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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3250 on: July 29, 2017, 04:34:12 AM »
There's less heat in the Barents Sea this year than last, but there is more heat entering the Arctic through the Fram strait, flowing into the Arctic on the north side of Svalbard than last year. That warm salty water is flowing along the continental shelf break below the cool surface water. SSTs do not tell the story on the Atlantic side of the Arctic because the warm Atlantic inflow is at intermediate depths.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3251 on: July 29, 2017, 12:52:37 PM »
There's less heat in the Barents Sea this year than last, but there is more heat entering the Arctic through the Fram strait, flowing into the Arctic on the north side of Svalbard than last year. That warm salty water is flowing along the continental shelf break below the cool surface water. SSTs do not tell the story on the Atlantic side of the Arctic because the warm Atlantic inflow is at intermediate depths.

I just came on line to comment (again) on that exact point. I've just spent the day downloading  all the ITP buoy data and charts, and comparing what they show changing for the last seven years in the state of the layered gulf-stream, Atlantic, pacific, and arctic surface waters. <snip, no one is saying that; N.>  But it does look to me very much what I've feared is happening.Buoys in similar location at this time as 95 north of Svalbard such as 37 in 2010 show a distinct deep saltier and hotter gulf-stream flow sinking of the shelf to 600+m depth. This seems to have occurred until the last 3 seasons, and now an increasingly co-mixed inflow of gulf-stream, Atlantic and surface melt is fattening and coming in directly under the fresher surface layer. Without as much evaporation or radiant heat disposal ability this water is six degrees hotter than last year where topography cause the currents to surface near Svalbard and FJL. We now have a full circle around the Arctic of continental shelf uncovered by Ice as a kill zone for floes flung out and a free for all mixing zone. the Pacific water is less than 25m down all round that end from Siberia to the CAA, where its not already fully mixing near the coasts. Not only does this mean all the oceanic incoming heat is remaining in or near the surface, but It stands every chance of lowering its salinity enough to fully mix away the entire Fresh Arctic surface water layer when the ice really loses all its peripheral extent a month from now. Mixing water of differing salinity also releases a lot of latent energy by the way. More melt-waters being exported than ice so its less visible, and other than cooling incoming surface air for a little while,which really is the only plus, it also reduces outgoing longwave and makes for damp fog that dews out everywhere on the Ice. We don't have thick chunks capable of clogging the CAA channels so they are venting melt and slush like never before, nor do we have remnant multiyear being hoarded in piles at the Siberian side. We have one Fat and Mixed slug of warm Atlantic water oozing in underneath to help flush out the fresh melt and river outflows, and hotter and more voluminous  Pacific inflow coming in with all it needs to maintain surface buoyancy layed on.
Heres the ITP95 and 37 comparisons, and tracks overlayed with sample periods matched up.  I've checked Every one and all show this trend. No more burying the gulfstream deep to soak away its heat into heavy rejected brine, and slip out quietly in the deep exit channel I'm afraid. Dont be confused by the changing colour codes either. These guys have been playing games with the chart colour scales and its been driving me nutso.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 01:16:50 PM by Neven »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3252 on: July 29, 2017, 01:43:32 PM »
   ....
And both ECMWF and GFS predict, that it will continue with more storms for the next week.
GFS shows the storm over the East Siberian Sea with below 980 hPa, GFS sees it even below 975 hPa.
   ....

GFS shows the later storm intensifying, to bottom out on 5th August.  Any corroboration from other models?
Its track would cause considerable dispersion in an area where the thin ice is vulnerable.  A large separation event is possible, though not likely on the scale of 2012's.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3253 on: July 29, 2017, 03:33:26 PM »
And beforehand the ice starts to look really weak. Only a very central area that is not affected by melt. That storm could be a killshot (not to mention that worrying observation Hyperion and Fish out of Water made - which explains the atlantic melt that at fist sight seems so strange given this year's cooler water in this area).
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 03:52:37 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3254 on: July 29, 2017, 03:49:26 PM »
There's less heat in the Barents Sea this year than last, but there is more heat entering the Arctic through the Fram strait, flowing into the Arctic on the north side of Svalbard than last year. That warm salty water is flowing along the continental shelf break below the cool surface water. SSTs do not tell the story on the Atlantic side of the Arctic because the warm Atlantic inflow is at intermediate depths.

