The 2017 melting season

[Ice Shieldz]

Building on the last frame of TT's concentration map, I overlaid 48hrs of Euro forecasted surface winds via WindyTV. GFS is in good general agreement, although the euro has higher winds - up to 64KM.

[oren]

All I need to do now is generate one for each day and then figure out how to join them together into a movie, which is easy I guess.

Here's a very quick method to make GIFs. Other methods are mentioned in that thread as well.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1259.msg123507.html#msg123507

[Shared Humanity]

Building on the last frame of TT's concentration map, I overlaid 48hrs of Euro forecasted surface winds via WindyTV. GFS is in good general agreement, although the euro has higher winds - up to 64KM.

Wow!

Continued dispersion of ice towards the Barents and a gut punch where the ice is weakest on the Pacific side where we should see both melt and compaction.

If that 2nd low that is moving along Siberia makes it to the pole, (seems likely based on this animation) then dispersion towards the Barents will continue.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

If there is any fun in these matters, the fun is that often we do not know the outcome of matters and this drives our curiosity over how things will end up - and so often getting it all wrong. Nothing self-evident doctrinarian certainty. Many ups and downs instead. 

Controversy is a big part of ASIF. Challenging the conventional wisdom is how science and just about everything progresses.
Do not be afraid of being uncertain. If I did that I would scarcely post anything.

Could not agree more, any idea is worth posting and discussing. Also, uncertainty (as in I can't understand) was the whole point of my post.

[NeilT]

If anything says the situation with the ice, for me, today, it is the mosaic image of the tip of the Laptev bite.



To the left, the rapidly shredding Pacific side.  To the right, clockwise, the disorganised and rapidly separating Atlantic side ice encroaching on the Laptev Bite.  Just out of image on the right is the large open water area which has been growing steadily over the last two weeks.

The arctic stands poised on a knife edge.  Fall off one side and all that open water within the slush and mini floes will freeze and we're heading for the impression that the ice "recovered".  Some relatively active storms (no need for GAC's with this mess) and we could be rapidly heading for a record.

As we stand at this cusp all we do know is that every storm will do more damage than the same intensity storm in years/decades past.  We do not know if the storms will appear and how strong they will be.

My bet is that all the open water there already will tend to suck the weather systems in and keep driving the loss, rather than 2017 taking a 2011 path and heading for minor loss and a #4/5 level finish.

That one image says to me that we are seeing yet another change in the way things melt and how melt seasons emerge.  This should not be a surprise.  We could hardly expect the Arctic to keep on losing volume but then carry on melting and responding to heat import events in the same way.  It is why even the very best models have issues. Because we can't finely model a system which keeps on changing its responses to the same stimulus.

It is also why a fast moving system does not lend itself to studies which explain the current position in that journey.  Studies are funded and carried out based upon existing knowledge of ice dynamics in order to study it in greater detail.  Witness Dr Barber and his voyage to study the interaction of MYI north of the CAA, only to find that the ice there only looked like MYI, it responded to force of an ice breaker with less strength than FYI.

Studies on polynya dynamics do tell us that late July/early August open water leads, within the pack, drive more moist and more stormy weather.  How that applies to ice which can't form polynia's because there is not enough solid ice to create one, not even slush but thousands/millions of small floes with open water between and the impact on weather events which damage the ice, I expect to be studied and modelled in the next decade when it has become "the norm".  Sadly that doesn't help us determine what is going to happen in the next 5 weeks.

So we are back to guessing.

My guess?  New record or very, very close.

[Thawing Thunder]

I compared the DMI thickness map to the Hamburg concentration map. For me they just don't fit.  (edit: for better visualization I quit the violet 25cm-edge)

[Dharma Rupa]

My bet is that all the open water there already will tend to suck the weather systems in and keep driving the loss, rather than 2017 taking a 2011 path and heading for minor loss and a #4/5 level finish.

I'm fairly sure that all that open water will pull in the fog next Winter.  I don't know enough about cold-core storms to really say about the rest of Summer.  I will note that we've had plenty of them the last couple of years.

[jai mitchell]

just gonna leave this here. 

[Treesong]

Sorry, if I'm interrupting the current discussion. Just posting an animation of the last two weeks with some slowmotion. In my opinion now you can see very well, what are clouds and what is SI. If the trend we see continues, the next two weeks could definitely wreck the ice.

This is perhaps the most fascinating animation I've ever seen on this forum. The motions and melting are beautifully clear and the separation of ice and clouds is, as advertised, excellent.

