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Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #250 on: June 25, 2017, 06:17:07 PM »
NSIDC compactness dropping muy rapido:
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

seaicesailor

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #251 on: June 26, 2017, 12:16:31 PM »
NSIDC compactness dropping muy rapido:
Late Dr. Slater forecast takes a similar plunge

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #252 on: June 26, 2017, 04:19:40 PM »
Area, calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration, keeps dropping fast, the epicenter now shifting to the CAA and the bordering CAB.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-06-25 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4454.6   -2.0    +9.6    854.2   -7.6   -65.1    670.0   +0.1   -23.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   649.0  -29.5  -172.4    158.7   -6.5  -241.0    535.7   -4.7   -61.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   602.1  -18.7   -86.2     14.1   +1.6    +8.5    549.3  -23.0  -348.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   726.2   -2.5   +13.5    347.0   -8.8  -126.4    294.0   -1.1  -174.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    15.7   +1.7   -26.9     58.5   +5.6   -14.5    215.8   +5.3   +90.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    11.8   +2.3    +8.6   9940.8  -93.2 -1300.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4063.4  -79.4   -60.7    643.5   +4.0   -99.1    438.1   +3.6   -78.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   392.3  -31.0  -212.5     88.7   -0.1  -135.5    318.4  -13.6   -25.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   377.1   +1.2   -47.9      3.9   -0.9    +2.3    266.1  -10.8  -282.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   501.4  -49.6   -26.2    177.4   -7.2  -183.7    181.5   +5.5  -185.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.3   -0.3    -8.7     15.2   -1.3   -11.7    107.9   -0.7   +44.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.8   +0.4    +2.7   7474.2 -179.2 -1352.3


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%

 

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #253 on: June 27, 2017, 05:01:01 PM »
Slow day according to the NSIDC sea ice concentration, area even had a small uptick. Most of that happened in the CAB where previous days losses rebound now.


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-06-26 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.3   +0.6   +10.6    844.5   -9.7   -75.1    651.9  -18.0   -36.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   658.7   +9.6  -159.0    169.0  +10.3  -221.3    558.1  +22.5   -33.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   580.7  -21.3   -97.9     10.9   -3.1    +5.3    545.6   -3.7  -331.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   728.7   +2.5   +18.7    347.8   +0.7  -122.0    284.2   -9.8  -180.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    14.0   -1.7   -28.3     51.1   -7.4   -21.6    233.3  +16.6  +106.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    12.5   +0.7    +9.0   9913.0  -27.8 -1263.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4140.0  +76.6   +28.4    609.7  -33.8  -130.8    416.5  -21.6   -94.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   407.8  +15.4  -186.1     91.4   +2.7  -125.5    314.4   -4.0   -22.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   366.6  -10.5   -43.6      2.7   -1.1    +1.1    261.0   -5.1  -265.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   467.9  -33.4   -51.6    204.8  +27.4  -151.2    189.1   +7.7  -174.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.0   -0.4    -8.7     17.0   +1.7    -9.9    115.0   +7.0   +51.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     4.1   +0.3    +2.9   7496.1  +21.9 -1232.6


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #254 on: June 28, 2017, 03:02:26 PM »
Extent resumes the fast drop, area stays behind.


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-06-27 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.3   +0.0   +11.2    841.3   -3.2   -77.9    669.9  +18.0   -17.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   629.2  -29.4  -183.4    160.5   -8.6  -222.6    553.7   -4.4   -29.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   522.2  -58.6  -144.5      3.6   -7.3    -2.5    515.4  -30.1  -339.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   711.8  -16.9    +2.3    347.2   -0.6  -122.2    269.2  -15.0  -190.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    17.0   +3.0   -23.6     55.1   +4.0   -17.3    221.4  -12.9   +93.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    12.5   -0.0    +9.3   9764.0 -149.1 -1348.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4153.8  +13.7   +56.9    597.9  -11.9  -136.9    411.6   -4.8   -95.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   396.6  -11.2  -188.6     87.2   -4.3  -124.2    307.1   -7.3   -21.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   326.7  -40.0   -73.3      1.1   -1.6    -0.6    237.5  -23.5  -268.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   473.2   +5.3   -40.3    225.2  +20.4  -126.1    195.6   +6.5  -160.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.3   +1.3    -6.6     15.7   -1.2   -10.7    106.7   -8.6   +43.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.9   -0.3    +2.8   7437.2  -58.9 -1193.6


