2017 ENSO

[AbruptSLR]

As it is 2017, I thought it time to open a new ENSO thread & I start by noting the per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.3:

[jai mitchell]

timely, the rapid reduction of SE Asian aerosols portends a shift to stronger +PDO with a higher probability for weaker La Ninas/Stronger El Ninos

as you posted here in the Aerosols thread:  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg80923.html#msg80923

with reference paper here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3058.html
and further discussion found here: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/06/23/aerosol-forcing-and-the-pdo/

attached graphic is my update to the consumption graph.  The Asian aerosol curve roughly fits this coal consumption graph, the first 6 months of 2016 with an ~10% decline in consumption, as reported by China, was added by me.  This reduction was primarily driven by economic contraction and the shuttering of less efficient (lower combustion temp) coal power plants.  Note that increased retrofits of industrial activities have further reduced aerosols from this sector but the largest impact to emissions appears to be caused by a decline in the production of Pig Iron due to massive overproduction stockpiles.

The transformation of our climate away from the 'pause' to rapid warming is directly correlated to the flat time-rate change of emissions from China.  As the rate of increase slowed and stopped we began to see the rapid transformation of NH weather patterns, now that it has gone into decline, we will continue to see the increase of warming rates catch up to the emissions of 7 years ago AND with WV and Lapse Rate feedbacks increasing due to forcing increases as SO2 continues to decline globally.

It would not surprise me to find us going into a new, moderate El Nino by next December and a semi-permanent El Nino state by mid 2019.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi jd!
I've been talking, in other forums, about the impacts of recent 'dimming' and how quickly they will 'fall away' compared to the fall off when the western nations engaged on their 'clean air' acts.

The west had to develop technologies to deal with the issue whereas China can buy off the shelf and so show near instant results( for over two decades the UK has been aiding China with 'scrubber technology' for their smoke stacks but their growth side lined such efforts?).

Seven years for SO2 to drop out but soot is washed out with the first rains. So we see instant results and the 2014 'flip' in both IPO and PDO may well mark just how strongly the old impacts were skewing the Pacific basin ( leading to the imbalance we saw between tropical Atlantic/Pacific?)

I'm waiting for 2017 global temps to see just how strongly we are now warming as I believe this is only set to increase so 2016's 'Nino' high may only take a few years to overtake.

Disclaimer: If we go blue Ocean in 2017 all bets are off!!!

[Csnavywx]

timely, the rapid reduction of SE Asian aerosols portends a shift to stronger +PDO with a higher probability for weaker La Ninas/Stronger El Ninos

as you posted here in the Aerosols thread:  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg80923.html#msg80923

with reference paper here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3058.html
and further discussion found here: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/06/23/aerosol-forcing-and-the-pdo/

attached graphic is my update to the consumption graph.  The Asian aerosol curve roughly fits this coal consumption graph, the first 6 months of 2016 with an ~10% decline in consumption, as reported by China, was added by me.  This reduction was primarily driven by economic contraction and the shuttering of less efficient (lower combustion temp) coal power plants.  Note that increased retrofits of industrial activities have further reduced aerosols from this sector but the largest impact to emissions appears to be caused by a decline in the production of Pig Iron due to massive overproduction stockpiles.

The transformation of our climate away from the 'pause' to rapid warming is directly correlated to the flat time-rate change of emissions from China.  As the rate of increase slowed and stopped we began to see the rapid transformation of NH weather patterns, now that it has gone into decline, we will continue to see the increase of warming rates catch up to the emissions of 7 years ago AND with WV and Lapse Rate feedbacks increasing due to forcing increases as SO2 continues to decline globally.

It would not surprise me to find us going into a new, moderate El Nino by next December and a semi-permanent El Nino state by mid 2019.

The first half of 2016 dropped, but there's every reason to believe that it rebounded in the last two quarters as supplies got squeezed hard and the price shot up massively. This has led to increases in mining days in the latter half of the year (especially this fall) as they scrambled to fill the shortfall. Your point largely still stands, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a toothsaw pattern in aerosol output as it decreases (especially considering India's increases in coal usage).

[ArcticMelt]

http://meteomodel.pl/index.php/enso

Forecast.

[jai mitchell]

this was what keyed me into the guidance on future ENSO expectations.