SSTs in some small areas on the atlantic side was and still is chilled by the surplus of MYI that drifted in from the americas, it's not that the energy was lower in februrary and march, the lower SSTs in those tiny regions started to develop in spring when there was higher albedo and a lot more ice to melt that was replenished over quite some time. one has to distinguish cause from effect and choose words carefully, it's not cooler "just like that", it has generally been warmer and got cooler for a reason which will have an impact on the outcome of this melting season.

last but not least 90%+ of the north atlantic north of iceland is way above average in temps, as mentioned above the cooler spots are tiny and do not even cover an entire sea-region.

at least that's what i observed, should there be more to it or i be slightly off in some detail, i'm all ears. :-)
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 04:36:03 PM by magnamentis »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3255 on: July 29, 2017, 03:54:11 PM »
And beforehand the ice starts to look really weak. Only a very central area that is not affected by melt. That storm could be a killshot (not to mention that worrying observation Hyperion and Fish out of Water made - which explains the atlantic melt that at fist sight seems so strange given this year's cooler water in this area).

and your overlay in places is quite optimistic, i'm sure we won't see the perry channel entrance closed in september or end of august even.

that said, i thank you for the animation, crossed my mind yesterday to make something similar and i was too lazy, kudos.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3256 on: July 29, 2017, 04:35:54 PM »
After several days of stalling (or even small upticks), NSIDC sea ice extent values are seriously dropping again:
2017,    07,  21,      7.243
2017,    07,  22,      7.289
2017,    07,  23,      7.327
2017,    07,  24,      7.242
2017,    07,  25,      7.150
2017,    07,  26,      7.125
2017,    07,  27,      7.005
2017,    07,  28,      6.810

miki

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3257 on: July 29, 2017, 04:45:58 PM »
What truly gives me to think and to worry is the quite cooler temperatures around Greenland on the Atlantic side in 2017.

 
Here are the DMI SST anomalies of today's date vs same date 2014 and July 28th 2012 and 2016.



It's clear that this year is no rebound year like 2014 was, but it also can't quite compare to the heat anomaly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in 2012 and 2016. I believe that this was one of the reasons 2016 ended as low as it did, as weather conditions weren't all that conducive to melting either (this year is worse, unless a big GAC and mega-Dipole show up, like they did in August last year).

But given that PIOMAS volume is as low as it is, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if this year ends in the top 3, regardless of the weather, which would be quite spectacular in itself. If there's a GAC or something similar, a second place is quite possible as well. Somehow I don't believe the 2012 records will be broken, but you never know.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3258 on: July 29, 2017, 04:53:02 PM »
and your overlay in places is quite optimistic, i'm sure we won't see the perry channel entrance closed in september or end of august even.

Concerning September you are probably right. I did not go that far as to dare to make an accurate prediction. I just saw that pattern on the actual ice.

What truly gives me to think and to worry is the quite cooler temperatures around Greenland on the Atlantic side in 2017.

Have a read just a bit upwards this thread. FishoutofWater and Hyperion are giving interesting explanations.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3259 on: July 29, 2017, 04:53:58 PM »
On the shelf break on the Atlantic side We're talking about a layer of ice that was a few meters thick.  North winds blew this ice over warm Atlantic water hundreds of meters thick. Now the winds there have shifted to the southwest. Waves and storms will attack the pack by mixing the water. Obviously, the ice/ blue water edge is most vulnerable to waves.

The fresh water layer is very thick in the Beaufort sea but is quite thin along the Atlantic side continental shelf break. Storms on the Atlantic side have the potential of doing more damage to the ice by mixing up warm water from below.

I don't claim to have any way of predicting how the melting is going to progress. This season is going to challenge everyone's predictions. I'm not surprised, however, by how the Atlantic side has recently appeared to be vulnerable because I track the warm water inflows to the Arctic.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3260 on: July 29, 2017, 05:32:06 PM »
Heres the ITP95 and 37 comparisons, and tracks overlayed with sample periods matched up.  I've checked Every one and all show this trend.