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #255 on: June 29, 2017, 03:35:47 PM »
Century extent drop, most in the Hudson region, but only a small change in area.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-06-28 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.3   +0.0   +11.4    833.2   -8.1   -84.9    657.0  -12.9   -28.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   617.8  -11.4  -188.6    166.7   +6.3  -204.9    551.8   -1.9   -25.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   507.6  -14.5  -144.9      9.9   +6.2    +3.2    465.1  -50.3  -361.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   701.2  -10.6    -5.7    342.1   -5.1  -124.0    262.3   -6.9  -192.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    19.9   +2.9   -20.0     47.3   -7.8   -23.9    183.5  -37.9   +53.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     7.8   -4.7    +4.6   9645.0 -119.0 -1385.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4176.5  +22.7  +115.6    591.5   -6.3  -140.3    426.1  +14.5   -75.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   382.9  -13.7  -191.0     79.6   -7.6  -126.3    305.8   -1.3   -16.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   320.7   -5.9   -69.9      2.0   +0.9    +0.0    221.0  -16.5  -265.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   472.9   -0.2   -32.5    225.8   +0.6  -118.7    194.7   -0.9  -151.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.7   +0.4    -6.1     13.8   -1.9   -12.2    102.5   -4.1   +38.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.0   -0.9    +2.0   7421.1  -16.1 -1088.2


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #256 on: June 29, 2017, 03:43:54 PM »
Update of the Basin only graphics based on the NSIDC sea ice concentration. Extent is still the lowest ever (in the satellite era) but area is back in the common peloton. As before, Jaxa and Uni Hamburg see this different (not shown) where area 2017 is still a leader.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #257 on: June 30, 2017, 03:17:03 PM »
From NSIDC sea concentration I calculate another century drop in extent, a bit less in area.


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-06-29 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.9   +0.7   +12.9    826.8   -6.3   -91.6    657.1   +0.1   -25.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   601.5  -16.4  -199.3    153.0  -13.8  -210.2    545.6   -6.3   -29.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   482.9  -24.7  -155.9      7.3   -2.6    +1.1    435.1  -30.0  -368.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   707.3   +6.1    +2.4    326.9  -15.2  -136.3    259.1   -3.2  -189.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    11.1   -8.8   -27.9     55.5   +8.2   -14.0    151.2  -32.3   +21.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     6.1   -1.6    +3.0   9531.2 -113.8 -1428.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4166.7   -9.8  +140.5    582.6   -8.9  -146.8    445.2  +19.1   -47.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   374.5   -8.4  -188.7     69.3  -10.4  -130.1    299.6   -6.2   -17.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   297.4  -23.3   -79.7      1.4   -0.5    -0.2    206.2  -14.8  -258.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   483.9  +10.9   -14.0    211.7  -14.2  -126.0    178.0  -16.7  -160.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.4   -1.4    -6.8     14.0   +0.2   -11.1     92.9   -9.6   +28.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.5   -0.4    +1.6   7336.3  -84.8 -1044.6


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 11:16:00 AM by Wipneus »

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #258 on: June 30, 2017, 05:42:47 PM »
Hudson and Baffin continue to be 50% of SIE loss.