[greatdying2]

I compared the DMI thickness map to the Hamburg concentration map. For me they just don't fit.  (edit: for better visualization I quit the violet 25cm-edge)

Nice work. Yeah the 2 "arms reaching up" seem to have the wrong thickness. The one on the left in the image seems too thick and the one on the right way too thin (although it's hard to know of course from a flat image).

[greatdying2]

Building on the last frame of TT's concentration map, I overlaid 48hrs of Euro forecasted surface winds via WindyTV. GFS is in good general agreement, although the euro has higher winds - up to 64KM.

Yikes. If I were the ice, I would be scared. 

[Sterks]

I compared the DMI thickness map to the Hamburg concentration map. For me they just don't fit.  (edit: for better visualization I quit the violet 25cm-edge)

That's a good one, TT
There is no 4 metre thick ice in the ESS bulge but the USS Healy should veer and investigate (? ? ?)
 For once and all let clear that the DMI thickness is utterly unreliable.
Piomas sometimes shows some strange things, the Navy Hycom more, but nothing like this

[greatdying2]

Sorry, if I'm interrupting the current discussion. Just posting an animation of the last two weeks with some slowmotion. In my opinion now you can see very well, what are clouds and what is SI. If the trend we see continues, the next two weeks could definitely wreck the ice.

Great! Yes, the clouds are obvious here -- you can even see the cyclonic patterns.

[Sterks]

Building on the last frame of TT's concentration map, I overlaid 48hrs of Euro forecasted surface winds via WindyTV. GFS is in good general agreement, although the euro has higher winds - up to 64KM.

Excellent visualization, the more relevant now as storms seize the Arctic and won't let go until Winter or Spring

[be cause]

According to Cryosphere Today , area fell 576 k over the next 4 days in 2012 .. 144k per day . Interestingly .. according to Wipneus's NSIDC Area has fallen 430.2 k over the last 3 days .. 143.4k per day ! and just over 10% of the total . There is enough weather in the outlook to keep us all interested .. 2 million km+ is still easily at risk

[subgeometer]

My bet is that all the open water there already will tend to suck the weather systems in and keep driving the loss, rather than 2017 taking a 2011 path and heading for minor loss and a #4/5 level finish.

I'm fairly sure that all that open water will pull in the fog next Winter.  I don't know enough about cold-core storms to really say about the rest of Summer.  I will note that we've had plenty of them the last couple of years.

Last autumn all that open water invited storms. I think were likely to see a repeat, at least in theme. What is maybe interesting and a bit different this year is that lows can enter from Siberia and track all the way to the ice north of the the CAA with warmish ocean on their southern flank. That seems to the the pattern at the moment and if it continues, the storms might intensify as the sun drops,

[slow wing]

Sorry, if I'm interrupting the current discussion. Just posting an animation of the last two weeks with some slowmotion. In my opinion now you can see very well, what are clouds and what is SI. If the trend we see continues, the next two weeks could definitely wreck the ice.

Building on the last frame of TT's concentration map, I overlaid 48hrs of Euro forecasted surface winds via WindyTV. GFS is in good general agreement, although the euro has higher winds - up to 64KM.

Just loving these graphics, thank you! They provide excellent visual aids to understand what is going on with the ice.

(Probably way too much to even suggest but I would bookmark these if it happened they could be done daily and put on Neven's graphics page.)

[greatdying2]

Here are my first gifs of the lagging minimum post-processed Bremen NIC maps. (Might need an acronym for that  ). For these I have used the minimum over 3 days, which seems to get rid of most but not all of the atmospheric artifacts. These are for the last week (7 days ending Aug 2nd).

I produced 2 gifs:
1.) A side-by-side next to the original unmodified image for the same end day. This is for those who prefer the originals, and to help evaluate the effect of the post-processing.
2.) One just showing just the post-processed image, which has better resolution (due to restrictions on what can be posted).

They do seem quite useful. For example, the rapid acceleration of melt in the last 2 days is much more obvious with the clouds removed.

I plan to make longer ones soon that go back to earlier dates, and also to play merges over longer than 3 days.