What trend? Perhaps you could highlight the differences you can apparently discern between the ITP 37/95 plots?

Perhaps you could also explain the way in which you have manipulated the ITP 37 plots
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meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3261 on: July 29, 2017, 05:53:58 PM »
After several days of stalling (or even small upticks), NSIDC sea ice extent values are seriously dropping again:
2017,    07,  21,      7.243
2017,    07,  22,      7.289
2017,    07,  23,      7.327
2017,    07,  24,      7.242
2017,    07,  25,      7.150
2017,    07,  26,      7.125
2017,    07,  27,      7.005
2017,    07,  28,      6.810

Whoaaa... That Trend doesn't look good.
Ice being spread out into warm Seas just to be boiled away instantaneously.
Could be a harbinger of a real >poof, it's gone< Event. Maybe that1s what is at work over ALL the Icepack. That's why we have a seemingly high Extent so far.
1,5 Months still to go, Folks.
My Patria is soon to enter its worst, never ever seen Heatwave with Highs up to mid 40s deg C.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3262 on: July 29, 2017, 06:15:33 PM »
No more burying the gulfstream deep to soak away its heat into heavy rejected brine, and slip out quietly in the deep exit channel I'm afraid.
This makes me wonder... There has been much discussion of the unprecedentedly low ice volume (PIOMAS) this year, the accompanying very high snow cover, and how the snow seemed to have prevented or delayed melt, allowing the volume to "recover".

But what is the effect of less freeze and less melt on the halocine? Is the halocine weaker this year?
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3263 on: July 29, 2017, 07:11:35 PM »

Concerning September you are probably right. I did not go that far as to dare to make an accurate prediction. I just saw that pattern on the actual ice.


This region of dark purple in the CAB is an indication of sea ice concentration and not melt. There could be and likely are areas here that are aggressively melting.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3264 on: July 29, 2017, 07:18:10 PM »
Hello Shared Humanity. Technically you're certainly right. But a decade of watching such images conditioned my guts in that way: Melt is where the colors shine. Of course that dermatologic blistering of the Atlantic side could spread further into the CA, who knows ...
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 07:23:21 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3265 on: July 29, 2017, 07:30:58 PM »

Funny, I had drawn a similar outline on the 25th, but just didn't do it as precise.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3266 on: July 29, 2017, 08:23:57 PM »
Chukchi looking rough today. Wind and waves:
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3267 on: July 29, 2017, 09:49:16 PM »
What truly gives me to think and to worry is the quite cooler temperatures around Greenland on the Atlantic side in 2017.

just consider how much MYI and ice in general was flushed down that coast this year and all makes sense, add ice to warm drinks and they get cooler, same effect.

further there was a lot of extra snow on greenland and temps around there were quite coold for an extended period of time, only now some warmer weather kicked in.

may i ask what is worrying you about cooler temps, theoretically they would be good if they meant that global warming came to a halt which of course is not the case?

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3268 on: July 29, 2017, 11:08:07 PM »
Funny, I had drawn a similar outline on the 25th, but just didn't do it as precise.

The less precise the better at this date  ;)
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3269 on: July 30, 2017, 12:08:57 AM »
and your overlay in places is quite optimistic, i'm sure we won't see the perry channel entrance closed in september or end of august even.

The Slater Projection is similarly optimistic in that locale, and a bit more optimistic elsewhere.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3270 on: July 30, 2017, 12:19:37 AM »
The Slater Projection is similarly optimistic in that locale, and a bit more optimistic elsewhere.