jplotinus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #259 on: June 30, 2017, 06:17:45 PM »
A chunk of ice off northeast tip of Severny Island has gone missing today, perhaps because of strong northwest wind, as reported for Dikson. So Baffin and Hudson may have some company in tomorrow's report.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #260 on: June 30, 2017, 07:22:56 PM »
And the rest of that ice looks like hell.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #261 on: July 01, 2017, 01:54:35 PM »
In comes another century extent loss, this time area loss is even bigger.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-06-30 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.9   +0.0   +15.2    820.4   -6.4   -97.0    629.4  -27.6   -53.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   610.5   +9.0  -182.8    133.6  -19.4  -189.4    544.8   -0.7   -13.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   488.2   +5.3  -134.7     16.1   +8.9   +14.8    387.2  -48.0  -393.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   701.7   -5.6    +0.6    318.8   -8.1  -141.5    251.7   -7.5  -191.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    13.4   +2.3    +8.0     43.5  -11.9   +38.0    149.4   -1.8   +13.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     5.6   -0.5    +5.3   9420.9 -110.3 -1316.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4105.2  -61.4  +125.3    562.6  -20.0  -155.8    441.0   -4.2   -53.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   372.3   -2.2  -181.5     70.7   +1.4  -112.0    305.5   +5.9    -0.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   290.4   -7.0   -75.3      3.7   +2.3    +3.2    177.3  -28.9  -268.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   474.0   -9.9   -24.9    203.5   -8.2  -133.4    165.6  -12.4  -163.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.6   +0.2    +2.1     12.1   -2.0   +10.8     89.3   -3.6   +23.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.4   -0.2    +2.3   7189.9 -146.5 -1025.2


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #262 on: July 01, 2017, 07:48:33 PM »
The dramatic drop in area in the CAB must be a sign of extensive melt ponds forming.

Pi26

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #263 on: July 01, 2017, 08:10:24 PM »
In comes another century extent loss, this time area loss is even
....
Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
East Siberian Sea
562.6  -20.0  -155.8   

ESS SIA - seems a fast growing dangerous burner gets tanked up as never before.
Anomaly could reach -200K km2 within a week?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 08:34:32 PM by Pi26 »

cesium62

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #264 on: July 01, 2017, 10:57:39 PM »
This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum

What is an "average minimum"?  For each day in september you go plus and minus 15 days to get a monthly average and then take the minimum of those 30 samples?

These are the September minimums for the last 12 years ...

    2012: 3.63


You used "September average" on the poll title, then said it was the "September average minimum", then gave data for the "September minimum"...  I'm a computer programmer and a math major, can we be more literal and consistent? ;D

Charctic says that the NSIDC 2012 September daily minimum was 3.387, so presumably we are consistently not talking about that.

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #265 on: July 01, 2017, 11:19:17 PM »
What is an "average minimum"? 

You're right, that's not very clear. I'll change that.

All I try to do, is explain that there are two polls, one for the September average (that month being the month of the minimum, when the Arctic sea ice pack is smallest) and one for the daily minimum. This is confusing to a lot of people, just like the difference between area and extent is.

The September average is best-known because the NSIDC has used it consistently for many years now (it's also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook). But people enjoy watching the changes on a daily basis and prefer not to wait until the first week of October to find out what the September minimum was. Hence the popularity of JAXA, formerly known as IJIS.

That's why we have a poll for both measures.
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Pi26

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #266 on: July 01, 2017, 11:37:26 PM »
This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum

What is an "average minimum"?  For each day in september you go plus and minus 15 days to get a monthly average and then take the minimum of those 30 samples?

These are the September minimums for the last 12 years ...

    2012: 3.63


You used "September average" on the poll title, then said it was the "September average minimum", then gave data for the "September minimum"...  I'm a computer programmer and a math major, can we be more literal and consistent? ;D

Charctic says that the NSIDC 2012 September daily minimum was 3.387, so presumably we are consistently not talking about that.

I could not find that comment of Neven within this thread, even if he answered you here COMPLETLY OFFTOPIC ;)
But then I found (probably inspired by Adam Riese) you tried to post into another thread?:o ::

Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll

« Last Edit: July 02, 2017, 12:01:13 AM by Pi26 »

Jim Williams

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #267 on: July 02, 2017, 12:38:04 AM »
What is an "average minimum"? 

You're right, that's not very clear. I'll change that.

All I try to do, is explain that there are two polls, one for the September average (that month being the month of the minimum, when the Arctic sea ice pack is smallest) and one for the daily minimum. This is confusing to a lot of people, just like the difference between area and extent is.

The September average is best-known because the NSIDC has used it consistently for many years now (it's also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook). But people enjoy watching the changes on a daily basis and prefer not to wait until the first week of October to find out what the September minimum was. Hence the popularity of JAXA, formerly known as IJIS.

