is now essentially gone and that the FYI is not providing such a strong resistance to the melting weather.  Even mediocre melting weather.  Although all the moisture is not insignificant.

On the Atlantic side that unstructured ice, north of Svalbard/FJI/Kara, has been growing for at least a month now and shows little sign of stopping.

The shallow NW passage is now showing ~50% concentration on a track that will open it and the NSR is almost open, if you don't mind doing a lot of wandering round the peripheral ice which is taking it's time to get there.

Right now re-growth is not exactly what I'd call this.  Although there is potential for this to halt as in all melting seasons.

Three more weeks and a strong storm and we'll be looking at a totally different ice pack.  Or, three more weeks and cloudy/colder weather and we'll be looking at a fizzle.

I don't expect a fizzle though.  We're under 2016 on extent now, the ice is very thin, volume is record low and there is all that bottom melt still to come, regardless of the topside weather.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3145 on: July 25, 2017, 02:49:21 PM »


"there is all that bottom melt still to come, regardless of the topside weather."
[/quote]

You nailed it!
sometimes

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3146 on: July 25, 2017, 02:50:42 PM »
As I expected the Atlantic side has been hit hard by the warm humid air blowing out of the south. The thick ice on PIOMAS north of Svalbard suddenly doesn't look so thick. The thing to remember is that last fall into winter there was a strong northwards flow of warm water at depth up the Fram strait on the Svalbard side. That flow turned eastward on the north shelf of Svalbard and followed the continental shelf. There's a lot of heat that hasn't been lost from the ocean under the ice in that region. There's far less deep heat in the rest of the Arctic ocean but all the open water in the peripheral seas surrounding the pack has taken up lots of solar heat in the top 30 meters.

The central Arctic will not melt out because there isn't much stored heat in the water under the ice. It takes melt ponds and sunny weather to warm up the layer of water under the ice. That's a large part of what Neven calls "melting momentum". Melting momentum just isn't there in the center of the pack, but it's strong around the edges. That's why this year will never catch up with the melting of 2012, but why it won't just stall out and be a strong recovery year as Rob Dekker's model would predict.

The 500mb reanalysis map shows that the American side of the Arctic ocean has been pretty warm aloft while the Siberian side has been cooler, cloudier and stormier than normal. The blocking pattern in the north Atlantic has advected large amounts of heat northwards along the European side of the Atlantic.

Moreover, the Chukchi sea has had record low ice for months and heat has built up in the top 30 meters. Bottom melt will strongly continue north of Alaska.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3147 on: July 25, 2017, 02:51:21 PM »
Yeah id expect another few days of 80 to 100k melt now and then back to small drops again before more big ones in a few days as the ice is "worked on"
 
I expect this pattern to repeat itself right into September but for the large drops to be more in the order of 60 to 80k.

However the ice is thin in many areas so a shrinking pack becomes very unpredictable but colder temps will stop some areas near atlantic side melting much more apart from NE greenland and some small areas

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3148 on: July 25, 2017, 03:30:52 PM »
A river of mush in the Lincoln Sea yesterday.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3149 on: July 25, 2017, 04:32:58 PM »
Mostly clear view of the Atlantic side today and wow look at those holes opening up!
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.