Watch the dotted line: That remnant thick ice you are referring to, is the only one south of the 80th parallel north. It should be much more exposed to melt conditions than the rest. So there's no certainty that this ice prevails.
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be cause

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3271 on: July 30, 2017, 01:57:15 AM »
Sorry TT , but the dotted line you are referring to is the 75th parallel .
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3272 on: July 30, 2017, 02:08:20 AM »
I would also say that melt water accumulation from MYI between pulverized CAB sea ice floes has similar stabilizing effect as long as winds do not whip up and mix water. But as perimeter ice retreats to the centre, the buffer zone narrows and vertical mixing accelerates. I would not be suprised of "Atlantic Bite" style open water incursions starting to appear from other directions, especially as it is FYI. It will be combinatorix of buffer zone retreat and depressions stirring water to extract heat from deeper water's thermal inertia. I do not know if protective melt water pooling survives, but it is surely there as much as it exists around melting Hudson Bay ice.
This might be a bit of a stupid questions, but why is there still ice in hudson bay?
I went though world view and it what appears like slush, but its been like this for several weeks.
The ocean is dark all around it and have been for over a month, hence should have picked up a lot of energy.
Is this a remnant of MYI, or is there a different explanation?
That is quite common in the Hudson Bay. In nearly every year the ice is driven to the western shore of the bay and stays there for multiple weeks. My guess is, that there aren't much currents in that area and not much overturning, so the cold meltwater stays near the surface, providing a cold environment for the remaining ice.

2016 had ice around till August 7th exactly at the same spot, and 2015 had it there even till end of August.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3273 on: July 30, 2017, 03:36:05 AM »
Sorry TT , but the dotted line you are referring to is the 75th parallel .

Uh, yes, quite a difference, thank you BC for correcting this.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2017, 03:41:11 AM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3274 on: July 30, 2017, 04:21:19 AM »
It was clear on the Pacific front yesterday, and the ice in the Western Beaufort looks even worse than on the Hamburg concentration map. The image shows an area from 148-152W which is almost open water already. It's interesting that the areas of highest concentration are at the edge. I've been wondering if, at the periphery, in this era of mush, area is measuring something different from in the past, where bottom melt reaching far into the pack spreads the melting ice over all the area, and floes are too small to see te open water between them from the satellites

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3275 on: July 30, 2017, 05:08:25 AM »
Pacific side in retreat. Ice melting before it barely can head south to the Fram. Looks like dispersion on the Atlantic side. Peripheral ice is melting fast, along with Baffin remnants.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3276 on: July 30, 2017, 06:52:57 AM »
It was clear on the Pacific front yesterday, and the ice in the Western Beaufort looks even worse than on the Hamburg concentration map.
Wow -- ya, that's showing up as 50% concentration still. How thick is that, maybe a few cm? It could vanish almost overnight, especially with the stormy weather in that area today...
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3277 on: July 30, 2017, 09:37:22 AM »
That should supply a steady decrease of extent numbers once the satellites pick it up.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3278 on: July 30, 2017, 10:42:05 AM »
These huge packs of november-formed FYI begin to reach 0 cm thickness. It has begun and that will be WOW every day

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3279 on: July 30, 2017, 10:57:20 AM »
At first Glance the 2017 looks to be of higher Extent, but as far as colors are concerned, there is far less green and light blue compared to Last Season.
My Guess is that we are gonna have the Repeat of Last Year's Heart Formation if we're lucky, otherwise a 2012- like, but mostly Rubble.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3280 on: July 30, 2017, 11:11:09 AM »
I'm not sure there is reason to worry about more sustained large declines in extent, guys.

Looking at Wipneus' NSIDC ice concentration numbers, which again shut up recently :
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
concentration is now running between 2013 and 2014 levels, this is typically an indication that 'extent' is up for another stall in the next couple of days.

Longer term, looking at the 'area' numbers (typically a better indicator of ice melt than 'extent') 2017 is running in 7th place or so, as Steven pointed out in another thread :



In fact, 'area' runs between 2010 and 2013 levels at this point giving an indication where this season is heading.

Also, 'albedo' numbers according to Nico Sun :
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs
are running in the middle of the pack at 2010, 2015 sort of level, suggesting that there is no a lot of heat input (at least not from 'albedo' sources).

And then there is Slater's model, which is pretty darn accurate at the 50 day lead times.
It just bottomed out (daily minimum) at 4.5 M km^2 or so.
2016 bottomed out at 4.1 and ended up at 4.7 for the (NSIDC) monthly average, so it is very well possible that 2017 will end up in the high 4's or low 5's for NSIDC, putting it in 7th place or so (similar to the 'area' rating at this point).