That's why we have a poll for both measures.

What about if the minimum average and/or minimum is in October, not September?

cesium62

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #268 on: July 02, 2017, 06:43:46 AM »
I could not find that comment of Neven within this thread, even if he answered you here COMPLETLY OFFTOPIC ;)

[The message I was quoting referenced this thread, and seemed to strongly caution against going off-topic in the polling thread.  Arguably, I was discussing the definition of the data and not the poll.  In any event, yes, I'm not so good at figuring out the precise boundaries of each topic.]

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #269 on: July 02, 2017, 09:20:35 AM »
What about if the minimum average and/or minimum is in October, not September?

I'll change the text again when that happens.

But yes, the poll thread would be the right place to discuss nomenclature and definitions, as this thread is about sea ice area and extent data.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #270 on: July 02, 2017, 02:27:47 PM »
Update for the week to July 1st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 9,521,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,244,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,420,000km2, an increase from -1,213,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -160,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -98.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -69.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -100.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -88.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -131.5k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 4th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 113.6k/day is required (more than -111.8k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 63.3k/day (less than 58.0k/day with single day values) and an average loss a drop of 85.2k/day (81.4k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in June was the 4th largest on record while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.



« Last Edit: July 02, 2017, 09:02:58 PM by BornFromTheVoid »

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #271 on: July 02, 2017, 03:13:57 PM »
9,244k is almost a double century...

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #272 on: July 02, 2017, 05:02:17 PM »
Now that June is over, here's a graph of sea ice area anomaly.  I used the sea ice area numbers that Wipneus reports daily in this thread (which he calculates from NSIDC sea ice concentration data)  with values for previous years here.  I smoothed the data by using 5-day running averages.  Sea ice area is currently 6th lowest for the date.  The June 2017 monthly average was also 6th lowest.

« Last Edit: July 02, 2017, 05:19:43 PM by Steven »

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #273 on: July 02, 2017, 06:09:56 PM »
First of the month effect makes the drops extra large, by perhaps -30k extent and -10k area. Still big number though.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-01 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4456.6   +0.7   +14.3    809.1  -11.3  -106.4    615.9  -13.6   -63.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   602.6   -7.8  -184.4    125.8   -7.8  -191.6    548.4   +3.5    -9.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   459.6  -28.6  -149.7      7.8   -8.4    +7.6    348.1  -39.1  -416.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   696.2   -5.6    -6.3    303.0  -15.8  -151.5    246.5   -5.2  -192.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     5.4   -8.0    +0.7     16.5  -27.0   +14.7    138.7  -11.1    +2.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   -2.7    +2.9   9244.3 -176.6 -1432.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4059.7  -45.6   +98.6    541.1  -21.6  -167.6    426.2  -14.9   -66.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   352.2  -20.0  -192.9     66.6   -4.1  -109.7    310.5   +5.1    +7.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   272.3  -18.2   -82.4      2.0   -1.7    +1.9    166.3  -10.9  -259.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   480.8   +6.8   -22.5    188.2  -15.3  -143.3    168.0   +2.4  -155.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.3   -1.2    +1.1      3.7   -8.4    +3.1     80.4   -8.8   +14.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.1   -0.3    +2.1   7042.0 -147.8 -1085.0


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Jim Williams

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #274 on: July 02, 2017, 06:16:37 PM »
What about if the minimum average and/or minimum is in October, not September?

I'll change the text again when that happens.

But yes, the poll thread would be the right place to discuss nomenclature and definitions, as this thread is about sea ice area and extent data.

Fine, but I will be watching the area and extent on December 31, since I think whenever the end comes the time of year isn't going to matter.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #275 on: July 02, 2017, 08:58:30 PM »
BFTV's graph (duplicated here) suggests this first week of July is frequently the fastest melt week of the season.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #276 on: July 03, 2017, 03:01:00 AM »
Saw this at Reddit, I thought you might appreciate it. It is a novel visualization of Global, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area from 1978 til present.

http://i.imgur.com/jZJz6Tq.gifv
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magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #277 on: July 03, 2017, 02:26:22 PM »
Saw this at Reddit, I thought you might appreciate it. It is a novel visualization of Global, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area from 1978 til present.

http://i.imgur.com/jZJz6Tq.gifv


great find, thanks a lot, tells it all which is why weekly and regional details are irrelevant. it's permanently getting closer to the center with seasonal and yearly variations of course. nothing else matters.