 

FWIW re: china https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/9461-China-coal-consumption-not-rebounding-despite-price-increase/en

And in the long run, demand in these sectors will continue to fall. China has tightened regulation in the thermal power sector, which accounts for around half of its coal consumption. Crude steel capacity will be cut by 12% to 19% in the next five years, which will lead to a decline in coal demand. And in the construction materials sector, demand for coal has already begun to peak and will gradually decline.

[AbruptSLR]

Both of the images were issued today (Jan 7 2017).  The first image shows the TAO subsurface temp and temp anom profiles for the Eq Pac, and show a small tongue of warm water moving eastward at depth from the Western Pacific.  The second image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, indicates that this warm tongue of deep water has restored this metric back to zero.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.2:

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas5.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Outlooks

Looks like folk are looking to a near/mild Nino forming over the summer 2017? How does this fit in with the QBO refusing to run easterly?

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.5:

20161209,20170107,6.5

[Csnavywx]

FWIW re: china https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/9461-China-coal-consumption-not-rebounding-despite-price-increase/en

Actually, that shows a 10% drop in output but only a 2.4% drop in consumption (missing the last quarter of course). They don't say whether the 3Q estimate for 2016 is annualized, but typically estimates of that sort are -- so that's a slower decline than either of the last 2 years. Interestingly, they see coal demand stabilizing where it is for the next few years -- right around 4 bn tonnes. Some of the slowing this year is due to the unraveling of the hydropower "bonus" that they were getting the past couple of years due to high rainfall.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino index plots were all issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 8 2017 and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of these plots indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

The following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on Jan 4 2017, indicates that the weekly Nino 3.4 has drifted down to -0.5C:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2
 07DEC2016     22.8 0.3     24.6-0.5     26.0-0.6     28.3-0.2
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1

The first two attached plots were issued today by the BoM with weekly index values through the week ending Jan 8 2017 (showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively), and indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions.

The third and four images were issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac. and show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  These plot indicate a general slow warming trend.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved to +7.3:

[Csnavywx]

Subsurface temps clearly indicate this Nina is entering the decay phase. 3.4 temps have already begun to respond. We might see some more fluctuations over the next month or so with trade wind bursts, but it should be steady decay after that. A bigger question is whether or not we rebound into a Nino or stay in warm-neutral territory.

The CFS is actually on the lower end of the guidance at this point:

NMME:



And the ECMWF:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.1:

[Darvince]

And the ECMWF:

The ECMWF plot is giving a 404 error and consequently not showing on the forum, could you try uploading it?

[jai mitchell]

Subsurface temps clearly indicate this Nina is entering the decay phase. 3.4 temps have already begun to respond. We might see some more fluctuations over the next month or so with trade wind bursts, but it should be steady decay after that. A bigger question is whether or not we rebound into a Nino or stay in warm-neutral territory.

The CFS is actually on the lower end of the guidance at this point:

NMME:



And the ECMWF:

interesting times, if the trend continues to move up in the models, we could very easily see a new El Nino by December that is equal or greater than the 2015/2016 event!

[Lord M Vader]

There is absolutely NO way that we will see an El Niño of equal or greater magnitude by December! At best, a weak El Niño might emerge by fall butnot more than that IMO. And remember that we will rather soon enter the spring predictability barrier when the forecast skill is of low confidence.

Personally, I think we willhead for a warm neutral year followed by WWBs by spring 2018 which will result in a moderate or weakly strong event.

Finally, JISAO reports a PDO-value at +1,17 for December which means that the three last years all have had positive values.

Best, LMV

[wehappyfew]

It would be nice to see a retrospective comparison of the accuracy of these forecasts over the last 2 years. My impression from looking at the CFSv2 is that they have been consistently low - that is, they forecast more ENSO negative than actually occurs.

The reason I ask about the last two years is that I am wondering if the switch to PDO positive phase, which favors El Nino development over La Nina, has been pushing the results more positive than forecasted.

If so, then a back-to-back repeat El Nino, like the 1940's - which had a similar positive PDO phase - might be more likely. There were actually 3 in a row - 39/40, 40/41, 41/42. If that happens.... yikes!

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.0:

[Csnavywx]

And the ECMWF:

The ECMWF plot is giving a 404 error and consequently not showing on the forum, could you try uploading it?

