I'm confused... Don't the vast majority of people on this forum consistently agree with the conservative outlook?
Apparently not last year. Very little tolerance for views which ran against the "catastrophic" nature of the 2016 melting season or any views of anything which might be driving it.
Hence my comment. I'm watching the ice capitulate with great interest right now. It looks like the heavy snow layer might have been hiding an even worse situation with the ice than was originally thought. If that is the case and Bremen AMSR2 maps are showing a rapid and continuing concentration decline, this end of July. This decline might, just, tip the balance into a new record low if we get some storms even close to the GAC of 2012 and, given the shape, consistency of the ice and potential to release ocean heat to the atmosphere as moisture, this is by no means impossible.
Even if we have a record low, I expect it to be a difference which is proportional to the 2006/7 deviance minus the 2011/12 deviance. If that makes sense.
Even then, after a record low, I expect a greater growth of ice in 2017/18 than we saw in 2016/17 and, possibly, 2015/16 and for this phenomena to extend to the spring of 2020.
Whilst the last bit is out of the scope of this melting season, it was also out of scope of the 2016 season when I was talking about it then.
You say that people on the forum at conservative. I haven't noticed that. I have noticed a strong resistance to any event which exceeds the probable melt given the heat budget available to melt it. Said in that way, if you want to present a scenario where there is exceptional loss of ice beyond the viable heat budget, you do need to present the mechanism which introduces the extra melting, i.e. upwelling of deep ocean heat via extensive Ekman pumping.
I understand that "I expect" and "it seems", are just my opinion but there has to be some opinion or we're just watching the cricket scores here.
The reason "I expect" things are because I happen to follow a theory which has been, partially, studied by at least 3 different scientific studies with varied results. So far and in broad, for the last 3 years, the melting and freezing seasons have followed that theory.
I don't believe I have been guilty of
'something is about to happen that is invisible, but only a select few great minds have been predicting all along'
I have explained why I believe what I do and have presented links to studies which aim to prove, or disprove, what I see, with varying results.
I can't exactly help it if the Arctic keeps on doing what I said it would. We are below 2016 right now and everything points to the fact that we will continue on that path and down the path of 2012 to the end of the season. There is not a lot of chance that 2017 will stop and follow the track of 2016. But there is at least some chance it will and it cannot be discounted.
When we contrast the latest Bremen concentration image with 2012 of the same day
The potential for a GAC to wreak havoc in 2017 cannot be denied.
As for
Nevermind, I'm not going to respond to this kind of provocation again. Carry on...
When I chose to explain my thinking last year, as to why I believed that 2016 would stall and 2017 would not and would be a bigger melt year than 2016, the following happened.
I was called a denialist. The theory, to which I posted recent research was called "debunked" and several questions were asked as to why I should even be able to post here. If you believe that one sardonic comment of mine, followed by a zipped mouth emoticon, is baiting, then I guess I can't say any more.