EDIT: hope thanking people is welcome here, despite "ad nauseam" LOL
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #278 on: July 03, 2017, 03:00:47 PM »
Extent did not manage another century, more than compensated by the drop in area: large concentration losses in the CAB and ESS.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-02 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.3   -1.3   +12.6    775.0  -34.1  -138.1    627.4  +11.5   -48.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   593.0   -9.6  -191.2    127.1   +1.3  -181.6    518.7  -29.7   -36.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   455.0   -4.6  -142.3      8.3   +0.5    +8.3    342.3   -5.8  -402.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   691.1   -5.0   -10.6    289.8  -13.2  -159.8    244.1   -2.4  -187.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     7.8   +2.4    +3.0     15.8   -0.7   +15.8    156.2  +16.0   +20.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   9153.6  -90.7 -1455.9

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4005.0  -54.6   +64.5    487.0  -54.0  -215.0    429.5   +3.3   -57.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   343.1   -9.1  -192.3     66.3   -0.3  -102.0    292.0  -18.5    -4.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   264.9   -7.4   -80.6      2.3   +0.3    +2.3    159.1   -7.2  -250.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   466.8  -14.0   -40.7    170.9  -17.2  -153.2    169.3   +1.2  -147.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.7   +0.4    +1.5      3.7   -0.0    +3.6     88.9   +8.1   +22.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.1    +2.2   6864.7 -177.3 -1169.6


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #279 on: July 04, 2017, 02:14:14 PM »
Once again, I throw in some numbers. Jaxa data as at July 3.

The first little table is a projection of what has to happen for various results. Despite the increase in daily melt recently, nothing really changes. A second lowest minimum looks eminently possible, a record low increasingly unlikely.
The magic 1 million km2 would require remaining melt to be 66% greater than the 2007-16 average remaining melt, over 3 times the variation from the average in the Great Leap Forward of 2012 (19%).

The second table just looks at melt to date and remaining melt over the years. On average, 53% of melting happened by July 3. 2012 looks like an outlier for the melt achieved in the remainder of the season.

Unless the condition of the ice this year is fundamentally, dramatically, different then it still looks like a case of the slow-motion train wreck continuing.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 02:20:32 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #280 on: July 04, 2017, 03:12:51 PM »
Moderate extent drop, but area declined strongly. CAB area scored a single region century, indicating widespread surface melting.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-03 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4454.6   -0.6   +12.3    786.6  +11.6  -125.5    617.8   -9.6   -58.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   595.6   +2.5  -183.0    130.3   +3.2  -171.9    505.6  -13.0   -40.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   453.6   -1.5  -133.3      5.7   -2.6    +5.7    315.6  -26.7  -408.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   676.8  -14.3   -26.5    275.9  -13.9  -168.3    241.0   -3.0  -183.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     6.6   -1.2    +1.9     18.2   +2.4   +18.2    169.1  +12.9   +32.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   9086.7  -66.8 -1458.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3892.8 -112.2   -37.2    477.0  -10.0  -216.0    436.7   +7.2   -44.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   339.2   -4.0  -188.2     68.3   +2.0   -94.2    288.3   -3.7    -0.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   267.4   +2.5   -70.3      1.5   -0.8    +1.5    147.2  -11.9  -246.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   444.2  -22.6   -66.3    170.9   -0.1  -149.1    160.2   -9.1  -146.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.6   -0.1    +1.4      4.6   +0.9    +4.6     89.1   +0.3   +23.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.0    +2.2   6703.0 -161.8 -1249.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #281 on: July 04, 2017, 03:19:25 PM »


Unless the condition of the ice this year is fundamentally, dramatically, different then it still looks like a case of the slow-motion train wreck continuing.

Given the impossibly warm winter, the resulting anomalously low volume and the increasingly fractured and mobile nature of the sea ice, I believe that is exactly what we have.

That being said, I agree that a 2nd place finish in extent is most likely.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #282 on: July 04, 2017, 05:25:21 PM »
Given the impossibly warm winter, the resulting anomalously low volume and the increasingly fractured and mobile nature of the sea ice, I believe that is exactly what we have.

That being said, I agree that a 2nd place finish in extent is most likely.

well possible but most likely implies that chances for a new low would be close to none and that i would not sign. nevertheless, nobody can predict that (wheather ? ) so i agree to a 50% chance for second place but not to the close to exclusion of a new low.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 10:12:25 PM by magnamentis »
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #283 on: July 04, 2017, 07:45:14 PM »
<snip, off-topic, and yet again, I would like to urge others as well to stay on-topic, be short if possible, and do not be lazy when quoting others, but cut out everything except the thing you're responding to; N.>
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 10:05:50 PM by Neven »

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #284 on: July 04, 2017, 10:44:55 PM »
Moderate extent drop, but area declined strongly. CAB area scored a single region century, indicating widespread surface melting.

And so the 2017 trend line on the compactness graph drops to the middle of the pack (again):
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Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #285 on: July 05, 2017, 06:55:48 PM »
Another century extent drop, near century in area. Hudson still accounts for nearly half of the total drop in extent.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-04 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4454.0   -0.6   +12.8    772.6  -14.0  -136.2    617.8   -0.0   -56.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   592.3   -3.2  -180.2    115.4  -14.9  -180.5    497.5   -8.1   -41.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   424.1  -29.4  -154.3      8.3   +2.6    +8.3    266.7  -48.9  -437.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   669.0   -7.9   -34.6    281.6   +5.7  -159.1    240.2   -0.8  -179.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     9.0   +2.4    +4.5     11.4   -6.8   +11.4    199.6  +29.0   +60.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8962.8 -124.0 -1520.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3838.4  -54.4   -76.0    473.6   -3.4  -210.8    449.3  +12.6   -29.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   335.7   -3.5  -184.0     57.1  -11.2  -101.0    281.3   -7.0    -1.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   253.7  -13.7   -75.1      1.9   +0.4    +1.9    134.0  -13.2  -242.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   451.0   +6.8   -63.4    171.3   +0.4  -147.6    154.9   -5.2  -142.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.2   -0.4    +1.0      2.8   -1.7    +2.8     99.0   +9.6   +32.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.1   -0.1    +2.1   6609.4  -93.6 -1266.7


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #286 on: July 06, 2017, 02:56:51 PM »
Contrasting Data (JAXA).
Extent is still reducing somewhat below 2007-2016 average. (by about 240,000 km2 to July 5).
Record low looking less likely day by day if previous years are any guide. See Table below.

But Jaxa AMSR2 volume graph shows very impressive volume reduction since mid-June.
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oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #287 on: July 06, 2017, 03:07:27 PM »
The 1 million goal is "impossible" but the 2012 goal not so. 2012 had a freak August extent loss, on ~average volume loss, as posted in one of threads recently. The reason, besides good regional distribution, was the ice was thin coming out of June/July, and a good blow wiped a lot of it. So it could be claimed that the real freak was the early volume loss, and that the later loss was somewhat predictable.
When I'm back at a computer next weekend I will try to dig up some numbers to see if this can be substantiated.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #288 on: July 06, 2017, 06:45:27 PM »
Also NSIDC sea ice concentration makes drops in area and extent smaller than the past few days.


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-05 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4446.9   -7.1    +6.6    765.0   -7.5  -142.3    616.4   -1.3   -54.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   587.7   -4.7  -172.7    103.7  -11.7  -184.9    519.8  +22.3   -10.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   409.6  -14.5  -154.6      4.6   -3.7    +4.6    257.2   -9.4  -423.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   665.0   -3.9   -34.5    275.9   -5.7  -160.5    229.0  -11.2  -183.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    14.4   +5.4    +9.5     11.6   +0.2   +11.6    169.1  -30.0   +30.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8909.9  -52.8 -1486.0

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3899.4  +61.0    -4.6    470.9   -2.7  -208.0    429.7  -19.6   -49.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   330.5   -5.2  -177.1     49.3   -7.8  -105.1    287.1   +5.8   +11.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   246.4   -7.2   -67.9      1.2   -0.8    +1.2    122.8  -11.2  -236.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   446.1   -4.9   -64.9    162.5   -8.8  -150.1    135.6  -19.4  -156.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.7   +1.5    +2.4      2.8   -0.0    +2.8     92.4   -6.5   +27.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.1    +2.2   6590.2  -19.1 -1200.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #289 on: July 06, 2017, 07:49:21 PM »
now that hudson is almost void of ice, at least larger areas of it, we probably have to wait for other regions to gain a similar momentum which of course will happen but still the lack of ice to melt there would explain at least parts of today's slowdown.

still the drop was not out of the ordinary small in extent and area fluctuates heavily anyways, a bit of sweet water overfreezing in a cloudy and/or cool area and already it looks different for some time and will resume like before within some time to come.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #290 on: July 07, 2017, 02:01:58 PM »
The 1 million goal is "impossible" but the 2012 goal not so. 2012 had a freak August extent loss, on ~average volume loss, as posted in one of threads recently. The reason, besides good regional distribution, was the ice was thin coming out of June/July, and a good blow wiped a lot of it. So it could be claimed that the real freak was the early volume loss, and that the later loss was somewhat predictable.
When I'm back at a computer next weekend I will try to dig up some numbers to see if this can be substantiated.
Hullo Oren,
I hope you can do the number business. I guess one day I will have to expand my data collection from just Jaxa Extent to include some volume data, as it is the volume loss to extent loss inconsistency that has to break sometime. Meanwhile some more JAXA numbers before I go to sleep over the weekend.

After the less than average 66,000 drop in extent on July 6, total melt this year of 5.37 million km2 is now 270,000 km2 (4.8%) less than the 2007-16 average. The table below shows that melt has to increase that bit more for even a second lowest minimum. Each day gone is nearly 1.5% of the remaining melt season gone. I have also posted again the chart of daily melt average over the last 10 years, 2012, and 2017 to date, mostly to show the weirdness of 2012.
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Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #291 on: July 07, 2017, 06:24:59 PM »
Area went fast downward again today, not far from a double century. Much of it within the Basin.

The extent drops are in comparison moderate.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-06 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.3   +8.4   +15.2    747.9  -17.2  -157.9    610.6   -5.8   -56.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   590.3   +2.6  -161.7    103.7   -0.0  -177.0    499.2  -20.6   -21.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   401.6   -8.0  -147.3      5.7   +1.1    +5.7    282.4  +25.2  -365.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   646.9  -18.1   -51.2    259.5  -16.4  -174.7    213.0  -16.0  -195.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    14.5   +0.0    +9.0     12.0   +0.4   +12.0    151.4  -17.8   +14.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8845.5  -64.5 -1463.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3840.8  -58.5   -46.3    437.7  -33.2  -238.0    406.0  -23.7   -67.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   308.9  -21.6  -189.5     54.1   +4.8   -94.5    268.4  -18.7    +3.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   229.9  -16.6   -73.8      1.4   +0.2    +1.4    124.2   +1.4  -216.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   455.0   +8.9   -55.3    149.7  -12.9  -157.7    122.7  -12.9  -165.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.0   +0.4    +2.6      3.1   +0.3    +3.1     89.0   -3.7   +24.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.0    +2.2   6408.0 -182.2 -1292.8


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

greatdying2

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #292 on: July 07, 2017, 08:43:18 PM »
The extent drops are in comparison moderate.

Extent drops where it counts were strong: ESS, Chukchi, Beaufort. The +25 in Hudson is here today, gone tomorrow -- just a blip.

The CAA seems to have a region that the algorithm has trouble with, that today is a big red dot accounting for much of the -18 drop in that region, but looking back at recent photos alternates between big extent increases and decreases. In reality, that spot is largely melted out and going fast, but not that fast. (The attached image from Worldview yesterday -- today it is cloudy there). Does anyone know why the prediction algorithm has such trouble here?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #293 on: July 08, 2017, 06:17:23 PM »
GD2: yes Hudson cleared today, and the CAA somewhere between fully frozen and mostly melted is difficult for the rather low resolution NSIDC data. Note that area is much less affected, but has its own peculiarities.