Sure:

[Csnavywx]

There is absolutely NO way that we will see an El Niño of equal or greater magnitude by December! At best, a weak El Niño might emerge by fall butnot more than that IMO. And remember that we will rather soon enter the spring predictability barrier when the forecast skill is of low confidence.

Personally, I think we willhead for a warm neutral year followed by WWBs by spring 2018 which will result in a moderate or weakly strong event.

Finally, JISAO reports a PDO-value at +1,17 for December which means that the three last years all have had positive values.

Best, LMV

[Csnavywx]

Keep in mind that for the Super Nino, the EC picked up on it slightly in Jan and really keyed in on it in Feb/Mar 2015. Not saying we're gonna have one this year (that would be incredible), but having a decent rebound Nino isn't out of the question at all.

[jai mitchell]

LV,

thanks, yes you are right that would be very unexpected.  Looking at previous low-estimates of the models to final SST values, I would expect a nino 3.4 index around +1.5 by the end of December.  However, I am also considering that the rapid removal of SE Asian aerosols will drive the deviation (low) of the models even further from the final actual values.

So if this occurs, and there is a high probability that it will.  then the Nino 3.4 index will be between 1.9 and 2.5 in December.  Of course anything can happen between now and then.  That is just how it looks right now (to me).

[Lord M Vader]

Dr. Philip Klotzbach is tweeting that the latest forecast from NOAA indicates a 35% likelihood of a new El Niño by fall and a 50% chance of neutral conditions:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/819575986404532224

[Archimid]

The world is in a warmer state and with less ice than the last strong el niño. Even neutral conditions on a warmer planet may be enough to keep the atmospheric changes going for too long. I think el niño is a small but important part of the recent warming but the PDO is a greater contributor to atmospheric temperatures.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

When I see that graph I notice that the PDO has been positive for the last 4 year. Before that during the time of the "hiatus" and following the 1998 el niño it was consistently negative. Historically 4 years would be a short time period for a consistently positive PDO. From that graph it seems that when it goes positive it tends to do so for a decade or more.  So I expect for it to continue being positive and possibly strengthening for a while longer.

As I understand it, during +PDO el niño are more likely and stronger. So it shouldn't be surprising to get an el niño. Worst case scenario would be that the last el niño wasn't a super el niño at all and the real super el niño shows its ugly face in the next 5 years but unlikely next year.

[Csnavywx]

Well, we're still stuck with a moderate +PDO after a Nina, so the odds certainly favor a new Nino in that regard. Question is how strong. If it's going to be strong this fall, we'll need to start seeing WWBs in a 2-3. Bjernkes feedback takes time to get going.

[Gray-Wolf]

Worst case scenario would be that the last el niño wasn't a super el niño at all and the real super el niño shows its ugly face in the next 5 years but unlikely next year.

I do not think the last Nino was 'super'. For the years leading up to it ( and 2 failed 'starts' that were pushed down by 'odd trades'?) Global Ocean temps were pushing record/near record warm years. Low ice placed 'new energy' into the system as open water accepted the solar that ice cover would have bounced back into space. Asian 'dimming' is also is reducing allowing more and more solar back down to the surface where it can be re-radiated and held onto by increasing GHG forcings.

Had we not seen the 'false starts' then the record warm pool that was out west in 2014 would have produced a 'super nino' but we were spared. I thought that 2018/19 would be our next Nino ( if PDO kept positive?) so talk of a nino this year is surprising to me? Warmed ocean ,north and south of the regions, may well 'bleed into' the regions and aid temps there pushing near nino data but will the atmosphere comply?

Let's see if we see any WWB's over the next few months.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.3:

[Lord M Vader]

The current strong easterly trades are forecasted to abate furing the next couple of day. By the middle of next week the Eastern Pacific looks like it will see normal trade winds which mean that the Niño 3.4-values should rise further more. 

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.5:

[Csnavywx]

Worst case scenario would be that the last el niño wasn't a super el niño at all and the real super el niño shows its ugly face in the next 5 years but unlikely next year.

I do not think the last Nino was 'super'. For the years leading up to it ( and 2 failed 'starts' that were pushed down by 'odd trades'?) Global Ocean temps were pushing record/near record warm years. Low ice placed 'new energy' into the system as open water accepted the solar that ice cover would have bounced back into space. Asian 'dimming' is also is reducing allowing more and more solar back down to the surface where it can be re-radiated and held onto by increasing GHG forcings.