So even though it doesn't look like 2017 is going with my model projection (of 5.4) of a recovery year, there are plenty of indications it will stall extent in the short term and end up high in September.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3281 on: July 30, 2017, 01:09:25 PM »
I think the hole in the ice north of Laptev Sea has formed now.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3282 on: July 30, 2017, 01:21:48 PM »
Rob

Thank you for clear, cogent analysis. And, are you going to officially lower your 5.4km2 prediction? 🤔

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3283 on: July 30, 2017, 02:40:03 PM »
Rob

Thank you for clear, cogent analysis. And, are you going to officially lower your 5.4km2 prediction? 🤔

Actual compactness, right now, with no Respect for the Weather to come in the remaining 1,5 Months....
Doesn't seem to be a real Indicator for me, concerning Sept. Minimum.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3284 on: July 30, 2017, 03:10:35 PM »
What's different this time is that the first year ice that covered most of the Arctic ocean started out significantly thinner because the winter was so warm. I have no disagreements with Rob about his observations, but there is quite simply less ice to melt this summer. Because the ice is so thin it is vulnerable to strong storms. The ice is so thin that large areas could melt out very quickly. That's what's happening now north of Alaska.

Who ever gets this year's forecast right can credit a lot of luck for their success.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3285 on: July 30, 2017, 03:30:37 PM »
Off-topic or not off-topic ?

After doing almost nothing this season, Greenland melting suddenly woke up a few days ago, with intense melting meaning up to 8 gigatonne (8 cubic kilometres) of cold fresh water is being dumped per day into the ocean from the peripheral regions of Greenland. This is about twice the daily average for this time of year. This looks set to continue for a few days yet.

One wonders how much effect this has, for example, on the sea ice attached north of Greenland and in the Nares strait.

ps: Posted some stuff from http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/ on the greenland melting thread.
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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3286 on: July 30, 2017, 04:03:12 PM »
It's off-topic, but an interesting update on Greenland ice sheet melt. It would be better though if you'd actually link to the Greenland 2017 melt season thread so people can read what's being written there and write something themselves if they'd like.  :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3287 on: July 30, 2017, 04:08:23 PM »
It would be better though if you'd actually link to the Greenland 2017 melt season thread so people can read what's being written there and write something themselves if they'd like.  :)
I need to figure out how to do that. Am I being thick?
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3288 on: July 30, 2017, 05:18:02 PM »
It was clear on the Pacific front yesterday, and the ice in the Western Beaufort looks even worse than on the Hamburg concentration map. The image shows an area from 148-152W which is almost open water already. It's interesting that the areas of highest concentration are at the edge. I've been wondering if, at the periphery, in this era of mush, area is measuring something different from in the past, where bottom melt reaching far into the pack spreads the melting ice over all the area, and floes are too small to see te open water between them from the satellites
Healy is a little west of there 73.1N 151.4W and shows ice on the aloftcam since yesterday http://icefloe.net/Aloftcon_Photos/index.php?album=2017

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3289 on: July 30, 2017, 05:23:11 PM »
The Slater Projection is similarly optimistic in that locale, and a bit more optimistic elsewhere.

thanks, nice input, we gonna see, all is possible of course.

enjoy further

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3290 on: July 30, 2017, 05:25:58 PM »
It was clear on the Pacific front yesterday, and the ice in the Western Beaufort looks even worse than on the Hamburg concentration map. The image shows an area from 148-152W which is almost open water already. It's interesting that the areas of highest concentration are at the edge. I've been wondering if, at the periphery, in this era of mush, area is measuring something different from in the past, where bottom melt reaching far into the pack spreads the melting ice over all the area, and floes are too small to see te open water between them from the satellites

this would be a huge area that could fall below the 15% threshold within a few hours, does anyone disagree and if so, why?

i'm asking because this kind of ice condition is what i'm referring to for quite some time and if i overlook something i'd like to know what. thanks