[subgeometer]

There's a hole developing between FJL and the pole at around 85N. It's been showing as part of the border of the 2-3million km2 of remaining solid pack on the concentration maps for a while. Clouds continue to obscure everything north of 85N in this region, but the map has low concentration continuing to 87N,

 I've attached a closeup with a wider view showing FJL at right, the new hole at bottom left and the other hole north of the Laptev at top, as well as a Bremen map with the 'border' marked in crudely. Hopefully most of that extent will survive. Outside that I think we might see detached blobs , more than arms

[subgeometer]

Here are my first gifs of the lagging minimum post-processed Bremen NIC maps. (Might need an acronym for that  ). For these I have used the minimum over 3 days, which seems to get rid of most but not all of the atmospheric artifacts. These are for the last week (7 days ending Aug 2nd).

I produced 2 gifs:
1.) A side-by-side next to the original unmodified image for the same end day. This is for those who prefer the originals, and to help evaluate the effect of the post-processing.
2.) One just showing just the post-processed image, which has better resolution (due to restrictions on what can be posted).

They do seem quite useful. For example, the rapid acceleration of melt in the last 2 days is much more obvious with the clouds removed.

I plan to make longer ones soon that go back to earlier dates, and also to play merges over longer than 3 days.

As an Acronym I propose LAMP-B (ie LAgging Minimum post-Processing-Bremen), as they're illuminating and you need a lamp at hand when in PYJAMAS

[deconstruct]

That's a good one, TT
There is no 4 metre thick ice in the ESS bulge but the USS Healy should veer and investigate (? ? ?)
 For once and all let clear that the DMI thickness is utterly unreliable.
Piomas sometimes shows some strange things, the Navy Hycom more, but nothing like this

I can't really follow the critic of the DMI volume map shown above. The distribution of the volume and the ice-distribution match in that specific case IMO quiet well. If the ice really has the simulated thickness, is another thing, but the satellite picture shows you only the 2d-version of the ice, so it is hard to impossible to get that from the satellite image.

And that the DMI map in the ESS would show 4m thick ice, is just plain wrong, the only orange patch shows ice that might be only 2m thick, the rest is already gone or thinner. And if you compare Healy images from the AloftCon camera in the Beaufort sea, you see only thin ice, as it is shown in the DMI map also (ice between 0.5 and 1m). I've overlayed the Healy travel route onto the animation below.

So, the DMI map might show the ice in general a bit thicker, than it actually is, but the distribution of the volume in the map matches IMO in most areas quiet well with the satellite image.

[Pmt111500]

I compared the DMI thickness map to the Hamburg concentration map. For me they just don't fit.  (edit: for better visualization I quit the violet 25cm-edge)

Thickest decile on dmi? Would fit to mapping navigational hazards.

[greatdying2]

I propose LAMP-B (ie LAgging Minimum post-Processing-Bremen)

I like it! With a small modification:

Here is the 3-day LAMB (LAgging Minimum Bremen) map for 4 weeks ending Aug. 2nd:

[Rob Dekker]

Here is the 3-day LAMB (LAgging Minimum Bremen) map for 4 weeks ending Aug. 2nd:

Very nice work !
Your 3-day LAMB is definitely more 'consistent' than the unfiltered AMSR images.
Also interesting that (in this 4 week animation) the ice North of the Chukchi disappears much faster than the ice North of the ESS or the Beaufort.
Suspect is that (persistent) cyclone that drives the ice towards the CAB from the Chukchi.
 

[Sterks]

... the satellite picture shows you only the 2d-version of the ice, so it is hard to impossible to get that from the satellite image....

As much as a satellite can't detect 3D, it can detect effects in two consecutive days that can give us a very good idea of the average thickness of the ice. Indeed, the concentration derived from the AMSR2 instrumentation has just shown a huge phenomenon of "flash melting" one day and "unflashing" on the next, inside the marked oval. What this has indicated in other occasions is that the affected area is very close to the total disappearance. Such an advanced melting ice stage is not compatible with 2-3 meters average thickness.

[RikW]

But nothing in that oval region is 2+m isn't it? (if I read the colours correctly)

I see some parts 1,5 - 2m thick and large parts the region of it below 1m thickness.

[Thawing Thunder]

... the satellite picture shows you only the 2d-version of the ice, so it is hard to impossible to get that from the satellite image....

As much as a satellite can't detect 3D, it can detect effects in two consecutive days that can give us a very good idea of the average thickness of the ice. Indeed, the concentration derived from the AMSR2 instrumentation has just shown a huge phenomenon of "flash melting" one day and "unflashing" on the next, inside the marked oval. What this has indicated in other occasions is that the affected area is very close to the total disappearance. Such an advanced melting ice stage is not compatible with 2-3 meters average thickness.