Had we not seen the 'false starts' then the record warm pool that was out west in 2014 would have produced a 'super nino' but we were spared. I thought that 2018/19 would be our next Nino ( if PDO kept positive?) so talk of a nino this year is surprising to me? Warmed ocean ,north and south of the regions, may well 'bleed into' the regions and aid temps there pushing near nino data but will the atmosphere comply?

Let's see if we see any WWB's over the next few months.

Anything over 1.5 is considered strong. 2.0+ is unofficially considered super by the standards of most who watch and research it. The peak of this event was 2.3 on the trimonthlies and about 3.0 for the monthlies, so it definitely qualified as super.

[jai mitchell]

hard to say if the last El Nino was 'super'

is that is regard to all previous El Ninos or with regard to the new climate future that we have just now entered in?

[Csnavywx]

hard to say if the last El Nino was 'super'

is that is regard to all previous El Ninos or with regard to the new climate future that we have just now entered in?

Relative to all other historical Ninos, it really doesn't matter which objective measure you use, it stacked up right next to the 82/83 and 97/98 Ninos quite well, whether we're talking trade wind anomaly strength, precipitation indices, WWV (warm water volume), heat content, velocity potential anomalies, etc...

While the baseline is rising -- a 3.0C (Nino 3.4) and 1.8C (Nino 4) monthly figure is a Super Nino. The Nino 4 figure was off-the-charts extreme. It's hard to get much above 1.2-1.3 in that region because the water there is already extremely warm. It's true that it'll get easier to reach those levels as we move forward (and the number of those Super Ninos will probably increase), but right now, that's still Super Nino territory.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.2:

[Archimid]

Thanks Csnavywx. Those seem like great definitions for a super el niño. In that case by definition, the last el niño was indeed a super el niño. From that perspective I would say that the chances of another super el niño possibly one stronger than the last one relatively soon are high.

I mostly say that based on  my interpretation of NOAA multivariate ENSO index here :

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/


The most recent event was the third hottest by max temp.  If a significant part of this el niño was enhanced by global warming, then a bigger, global harming enhanced el niño might be on the way. Like during the 90's. 

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, through the week ending Jan 15 2017.  They indicate continuing neutral conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

The following weekly Nino data issued today by NOAA through the week centered on Jan 11 2017, indicates that the Nino 3.4 index has risen up to -0.3 and thus indicates neutral ENSO conditions.  This assessment of neutral ENSO conditions is supported by the four attached plots with the first two being issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 15 2017 for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, while the third image issued today by NOAA shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, unchanged, and the fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles, also largely unchanged.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1

[Sigmetnow]

Philip Klotzbach:  Approximately 70% of ensemble members from latest ECMWF model run calling for #ElNino by July.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/821001198765342721

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.6:

[Lord M Vader]

From TAO/TRITONs data back to March 1991 (e.g from 25 June 1989) I have checked all years that by this time at year emerged into an El Niño. This include 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2014. In addition, the failed development of El Niño in 1993 is also shown. Courtesy: NOAA. Due to the restrictions of 4 pics per post, the other pics are in the next post!

The first four pics are from Jan 16 by 1993, 1994, 1997 and 2002. The second post contains the situation from Jan 16 for the years 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2014.

[Lord M Vader]

The first pic in my former post is relating to 1993, just a typo error!

Here are the same pics for Jan in 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2014.

[Lord M Vader]

To conclude this, here is the same situation for Jan 2017. I continue to believe that we'll see the real deal in 2018/2019! And then also with another jump upward in the global temperature anomalies. Interestingly, most of the cold pool in the East Pac is gone while the majorty of the other years had cool conditions in the East Pac.

Finally, the monthly forecast form ECMWF hint about a possible WWB by the middle of February:

[Gray-Wolf]

+1 L.M.V.

Though NOAA might feel tempted to call one if background heat bleeds into the regions via storms etc?

[Csnavywx]

Left out 2015!



Started off similarly weak, but we know how that ended. As stated above, we've got a month or two to get the ball rolling. If no significant WWB events have shown up through March, I'd turn quite a bit more skeptical on a significant Nino developing this summer.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.3, which is in the ENSO neutral range:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +4.6: