Morning James,
I have doubts about my poll prediction too.
When I count in what I (non-scientifically) call ‘winter-power’, based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, this winter wasn’t what the sea ice needed to withstand further desintegration.
Secondly, the fragmentation during Feb-March, so well documented by A-Team a.o., produced some new FYI, albeit the structural weakness it created will enhance summer melt.
Third, an argument brought in FI by Chris Reynolds, the ice now consists mainly of FYI. My rough calc is that this counts for 95% of the 13.7 Mkm2 pack at 10042013.
Last year, based on that winter, I suggested the largest melt through spring in the satellite era, melt out of the Svalbard/Severnaya Zemlya sector and a record loss.
So why not again?
I’ve been closely following global weather patterns since last September. I’m influenced by several aspects.
One, the storage of heat in deeper ocean layers, accomodated through a flipflopping ENSO/THC. The sea level rise in line with that.
Two, the distribution of SST anomaly: positive in the central Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and the sub-Antarctic region. Also, the AO period has brought SST’s in the Barentsz Sea further down than we were used to in the last years.
Three, continued blocking events and a reversed AO (positive) could in the context help shifting the brunt of climate change consequences to other regions, affecting the Arctic less exclusive as last year (but still ravaging southern Greenland, I fear).
I hate to be a pessimist for such regions. But I hold my breath for the mid-latitudes, the Caribbean, Southern Asia this summer. On top of that, I wonder what winter Antarctica will experience (anomalously warm?).