Meanwhile fat centuries for the day.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-07 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4450.1   -5.1    +9.3    743.6   -4.2  -160.3    597.1  -13.6   -68.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   569.2  -21.1  -168.5    105.6   +2.0  -167.2    490.9   -8.3   -26.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   394.2   -7.4  -138.9      5.7   +0.0    +5.7    248.2  -34.3  -374.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   614.7  -32.2   -82.8    250.7   -8.9  -180.9    225.7  +12.8  -177.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     6.0   -8.4    +1.4     17.6   +5.6   +17.6    158.5   +7.1   +23.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8722.3 -123.1 -1508.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3782.9  -57.9   -85.2    422.0  -15.7  -246.6    403.8   -2.2   -59.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   297.5  -11.4  -185.3     53.1   -0.9   -89.5    253.4  -15.1    -8.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   223.2   -6.7   -69.2      1.6   +0.2    +1.6    115.9   -8.3  -202.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   422.9  -32.1   -84.9    132.0  -17.6  -172.8    113.0   -9.7  -171.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.3   -1.8    +1.1      3.7   +0.6    +3.7     91.7   +2.8   +29.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.0    +2.2   6229.4 -178.6 -1367.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

seaicesailor

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #294 on: July 08, 2017, 06:58:01 PM »
All this with a 982 hPa in the middle of it all... impressive.
Compactness definitely down, leaving 2013/2014 league, next days most interesting

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #295 on: July 08, 2017, 08:41:13 PM »
The Pacific side of the CAB looks weak all the way to the pole. The Atlantic side looks relatively strong due to the migration of the thicker ice. What are the chances we'll see an alarming end state for this melt season with the Pacific side of the CAB nearly ice free?

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #296 on: July 08, 2017, 11:36:59 PM »
All this with a 982 hPa in the middle of it all... impressive.
Compactness definitely down, leaving 2013/2014 league, next days most interesting

Indeed, keeping apace with 2015 and 2016 now:
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #297 on: July 09, 2017, 03:30:31 PM »
JAXA AMSR2 volume below 6,000 km3.
Jaxa sea ice thickness graph shows ice in terrible state except for Atlantic border region.

BUT:-
JAXA sea ice extent losses in July so far well below average. If 2017 follows the last 10 year average (which of course it won't) 58% of the melt has already happened.

The chances of a record minimum have reduced (see table below).

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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #298 on: July 09, 2017, 05:06:19 PM »
Update for the week to July 7th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,824,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,681,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,498,000km2, an increase from -1,420,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +63,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -99.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -88.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -131.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -81.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -111.6k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 117.9k/day is required (more than -122.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 52.3k/day (less than 50.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 80.8k/day (81.7k/day with single day values).


Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #299 on: July 09, 2017, 06:24:49 PM »
An extent drop of "only" 42k brings 2017 in third lowest position after 2011 and 2012. The -71k drop in area is almost entirely caused by the CAB.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-08 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.3   +5.1   +15.4    730.9  -12.7  -167.9    600.9   +3.9   -61.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   542.9  -26.3  -183.3    100.1   -5.6  -164.2    484.3   -6.6   -30.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   376.9  -17.3  -147.6      4.7   -1.0    +4.7    268.1  +19.9  -333.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   621.7   +7.0   -75.1    252.6   +1.9  -177.6    214.4  -11.3  -184.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     9.0   +2.9    +4.2     16.0   -1.7   +16.0    200.9  +42.5   +68.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8680.7  -41.6 -1482.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3721.1  -61.9  -122.7    419.5   -2.5  -241.9    432.3  +28.4   -29.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   286.2  -11.3  -178.0     47.2   -5.9   -89.7    247.6   -5.8   -11.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   221.7   -1.5   -62.1      1.3   -0.3    +1.3    114.3   -1.7  -189.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   408.4  -14.5   -95.0    130.5   -1.5  -175.3    120.3   +7.3  -158.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.9   -0.3    +0.7      3.6   -0.1    +3.6    103.2  +11.6   +41.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.0    +2.2   6158.0  -71.4 -1345.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.