So, the DMI map might show the ice in general a bit thicker, than it actually is, but the distribution of the volume in the map matches IMO in most areas quiet well with the satellite image.

I think the latter comment opens a possible approach between these two points of view: GENERALLY speaking, DMI is correct, showing the ice a bit too thick. On the other hand, you can definitely pic local failures.

[F.Tnioli]

Meanwhile, PIOMAS gives all-time-lowest volume loss during 2nd half of July. And 2nd-lowest whole July. On one hand, it's strange, due to much fragmented and thin state, some significant steering we had during July, and no lack of big positive SST anomalies on Pacific and Siberian sides. On the other hand, it follows the general trend for reduction of July volume loss (you lose less when there is less ice existing by the start in July, in the 1st place). Still, a bit too short.

[Ninebelowzero]

Another chunk of fast (4m thick?) ice detaches.

[F.Tnioli]

Building on the last frame of TT's concentration map, I overlaid 48hrs of Euro forecasted surface winds via WindyTV. GFS is in good general agreement, although the euro has higher winds - up to 64KM.

Can you please do it one more time today or tomorrow? Obviously more than just me would want to see that. And please note i like the way you make it, very much. Good work!

[Shared Humanity]

Such an advanced melting ice stage is not compatible with 2-3 meters average thickness.

And, of course, this is not what the DMI is saying based on the color schemes. It is indicating the ice is mainly between .25 meters and 1.5 meters with a very small portion of it between 1.5 and 2 meters.

[deconstruct]

I like it! With a small modification:
Here is the 3-day LAMB (LAgging Minimum Bremen) map for 4 weeks ending Aug. 2nd:

That looks indeed very good. If used in an animation like that, it is much clearer.

[Sterks]

Such an advanced melting ice stage is not compatible with 2-3 meters average thickness.

And, of course, this is not what the DMI is saying based on the color schemes. It is indicating the ice is mainly between .25 meters and 1.5 meters with a very small portion of it between 1.5 and 2 meters.

Yes you are right. Forgive my distraction with the colors.
I better stay quiet now , will keep my thoughts to myself at least for a while

[deconstruct]

And, of course, this is not what the DMI is saying based on the color schemes. It is indicating the ice is mainly between .25 meters and 1.5 meters with a very small portion of it between 1.5 and 2 meters.

And in addition such a volume map only gives an average thickness for a quite large area. Within that area the ice is very likely not uniformly thick, but you might have thicker flows from MYI, ridged and therefore thicker younger ice, and in between you might have very thin first year ice, that can of course flash-melt, so that only the ticker flows will remain (but bringing ice concentration way down).

[F.Tnioli]

Here's couple more things which make PIOMAS latest report to look quite very strange:





Over 8°C anomalies in some (so far relatively small) areas of the Arctic is not something i remember seeing any often in the past. Record-low volume loss in 2nd half of July? Really? Something much unusual is going on. No jokes.

[Shared Humanity]

Here's couple more things which make PIOMAS latest report to look quite very strange:





Over 8°C anomalies in some (so far relatively small) areas of the Arctic is not something i remember seeing any often in the past. Record-low volume loss in 2nd half of July? Really? Something much unusual is going on. No jokes.

How in the world does an animation of ongoing melt in July when compared to the just released volume numbers from PIOMAS suggest in any way that something "unusual is going on"?

[F.Tnioli]

...
How in the world does an animation of ongoing melt in July when compared to the just released volume numbers from PIOMAS suggest in any way that something "unusual is going on"?

Visibly. That's how. I'm just eye-balling. That thickness is color-coded and i suspect... I might not be entirely sure... But i think i got it right... That i am not color-blind.

May be nothing unusual though, if to be serious. Eye-balling is not a proper way to numbers, i know, i know. Was just an opinion. It stands, though.

[RikW]

well, 8 degrees anomaly for a region that formerly was still frozen and now is melted isn't that weird. Yeah, it's a large anomaly, but it fits the changing state of the arctic.

And the volume animation is showing what is happening, it is melting/shrinking quickly. Based on worldview I'd say it is probably a little too optimistic about the state of the ice, I agree on that, but not that much off

[Shared Humanity]

You must have very highly calibrated eyeballs and the latest version cerebrum software uploads to process such detail and arrive at such a conclusion.

[Pavel]

Slow volume loss in July, but this energy have been accumulated by open waters and thereby warm SST. It's OK for me. But it will struggle to refreeze, ESS has open water since may.