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3291 on: July 30, 2017, 05:54:00 PM »
It was clear on the Pacific front yesterday, and the ice in the Western Beaufort looks even worse than on the Hamburg concentration map. The image shows an area from 148-152W which is almost open water already. It's interesting that the areas of highest concentration are at the edge. I've been wondering if, at the periphery, in this era of mush, area is measuring something different from in the past, where bottom melt reaching far into the pack spreads the melting ice over all the area, and floes are too small to see the open water between them from the satellites

this would be a huge area that could fall below the 15% threshold within a few hours, does anyone disagree and if so, why?

i'm asking because this kind of ice condition is what i'm referring to for quite some time and if i overlook something i'd like to know what. thanks
Within a few days, probably. Within several hours, no. Natural processes take time. IMHO.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3292 on: July 30, 2017, 06:18:35 PM »
Within a few days, probably. Within several hours, no. Natural processes take time. IMHO.

just to make sure i didn't make a lingual mistake, i did not mean withing the next few hours but withing a few hours once the point will be reached which can be any time, in extremis even never.

thanks for the input with a differing opinion but can you also tell me why? or in other words what those natural processes would be once the point of 15% will be reached over a large area?

what always remains is to watch and see, i'm just curious, enjoy the weekend

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3293 on: July 30, 2017, 06:27:29 PM »
What does it matter whether it happens within a few hours or a few days? As long as it goes before the freezing season starts again, the satellite sensors will notice.

If you want to discuss how ice melts exactly, and how fast, you need to open a different thread. There's a lot of literature on this stuff.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3294 on: July 30, 2017, 07:07:24 PM »
Very little in the Beaufort looks safe right now.



It looks like the weather patterns are still ripping the CAB apart and shoving it out to the periphery for extermination.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3295 on: July 30, 2017, 07:10:29 PM »
What does it matter whether it happens within a few hours or a few days? As long as it goes before the freezing season starts again, the satellite sensors will notice.

If you want to discuss how ice melts exactly, and how fast, you need to open a different thread. There's a lot of literature on this stuff.

gonna read it up as suggested and with all due respect, yes it matters, the entire thread is about melting speed and underlaying mechanisms and the interplay between them, else we could await the end of the season and discuss how it went, if it goes soon the end will be different than if it takes another month.

i had a lengthy pm written and a lenghty reply but deleted them, the above is the shortest and best i can come up with, hope it's ok ;)

NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3296 on: July 30, 2017, 07:10:38 PM »
Meanwhile, on the Atlantic side, Extent continues to be supported by zones like this.



It can only lead to some interesting changes in the next 6 weeks.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3297 on: July 30, 2017, 07:13:01 PM »
Many times an assault on the sea ice is multi-faceted, with each component contributing to melt the ice. The water that has recently been warmed both directly and indirectly by the sun plays one part, but has been limited because things have been so stagnant lately. If something, say a moderate little spitfire of a storm, comes spinning through and stirs the waters up, well then, the water takes on a lot bigger role in melting the ice and the rate changes just like that. If there is a positive point in this it would be that the newly opened water from this will not have much insolation season left. The negative side will be if the CAB gets a late case of Norovirus and looses a goodly portion of what's left through the CAA, Nares, and Fram. Don't judge what export can do based on the past. The ice that is in the Arctic now can flow fast and smooth if given the opportunity. I am not making a prediction, so much as pointing out the worst case scenario. If the ice gets pushed in that direction, what can stop it? The only hope to hold to is that it doesn't get pushed from the start.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3298 on: July 30, 2017, 07:47:16 PM »
Very little in the Beaufort looks safe right now.


Nice 15 m/s wind right now and staying like this for a while (Earth nullschool).

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3299 on: July 30, 2017, 09:20:20 PM »
... looking at the 'area' numbers ...
... 'albedo' numbers ...
... Slater's model ...

The Slater model and Area numbers look like they are oscillating more than usual, suggesting that our traditional graphs don't understand the high area and low volume of this year's ice.  But this coming week has traditionally been rather informative.

Climate Reanalyzer suggests that heat will tend to be over the thickest ice north of the Archipelago and Greenland, which might trash volume while leaving extent and area largely unaffected.