[Shared Humanity]

Slow volume loss in July, but this energy have been accumulated by open waters and thereby warm SST. It's OK for me. But it will struggle to refreeze, ESS has open water since may.

I agree that this freeze season should be riveting....I will be here daily all winter.

[Pi26]

I agree that this freeze season should be riveting....I will be here daily all winter.

And where will you stay in october, november and december? 😎

[Tigertown]

Meanwhile, PIOMAS gives all-time-lowest volume loss during 2nd half of July. And 2nd-lowest whole July.[/b] On one hand, it's strange, due to much fragmented and thin state, some significant steering we had during July, and no lack of big positive SST anomalies on Pacific and Siberian sides. On the other hand, it follows the general trend for reduction of July volume loss (you lose less when there is less ice existing by the start in July, in the 1st place). Still, a bit too short.

I still blame the fact that there was a lack of movement. Like FOW said, the main pac was floating in its own meltwater for lack of disturbance. That is why even a little storm got things started again. The question now is whether other factors will work hard enough on the ice to compensate for the insolation as it dies down.

[oren]

I suggest not to give this "second-lowest July volume loss" thing too much meaning. Years with low volume tend to lose less, as a lot of the easy ice is already gone. 2012 was 3rd lowest, with a relatively small difference. It was still enough for 2012 to take back the lead, but it's not a huge move. In addition, IJIS loss during July and especially the 2nd half was relatively slow, and temperatures relatively cool with lots of clouds, so why expect PIOMAS to report an unusual melt? If anything, I consider this year's volume loss to be surprisingly resilient (and disturbing) in the face of such a slow July.
I would expect the 1st half of August to show above-usual melt, due to the recent storm with its flash melt, but if a GAC fails to arrive don't expect volume numbers to get back into the lead over 2012.

[Archimid]

 +1 oren

[Sterks]

The next 72 hours are going to be rough again, or continuing, for the broken, half-sunken pacific-side pack. Storm is not strong, but induced winds in the outer side of the storm are. Persistent highs at continents ensure these gradients.
Expecting the 12Z update to check out whether a strengthening of the storm looms.

[Quantum]

I've mentioned this before, but more and more I'm becoming convinced that a Baffin bay survival is possible this year. At the end of the melt season last year there were still a few icebergs in the Baffin bay but this year there is significantly more ice there. Although the Baffin is recognized as a peripheral region, survival is not unprecedented and was not uncommon in the eighties. It comes down to definitions more than anything else. How much ice does there have to be in the baffin bay for it to be described as a survival?

[FishOutofWater]

There was a strong surge of cold fresh water out of the Arctic that brought thick multiyear sea ice to the shores of coastal Canadian towns that rarely see thick sea ice. The source of the ice was suspected to be the Lincoln sea which apparently sent ice piled up off of NW Greenland through the open Nares strait.

Whereever it came from there was a large drainage of sea ice and relatively fresh, cold water towards the Labrador sea. That water is still flowing down the west side of Baffin bay. However, it is mixing with warm Atlantic water. The huge eddies visible on worldview show the mixing of the warm water with the ice water. The mixing is causing density currents and sinking. Heat and salt are rapidly melting the remaining sea ice. No sea ice will be left, only the icebergs will remain, in the next 30 days.

That's my take.

[deconstruct]

I've mentioned this before, but more and more I'm becoming convinced that a Baffin bay survival is possible this year. At the end of the melt season last year there were still a few icebergs in the Baffin bay but this year there is significantly more ice there.

What survival? There is already hardly any ice left. From the former 1.2 Mio km² there is now only 0.05 Mio left, so already 95% of it is gone. And the remaining ice is mostly thin rubble that will melt out anyway till the end of this season.
So, what difference would it make, if this year, 1% or less of the ice would survive, instead of 0% last year?

And icebergs have nothing to do with sea ice, they are calved glacier-ice and every real iceberg will survive any melt-season in that cold water anyway, because they are typically 50m thick or even multiple hundred meters thick and they may take several years to melt, even in water that is warmer than Baffin bay. So an ice-berg surviving is nothing special, but the norm.

[Ravenken]

Just loving these graphics, thank you! They provide excellent visual aids to understand what is going on with the ice.

(Probably way too much to even suggest but I would bookmark these if it happened they could be done daily and put on Neven's graphics page.)

As someone that does nothing to contribute I too would appreciate that effort.